ISCRAM 2013: A decision support system for effective use of probability forecasts

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Authors: Simone De Kleermaeker, Deltares
Jan Verkade, Deltares & Delft University of Technology

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  • ISCRAM 2011, Lisboa
  • ISCRAM 2011, Lisboa
  • ISCRAM 2011, Lisboa
  • ISCRAM 2011, Lisboa
  • ISCRAM 2013: A decision support system for effective use of probability forecasts

    1. 1. A decision support system for effective use of probability forecasts Simone De Kleermaeker, Deltares Jan Verkade, Deltares & Delft University of Technology
    2. 2. Setting the scene – forecasts for a river system River with varying water levels • Too high • Flood risk • Too low • Drought / irrigation • Cooling water • Shipping industry ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl 2 Uncertainties Effective use? Forecast water level Probability forecast
    3. 3. 3 % lead time status of area inundation property in area # people in area design level levee levee failure wl forecast police, firemen, ambulance status of levee (regional) emergency management water levels (local) water board levee patroller meteo model hydro forecaster hydro model meteo forecaster measures prevention measures control risk strategy P(flooding) Decision making and flood risk Static information Observations Models Forecasts Actions ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl
    4. 4. 4 property in area # people in area design level levee police, firemen, ambulance emergency management water levels water board levee patroller hydro forecaster meteo forecaster Decision making and flood risk Static information Observations Models Forecasts Actions meteo model hydro model status of levee water levels wl forecast lead time P(flooding) levee failure inundation measures prevention measures control risk status of area strategy ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl
    5. 5. 5 Outline • Explicit estimates of uncertainties in hydrological forecast Information Decision Action • But: Issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts • Increasingly difficult to extract relevant information from a forecast • Necessary but not sufficient for risk-based decision making  Prototype decision support system (DSS)  Pathway for further development InformationProbabilistic information Risk based decision • Increase awareness users and decision makers • Risk-based decision-making  Separate responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl
    6. 6. From forecast to decision 6 Time Waterlevel |-> Future Forecaster Decision maker ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl
    7. 7. From probabilistic forecast to decision 7 Time Waterlevel |-> Future Forecaster Decision maker ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl
    8. 8. Probabilistic water level forecast along a river 8 Time Waterlevel Along river 95 percentile 50 percentile 5 percentile ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl
    9. 9. 9 Decision Support System How can we make sense of this? Ask the right question! ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl
    10. 10. DSS - Should I stay or should I go? 10 Fixed location Pexce (levee) Design level levee Design level levee ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl
    11. 11. Risk based decision making Decision based on probability of consequences instead of water level Probability of event (P) versus Cost of measure (C) and Expected damage reduction (∆L) P ≥ C/∆L ⇒ More information is required! 11ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl
    12. 12. Pathway for further development Implementation in two distinctly different regions: • Floodplains of the Meuse River • Threat from river stage • Relative frequent flood plain inundation • Limited damage, but frequent risk based decision making 12 • Polders bordering Lake IJssel • Threat from the lake (levee breach) • Probability of water level -and- dike stability • Possibly large damage, but infrequent need for decisions lake ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl
    13. 13. 13 Wrap-up • Explicit estimates of uncertainties in hydrological forecast • Increase awareness users and decision makers • Risk-based decision-making  Separate responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker • But: Issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts • Increasingly difficult to extract relevant information from a forecast • Necessary but not sufficient for risk-based decision making Contact: Simone.DeKleermaeker@Deltares.nl  Prototype decision support system (DSS)  Pathway for further development ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl
    14. 14. DSS - Move cattle to higher ground? Fixed location 14 Inundation model 14ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl
    15. 15. DSS - How much cargo can I carry? 15 Fixed probability Fixed time/location Along river 90%Minim ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl
    16. 16. Risk based decision making - example 16 source: http://wim.usgs.gov/FIMI/ ISCRAM2013 Simone.DeKleermaeker@deltares.nl

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