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Ten Years

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public presentation at <a href="http://ecommmedia.com">EComm2008</a> by Jonathan Christensen, Skype. Posted by <a href="http://SkypeJournal.com">Skype Journal</a>

Published in: Technology, Business

Ten Years

  1. Jonathan Christensen GM Audio Video A Brief History of VoIP
  2. A long time ago…….. 1996-2001
  3. The Pioneers <ul><li>Vocaltec’s Internet Phone </li></ul><ul><li>Gateways: Clarent, NetSpeak, Nuera, Vocaltec, Sonus… Cisco </li></ul><ul><li>The Carriers: DeltaThree, ITXC, Level3 </li></ul><ul><li>New breed of internet Codecs - wideband </li></ul><ul><li>The use cases gel: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>End users: PC-PC “Ham radio” scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Carriers: site to site “tandem” trunking </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Some “mainstream” apps emerge </li></ul><ul><ul><li>NetMeeting (last updated in 1999 and still in action) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2 Stage dialing: 1 800 CALL-ATT </li></ul></ul>
  4. Tandem Switch Tandem Switch TDM Class 5 Switch Class 5 Switch
  5. VoIP Death of Distance Class 5 Switch TDM-IP Gateway Class 5 Switch TDM-IP Gateway
  6. Tandem Trunking <ul><li>Bandwidth efficiency (more compression, statistical multiplexing) </li></ul><ul><li>LEC - Avoid the expensive long haul lines </li></ul><ul><li>Incumbent LD providers could avoid termination fees at the local off-ramp because the trunk is IP.. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Its an unregulated “information service”.. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Arbitrage, arbitrage, arbitrage </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Oh yeah.. And inferior service.. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sometimes offered under “alternative” brands.. </li></ul></ul>
  7. Moving on.. 2001 Pulver, Vonage, and Consumer VoIP
  8. Consumer VoIP <ul><li>Pulver’s early inspiration </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Min-X, the IP voice minute exchange </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Free World Dialup (one port gateway) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Komodo and the first ATA </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Turns any perfectly good phone into an inferior IP handset </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cisco acquires Komodo and validates the market </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Vonage is born… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Voice over Broadband begins </li></ul></ul>
  9. VoBB Changes the Players / Power Structure…. <ul><li>Independent Vonage sets the pace early (with lots of cash) </li></ul><ul><li>Long distance players enter local service markets… </li></ul><ul><li>The MSOs respond -- with more Buzzwords and TLAs: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Triple Play” “NGN” “IMS” and the dreaded “Quadruple Play” </li></ul></ul>
  10. What Do Consumers Get?
  11. Great Savings? Really? And New Features?
  12. Another Foot in the Grave… <ul><li>Beginning of the end? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Incumbents match prices and features on TDM </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Land line telephony is cheap.. Still... Losing to mobile.. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commoditization is complete </li></ul></ul><ul><li>VoIP “export” networks are the biggest innovation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Send your ATA to India.. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Location independent (death of distance – again) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Smashing the geocentric numbering plan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Further deteriorating the old voice business </li></ul></ul>
  13. The Summer Revolution - 2003
  14. IM (therefore IP) IM VoIP Video Visual Sharing Rich Communications
  15. The Summer of Skype <ul><li>The stage was set.. The solution was 99% complete </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Robust IP audio stack </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multimedia PCs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Broadband penetration </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>P2P file sharing networks running at internet scale </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>NAT traversal techniques </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>IM networks.. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Skype simply closed the loop.. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>One application with the right formula </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Users loved it.. Industry was confounded.. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>By fall VoN there were 500K downloads </li></ul></ul>
  16. 276 Million Users Can’t Be Wrong <ul><li>Global appeal / reach </li></ul><ul><li>Reliable PSTN interconnect </li></ul><ul><li>Multitude of device options (PSP, N800, Cordless..) </li></ul><ul><li>Profitable .. </li></ul><ul><li>Enter the era of rich [PC based] Internet communications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Multi-modal communications (original SIP vision) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Real time video, Data, Presence, Text, Wideband Audio </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Smart endpoints, open platform… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Application innovation.. </li></ul></ul>
  17. What’s Next?
  18. Sorting the Mobile Mess <ul><li>Mobility is the last anchor to the old way </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fastest growth telecom service today </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Spectrum scarcity makes it a perfect walled garden </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The good old days again </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Closed networks.. Device lock-in.. Phone numbers with geographic bias.. Contracts.. YUCK !! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Finally.. The Internet goes mobile </li></ul><ul><ul><li>First successful auction - 22 MHz of “700 band” spectrum </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“Open Platform” conditions apply </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A new game begins.. </li></ul></ul>
  19. The next 10 years <ul><li>The Era of Rich Mobile Internet Communications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Multi-modal communications (original SIP vision) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Real time HD video, Data, Presence, Text, Wideband Audio </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Smart endpoints, open platform… Application innovation.. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fixed / Mobile Convergence – for real… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mash ups of web based communications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Freedom with mobility… </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Natural segmentation of competencies </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Network infrastructure (pipes) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Application innovation (developers) </li></ul></ul></ul>
  20. Questions?

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