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1
EU-FMD Open Session - Virtual Meeting - 11th February 2021
Socioeconomic impact
of FAST diseases on local communities
J....
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Outline of the presentation
● Definitions
○ FAST diseases and Communities
● What stages ar...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Definitions
● FAST diseases stand for Foot and Mouth Diseases And Similar
Transboundary di...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Why do we need to be worried about FAST diseases?
● The world can be divided into three ro...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
A country free of FAST diseases
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Infectious diseases
● A farmer has foot-and-mouth disease which he does not
declare and al...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Infectious diseases
● The farmer sells sheep to a local market which infect other
sheep
● ...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Infected Farm
16 sheep sold
Hexham Market
16 sheep sold
Hexham Market
184 sheep sold
Longt...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Longtown
Market
184 sheep sold
Northern
England
Northern
England
North-east
England
Northe...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
From: Mansley, Dunlop, Whiteside &
Smith (2003) Early dissemination of
foot-and-mouth dise...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Costs of major FMD outbreaks in previously free countries
12
Key: S.O.= Stamping out, Vacc...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
And the community in these countries?
● In a naïve population FAST diseases can spread qui...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
A country with a programme to control FAST diseases
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Countries with control programmes
● The countries with control programmes need to consider...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Producers and communities on the margins
Nutrition
Genetics
Parasites
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Decisions when a country is close to elimination
● Successful eradication campaigns for FA...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Changing directions
● Europe made the decision not to vaccinate against FMD in the
1980s b...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Current
Markets
New
Markets
Difference
Cost Benefit Analysis
(State Contingent Approach)
D...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Countries in transition
● Before a control programme begins there should be a strategy
for...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
A country with endemic FAST diseases
- cases of PPR and FMD
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
People affected by PPR
● It is estimated that 330 million of the
poorest people in Africa,...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Morbidity and mortality caused by PPR
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Household impacts from PPR (during an outbreak)
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
National and global estimates
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Socioeconomic impact
● FMD has the most serious impact on the developed livestock
industry...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
FMD – Livelihood and income impacts
● Reduce milk yield in cattle with implication food an...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Mortality and morbidity impacts of FMD during an outbreak
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
FMD impacts at farm and herd level
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Social impacts – Mongolia (Limon et al, 2020)
● Overall, 86/112 herders reported not drink...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
National and global impacts of FMD
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
PPR and FMD
● Estimates are emerging in the literature on the importance of
PPR and FMD to...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Improving the use of socio-economic data
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
We need a step change for estimation of animal health burden
● A stronger focus on the hea...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
How much
are we
losing
How much are
we spending
Absolute burden
due to each disease
Relati...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Animal health loss envelope
Population model
Enterprise Budget Now
Output
Variable Costs
F...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Building block - attribution
Dairy Systems
No attribution
Health loss envelope
No attribut...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Funders, partners, collaborators
eufmdvirtual.com
Final Session – 16 February 2021
EuFMD / Open Session
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
References
Baluka, S.A., 2016. Economic effects of foot and mouth disease outbreaks along ...
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
References continued
Knight-Jones, T.D.J., Rushton, J., 2013.The economic impacts of foot ...
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Socioeconomic impact of FAST diseases on local communities

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J. Rushton

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Socioeconomic impact of FAST diseases on local communities

  1. 1. 1 EU-FMD Open Session - Virtual Meeting - 11th February 2021 Socioeconomic impact of FAST diseases on local communities J. Rushton1, W. T. Jemberu2, M. Bruce3 j.rushton@liverpool.ac.uk 1University of Liverpool, UK, 2ILRI, Ethiopia, 3Murdoch University, Australia All authors work on the Global Burden of Animal Diseases https://animalhealthmetrics.org
  2. 2. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Outline of the presentation ● Definitions ○ FAST diseases and Communities ● What stages are FAST diseases important and which communities are affected? ○ Stages of control and the PCP ● How do we improve impact assessment for FAST diseases and animal health more generally? ○ Focus of current efforts
  3. 3. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Definitions ● FAST diseases stand for Foot and Mouth Diseases And Similar Transboundary diseases in EU FMD terminology ○ This groups of disease are simply referred as transboundary animal diseases (TADs) in general animal health literature ● Communities ○ a group of people living in the same place or having a particular characteristic in common or common ownership
  4. 4. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Why do we need to be worried about FAST diseases? ● The world can be divided into three rough categories ○ Countries with no FAST diseases and consider them to be exotic ○ Countries that have ongoing programmes to eliminate FAST diseases ○ Countries with endemic FAST diseases ● There is a general assumption that if we manage FAST diseases other health problems will be managed
  5. 5. https://animalhealthmetrics.org
  6. 6. https://animalhealthmetrics.org A country free of FAST diseases
  7. 7. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Infectious diseases ● A farmer has foot-and-mouth disease which he does not declare and allows it to remain on his farm ● Pigs are infected and sheep also get infected ● Some pigs are sent to a slaughterhouse and a vet detects lesions on the animals and suspects FMD ● The veterinary services are unsure what to do 7
  8. 8. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Infectious diseases ● The farmer sells sheep to a local market which infect other sheep ● These sheep are then moved to a market with international links ● The market sends sheep to three different countries as well as to all parts of the same country ● Poor management of infectious disease has negative externalities 8
  9. 9. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Infected Farm 16 sheep sold Hexham Market 16 sheep sold Hexham Market 184 sheep sold Longtown Market 184 sheep sold From: Mansley, Dunlop, Whiteside & Smith (2003) Early dissemination of foot-and-mouth disease virus through sheep marketing in February 2001 Vet Rec 153 pp 43- 50
  10. 10. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Longtown Market 184 sheep sold Northern England Northern England North-east England Northern England North-west England Northern Ireland France Wales Central west England South-west England Central west England Central west England From: Mansley, Dunlop, Whiteside & Smith (2003) Early dissemination of foot-and-mouth disease virus through sheep marketing in February 2001 Vet Rec 153 pp 43-50
  11. 11. https://animalhealthmetrics.org From: Mansley, Dunlop, Whiteside & Smith (2003) Early dissemination of foot-and-mouth disease virus through sheep marketing in February 2001 Vet Rec 153 pp 43-50
  12. 12. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Costs of major FMD outbreaks in previously free countries 12 Key: S.O.= Stamping out, Vacc = Vaccination. N/A = Data not available. Sources: 1 FAO. 2 Personal Communication F. Muzio 3Muroga, N. et al., 2011. 4 Yonhap News Agency
  13. 13. https://animalhealthmetrics.org And the community in these countries? ● In a naïve population FAST diseases can spread quickly if their entry coincides with significant animal movement ● The ownership of the disease management is a combination of the government and the livestock industry ○ Levels of which are laid down in legislation ● The “local” community is the whole of society ● It is in everyone’s interests to keep FAST diseases out, and when they enter to detect and eliminate them quickly
  14. 14. https://animalhealthmetrics.org A country with a programme to control FAST diseases
  15. 15. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Countries with control programmes ● The countries with control programmes need to consider opportunity costs of ignoring other animal health problems ● Some producers do not keep the species that are affected by the disease ○ HPAI control paid no attention to other species or animal health problems ● Some producers have little risk of getting the disease ○ Altiplano in South America has negatable risk of FMD
  16. 16. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Producers and communities on the margins Nutrition Genetics Parasites
  17. 17. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Decisions when a country is close to elimination ● Successful eradication campaigns for FAST diseases create dilemmas ● When do you change from a strategy of activities designed to eliminate disease to one of keeping disease out, detecting and eliminating disease when it enters? ● Decisions are difficult if the disease control activities have become institutionalized ○ The “local” community for the disease has become the people who control its presence (or absence)
  18. 18. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Changing directions ● Europe made the decision not to vaccinate against FMD in the 1980s based on epidemiological and economic models of the predicted outcomes ● Uruguay has recently undergone a similar analysis (Perry et al 2020) ● This involved determining how the veterinary services would change, what the costs of that change were and how this impacted on the risks of entry of disease
  19. 19. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Current Markets New Markets Difference Cost Benefit Analysis (State Contingent Approach) Discount rate Timings of costs and benefits Probabilities of “states” Discussions and analysis with MGAP Discussions and analysis with INAC Cost Analysis with & without FMD NPV Expected values Market analysis with & without FMD Current Strategy New Strategies Difference Perry et al, 2020
  20. 20. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Countries in transition ● Before a control programme begins there should be a strategy for transitions as it moves towards pathogen elimination ● This requires a mix of identifying the people and institutions that will be affected by the transition ○ The community ● And it is likely that the community most affected by these transitions will be a mix of farmers, veterinary professionals and the pharmaceutical companies
  21. 21. https://animalhealthmetrics.org A country with endemic FAST diseases - cases of PPR and FMD
  22. 22. https://animalhealthmetrics.org People affected by PPR ● It is estimated that 330 million of the poorest people in Africa, the Middle East and Asia keep livestock, including small ruminants. ● Sheep and goats play an important role in the livelihoods and food security of poor families and contribute to national economic development.
  23. 23. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Morbidity and mortality caused by PPR
  24. 24. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Household impacts from PPR (during an outbreak)
  25. 25. https://animalhealthmetrics.org National and global estimates
  26. 26. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Socioeconomic impact ● FMD has the most serious impact on the developed livestock industry (dairy and swine farms) both due to production loss but importantly due trade impact ● The impact of FMD on smallholder is sometimes contested because of its low morality and milder nature of the disease in indigenous breeds ● Available field estimate indicated as high as > 10% household income loss in smallholders ● But impact may depend on the disease incidence, level of dependency on aspects of production most affected by FMD and the positive, and negative, impact of control measures (Knight-jones et al., 2017)
  27. 27. https://animalhealthmetrics.org FMD – Livelihood and income impacts ● Reduce milk yield in cattle with implication food and nutrition implication on communities dependent on milk as staple diet as the case of pastoral system in East Africa (Bayissa et al, 2011 (Ethiopia) , Brassa et al., 2008 (S.Sudan) Lyons et al., 2015 (Kenya)) ● Reduce draft power in crop-livestock mixed system who dependent of cattle and buffalo for crop production with implication or reduced food production in east African highlands and south and south east Asia (Jemberu et al., 2014 (Ethiopia), Shankar et al, 2012 (Cambodia)) ● Change herd structure insidiously with long term effect on herd productivity (Rushton, 2008 (Bolivia))
  28. 28. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Mortality and morbidity impacts of FMD during an outbreak
  29. 29. https://animalhealthmetrics.org FMD impacts at farm and herd level
  30. 30. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Social impacts – Mongolia (Limon et al, 2020) ● Overall, 86/112 herders reported not drinking milk for a period of time and 38/112 reduced their meat consumption. ● Furthermore, 55 herders (49.1%) had to borrow money to buy food, medicines and/ or pay bills or bank loans. ● The FMD outbreaks combined with current control measures have negatively impacted herders’ livelihoods (including herders with and without cases of FMD) which are likely to reduce stakeholder advocacy.
  31. 31. https://animalhealthmetrics.org National and global impacts of FMD
  32. 32. https://animalhealthmetrics.org PPR and FMD ● Estimates are emerging in the literature on the importance of PPR and FMD to communities ● These tend to focus on the impact of outbreaks on people and households ● And these are being drawn on to generate information on the losses incurred by the presence of this disease in the wider society ● More work is required to refine these estimates
  33. 33. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Improving the use of socio-economic data
  34. 34. https://animalhealthmetrics.org We need a step change for estimation of animal health burden ● A stronger focus on the health and welfare of animals to estimate the the burden of infectious, non-infectious causes and accidents and injury ● A system that generates updates on animal health assessments and the relative and absolute contribute of FAST diseases ● That system will improve understanding of the impact of animal health resources for livestock keepers
  35. 35. https://animalhealthmetrics.org How much are we losing How much are we spending Absolute burden due to each disease Relative burden compared to total burden Who across society is affected Attribution by disease, health problem and accidents Impact across the economy Livestock populations Their biomass Economic investment in animals and infrastructure Animal Health Loss Envelope GBADs - Analytical structure Rushton et al forthcoming
  36. 36. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Animal health loss envelope Population model Enterprise Budget Now Output Variable Costs Fixed Costs Enterprise Budget “Utopia” Output Variable Costs Fixed Costs Animal Health Loss Envelope Production loss & Expenditure Difference Attribution
  37. 37. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Building block - attribution Dairy Systems No attribution Health loss envelope No attribution FMD HS CBPP Anthrax No attribution FMD HS CBPP Anthrax Mastistis Lameness Liver Fluke Illustrative
  38. 38. https://animalhealthmetrics.org Funders, partners, collaborators
  39. 39. eufmdvirtual.com Final Session – 16 February 2021 EuFMD / Open Session
  40. 40. https://animalhealthmetrics.org References Baluka, S.A., 2016. Economic effects of foot and mouth disease outbreaks along the cattle marketing chain in Uganda, Veterinary World, 9(6): 544-553. Barasa, M., Catley, A., Machuchu, D., Laqua, H., Puot, E., Tap Kot, D., Ikiror, D., 2008. Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccination in South Sudan: Benefit–Cost Analysis and Livelihoods Impact. Transbound. Emerg. Dis. 55, 339-351. Bardhan, D., Kumar, S., Anandsekaran, G., Chaudhury, J.K., Meraj, M. Singh, R.K., Verma, M.R., Kumar, D., (Kumar, N., Ahmed Lone, S., Mishra, V., Mohanty, B.S., Korade, N., De, U.K., 2017. The economic impact of peste des petits ruminants in India. Rev. Sci. Tech., 36 (1), 245-263 Bayissa, B., Ayelet, G., Kyule, M., Jibril, Y., Gelaye, E., 2011. Study on seroprevalence, risk factors, and economic impact of foot-and- mouth disease in Borena pastoral and agro-pastoral system, southern Ethiopia. Trop. Anim. Health Prod. 43, 759-766 Jemberu, W.T., Mourits, M.C.M., Woldehanna, T., Hogeveen, H., 2014. Economic impact of foot and mouth disease outbreaks on smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 116, 26-36. Jemberu, W.T., Mourits, M., Rushton, J., Hogeveen, H. 2016. Cost-benefit analysis of foot and mouth disease control in Ethiopia. Prev Vet Med., 15;132:67-82. Jibat, T., Admassu, B., Rufael, T., Baumann, M.P.O., Pötzsch, C.J., 2013. Impacts of foot-and-mouth disease on livelihoods in the Borena Plateau of Ethiopia. Pastoralism: Research, Policy and Practice, 3, 1-11. Jones, B.A., Rich, K.M., Mariner, J.C., Anderson, J., Jeggo, M., Thevasagayam, S., Cai, Y., Peters, A.R., Roeder, P., 2016. The economic impact of eradicating peste des petits ruminants: a benefit-cost analysis. PLoS One 11, 1–18.. Knight-Jones, T.D.J., McLaws, M., Rushton, J., 2017 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Impact on Smallholders - What Do We Know, What Don't We Know and How Can We Find Out More? Transbound Emerg Dis;64(4):1079-1094
  41. 41. https://animalhealthmetrics.org References continued Knight-Jones, T.D.J., Rushton, J., 2013.The economic impacts of foot and mouth disease – What are they, how big are they and where do they occur? Prev. Vet. Med. 112, 161-173 Limon. G., Ulziibat, G., Sandag, B., Dorj, S., Purevtseren, D., Khishgee, B., Basan, G., Bandi, T., Ruuragch, S., Bruce, M., Rushton, J., Beard, P.M., Lyon, N.A., 2020. Socio-economic impact of Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreaks and control measures: An analysis of Mongolian outbreaks in 2017. Transbound Emerg Dis. 67:2034–2049 Lyons, N.A., Alexander, N., Stӓrk, K.D.C., Dulu, T.D., Rushton, J., Fine, P.E.M., 2015. Impact of foot-and-mouth disease on mastitis and culling on a large-scale dairy farm in Kenya. BMC Veterinary Research (2015) 46:41 Mansley, L.M., Dunlop, P.J., Whiteside, S.M., Smith, R.G.H., 2003. Early dissemination of foot-and-mouth disease virus through sheep marketing in February 2001 Vet Rec 153 pp 43-50 Njeumi, F., Bailey, D., Jacques Soula, J., Diop, B., Tekola, B.G., 2020. Eradicating the Scourge of Peste Des Petits Ruminants from the World. Viruses 12, 313. OIE-FAO, 2012. The Global Foot and Mouth Disease Control Strategy: Strengthening Animal Health Systems through Improved Control of Major Diseases. Perry, B., Rich, K.M., Rojas, H., Romero, J., Adamson, D., Bervejillo, J.E., Fernandez, F., Pereira, A., Pérez, L., Reich, F., Sarno, R., Vitale, E., Stanham, F., Rushton, J. 2020. Integrating the Technical, Risk Management and Economic Implications of Animal Disease Control to Advise Policy Change: The Example of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control in Uruguay. EcoHealth 17, 381–387 (2020). Rushton, J. 2008. Economic aspects of foot and mouth disease in Bolivia. Rev Sci Tech.,27(3):759-69. Shankar, B., Morzaria, S., Fiorucci, A., Hak, M., 2012. Animal disease and livestock-keeper livelihoods in Southern Cambodia. Int. Soc. Dev. Rev. 34, 39-63. Tadesse, B., Tesfahun, A., Molla, W., Demisse, E., Jemberu, W.T. 2020., Foot and mouth disease outbreak investigation and estimation of its economic impact in selected districts in northwest Ethiopia. Vet Med Sci.6:122–132.

J. Rushton

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