Before we start there is a nice article on In world business models and second life. http://dusanwriter.com/index.php/2009/07/13/in-world-business-models-and-second-life/ to get inspired: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2woYgbffXo&feature=player_embedded#t=360 ---- slide1: Virtual Worlds are convergence of social networking, online games and simulation
Well, let’s put this into perspective. I think that what is interesting and relevant here is that several economic historians had actually predicted the crisis that we are coming out of now. What we are seeing is a pattern repeating itself. As in the late 18 th and 19 th Centuries there was a technological innovation that led to a period first of transformation as the innovation began to be diffused, then a period of rationalization leading to an imbalance, and then to a financial crisis coming around 40 years after the innovation. However, in the past, these financial crises have then led to periods of great economic development – industrial revolutions, in which industry profitability has been restored through a redistribution of the value-added between capital and labor. But more importantly, these crises filtered out those organizations that could not adapt and change to stay competitive in the new industrial environment. Similar to what we experienced with the innovation of the steam engine in the late 18 th C and the internal combustion engine and electric motor in the late 19 th C, there was a subsequent crisis about due to various forces converging. We saw that as these basic innovations were diffused, people stopped investing in the existing industrial structure and instead focused on investing in a new generation of competitive machinery, which then led to an industrial revolution in both cases as the innovations became embedded in society. At the same time, the crisis served to release the negative pressure that had been built up as well as to restore industry profitability through the redistribution of value-added between capital and labor. Experiencing now some economic historians claim to be due to the innovation of the microprocessor and microelectronics in the 1970s. Draw on board about value-added. Why does it take 40 years? And one of the most important things that is of interest for today’s discussion is that in one of the factors facilitating these new phases of economic growth following the crisis has been that a generation of people that had never experienced life without the innovation starts to enter the workforce – thus they are not restricted by old ways of thinking. (Next slide) Other notes Notes from article - Schön, L, Economic Crises and Restructuring in History A crisis is connected with changes in the long term or structural conditions built up during a rather long period of time and effects behavior for a long time to come Transformation – changes in industrial structure – resources are reallocated between industries and diffusion of basic innovations with industry that provides new bases for such reallocation Rationalization – concentration of resources to most productive units within the branches and measures to increase efficiency in different lines of production Shifts between transformation and rationalization have occurred with considerable regularity in structural cycle of 40 years – 25 years on transformation, and 15 years on rationalization. Crises been part of this cycle as well International crisis in 1840s – How go from crisis to expansion quickly – went quite rapidly in 1930s for Sweden – but Sweden in opposite corner in 1970s 1850s – upswing of industrial and infrastructural investments was linked to breakthrough of mechanized factories in Sweden, modernization of steel processes and construction of railways 1930s and more marked after WWII late 1940s - expansion of electrification and diffusion of automobiles, processing of electrosteel to small motors in handicraft and household – combination with motorcar – new styles in living and consumption Waves of investments around development of an infrastructure from basic innovation of preceding cycle mid 1970s – microprocessor – knowledge and information in production of goods and services It is not the basic innovation itself – but the diffusion of the innovation that counts! When invented, then expensive to implement, have a narrow range of application – Following generalization – A structural crisis (that has been preceded by an early development of basic innovations) has put an end to old directions of investments mainly in rationalization of existing industrial structure and given rise to investments in ne and devt of new tech that after one decade (the length of the classical Juglar cycle of machinery investments) has created a new generation of economically competitive machinery Reallocation of labor occurs approx 15-30 years after the structural crisis Development of markets – distribution of value added between capital and labour is one mirror of these changes Diffusion of innovations leads to expansion of markets and arrival of new competitors – Structural crises – release negative pressure and restored profitability in industry – get rid of those who not competitive
RT: the 3D internet characterized by …. (next slide)
What are the 5 phases of a Hype Cycle? 1. &quot;Technology Trigger&quot; The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the &quot;technology trigger&quot; or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest. 2. &quot;Peak of Inflated Expectations&quot; In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures. 3. &quot;Trough of Disillusionment&quot; Technologies enter the &quot;trough of disillusionment&quot; because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology. 4. &quot;Slope of Enlightenment&quot; Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the &quot;slope of enlightenment&quot; and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology. 5. &quot;Plateau of Productivity&quot; A technology reaches the &quot;plateau of productivity&quot; as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
RT: traditional leadership further challenged as we move to a world of web 3.0 or the immersive internet… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ahqjBeknT0
In many ways, education hasn’t changed much since students sat at the feet of Socrates more than two millenniums ago. Learners still gather each autumn at colleges to listen to and be questioned by professors. But the Internet has caused sudden shifts in other industries, from the way people read news to the way they buy music or plan travel. Might higher education be nearing such a jolt? Aside from the massive dent put in their endowments by Wall Street’s woes, colleges and universities mostly have been conducting business as usual. Costs have soared compared with general inflation, but students still flock to classes. Many have theorized that the Internet could give education a rude shock. Recently, an opinion piece by Zephyr Teachout, a law professor at Fordham University in New York who once served as an Internet organizer for presidential candidate Howard Dean, put the possibility in dramatic terms. “ Students starting school this year may be part of the last generation for which ‘going to college’ means packing up, getting a dorm room, and listening to tenured professors,” she wrote in The Washington Post. “Undergraduate education is on the verge of a radical reordering. Colleges, like newspapers, will be torn apart by new ways of sharing information enabled by the Internet.” She’s not the first to see newspapers moving from print to online and wonder whether something similar could happen to colleges. Online newspaper readers tend to seek out individual stories, not what papers as a whole have to say. Might finding the right class online become more important than which institution was offering it? What happens if colleges or even specialized online-only education companies provide essentially the same Economics 101 course? Does geography cease to matter and do low-cost providers win out? Some think it could happen, perhaps sooner than expected. “Three years ago nobody thought the newspaper industry was going to collapse,” says Kevin Carey, policy director of Education Sector, an independent education think tank in Washington, D.C. Today, a college education is more than twice as expensive as it was in the early 1990s, even after adjusting for inflation. “ It’s getting worse all the time. There’s no end in sight,” Mr. Carey says. Colleges “have set the bar pretty low for competitors” through a lack of competition, he says. At the same time, many potential students are being underserved. “We need more institutions that are good at serving working students, immigrant students, low-income students, students who are basically going to college because they want to get a credential and have a career,” he says. Carey points to the fledgling company Straighterline.com, which offers college courses in subjects from algebra to business statistics, English composition, and accounting. Students can take as many courses as they want for $99 per month, the company’s website says. The price includes 10 hours each month of one-on-one live support and a course adviser. Passing courses results in “real college credit” from one of several colleges affiliated with the program. About 30 percent of the undergraduate credits given each year at US colleges and universities derive from only 20 or 30 introductory classes. It seems logical, then, that these could be turned into “commodities” sold at the lowest price online. “ Econ 101 for $99 is online, today. 201 and 301 will come,” Carey writes in an essay, “College for $99 a Month,” in Washington Monthly. “The Internet doesn’t treat middlemen kindly.” He describes an unemployed woman in Chicago who was able to complete four college courses for less than $200 on Straighterline.com. The same courses would have cost $2,700 at a local university. Of course, colleges and universities have discovered online learning themselves. They already offer thousands of online courses to their registered students. According to one recent survey, nearly 4 million college students, more than 20 percent of all students, have taken at least one online course. But colleges don’t generally offer a lower price for online courses. The reason is that the courses actually take more work to prepare and teach than similar classroom courses, says Janet Poley, president of the American Distance Education Consortium in Lincoln, Neb. Members of the consortium, made up of public universities and community colleges, find that they often must provide extra resources to faculty who are preparing to teach online for the first time, such as help from a graduate assistant or a lighter teaching load, she says. [ Editor’s note : The original version mischaracterized the role of the consortium .] Online learning at these institutions“has been growing very fast,” Dr. Poley says. Students appreciate the flexibility to be able to take courses whenever they want, allowing them to keep their jobs or avoid paying baby sitters or commuting to campus as often. What’s holding back more online courses, she says, is the lack of good broadband Internet options in some places, especially rural areas. What may be evolving, Poley says, is a “home institution model,” in which students take introductory courses online but come on campus for work in their major field and for graduate study. “ I don’t really care whether there are students on campus or not,” she says. But “I think there will still be folks who like to be in a community with others while they are learning.” Some students enjoy athletics and other on-campus activities, she says. “I don’t think people are ready to give that up.” Online courses, the latest form of distance learning, have had a reputation for being of lower quality than on-campus work, Carey says – something advertised in the back pages of a magazine. But that may be out of date. Online education is continually improving, he says. “It’s better now than it was 10 years ago.” A study of 12 years of online teaching by SRI International on behalf of the US Department of Education concluded earlier this year that “On average, students in online learning conditions performed better than those receiving face-to-face instruction.” What’s more, this wasn’t true only of lower-level courses. “Online learning appeared to be an effective option for both undergraduates … and for graduate students and professionals … in a wide range of academic and professional studies,” the study said. The Obama administration has talked in general terms about online education as part of a grand plan to give the US the highest proportion of college-educated citizens in the world by 2020. The plan, when announced next year, could include funds to develop more online course materials and make them freely available. If other online education start-ups like Straighterline.com do appear, they won’t be looking for “18-year-olds from suburban high schools who want to go to Harvard,” Carey says. Elite schools will always offer other reasons to attend, such as making social connections. “Exclusivity never goes out of style,” he says. Professor Teachout is reminded of the 19th century, when wealthy Americans sent their children off to Europe to absorb its cultural treasures on a so-called Grand Tour. “I can imagine the off-line, brick-and-mortar, elegant, beautiful MIT experience becoming the Grand Tour” of tomorrow, she says in an interview. Reaction to her article has been strong and varied. Some, including her father, also a law professor, have said, “This is horrible. This is the end of the world,” she says. Those she calls “techno-Utopians” have said, “This is fantastic!” An online learning experience for the self-motivated, organized person could be “extraordinary,” she says. And we’ve only scratched the surface. “The totally free online university that is stitched together from MIT-quality professors is going to happen very soon.” Others remain skeptical. “ I do question whether things are really as dire as she says, and whether we’re moving toward a model where the online [courses] will almost completely displace the classroom,” says Dan Colman, associate dean and director of continuing studies at Stanford University in California. He also has founded openculture.com, a website that points visitors to free educational courses online. “ I think there could be a day when a lot … could be done online, but I don’t think it’s in 20 years. I think it’s further out.”
RT: We are already beginning to see dramatic changes in several professions such as architecture and fashion.
TEDx-Real value through VWs-Teigland
Leveraging Virtual Worlds for Real World Results Dr. Robin Teigland, aka Karinda Rhode in SL Stockholm School of Economics www.knowledgenetworking.org www.slideshare.net/eteigland www.nordicworlds.net April 2010
History tends to repeat itself…. Innovation, financial crisis, industrial revolution, … Steam engine Internal combustion engine Microelectronics Late 18 th C Late 19 th C Late 20 th C Schön 2008 Third industrial revolution?
Building skills in virtual environments <ul><li>My CV </li></ul><ul><li>Leading a virtual team of 30 individuals from across the globe </li></ul><ul><li>Creating and successfully executing strategies under pressure </li></ul><ul><li>Managing cross-cultural conflict without face-to-face communication </li></ul>Teigland 2010
Here comes the Immersive Internet O’Driscoll 2009
Moving out of the Gartner hype cycle trough? Virtual Worlds today?
“ Clearly if social activity migrates to synthetic worlds, economic activity will go there as well.” Castranova http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ahqjBeknT0 <ul><li>USD 3 bln in virtual goods sales in 2009, to grow to USD 12 bln in 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>Swedish government granted b ank license to Mind Bank in 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>USD 330,000 for virtual space station in 2010 </li></ul>
Learning in VWs Learning virtual teaming skills through experience Mahaley & Teigland 2010 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8XPmp0qGyg
The last generation to “attend” college? http://features.csmonitor.com/innovation/2009/10/15/the-future-of-college-may-be-virtual/
Creating/Innovating in VWs Giovacchini et al. 2009 Developing a service with users from across the globe
Organizing in VWs http://slpeacetrain.org/ Collaborating with like-minded individuals to pursue a vision Teigland 2010 http://www.flickr.com/photos/gwenette/4178487306/in/pool-peacefest
The rise of Avapreneurs and Born Virtuals? <ul><li>Leveraging microemployees and pro-ams </li></ul><ul><li>Challenging multinational corporations’ traditional resource advantage </li></ul>www.slentre.com/second-life-style-photolife-for-second-life/ Teigland 2010, Frölunde 2010
Which professions and industries will not be revolutionized?
From the mobility of goods to the mobility of financial capital to … ...the “mobility” of labor? Teigland 2010
Interested in learning more about Virtual Worlds?
Thanks and see you in world! Karinda Rhode aka Robin Teigland [email_address] www.knowledgenetworking.org www.slideshare.net/eteigland Photo: Lindholm, Metro