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Cereal Production and Technical Change in Ethiopia


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IFPRI-ESSP2 Conference
October 22-24, 2009

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Cereal Production and Technical Change in Ethiopia

  1. 1. Cereal Production and Technical Change in Ethiopia Alejandro Nin-Pratt, Binxing Yu, José Funes and Sinafikeh Asrat Presented by John Hoddinott on behalf of Alejandro Nin-Pratt Paper prepared for the IFPRI – ESSP2 conference Addis Ababa, October 22-24, 2009 Wednesday, November 04, 2009
  2. 2. Introduction • Increasing yields is critical for sustaining output growth in Ethiopian agriculture. • Improved agricultural technologies are critical for yield growth • Given this, this presentation focuses on two questions: – What factors assist, or inhibit , the adoption of these technologies – What are the consequences of their adoption for yields • In developing this work, we draw on very rich data, the Agricultural Sample Survey (AgSS), nationally representative data made available to the research team by the Central Statistical Agency Page 2
  3. 3. ADOPTION Page 3
  4. 4. Trends in the use of fertilizer and improved seeds Area (1000 ha) sown to barley, maize, sorghum, teff and wheat Page 4
  5. 5. Page 5
  6. 6. What factors are associated with the adoption of fertilizer and improved seeds at the plot level? • Pool data across four years and use logit estimation model to plot level outcomes • Two outcomes – Fertilizer is applied to this plot (=1 if yes, 0 otherwise) – Fertilizer and improved seeds are applied to this plot (=1 if yes, 0 otherwise) • Factors – Time trend (captures secular factors that affect adoption) – Number of oxen available to the plot holder – Suitability of the area for production of the crop grown on the plot (wereda-level aggregate) – Population density per square kilometer (wereda-level aggregate) – All-weather road density in meters per square kilometer (wereda-level aggregate) – Holder used extension services – Holder used credit Page 6
  7. 7. Marginal effects of different variables on the probability of adopting fertilizer 0.45 0.4 Year 0.35 Oxen 0.3 Suitability 0.25 Population density 0.2 All-weather road density 0.15 Extension 0.1 Credit 0.05 Improved seed 0 -0.05 Maize Teff Wheat Page 7
  8. 8. Marginal effects of different variables on the probability of adopting fertilizer and improved seeds 0.2 0.15 Year Oxen 0.1 Suitability Population density 0.05 All-weather road density Extension 0 Credit Maize Wheat -0.05 Page 8
  9. 9. IMPACT Page 9
  10. 10. Average cereal yields obtained using different combination of inputs (tons) Fertilizer & local seed Improved seed no fertilizer Improved seed and fertilizer Local seed no fertilizer 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2003 2004 2006 2007 Page 10
  11. 11. Difference in yield obtained by holders with access to extension and credit Disaggregated by adopters and non-adopters of modern inputs 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 Adopters Non-adopters Adopters Non-adopters Extension Credit Only differences shown in red are statistically significant Page 11
  12. 12. Summary • Based on these preliminary results: – Access to modern crop technologies are “tightly wedded” to access to extension services – Yield improvements are the outcome of a package deal, where the package includes fertilizers and seeds and extension services • Future work; – Use more data rounds – Increase sophistication of the empirical analysis: Examine production frontiers, technical efficiency, changes in total factor productivity – “Unpack” the package nature of the drivers of yield improvements Page 12