Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Aspirations and Well-being in Rural Ethiopia


Published on

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). Conference on "Towards what works in Rural Development in Ethiopia: Evidence on the Impact of Investments and Policies". December 13, 2013. Hilton Hotel, Addis Ababa.

Published in: Travel, Business
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Aspirations and Well-being in Rural Ethiopia

  1. 1. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE Aspirations and Well-being in Rural Ethiopia Tanguy Bernard1, Stefan Dercon2, Kate Orkin3, and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse1 1International Food Policy Research Institute, 2 University of Oxford, 3 University of Cambridge Towards what works in rural development in Ethiopia: Evidence on the impact of investments and policies December 13th, 2013 Hilton Hotel, Addis Ababa 1
  2. 2. Outline     Motivation Elements of the aspirations framework Aspirations project Field experiment – design and findings 16/12/2013 2
  3. 3. Motivation – why aspirations  Conceptual – ‘opportunities’  Empirical – Why do the poor not ‘invest’?  Ethiopians and fatalism?  Focus 1 - ‘external circumstances’ and ‘opportunities’.  Low returns to investments;  Unexploited opportunities due to lack of information or knowledge;  Social constraints;  Focus 2 - constraints associated with the manifested attributes of decision makers  Identity issues: sense of self;  Psychological issues: impatience, commitment, and psychological barriers Aspirations failure perspective 16/12/2013 3
  4. 4. Elements of the Aspirations Perspective  Aspirations:  A desire or an ambition to achieve something  An aim and implied effort to reach it  A set of future-regarding preferences  Related concepts  Economics : Satisficing  Psychology : Self-efficacy, locus of control  Anthropology : Aspiration failures  Common elements  Goals and aspirations are important determinants of success;  Evolution through time in response to circumstances;  Role of social comparisons and learning from relevant others, An individual-level yet culturally (collectively) determined attribute  towards exploration of individual-group symbiosis 16/12/2013 4
  5. 5. Elements of the Aspirations Perspective What are Aspirations?  Aspirations have two distinctive aspects: • • Future-oriented - are goals that can only be satisfied at some future time (differ from immediate gratifications); Motivators - are goals individuals are willing, in principle, to invest time, effort or money in to attain (different from idle daydreams and wishes) Note: the ‘willingness to invest’ is ‘potential’, or ‘conditional’  Aspirations and expectations – preference vs. beliefs; 16/12/2013 5
  6. 6. Elements of the Aspirations Perspective Why are aspirations important/useful? Aspirations (or the capacity to aspire):  Reflect bounded rationality;  Are socially determined (social interaction);  Are distributed unevenly within communities.  Condition individual behaviour and well-being  Useful device in analysing and/or addressing poverty 16/12/2013 6
  7. 7. Conceptual Schema 16/12/2013 7
  8. 8. The “Aspirations” project Step 1 – correlates of aspiration-related concepts Step 2 – test and validate a measurement strategy Step 3 – assess validity of the “aspiration window” hypothesis  An experiment  Exogenous shock to aspirations: Mini-documentaries of local success stories screened to randomly selected individuals. Placebo: local TV show.  3 rounds of data • Baseline pre-treatment (Sept-Dec 2010) • Aspirations retest immediately after treatment • Follow-up (Mar-May 2011) 16/12/2013 8
  9. 9. On going experiment 16/12/2013 9
  10. 10. Observations    "Weak" treatment, but:  Documentaries affected aspirations, expectations, expenditure on children’s schooling, time allocation, savings behaviour, and hypothetical loan demand, perceptions more than the placebo even 6 months after treatment;  Direct and, even more visible, indirect (group) effects are detected – more of an aspiration window story rather than a role model one;  It is not obvious why some effects are direct (savings) while others are indirect (time allocation); Further analysis; Expanding coverage – Malawi, Pakistan via IFPRI; 16/12/2013 10
  11. 11. 16/12/2013 11