Source for data is the World BankTRENDS IN TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL IN COLOMBIA:In recent years, rainy seasons have been occurring earlier for central Columbia than 25 years ago. For the period of 1961-1990, annual precipitation has varied significantly, between -4 and +6 percent. For the period of 1995–2005 a relative precipitation increase of 5 percent from December to February is noted.Positive tendency for intense rainfall events and consecutive dry days.Between 1990 and 2000, an 82 percent reduction in glaciers has been observed, showing a linear withdrawal of the ice of 10-15 m, yearly. Under current climate trends, glaciers located in Colombia will disappear completely within the next 100 years.Increasing trends of daily mean and minimum temperature are noted for the past 30–40 years. Temperature has increased on the order of 1°C in the last 20 years.TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL IN MALAWI:As year-to-year variability in rainfall is very high in Malawi, long-term trends are difficult to identify. In 2006, wet-season (December-February) rainfall over Malawi was markedly low, possibly causing a decreasing trend in December-February rainfall; however, evidence does not reveal consistent decreases.Mean annual temperature has increased by 0.9°C between 1960 and 2006, an average rate of 0.21°C per decade.The average number of ‘hot’ days per year in Malawi has increased by 30.5 between 1960 and 2003.The average number of ‘hot’ nights per year increased by 41 nights (an additional 11.1% of nights) between 1960 and 2003.The frequency of cold days and nights has decreased significantly since 1960 in all seasons except September-November
To explicitly quantify the linkages between the natural ecosystem servicesthat affect – and are affected by – food security and nutritional health forthe rural poor at the forest-agricultural interface Photo by Erwin Palacios (CI Colombia)
United Kingdom: University of Southampton (PI Poppy) University of Dundee (Dawson)United States of America: Conservation International (Co-PI Honzak)Spain: Basque Centre for Climate Change (Co-PI Villa)Colombia: International Centre for Tropical Agriculture – CIAT (Co-PI Jarvis) Research centres, universities and NGOsMalawi: Chancellor College (Co-PI Chiotha) LEAD Southern and Eastern Africa plus Ministry of Forestry, Forest Research Institute of Malawi WorldFish Centre - Malawi Rhodes University South Africa
• Rural Poverty (national poverty line): 50% in Colombia, 2010; 54% in Malawi, 2004.• Child malnutrition (height for age): 13 % in Colombia and 48% in Malawi, 2010.• Income share for top 10%: 44% in Colombia, 2010 and 33% in Malawi, 2004.
Lower Caquetá Upper CaquetáHigh forest coverLow deforestation Zomba Plateau High forest cover High deforestation Low forest cover Low deforestationNatural land use transition Forest replenishment period
The framework integrates the modelling tools and the DP-SIR approach to evaluatedrivers, pressures and impact on ES over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Long-Term Medium-Term Short-Term Drivers / Pressures State Impacts Food Security and Health Ecosystem Services Crises and Tipping Points Themes 1 and 2 Themes 1 and 2 Theme 2 ES modelling Environmental Impacts FeedMe ARIES Food Security Ecosystem service flows to beneficiaries Socioeconomic Health Impact surveys and PRA Economic Economic Impacts modelling Policies relating to e.g. economics, sector- Setting of targets BowTie: risk management / specific, environmental / priorities mitigation Theme 3 Theme 3 Response Local Regional National
Theme 1Drivers, pressures and linkages between food security,nutritional health and ES Photo by Malcolm Hudson (U. of Southampton)
Household surveys and food diaries. Three or more waves of measurements per site. Sampling in Malawi, possibility of a census in Colombia. Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing. Poverty Food Security ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Theme 2Crises and tipping points: Past, present and futureinteractions between food insecurity and ES at the forest-agricultural interface. http://blogs.reuters.com/photo graphers-blog/2010/08/12/an- aerial-view-of-sumatra-island/ Photo by Simon Willcock (U. of Southampton)
• 3 key interactions: Water, Forest & People WATER PEOPLE FOREST
A rapid spatial assessment tool for ecosystem services and their values; not a single model but an artificial intelligence assisted system that customizes models to user goals. Demonstrates a mapping process for ecosystem service provision, use, sink and flow while most ES assessments only look at provision. Probabilistic, Bayesian models inform decision-makers about the likelihood of possible scenarios; users can explore effects of policy changes and external events on estimates of uncertainty.
Theme 3The science-policy interface: How can we manage ES to reducefood insecurity and increase nutritional health?•Minimising risk of future environmental change•Influencing policy to better manageES conflicts, trade-offs and synergies to sustain food securityand health? Photo by Simon Willcock (U. of Southampton)
Hazard – Not enough FirewoodEcosystem – Natural Forest Threat – Over collection Control – Rules preventing over-harvesting Good/Service – Firewood Consequence – Increased Food Security Consequence – Decreased Control – Aid/Charcoal provision Food Security
Map different factors affecting ESBetter resource Identify the factors with highest negative impact on ES (and which are more management relevant for food security and nutritional health) Identify critical changes and tipping points that can accelerate the degradation of key ecosystems (that can be addressed through timely policy interventions) Report on climate change impacts on ES provision, food security and nutritional health Food security Report on current and future impact of land use change on sustainable and nutritional provision of ES and food security health Provide input for policies that can counterbalance the most urgent needs of the population exerting pressure on ES
The project is working in collaboration with key governmental institutions, such as the Ministry of Forestry and the Ministry for Local Government and Rural Development in Malawi. The project has set up National Steering Committees in Colombia and Malawi with high-profile scientific researchers. Local partners have access to relevant policy-making instances and public- agenda setters: • Malawi TV documentary discussed the potential contribution of the ASSETS project to current environmental issues affecting Malawi. • Caqueta’s Regional Government Development Plan (2012-2015) states that the project’s “scientific contributions are expected to serve as input for the formulation of better policies for intervention, prioritization of actions and management of regional and local authorities”.
This presentation was produced by ASSETS (NE-J002267-1), funded with support from the Ecosystem Services for Poverty AlleviationProgramme (ESPA). The ESPA programme is funded by the Department for International Development (DFID), the Economic andSocial Research Council (ESRC) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), as part of the UK’s Living with Environmental 23Change Programme (LWEC). The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the funders,the ESPA Programme, the ESPA Directorate, or LWEC.