OPS-G Forum: Recent in-orbit fragmentations and their impact

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This presentation will introduce ESA's collision avoidance process which monitors conjunctions between ESA satellites, such as ERS-2 and ENVISAT, and other objects in space. It will cover the procedure from the screening of conjunctions and the refinement of orbit information, to the planning of avoidance manoeuvres.

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OPS-G Forum: Recent in-orbit fragmentations and their impact

  1. 1. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 1 Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their Impact OPS-G Forum Presentation Holger Krag OPS-GR Aug. 28th , 2009 Special acknowledgements to: Tim Flohrer, Benjamin Bastida Virgili, Raymond Choc
  2. 2. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 2 – Introduction – ESA’s Collision Avoidance Service – Procedure and principles – Operational examples – Major Fragmentation Events – FY-1C ASAT (January 11th, 2007) – Briz-M break-up (February 19th, 2008) – USA-193 interception (February 21st, 2008) – Iridium-Cosmos collision (February 10th, 2009) – Consequences of these events – Consequences for ESA satellites – Long-term impact on the environment Contents
  3. 3. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 3 Contents Introduction
  4. 4. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 4 The US Space Surveillance Network DIEGO GARCIA NSSS CAPE COD LSSC BEALE KAENA PT. FYLINGDALES CLEAR SCC THULE CAVALIER MAUI & MSSS ALTAIR SOCORRO ASCENSION EGLIN MOSS Discovery Radar Tracking Radar Optical Telescope MSX / SBV COBRA DANE GLOBUS II DIEGO GARCIA NSSS CAPE COD LSSC BEALE KAENA PT. FYLINGDALES CLEAR SCC THULE CAVALIER MAUI & MSSS ALTAIR SOCORRO ASCENSION EGLIN MOSS Discovery Radar Tracking Radar Optical Telescope MSX / SBV COBRA DANE GLOBUS II Coverage: Objects > ca. 10cm in LEO
  5. 5. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 5 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 1957 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009 Numberofobjects CataloguedObjectsinOrbit asofAugust2009 The US SSN Object Catalogue 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 Numberofobjects 0 2000 4000 Payloads Rocket Bodies Fragments Other 6000 12000 14000 16000 10000 8000 Public US object catalogue as of August 2009
  6. 6. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 6 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Numberofcataloguedobjectsperevent[-] Severity of past events 1400 Pegasus HAPS Ariane 1 R/B 2600 Cosmos/Iridium Collision FY-1C ASAT Ca. 250 fragmentation events
  7. 7. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 7 Consequences Mean time between impacts on a surface of 100m2 Valid for May 2005Altitude >0.1mm >1mm >1cm >10cm 400km 4.5 days 3.9 years 1,214 years 16,392 years 800km 2.3 days 1.0 years 245 years 1,775 years 1,500km 0.9 days 1.5 years 534 years 3,190 years GTO 16.8 days 17.7 years 7,650 years 96,591 years GEO 78.1 days 264 years 154,006 years 414,749 years 4 known cases
  8. 8. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 8 ESA’s Collision Avoidance Service
  9. 9. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 9 Conjunction Analysis Process Flight Dynamics Flight Dynamics OperatorsOperators Flight Dynamics Flight Dynamics Chaser orbits and covariance data; CRASS configuration ODINODIN Orbit tracks Solar & geomag. activity data CRASSCRASS DISCOSDISCOS LEO MEO+GEO System Architectural Overview US Space Surveillance Network TLEs
  10. 10. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 10 Orbit Accuracy and Collision Avoidance – Data required to describe and qualify an orbit: – Orbit state vector or ephemeris – Metrics for the quality of the orbit fit: Covariance  Instead of exact conjunction geometry, only a collision probability can be determined (not precise for TLEs) (not available for TLEs) Chaser Target
  11. 11. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 11 TLE Orbit Uncertainty Estimation 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 901000 0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 Eccentricity [-]Inclination [deg] 1-sigmauncertainty[m] Estimate out-of-plane component of TLE covariance – Approach applied at ESA consists of a comparison of the TLE orbit with an accurate numerical orbit resulting from a least-squares fit of the TLE orbit – ± 0.5days from TLE epoch – State at epoch and drag coefficient estimates
  12. 12. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 12 Determination of collision probability – Determination of combined target+chaser cross section – Combination of the two error covariance matrices into a single one (3D ellipsoid) – Projection of ellipsoid onto the B-plane – ║distance vector – ┴ relative velocity vector – Integration of projected probability over cross-section = collision probability Rt Rr AC B-plane AC Combined position error ellipsoid θ Δvtca Δrtca
  13. 13. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 13 Automated reporting – Automatic compilation of a bulletin for ten highest risk conjunction events and distribution by email. Conjunction geometry Chaser approach geometry Target + chaser orbital elements Combined orbit uncertainties Chaser object properties
  14. 14. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 14 Improvement of Chaser Orbit Information Monge tracking ship Tracking and Imaging Radar ? ! EISCAT radars ? ? GRAVES
  15. 15. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 15 – Due to the improved orbit information (ca. 4m x 21m x 13m) the collision typically decreases to a negligible level: Improvement of Chaser Orbit Information (2/2) AC p(Δr)
  16. 16. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 16 Operational Examples 1.) 09.01.2008, 19:00 UTC: Envisat vs. Cosmos-1624 – Bulletin: Collision probability : 1/1172, Distance: 499m – With FGAN-Tracks: Collision probability : ~0, Distance: 282m 2.) 13.01.2008, 18:58 UTC: Envisat vs. Cosmos-1371 – Bulletin: Collision probability : 1/1538, Distance: 590m – With FGAN-Tracks: Collision probability : 1.5E-26, Distance: 145m 3.) 05.03.2008, 03:35 UTC: ERS2 vs. Formosat 3-C – Bulletin: Collision probability : 1/3475, Distance: 342m – With Operational Data: Collision probability : 8.2E-5, Distance: 1.193m 4.) 23.04.2009, 03:29 – 26.04., 08:35 UTC: Envisat vs. Cosmos-3M (71 conjunctions) – Bulletin: Collision probability : 1/2241, Distance: 313m – With USSTRATCOM support: smallest miss distance: 499m
  17. 17. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 17 Recent Major Events
  18. 18. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 18 FY-1C ASAT (1/4) Physical properties Mass 958 kg Span 1.4m Length 1.4m Width 8.6m Orbit at event epoch Semi major axes 7231.43 km Eccentricity .00036 Inclination 98.645° – Feng Yun 1C (“Wind & clouds”) – Chinese weather satellite, launched 1999 – Satellite was intercepted by a Dong Feng type missile on January 11th – “kinetic kill” Feng Yun 1C Dong Feng
  19. 19. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 19 – Backward propagation of the first 32 published fragment orbits – At event epoch, fragment come close to parent position Positions of fragments and parent object Epoch (UTC) Jan, 11, 2007, 22:25:55 (+/- 20s) Latitude 35,16° Longitude 100.36° Altitude 863 km Event epoch FY-1C ASAT (2/4)
  20. 20. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 20 March 2006, 18th -21st June 2007, 4th -7th Time [d] Impact of Jan. 11 ASAT test EISCAT Svalbard radar (lon: 16.029°, lat: 78.153°) (42m and 32m UHF antennas) FY-1C ASAT (4/4)
  21. 21. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 21 Briz-M break-up (1/2) Physical properties Dry Mass 2,370 kg Total Mass 22,170 kg Fuel/Oxidizer UDMH/NTO Orbit at event epoch Semi major axes 13978.63 km Eccentricity 0.50798 Inclination 51.49° – Briz-M (or Breeze-M) – maneuverable space tug used as 4th stage for Proton-M – On February 28, 2006, due to a malfunction, the Briz-M stranded in an elliptical orbit (with Arabsat 4A) – Since only about 24% of the available Δv has been consumed at least half of the hypergolic propellant was left (about 10t) Briz-M
  22. 22. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 22 Epoch (UTC) Feb, 19, 2007, 17:11:00 (+/-20s) Latitude -39,39° Longitude 124.62° Altitude 5920 km – Reconstruction of the event: Optical observations from Australia – Half hour exposure (16:50 to 17:17 UTC on February 19) from Chittering, Western Australia, at 31° 27' S, 116° 06' E – Simulation results with ESA’s PROOF (Program for Radar and Optical Observation Forecasting) Briz-M break-up (2/2)
  23. 23. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 23 USA-193 interception (1/2) Epoch Feb 21st , 03:29 UTC Semi Major Axis 6636.040 km Inclination 58.532° RAAN 30.127° – Classified experimental military satellite launched December 14th, 2006, malfunctioned shortly after launch – Without any further interaction, the satellite would have performed an uncontrolled re-entry at around March 11th, 2008. – Due to concerns of the US government on the possible survival of tanks that contain toxic hydrazine the satellite was intercepted with the help of a ballistic missile NOTAM Area 03:29 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 150155160165170175180 Northernlatitude[deg] Western longitude [deg] Amateur TLE
  24. 24. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 24 Iridium-Cosmos collision (1/4) Common Name Iridium 33 Catalog Number 24946 COSPAR ID 1997-051C Launch Date Sep. 14th , 1997 Mass 661 kg Dimensions 4.1m x 1.0m x 8.4m Common Name Cosmos 2251 Catalog Number 22675 COSPAR ID 1993-036A Launch Date Jun. 16th , 1993 Mass 892 kg Dimensions ?m x ?m x ?m
  25. 25. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 25 Iridium-Cosmos collision (2/4) Epoch Feb. 10th 2009, 16:55:59.80 UTC Event Altitude 788.68km Longitude 97.88° Latitude 72.51° Iridium Cosmos Δv=11.647km/s
  26. 26. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 26 – Two objects tagged with the COSPAR IDs of Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 are still tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network (main fragments)? 7160 7162 7164 7166 7168 7170 7172 7174 31 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 SemiMajorAxis[km] Time in February [DD] Iridium Cosmos 2251 86.39 86.392 86.394 86.396 86.398 86.4 86.402 31 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 74.044 74.045 74.046 74.047 74.048 74.049 74.05 74.051 InclinationIridium[deg] InclinationCosmos2251[deg] Time in February [DD] Iridium Cosmos 2251 Iridium-Cosmos collision (3/4)
  27. 27. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 27 – EISCAT Svalbard measurements (Cosmos 2251 fragments are not observable) – The second zenital passage at around 07:00 UTC is less pronounced Iridium-Cosmos collision (4/4)
  28. 28. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 28 Consequences of these events
  29. 29. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 29 US SSN Screening Process – Detection and Cataloguing of all detectable fragments is a time consuming process 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2007 2008 2009 NumberofFragments FY-1C fragments Collision fragments Initially seen
  30. 30. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 30 Modelling break-ups (1/2) – Fragmentation modelling with the help of the EVOLVE break-up model – The model uses a power-law distribution for N(>d) to be scaled with the number of catalogued fragments 0.01 1 100 10000 1e+006 1e+008 1e+010 1e+012 1e-0061e-005 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 Cumulativenumberofobjects>d Characteristic length / Diameter [m] Explosion - 100 trackable objects Collision - target: 800kg - impactor: 200kg
  31. 31. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 31 Calibration of the model Henize factor 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 HenizeFactor[-] Diameter [m] Example: FY-1C ASAT – For immediate risk assessment the initially reported number needs to be scaled with the Henize factor After 2 years of screening 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1e+006 1e+007 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 CumulativeNumber(<d) Diameter [m] US Surv. Netw. ASAT Modelling Approach
  32. 32. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 32 Comparison to measurements (1/2) – Plane dispersion: COSMOS is faster than Iridium – Comparison: EISCAT / PROOF: EISCAT is looking at pinch points EISCAT Svalbard RadarPinch point Situation 150 days later
  33. 33. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 33 0 20 40 60 80 100 00:00 00:05 00:10 00:15 00:20 Numberofdetections[-] Time[hofday] Comparison to measurements (2/2) EISCAT Svalbard: March 13th , 2007 Show movie
  34. 34. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 34 Results: FY-1C ASAT Directly after event > 10cm 1,329 > 1cm 59,427 > 1mm 2,852,910 Gabbard diagram - modelled 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 Apogee/PerigeeAltitude[km] Orbital Period [min] Perigee Apogee 517 fragments (TLEs) TLE
  35. 35. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 35 Results: Briz-M break-up Gabbard diagram - modelled Directly after event > 10cm 1,156 > 1cm 46,6445 > 1mm 1,820,250 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Apogee/PerigeeAltitude[km] Orbital Period [min] Perigee Apogee
  36. 36. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 36 Results: USA-193 interception Directly after event > 10cm 1,773 > 1cm 69,216 > 1mm 2,896,860 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 90 100 110 120 130 Apogee/PerigeeAltitude[km] Orbital Period [min] Perigee Apogee Gabbard diagram - modelled
  37. 37. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 37 – Object passes as seen in a horizontal coordinate system from the CSG site: – Black lines: modelled objects – Red lines: catalogued objects – With progressing time, due to Earth rotation, the launching site will move out of the range of the fragment orbit planes into Eastern direction at a rate of 15° in longitude per hour USA193fragmentsasseenfromELA3sitefrom03:28to05:28 West North East South 0 45 90 USA193fragmentsasseenfromELA3sitefrom04:28to04:38 West North East South 0 45 90 Assumed launch azimuth Launch Collision Risk for ATV due to USA-193 fragments T  T+10minutes T-1h  T+1h T = 2008/03/08 04:28 UTC
  38. 38. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 38 Results: Iridium-Cosmos collision Iridium 33 Cosmos 2251 Directly after event > 10cm 1,435 > 1cm 61,168 > 1mm 2,963,800 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 90 100 110 120 130 140 Apogee/PerigeeAltitude[km] Orbital Period [min] Perigee Apogee 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 90 100 110 120 130 140 Apogee/PerigeeAltitude[km] Orbital Period [min] Perigee Apogee TLETLE
  39. 39. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 39 Results at event epochs Spatial density for objects > 1cm 0 1e-007 2e-007 3e-007 4e-007 5e-007 6e-007 7e-007 8e-007 9e-007 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 SpatialDensity[1/km**3] Altitude [km] Background 2006 FY-1C ASAT Briz-M break-up USA-193 interception Iridium-Cosmos collision
  40. 40. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 40 Results 1 month after event epochs Spatial density for objects > 1cm 0 1e-007 2e-007 3e-007 4e-007 5e-007 6e-007 7e-007 8e-007 9e-007 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 SpatialDensity[1/km**3] Altitude [km] Background 2006 FY-1C ASAT Briz-M break-up USA-193 interception Iridium-Cosmos collision
  41. 41. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 41 Results 1 year after event epochs Spatial density for objects > 1cm 0 1e-007 2e-007 3e-007 4e-007 5e-007 6e-007 7e-007 8e-007 9e-007 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 SpatialDensity[1/km**3] Altitude [km] Background 2006 FY-1C ASAT Briz-M break-up USA-193 interception Iridium-Cosmos collision
  42. 42. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 42 Results 10 years after event epochs Spatial density for objects > 1cm 0 1e-007 2e-007 3e-007 4e-007 5e-007 6e-007 7e-007 8e-007 9e-007 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 SpatialDensity[1/km**3] Altitude [km] Background 2006 FY-1C ASAT Briz-M break-up Iridium-Cosmos collision
  43. 43. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 43 Risk increase level - today Total Collision ASAT > 10cm 17% 12% 1% > 1cm 23% 16% 4% Contribution to the overall collision risk Total Collision ASAT > 10cm 58% 45% 13% > 1cm 86% 60% 26% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Riskincrease[%] Altitude [km] Objects > 1cm Objects > 10cm ISS ERS-2 / ENV
  44. 44. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 44 Risk increase level – in 10 years Contribution to the overall collision risk Total Collision ASAT > 10cm 8% 0% 0% > 1cm 6% 0% 0% Total Collision ASAT > 10cm 39% 23% 14% > 1cm 48% 24% 24% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Riskincrease[%] Altitude [km] Objects > 1cm Objects > 10cm ISS ERS-2 / ENV
  45. 45. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 45 Decay profiles Number of objects > 1cm 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Numberofobjects[-] Years after event epoch [-] FY-1C ASAT Briz-M break-up USA-193 interception Iridium-Cosmos collision
  46. 46. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 46 Consequences for the future environment (1/2) Evolution of the number of objects >10cm Scenario: - no future launches - no explosions 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000 17000 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 Numberofobjects[-] Epoch without recent major events with recent major events
  47. 47. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 47 Consequences for the future environment (2/2) Evolution of the number collision events Scenario: - no future launches - no explosions 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 Numberofcollisions[-] Epoch without recent major events with recent major events
  48. 48. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 48 Impact on Collision Avoidance – 2006 – Envisat, number of conjunction events with collision probability > 10-6 : 81 Payloads 37% Rocketbodies 22% Debris 41%
  49. 49. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 49 Impact on Collision Avoidance – 2008 – Envisat, number of conjunction events with collision probability > 10-6 : 125 Payloads 22% Rocketbodies 15% Debris 45% Fengyun 18%
  50. 50. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 50 Impact on Collision Avoidance – 2009 – Envisat, number of conjunction events with collision probability > 10-6 : (projected)327 Payloads 4% Rocketbodies 21% Debris 17% Fengyun 9% Collision 49%
  51. 51. Recent In-orbit Fragmentations and their impact | Krag | 28.08.2009 | Pag. 51 Conclusions – The last two years have seen 4 unprecedented break-up events leading to the release of more than 1000 objects > 10cm each – Two of the events (FY-1C ASAT, Iridium-Cosmos collision) have a considerable impact on ESA’s Earth observation missions, they lead to a long-term collision risk increase by about 50% – The consequences are visible and verifiable in ESA’s daily conjunction screening process – Fragment orbits are typically more difficult to predict and to track, which generates additional burdens on the conjunction analysis efforts – These events will put a long-term effect onto the existing environment, and (although not changing the trend) will increase the future collision rate

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