Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
Minnesota Woodlands andClimate ChangeEli Sagoresagor@umn.eduMarch 2012
About this presentationHistoric change: ContextExpected future changeAction-oriented: What you can do in your woods
All of the content is onlineText, recording of this presentation, links:   http://z.umn.edu/MWCC
What we’ll coverSection 1:  How Minnesota’s current forests came to beSection 2:  Climate change projections and possible ...
Glacial historyFour major periodsWisconsin glaciation75,000-10,000 y.a.Covered most ofMinnesota                       Crea...
©University of Minnesota Press:       J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.9
Post-glacial landscape    Barren glacial till, little life present                                               Creative ...
Soil slowly formsClimateOrganic matter inputsChemical weathering                  Creative Commons licensed             Fl...
© University of Minnesota Press:J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.6
Source: J. Tester,1995. Fig. 1.22
Laurentian mixed forest         Aspen         Parklands                      Laurentian                      Mixed Forest ...
Eastern broadleaf forest          Aspen          Parklands                       Laurentian                       Mixed Fo...
Prairie parkland          Aspen          Parklands                       Laurentian                       Mixed Forest    ...
Minnesota’s 4 biomes                Aspen                Parklands                             Laurentian                 ...
More info onMinnesota’s biomesMN DNR’s EcologicalClassification System sitehttp://www.dnr.state.mn.us/ecsOr Google “MN DNR...
Pollen Viewer                   American Indian                                lands by treatyNational Climatic Data Cente...
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Pollen Viewer   American Indian                lands by treaty
Human impacts since 19th c.    American Indian:      Burning      Dispersed settlement
Human impacts   European American, 19thc. - present     PLSS and land conveyance: colonization     Timber harvest: 1850s –...
Public Land SurveySystem and landconveyance
Timber harvest, 19th c.Minnesota Historical Society photo
Minnesota Historical Society photos
Minnesota Historical Society photo
Minnesota Historical Society photo
Minnesota forests are resilient
Review of Section 1:How Minnesota’s current forests came to beGlaciersFour biomesHuman impactsActive management &regrowth
What we’ll coverSection 1:  How Minnesota’s current forests came to beSection 2:  Climate change projections and possible ...
Greenhouse gas concentrations, past 2000 yearsIPCC 2007: AR4,  WG1, FAQ 2.1
Earth’s surface temp, 1880-2009             Blue line = average             temp 1950-1980NASA GISS
MN annual temperature history 1895-2007
MN seasonal temperature history 1895-2007
NASA: 10 warmest years
Impacts on Minnesota woodlands
How these slides work                  Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree                            ...
Range shifts: Red oak      FIA current                   100-yr prediction                                      (average o...
Range shifts: White pine       FIA current                   100-yr prediction                                       (aver...
Range shifts: Trembling aspen      FIA current                   100-yr prediction                                      (a...
Range shifts: forest types           FIA current                            100-yr prediction                             ...
2095 seasonalclimatecomparisonsUnion of Concerned Scientistsreport:http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/pdf/minnesota.pdf
Bottom line:   Most ranges shift to the north and east
How changes will affect woodlands    LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts...
How changes will affect woodlands     LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts...       …and more frequent catastrophic events...
How changes will affect woodlands                      Longer, more severe droughts...                            …and mor...
How changes will affect woodlandsDecline in vigor and resilience of           native stands   Lots of new growing spacenot...
How changes will affect woodlands   Lots of new growing spacenot well suited to current species     More invasive species ...
Greatest change near the borderLeft: © University of Minnesota Press:J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.6Right: MN DNR map image
Review of Section 2:Climate change projections andpossible impactsAbout climate changeProjected range shiftsPossible impac...
What we’ll coverSection 1:  How Minnesota’s current forests came to beSection 2:  Climate change projections and possible ...
Background: Climate change ecologyThree strategies:1. Resistance2. Resilience3. FacilitationGalatowitsch et al, 2009. Down...
Strategy 1: ResistanceActions: Increasing watersupply, reducing herbivory& invasive species, fightinginsect and diseaseoutb...
Strategy: ResistanceAction: MonitorNotice changes:Insect outbreaks,dieback, mortalityNew regeneration,improved growthInvas...
Strategy: Resistance            Action: When you notice            change, act on it!            Deal with insect &       ...
Strategy: ResilienceActions: Maintain speciesand age class diversity,maintain vigor and health,reduce fragmentation.
Strategy: ResilienceAction: Thinning &stand improvementThinning your woods
Strategy: ResilienceAction: EradicateEradicate or controlinsects, disease, andinvasives
Strategy: ResilienceAction: Diversifyspecies & agesUnderplant from yourproperty or nearby.Maintain variety of ageclasses.
Strategy 3: Facilitation“Actions to mimic, assist, orenable ongoing naturaladaptive processes such asspecies dispersal,col...
Pollen Viewer          American Indian                       lands by treaty                Slide source: Lee Frelich, UMN...
Strategy: FacilitationAction: ProfessionalassistanceMoving species has causedhuge problems: Buckthorn.Moving native specie...
Strategy: FacilitationAction: Keep forestland forestedTrees are made ofatmospheric carbonGrowing trees removecarbon from t...
Review of Section 3:What woodland owners can doStrategies and actions:   1. Resistance: Monitor, record, remove invaders  ...
Bottom lineWoodland owners have a tremendous stewardship opportunity and responsibility.
For more information:Slides and recording:http://z.umn.edu/MWCCEli Sagoresagor@umn.edu
Minnesota Woodlands and Climate Change
Minnesota Woodlands and Climate Change
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Minnesota Woodlands and Climate Change

4,190 views

Published on

How Minnesota woodlands developed, what to expect in the future, and what landowners and the rest of us can do to detect change and act to maintain resilient, healthy woodlands. (Updated May 2011)

  • Be the first to comment

Minnesota Woodlands and Climate Change

  1. 1. Minnesota Woodlands andClimate ChangeEli Sagoresagor@umn.eduMarch 2012
  2. 2. About this presentationHistoric change: ContextExpected future changeAction-oriented: What you can do in your woods
  3. 3. All of the content is onlineText, recording of this presentation, links: http://z.umn.edu/MWCC
  4. 4. What we’ll coverSection 1: How Minnesota’s current forests came to beSection 2: Climate change projections and possible impactsSection 3: What woodland owners can do
  5. 5. Glacial historyFour major periodsWisconsin glaciation75,000-10,000 y.a.Covered most ofMinnesota Creative Commons licensed Flickr photo by Paul Keller
  6. 6. ©University of Minnesota Press: J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.9
  7. 7. Post-glacial landscape Barren glacial till, little life present Creative Commons licensed Flickr photo by Terekhova
  8. 8. Soil slowly formsClimateOrganic matter inputsChemical weathering Creative Commons licensed Flickr photo by Thomas Ormston
  9. 9. © University of Minnesota Press:J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.6
  10. 10. Source: J. Tester,1995. Fig. 1.22
  11. 11. Laurentian mixed forest Aspen Parklands Laurentian Mixed Forest Prairie Eastern Parklands Broadleaf Forest
  12. 12. Eastern broadleaf forest Aspen Parklands Laurentian Mixed Forest Prairie Eastern Parklands Broadleaf Forest
  13. 13. Prairie parkland Aspen Parklands Laurentian Mixed Forest Prairie Eastern Parklands Broadleaf Forest
  14. 14. Minnesota’s 4 biomes Aspen Parklands Laurentian Mixed Forest Prairie Eastern Parklands Broadleaf Forest
  15. 15. More info onMinnesota’s biomesMN DNR’s EcologicalClassification System sitehttp://www.dnr.state.mn.us/ecsOr Google “MN DNR ECS”
  16. 16. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treatyNational Climatic Data CenterGoogle “Pollen Viewer”
  17. 17. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  18. 18. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  19. 19. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  20. 20. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  21. 21. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  22. 22. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  23. 23. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  24. 24. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  25. 25. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  26. 26. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  27. 27. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  28. 28. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  29. 29. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  30. 30. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  31. 31. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  32. 32. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  33. 33. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  34. 34. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  35. 35. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  36. 36. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  37. 37. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  38. 38. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  39. 39. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
  40. 40. Human impacts since 19th c. American Indian: Burning Dispersed settlement
  41. 41. Human impacts European American, 19thc. - present PLSS and land conveyance: colonization Timber harvest: 1850s – 1920s Fires, then fire suppression Regrowth and sustainable management
  42. 42. Public Land SurveySystem and landconveyance
  43. 43. Timber harvest, 19th c.Minnesota Historical Society photo
  44. 44. Minnesota Historical Society photos
  45. 45. Minnesota Historical Society photo
  46. 46. Minnesota Historical Society photo
  47. 47. Minnesota forests are resilient
  48. 48. Review of Section 1:How Minnesota’s current forests came to beGlaciersFour biomesHuman impactsActive management &regrowth
  49. 49. What we’ll coverSection 1: How Minnesota’s current forests came to beSection 2: Climate change projections and possible impactsSection 3: What woodland owners can do
  50. 50. Greenhouse gas concentrations, past 2000 yearsIPCC 2007: AR4, WG1, FAQ 2.1
  51. 51. Earth’s surface temp, 1880-2009 Blue line = average temp 1950-1980NASA GISS
  52. 52. MN annual temperature history 1895-2007
  53. 53. MN seasonal temperature history 1895-2007
  54. 54. NASA: 10 warmest years
  55. 55. Impacts on Minnesota woodlands
  56. 56. How these slides work Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
  57. 57. Range shifts: Red oak FIA current 100-yr prediction (average of 5 models) Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
  58. 58. Range shifts: White pine FIA current 100-yr prediction (average of 5 models) Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
  59. 59. Range shifts: Trembling aspen FIA current 100-yr prediction (average of 5 models) Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
  60. 60. Range shifts: forest types FIA current 100-yr prediction (average of 5 models) Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
  61. 61. 2095 seasonalclimatecomparisonsUnion of Concerned Scientistsreport:http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/pdf/minnesota.pdf
  62. 62. Bottom line: Most ranges shift to the north and east
  63. 63. How changes will affect woodlands LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts...
  64. 64. How changes will affect woodlands LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts... …and more frequent catastrophic events Minnesota DNR photo Source: www.forestryimages.org
  65. 65. How changes will affect woodlands Longer, more severe droughts... …and more frequent catastrophic events Decline in vigor and resilience of native stands Photo by Dave Hanson, UMN Extension CURA Reporter, Jan/Feb 2010
  66. 66. How changes will affect woodlandsDecline in vigor and resilience of native stands Lots of new growing spacenot well suited to current species Photo by Joseph O’Brien, USDA Forest Service www.forestryimages.org
  67. 67. How changes will affect woodlands Lots of new growing spacenot well suited to current species More invasive species (and other non-natives)
  68. 68. Greatest change near the borderLeft: © University of Minnesota Press:J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.6Right: MN DNR map image
  69. 69. Review of Section 2:Climate change projections andpossible impactsAbout climate changeProjected range shiftsPossible impact scenarios
  70. 70. What we’ll coverSection 1: How Minnesota’s current forests came to beSection 2: Climate change projections and possible impactsSection 3: What woodland owners can do
  71. 71. Background: Climate change ecologyThree strategies:1. Resistance2. Resilience3. FacilitationGalatowitsch et al, 2009. Download from http://z.umn.edu/climatestrat
  72. 72. Strategy 1: ResistanceActions: Increasing watersupply, reducing herbivory& invasive species, fightinginsect and diseaseoutbreaks, manipulatingdisturbance regimes. Photo by Patrick Lanham on Flickr. Used with permission.
  73. 73. Strategy: ResistanceAction: MonitorNotice changes:Insect outbreaks,dieback, mortalityNew regeneration,improved growthInvasive speciesKeep good records!
  74. 74. Strategy: Resistance Action: When you notice change, act on it! Deal with insect & disease threats. Notice new species moving in. Consider removing them.Photo: Lee FrelichCURA Reporter, Jan/Feb 2010
  75. 75. Strategy: ResilienceActions: Maintain speciesand age class diversity,maintain vigor and health,reduce fragmentation.
  76. 76. Strategy: ResilienceAction: Thinning &stand improvementThinning your woods
  77. 77. Strategy: ResilienceAction: EradicateEradicate or controlinsects, disease, andinvasives
  78. 78. Strategy: ResilienceAction: Diversifyspecies & agesUnderplant from yourproperty or nearby.Maintain variety of ageclasses.
  79. 79. Strategy 3: Facilitation“Actions to mimic, assist, orenable ongoing naturaladaptive processes such asspecies dispersal,colonization, anddisturbance.”CAUTION! Photo by Bankshot on Flickr. Used with permission.
  80. 80. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty Slide source: Lee Frelich, UMN-FR
  81. 81. Strategy: FacilitationAction: ProfessionalassistanceMoving species has causedhuge problems: Buckthorn.Moving native species fromwithin the region carriesless risk.Be careful! Photo by Bankshot on Flickr. Used with permission.
  82. 82. Strategy: FacilitationAction: Keep forestland forestedTrees are made ofatmospheric carbonGrowing trees removecarbon from theatmosphereSoil & water protection,wildlife habitat
  83. 83. Review of Section 3:What woodland owners can doStrategies and actions: 1. Resistance: Monitor, record, remove invaders 2. Resilience: Thin, eradicate, maintain diversity 3. Facilitation: Keep forest land forested, work with a professional
  84. 84. Bottom lineWoodland owners have a tremendous stewardship opportunity and responsibility.
  85. 85. For more information:Slides and recording:http://z.umn.edu/MWCCEli Sagoresagor@umn.edu

×