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THE UNITED STATES OF NORTH AMERICA

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The Science of Knowing How To Proceed
USNA 2016 Project Priorities

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THE UNITED STATES OF NORTH AMERICA

  1. 1. Priori%zing Humanitarian Projects Preliminary Approach: January 3, 2016
  2. 2. Inherent Complexity of Priori%zing Humanitarian Projects Basics: •  Water •  Food Projects: •  Electricity •  Water •  Waste Management •  Food Produc9on •  Transporta9on •  Housing Na9on’s Characteris9cs: •  Poverty •  Economic Inequality Measures: •  Per Capita GDP •  Health Outcomes •  Socioeconomic Status •  Poli9cal Stability
  3. 3. Priori%zing Criteria •  Energy – Independence from fossil fuels •  Poverty •  Poverty and Economic Inequality •  Economic Inequality •  Analy%c Hierarchy Process
  4. 4. Finite Amount Energy from Fossil Fuel
  5. 5. World Popula%on Correlates with Oil Produc%on
  6. 6. Humanity’s Highest Priority
  7. 7. Na%ons in Poverty (Par%al List) Per Capita GDP Gini Inequality Country $/Person (2015) Measure Qatar 140,649$ 41.1% Singapore 82,763$ 46.4% Norway 64,856$ 26.8% Hong Kong 55,084$ 53.7% United States 54,629$ 45.0% Germany 45,802$ 27.0% Canada 44,057$ 32.1% Taiwan 43,600$ 33.8% United Kingdom 39,762$ 32.4% Malaysia 25,639$ 46.2% Russia 25,636$ 42.0% South Africa 13,387$ 62.5% China 13,217$ 46.9% Dominican Republic 12,678$ 45.7% Jordan 12,259$ 39.7% Sri Lanka 10,131$ 49.0% Indonesia 9,947$ 41.0% Mongolia 9,816$ 36.5% El Salvador 8,078$ 46.9% Fiji 8,063$ 42.8% Guatemala 7,592$ 55.1% Morocco 7,489$ 40.9% Swaziland 6,955$ 50.4% Guyana 6,810$ 44.6% Philippines 6,800$ 46.0% India 5,637$ 33.6% Vietnam 5,508$ 37.6% Laos 5,017$ 36.7% Pakistan 4,788$ 29.6% Honduras 4,779$ 57.7% Cambodia 3,164$ 37.9% Papua New Guinea 2,750$ 50.9% Afghanistan 2,025$ 27.8% Haiti 1,772$ 59.2% Guinea 1,304$ 39.4% Niger 953$ 34.0% Central African Republic 628$ 61.3% Income, Socioeconomic Status, and Health: Exploring the Rela9onships; J.A. Auerbach & B.K. Krimgold; Na9onal Policy Associa9on; 2001, Washington, DC. {Page30}. $7,500 (1990) = $13,619 (2015)
  8. 8. Na%ons in Poverty with Economic Inequality Per Capita GDP Gini Inequality Country $/Person (2015) Measure Qatar 140,649$ 41.1% Singapore 82,763$ 46.4% Norway 64,856$ 26.8% Hong Kong 55,084$ 53.7% United States 54,629$ 45.0% Germany 45,802$ 27.0% Canada 44,057$ 32.1% Taiwan 43,600$ 33.8% United Kingdom 39,762$ 32.4% Malaysia 25,639$ 46.2% Russia 25,636$ 42.0% South Africa 13,387$ 62.5% China 13,217$ 46.9% Dominican Republic 12,678$ 45.7% Jordan 12,259$ 39.7% Sri Lanka 10,131$ 49.0% Indonesia 9,947$ 41.0% Mongolia 9,816$ 36.5% El Salvador 8,078$ 46.9% Fiji 8,063$ 42.8% Guatemala 7,592$ 55.1% Morocco 7,489$ 40.9% Swaziland 6,955$ 50.4% Guyana 6,810$ 44.6% Philippines 6,800$ 46.0% India 5,637$ 33.6% Vietnam 5,508$ 37.6% Laos 5,017$ 36.7% Pakistan 4,788$ 29.6% Honduras 4,779$ 57.7% Cambodia 3,164$ 37.9% Papua New Guinea 2,750$ 50.9% Afghanistan 2,025$ 27.8% Haiti 1,772$ 59.2% Guinea 1,304$ 39.4% Niger 953$ 34.0% Central African Republic 628$ 61.3% Lorentz Curve Gini > 40% generally relates to: •  Poor Health outcomes •  Social Instability •  Poten%al Poli%cal Instability Gini>40% + Poverty = Cri%cal Mass
  9. 9. Na%ons with Economic Inequality Lorentz Curve Gini > 40% generally relates to: •  Poor Health outcomes •  Social Instability •  Poten%al Poli%cal Instability Gini>40% Implies Need for Jobs and Tax Reform Per Capita GDP Gini Norway 64,856$ 26.8% Germany 45,802$ 27.0% Afghanistan 2,025$ 27.8% Pakistan 4,788$ 29.6% Canada 44,057$ 32.1% United Kingdom 39,762$ 32.4% India 5,637$ 33.6% Taiwan 43,600$ 33.8% Niger 953$ 34.0% Mongolia 9,816$ 36.5% Laos 5,017$ 36.7% Vietnam 5,508$ 37.6% Cambodia 3,164$ 37.9% Guinea 1,304$ 39.4% Jordan 12,259$ 39.7% Morocco 7,489$ 40.9% Indonesia 9,947$ 41.0% Qatar 140,649$ 41.1% Russia 25,636$ 42.0% Fiji 8,063$ 42.8% Guyana 6,810$ 44.6% United States 54,629$ 45.0% Dominican Republic 12,678$ 45.7% Philippines 6,800$ 46.0% Malaysia 25,639$ 46.2% Singapore 82,763$ 46.4% China 13,217$ 46.9% El Salvador 8,078$ 46.9% Sri Lanka 10,131$ 49.0% Swaziland 6,955$ 50.4% Papua New Guinea 2,750$ 50.9% Hong Kong 55,084$ 53.7% Guatemala 7,592$ 55.1% Honduras 4,779$ 57.7% Haiti 1,772$ 59.2% Central African Republic 628$ 61.3% South Africa 13,387$ 62.5%
  10. 10. Analy%c Hierarchic Process (AHP) Electricity Water Waste Mgt. Food Produc9on Transporta9on Housing Per Capita GDP Health Outcomes Socioeconomic Status Poli9cal Stability Poverty & Inequality Poverty Inequality Country Status, Requires Different Measures of Success Measures Impacted Differently By Different Projects Projects Tailored to the Characteris9cs of the Country Country Specific Priori9zed Projects
  11. 11. Conclusion •  The Approach Presented Incorporates Proven Methodologies •  Lorenz Curve Since the Early 1900’s •  Analy%c Hierarchy Process (AHP), T. Saaty – 1970’s •  Dr. Riggs has Several Published Ar%cles Regarding AHP •  Dr. Riggs Taught AHP at The University of Alabama in Huntsville •  Drs. Riggs and Oleynik used AHP to Priori%ze US DoD Projects •  Moving Forward •  Systemic Aboriginal Economic Inequali%es •  Expand Research of Drs. Dennis and Riggs •  Incorporate in Project Priori%za%on Process •  Involve Country Experts to Assign AHP Scores •  Priori%ze Energy Deployments in PI, Taiwan, and Singapore •  Priori%ze Non-Energy Projects in PI, Taiwan, and Singapore

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