Seeing Around Corners: How to Spot Technology Trends and Make Them Happen - Guided by Supertrends and Wardley Maps

1. SEEING AROUND CORNERS: How to Spot Technology Trends and Make Them Happen @erik_schon Managing Director, Nordics Erlang Solutions Emerging Tech Beat Conference October 15, 2019 Stockholm

2. How do you see around corners? @erik_schon #ETB19

3. @erik_schon #ETB19

6. We provide world-class expertise in building innovative, scalable and resilient systems evolving the Erlang/Elixir open-source eco-system @erik_schon #ETB19 We’re hiring!

8. How do you see around corners? @erik_schon #ETB19

11. 2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS © 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd Forget the past, embrace the future Stay true to your core competencies Bring in diverse perspectives Rita Gunther McGrath @erik_schon #ETB19

12. “The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed.” William Gibson 1. How to Spot Technology Trends: SUPERTRENDS @erik_schon #ETB19

13. Trends Spotted by Strategist Simon Wardley 2014 Simon Wardley @swardley@erik_schon #ETB19 War: disruptive industrialization of products into commodities and/or utilities

14. Trends Spotted by Futurist Lars Tvede 2019: SUPERTRENDS TECH SOCIETY Scientific Activity Doubling Every 15 Years Digitalization Programming Biology Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computers Sensors and Internet Everywhere New Forms of Organizations and Ways of Working Bright Environmentalism Changed Labour Markets and Needs Granular Markets Smart Money Executable Contracts Increased Access to Exciting Experiences Lars Tvede @larstvede@erik_schon #ETB19

15. Supertrends app supertrends.com @SupertrendsApp SUPERTRENDS: Crowdsourcing Future Predictions from Community! @erik_schon #ETB19 Which events? When? Significance? Impact? Experts?

16. 2. How to make Technology Trends Happen: WARDLEY MAPS “As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.” Antoine de Saint-Exupéry @erik_schon #ETB19

17. Katya Knyazeva @erik_schon #ETB19

18. Characteristics of a Map Visual Context-specific Position Components Anchor Movement X How can we do this for technology and business? Simon Wardley @swardley @erik_schon #ETB19

19. Wardley Maps Visualize evolution and guide choices Simon Wardley @swardley What do our customers need? Where’s our market position? Where’s competition today/tomorrow? Where’s technology today/tomorrow? Where do we focus? What moves do we make, e.g. in-house/off-the-shelf/outsource? What capabilities do we have/need? How do we work today/tomorrow How do we organize today/tomorrow? @erik_schon #ETB19

20. Wardley Maps Visualize evolution and guide choices Visual Context-specific Movement (Evolution) Position Component Anchor (User Needs) Simon Wardley @swardley@erik_schon #ETB19

21. Wardley Maps Expected market changes Focus Outsource Outsource In-House In-House Off-the-Shelf Off-the-Shelf Off-the-Shelf EXAMPLE: Gaming Visualize evolution and guide choices Howard Rees @Howard_Rees@erik_schon #ETB19

22. 2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS © 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd To See and Enable a Bright Future ... Smart Tools + Human Collaboration = ❤ SUPERTRENDS + Crowd Sourcing = ❤ WARDLEY MAPS + Teamwork = ❤ @erik_schon #ETB19

23. www.erlang-solutions.com ESL 2016 | Internal use only www.erlang-solutions.com ESL 2019 | Internal use only The way to predict the future is to create it collaboratively - guided by e.g SUPERTRENDS and WARDLEY MAPS @erik_schon #ETB19

25. 2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS © 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd Thanks for Inspiration! Melissa Perri Rita Gunther McGrath Nilofer Merchant Chet Richards Simon Wardley Stockholm Lean Coffee Roger Martin Lars Tvede @erik_schon #ETB19

26. 2.0 YEARS OF ERLANG SOLUTIONS © 1999-2019 Erlang Solutions Ltd For Further Learning Blogs McDermott: Maturity Mapping McGrath: How to Stop Making Assumptions Rees: An Idiot’s Adventures in Wardley Mapping Tvede: There is No End to Innovation Wardley: An Introduction to Wardley Mapping Wardley: Of Wonders and Disruption Books McGrath: Seeing Around Corners Schön: The Art of Strategy – Steps Towards Business Agility Tvede: Supertrends in Technology Wardley: Wardley Maps Videos Lamb: Investing in Innovation McGrath: 8 Practices That Help You See Around Corners Schön: The Art of Strategy – Steps Towards Business Agility Wardley: Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones @erik_schon #ETB19