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Low‐Grade Wood Markets: 
Status in the Northeast
Summer 2017
Eric Kingsley
Innovative Natural Resource Solutions LLC
kingsley@inrsllc.com
Phone 207‐233‐9910
Innovative Natural Resource Solutions LLC
• Founded in 1994
• Offices in New Hampshire and Maine
• Focus at the intersection of forest industry, energy and 
economic development
• Services include: 
‐ consulting in renewable energy
‐ advocacy
‐ forest management and protection
‐ forest certification and sustainability 
• Clients from the private, non‐profit and government sectors
• Conducted work in all regions of North America
• www.inrsllc.com
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Sawlogs Pulpwood Biomass
Volume (Tons)
Value ($)
Volume and Value to Landowner of Products from a Timber Harvest
North East State Foresters 2013
All NH, 2010
Pulp and Paper
Since 1999, the Northern Forest 
region has lost 11 pulp mills
New York
‐ Deferiet
‐ Lyons Falls
New Hampshire
‐ Groveton
‐ Berlin
Maine
‐ Westbrook
‐ Bucksport
‐ Old Town
‐ Lincoln
‐ Millinocket
‐ East Millinocket
‐ Madison (May 2016)
 ‐
 1,000,000
 2,000,000
 3,000,000
 4,000,000
 5,000,000
 6,000,000
 7,000,000
 8,000,000
 9,000,000
 10,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e
Estimated Pulpwood Consumption by Maine Pulp Mills
Estimates Based Upon INRS Data
 ‐
 2,000,000
 4,000,000
 6,000,000
 8,000,000
 10,000,000
 12,000,000
2014 2016
Maine Pulpmill Wood Use
(tons)
Hardwood Spruce ‐ Fir Hemlock ‐ Pine
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Madison
East Millinocket
Lincoln
Bucksport
Millinocket
Old Town
Jay
Woodland
Rumford
Somerset
Maine Pulpwood Consumption by Mill
Green Tons
Coated Paper Market
Key Items from Verso bankruptcy filing – Verso emerged from bankruptcy July 2016
•Traditional markets face decline
•“The coated paper industry faces long‐term, 
structural decline” 
•Driven by a move to digital in key markets 
(magazines, catalogues)
•A strong dollar has increased imports
Emails you never expected…
INRS summer 2017 low grade markets
Pulp and Paper
• Pulp and paper mills remain region’s largest consumer of wood 
products, and represent significant fixed infrastructure.
• Mills produce a variety of products, including market pulp, 
communication papers (coated and uncoated), and tissue.  Each of 
these markets is unique.
• The Northern American paper industry has been shrinking, both in 
output and capacity.  Individual mills often do well, but new 
investment in production is extremely limited in the U.S.
• Maine will remain a paper producing state for well into the future
• I expect reduced pulpwood consumption, and reduced prices for 
pulpwood (a bunch of factors in this one, not just demand).
• The closures are NOT cyclical
Challenges to the Pulp & Paper Industry
• You will hear
• High taxes
• High energy costs
• High wood costs
• And so on
• There are all very real, and present real challenges to the 
industry
• Mills and regions now fighting over a shrinking pie
• They aren’t the fundamental issue, which is change in the 
marketplace, and a capital intensive industry that is hard to 
change with any reasonable speed
New Investment at Woodland Pulp
14
FIRST SALEABLE JUMBO ROLL
MARCH 16
• 2 new tissue machines
• ~$150 million in new 
investment
• Used New Markets Tax 
Credits
• 70 new employees
SAPPI Announced Investment
• $165 million rebuild of PM1 at 
Somerset Mill
• $25 million in new wood yard 
(October 2016 completion) 
• Clearly investing in the future 
of the mill, New England’s 
largest market for low‐grade 
wood
Catalyst Paper Seeking Investment
• Catalyst Paper (Rumford, Maine) 
currently seeking funding 
support for a new tissue 
machine
• Would diversify mill production 
–currently coated paper grade as 
primary product
• $56 million investment
• 62 new jobs
Biomass
INRS summer 2017 low grade markets
INRS summer 2017 low grade markets
Biomass 
Electricity
(MWh)
“Green” Attributes
(Renewable Energy Certificate)
Electricity (MWh)
(Wholesale)
 $‐
 $20
 $40
 $60
 $80
 $100
 $120
 $140
 $160
 $180
Average Monthly Wholesale Electricity Price
ISO New England
Average Monthly Wholesale Electricity Price
Trailing 12 Month Average
 $‐
 $20
 $40
 $60
 $80
 $100
 $120
 $140
 $160
 $180
 $‐
 $5.00
 $10.00
 $15.00
 $20.00
 $25.00
 $30.00
 $35.00
 $40.00
 $45.00
 $50.00
2015 2016 2017
CT Class 1 RECs (estimated) 
Source: Testimony (and verification through order) in 
DE 16‐850 ‐ELECTRIC RENEWABLE PORTFOLIO STANDARDS
Adjustment to Renewable Class Requirements
Order Maintaining Class III RPS Requirements for 2017 and Modifying Class I Useful 
Thermal RPS Requirements for 2016
Order Number 25,978
17‐Jan‐17
Offered $17 
In March 2017
What does it take to operate biomass in 2017?
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Revenue Expenses
Electricty RECs (CT) Fuel O&M
• Assumes:
• Electricity at average price for the 
past year ($31)
• RECs at recent broker quote ($24, 
which may be higher than current 
market)
• Biomass fuel at $25, 1.7 green tons 
per MWH
• O&M at $30 per MWh
• With these assumptions, this is not 
an attractive business
Do Higher REC Prices Make A Difference?
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Revenue Expenses
Electricty RECs (CT) Fuel O&M
• Assumes:
• Electricity at average price for the past 
year ($31)
• RECs at 90% of ACP cap ($55 x 90% = $49.50)
• Biomass fuel at $25, 1.7 green tons per 
MWH
• O&M at $30 per MWh
• With these assumptions, this is a 
borderline business, but making some 
money
Status of Biomass Plants
• In New Hampshire, SB 129 just 
passed, improving economics of 
6 legacy biomass plants
• Berlin BioPower (NH) has a PPA 
for up to 20 years (which would 
be ~2033)
• There is an above‐market upset 
trigger, which may be reached as 
early as 2019
• Would make operations of the 
facility much more exposed to the 
market
• Schiller Station (NH) part of 
Eversource divestiture of 
generation assets
• Sale terms call for continued 
operation of facility for continued 
operations of at least 18 months
• In Maine, state has a 2‐year, $13.6 
million effort to support 4 biomass 
plants
• Pinetree‐Ryegate (VT) has a PPA for 
~5 years
• Plainfield Renewable Energy (CT) 
sells most of its power under a PPA 
that runs through ~2028
Biomass Thermal
28
Northeast U.S. Pellet Manufacturers
Pellet Fuel Manufacturers in 
Northeast US
Operational as of June 2017
(>15,000 TPY Capacity)
10 Years Lookback in the Domestic U.S. 
Heating Pellet Industry
•Up Years 
 2005‐2006 – Hurricanes Katrina and Rita
 2007‐2008 – Dramatic spike in oil/natural gas 
prices
 2012‐2015 – Cold winters and steady increase in 
heating oil and propane
10 Years Lookback in the Domestic U.S. 
Heating Pellet Industry
•Down Years 
 2006‐2007 – Warm winter
 2009‐2010 – Recession, rapid drop in fossil heating 
fuel prices
 2015‐2016 – Record warm winter, sustained 
dramatic drop in fossil heating fuel prices
 2016‐2017 – More of the same
Biomass Heating in 
New Hampshire
• Wood pellet and wood chip thermal systems
• NH Wood Energy Council has interactive 
map
• Schools
• Hospitals
• Business
• Non‐profits
• Government
• https://www.nhwoodenergycouncil.org/
What is Next?
Projects in Development (which may or may not happen)
• Export of chips
• Eastport, Maine
• Searsport, Maine
• New pellet mills 
• Export and domestic
• Biofuels
• Efforts at stand‐alone, co‐location 
with forest industries
• Biomass thermal
• District (campus) heating?
• Biomass CHP 
• Co‐location with existing biomass 
plants
• Announcement of a pepper 
greenhouse in Jonesboro, Maine
• A number of sawmill / sawlog 
projects
• A stud mill
• Increased capacity at some 
sawmills
• CLT manufacturing
The Wood
The Markets
The glass is half full…
• We have markets, and are incredibly well positioned compared to 
other parts of the country
• We have the forest resource and supply infrastructure (landowners, 
loggers, entire forest industry ecosystem) that would make other 
regions jealous
• We live in close proximity to (and are part of) the greatest collection 
of consumers in the history of the world
• It is cold in New England, we heat buildings, we need process heat
• There may never be a better time to be develop a project or 
technology that uses low‐grade, particularly softwood
I would like to add you to my email lists
Send an email to kingsley@inrsllc.com to be placed on our monthly email list, which provides information
on markets and developments of interest to the region’s forestry community. I will also add you to my FRA
email list, and you will receive invitations to monthly dinner forums and other regional information.
Eric Kingsley
Innovative Natural Resource Solutions LLC
Phone 207‐233‐9910
Email kingsley@inrsllc.com

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