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Public Opinion and Political Socialization
At 2:18 am on Nov 9, 2000, one of the major TV networks made the call that GW Bush would become the 43 rd  president of th...
What is public opinion? <ul><li>What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time. </l...
 
Efforts to influence Public Opinion <ul><li>The Federalist Papers were one of the first major attempts to change public op...
Political Socialization <ul><li>The process through which an individual acquired particular political orientations; the le...
How is Public Opinion measured? <ul><ul><li>Traditional Opinion Polls- “Lets find out about X and Y” </li></ul></ul><ul><u...
Shortcomings of Polling <ul><li>Sampling Error or margin of error- a measure of the accuracy of a poll </li></ul><ul><li>L...
POLITICAL PARTIES <ul><li>Political Party- a group of office holders, candidates, activists, and voters who identify with ...
The Golden Age <ul><li>From 1860 to today- same two major parties (Democrats and Republicans) have dominated elections in ...
 
Modern Era versus the Golden Age <ul><li>1930’s- social services began to be seen as a right of citizenship rather than a ...
The Parties Endure <ul><li>Parties have evolved through history and have been reliable vehicles for mass participation in ...
Party Platforms <ul><li>RNC </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.gop.com/media/2004platform.pdf </li></ul><ul><li>DNC </li></ul><u...
National Conventions
 
<ul><li>National Conventions- a party meeting held in the presidential election year for the purpose of nominating a presi...
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Public Opinion

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Public Opinion

  1. 1. Public Opinion and Political Socialization
  2. 2. At 2:18 am on Nov 9, 2000, one of the major TV networks made the call that GW Bush would become the 43 rd president of the US. All the major networks quickly followed suit. But , as we all know now, that was not the end of it. As demands for recounts and litigation went on, it became a field day for pollsters and their critics. In fact, the orginal call awarding Florida to AL Gore came early in the evening and was based not on actually vote totals, but on projections from the Voter News Service, an exit poll service used by new organizations. Between Nov 11-12, 2000: 55% favored a recount (80% of Gore voters, 20% of Bush Voters Between No 25-26, 2000: 51% said Bush was the real winner 15% said Gore was the real winner 32% were unsure
  3. 3. What is public opinion? <ul><li>What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time. </li></ul><ul><li>Public Opinion is determined through public opinion polls which are interviews or surveys with samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feeling and beliefs of the entire population. </li></ul>
  4. 5. Efforts to influence Public Opinion <ul><li>The Federalist Papers were one of the first major attempts to change public opinion and gain support for the newly drafted US Constitution. </li></ul>
  5. 6. Political Socialization <ul><li>The process through which an individual acquired particular political orientations; the learning process by which people acquire their political beliefs and values </li></ul><ul><ul><li>FAMILY </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SCHOOL and PEERS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>MASS MEDIA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SOCIAL GROUPS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Religion </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Race and Ethnicity </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Gender </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Age </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Region </li></ul></ul></ul>
  6. 7. How is Public Opinion measured? <ul><ul><li>Traditional Opinion Polls- “Lets find out about X and Y” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Random Sampling- A method of poll selection that gives each person in a group the same chance of being selected </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stratified sampling- A Variation of random sampling- sets of counties and standard metropolitan statistical areas are then randomly selected in proportion to the total national population </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Push Polls- Polls taken for the purpose of providing information on the opponent that would lead respondents to vote against the candidate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tracking Polls- continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise of fall in support </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Exit Polls- Polls conducted at selected polling places on Election Day </li></ul></ul>
  7. 8. Shortcomings of Polling <ul><li>Sampling Error or margin of error- a measure of the accuracy of a poll </li></ul><ul><li>Limited Respondent Options- Polls can be inaccurate when they limit responses (ex. If you are asked “How do you like this class?” and are given only like and dislike options, your full sentiments may not be tapped if you like the class very much or feel only so-so about it) </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of Information- public has little information on what they are being polled on </li></ul>
  8. 9. POLITICAL PARTIES <ul><li>Political Party- a group of office holders, candidates, activists, and voters who identify with a group label and seek to elect to public office individuals who run under than label </li></ul><ul><li>Machine- a party organization that recruits its members with tangible incentives and is characterized b y a high degree of control over member activity </li></ul>
  9. 10. The Golden Age <ul><li>From 1860 to today- same two major parties (Democrats and Republicans) have dominated elections in the U.S. </li></ul><ul><li>1874-1912 (End of post Civil War Reconstruction until the Progressive Era Reforms) - featured remarkable stability with the two major parties (which is rare in most democratic republics, parties come and go) </li></ul><ul><li>Machine politics very prevalent during this time- led to high turnouts (75% for presidential elections) </li></ul>
  10. 12. Modern Era versus the Golden Age <ul><li>1930’s- social services began to be seen as a right of citizenship rather than a privilege extended in exchange for support for a party </li></ul><ul><li>Also their was a decrease in the flow of immigrants </li></ul><ul><li>Direct Primary- a selection of party candidates through the ballots of qualified voters rather than at party nomination conventions </li></ul><ul><li>Civil service Laws- cut down on spoils system </li></ul><ul><li>Issue Oriented Politics- Politics that focuses on specific issues rather than on party or candidate </li></ul><ul><li>Ticket Splitting- to vote for candidates of different parties for various offices in the same election </li></ul>
  11. 13. The Parties Endure <ul><li>Parties have evolved through history and have been reliable vehicles for mass participation in elections </li></ul><ul><li>Political Parties help mobilize support </li></ul><ul><li>Parties have National Party Platforms </li></ul><ul><li>(a statement of the general and specific philosophy and policy goals of the political party, usually approved during a National Convention </li></ul>
  12. 14. Party Platforms <ul><li>RNC </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.gop.com/media/2004platform.pdf </li></ul><ul><li>DNC </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.democrats.org/a/2005/09/the_2004_democr.php </li></ul>
  13. 15. National Conventions
  14. 17. <ul><li>National Conventions- a party meeting held in the presidential election year for the purpose of nominating a presidential and vice presidential ticket and adopting a party platform </li></ul><ul><li>Party structure not based in Washington D.C. but in the states and localities </li></ul><ul><li>Except for campaign finances, all governmental regulation of political parties is left to the states </li></ul>

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