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Arab Oil Exporters: Coping with a New Global Oil Order

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Nadir Mohammed - the World Bank
ERF Conference on “Arab Oil Exporters: Coping with a New Global Oil Order”

Kuwait, November 26-27, 2017
www.erf.org.eg

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Arab Oil Exporters: Coping with a New Global Oil Order

  1. 1. Policy Conference on “Arab Oil Exporters: Coping with a New Global Oil Order” Nadir Mohammed, the World Bank 27 November 2017
  2. 2. THE NEW WORLD ORDER: • Rapid Pace of Technology Development • Rising Anti-globalization and Populism Measures • Climate Change and Natural Disasters • Geopolitical Tensions • Slowdown in Potential Growth • Shale Oil 2
  3. 3. WHAT IS NEW? 3
  4. 4. HOW DID GCC & OTHER OIL EXPORTERS RESPONDED? • Realization that this shock is likely to be permanent. • Embarked on reforms after initial countercyclical policies. • Marked subsidy reforms in GCC countries. • Rationalization of public spending (both investment and current). • Consistent reforms of business climate (Doing Business in KSA, UAE and Kuwait). • Strengthening social safety nets ahead of the reforms. • Initiating public sector reforms 4
  5. 5. LESSONS FROM EXPERIENCE & THINKING AHEAD • Importance of Macroeconomic Management and Fiscal Rules • Need for Optimal Strategies for Conversion of Below-Ground Wealth to Above-Ground Wealth • The Pace of Conversion is Important • A New Social Contract (UBI and Citizens Account) • Economic Transformation & Diversification • Saudi Arabia PIF (and ARAMCO IPO). 5

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