ITU Institute of Social Science

ITU Institute of Social Science
ITU Institute of Social Science March 21, 2023 Global Marketing: A Macro(economic) Perspective Prepared and Presented by: Eren OCAKVERDİ Research and Analytics Consultant eren.ocakverdi@yapikredi.com.tr
External factors affecting a firm 2 Firm Economy Politics Social culture Legal Environment / Sustainability Technology
Firm Economy Politics Social culture Legal Environment / Sustainability Technology Impacts are uneven and not mutually exclusive 3
4 Determine the relevant economic factors and long- term trends. Analyse the impact of these on markets and marketing activities. Do they present an opportunity from marketing standpoint? Find a way to seize the opportunity. Do they pose a threat to marketing efforts? Find a way to mitigate the adverse effects. Analysis of economic environment
Basic concepts (Gross Domestic Product) 5 Consumption (Private + Public) Investment (Machinery + Construction) Exports (Goods + Services) Imports (Goods + Services) GDP Change in GDP Change in Volume Change in Population Change in Real consumption or production Change in Prices Inflation
Basic concepts (Demand-pull vs Cost-push inflation) 6 Money Supply Bank Loans Consumer Debt Demand increase Inflation (CPI) Wages, raw material prices, taxes Cost increase Inflation (PPI) Pass-through Source: CBRT Inflation Booklet, 2004.
Real economic growth around the world in 2019 Source: IMF Data Mapper. 7
Customer-Supplier connections after COVID-19 Source: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2303g.htm 10
Impact of COVID-19 on Global Manufacturing* Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2021. * Contribution to year-over-year percent change; percentage points. 11 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Primary metals Machinery Electronics Electrical equipment Motor vehicles Other durables Chemicals Petroleum Other nondurables Total
Share of Activity Impacted by COVID-19* (%) 12 0 9 11 12 14 14 14 14 14 17 23 23 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 48 48 48 50 80 86 Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing Financial intermediation Public admin Mining and quarrying Air transport Electricity, gas and water supply Land transport and transport via pipelines Other transport Water transport Post and telecommunications Education Health and social work Other business activities Basic metals and fabricated metal Oil and chemicals Electrical and optical equipment Food, beverages and tobacco Machinery, nec; manufacturing, nec; recycling Pulp, paper, printing and publishing Textiles, wearing apparel and leather products Transport equipment Wood and products of wood and cork Retail trade Sales repair motor vehicles Wholesale trade Other community, social and personal services Construction Hotels and restaurants Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2021. * Reflects the degree of teleworkability and each of sector’s activity.
Simulated impact of Russia-Ukraine war on GDP Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022 13 -1.4 -1.0 -0.9 -1.1 GSYH (% points) Euro area OECD US World
Estimated impact of an energy shock (by Country)* Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022 * Based on a reduction of 20% of direct and indirect imported energy inputs (%). 14 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1 -2.4 -2.5 Ireland Luxembourg Denmark Iceland France UK Norway Estonia Germany Slovenia Netherlands Finland Switzerland EU-22 Sweden Italy Latvia Spain Avusturia Belgium Poland Portugal Czechia Slovakia Hungary TÜRKİYE Greece Lithuania
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022 * Based on a reduction of 20% of direct and indirect imported energy inputs (%). 15 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -2.0 -2.2 -2.7 -2.7 -2.8 -3.2 -12.0 Pharmaceuticals Construction Water supply & waste management Computers & electronic equipment Warehousing Textiles Mining support service activities Machinery and equipment Food,drink and tobacco Motor vehicles Wood and wood products Agriculture Electrical equipment Paper and printing Fabricated metals Rubber and plastics Land transport Water transport Chemicals Air transport Basic metals Mining of energy products Electricity and gas supply Refined petroleum products Estimated impact of an energy shock (by Industry)*
Source: EUROSTAT, BLS. 16 Growth in selected countries (annual, %) -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 2005Q1 2005Q4 2006Q3 2007Q2 2008Q1 2008Q4 2009Q3 2010Q2 2011Q1 2011Q4 2012Q3 2013Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2015Q3 2016Q2 2017Q1 2017Q4 2018Q3 2019Q2 2020Q1 2020Q4 2021Q3 2022Q2 US Germany France Italy UK Japan
Inflation around the world in 2019 Source: IMF Data Mapper. 17
Inflation around the world in 2022 Source: IMF Data Mapper. 18
Bloomberg Commodity Index* ($) Source: Bloomberg * Maximum value reached during the month. 19 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 Jan 05 Oct 05 Jul 06 Apr 07 Jan 08 Oct 08 Jul 09 Apr 10 Jan 11 Oct 11 Jul 12 Apr 13 Jan 14 Oct 14 Jul 15 Apr 16 Jan 17 Oct 17 Jul 18 Apr 19 Jan 20 Oct 20 Jul 21 Apr 22 Jan 23 Oct 23 (USD)
Commodity price indices (2010 = 100) Source: World Bank. 20 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0 500.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0 500.0 Jan 05 Nov 05 Sep 06 Jul 07 May 08 Mar 09 Jan 10 Nov 10 Sep 11 Jul 12 May 13 Mar 14 Jan 15 Nov 15 Sep 16 Jul 17 May 18 Mar 19 Jan 20 Nov 20 Sep 21 Jul 22 May 23 Energy Non-energy Food Natural gas
Freight prices* ($) Source: https://fbx.freightos.com * Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) provides 40' container (FEU) indices for ocean freight. . 21 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Jan 17 May 17 Sep 17 Jan 18 May 18 Sep 18 Jan 19 May 19 Sep 19 Jan 20 May 20 Sep 20 Jan 21 May 21 Sep 21 Jan 22 May 22 Sep 22 Jan 23 May 23 Sep 23
Simulated impact of Russia-Ukraine war on inflation Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022 22 2.0 2.0 1.4 2.5 Inflation (% points) Euro area OECD US World
Commodity price shock due to Russia-Ukraine war Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2022 * Percentage change from January 2022 average 23 3.5 7.4 9.1 10.0 14.1 17.0 34.8 42.2 63.4 77.3 88.4 Copper Zinc Platinum Gold Iron ore Aluminium Palladium Maize Nickel Fertilizer Wheat
Source: EUROSTAT, BLS. 24 Inflation in selected countries (annual, %) -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Jan 05 Oct 05 Jul 06 Apr 07 Jan 08 Oct 08 Jul 09 Apr 10 Jan 11 Oct 11 Jul 12 Apr 13 Jan 14 Oct 14 Jul 15 Apr 16 Jan 17 Oct 17 Jul 18 Apr 19 Jan 20 Oct 20 Jul 21 Apr 22 Jan 23 Oct 23 US Germany France Italy UK Japan
FED policy rate expectations* Source: Bloomberg *FED Funds Futures 25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75 6.00 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Jun 21 Sep 21 Dec 21 Mar 22 Jun 22 Sep 22 Dec 22 Mar 23 Jun 23 Sep 23 Dec 23 Mar 24 Jun 24 Sep 24 Dec 24 30-Sep-19 25-Mar-20 23-Sep-20 16-Mar-21 13-Dec-21 16-Jun-22 22-Sep-22 15-Dec-22 17-Mar-23 (%) (%)
26 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2021 Response of Core Inflation to Monetary Tightening -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0 4 8 12 16 20 % points Number of quarters after monetary tightening starts Uncertainty band (90%) Impact on core inflation
27 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2021 Response of Unemployment to Monetary Tightening -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 0 4 8 12 16 20 % points Number of quarters after monetary tightening starts Uncertainty band (90%) Impact on unemployment rate
Economic policy uncertainty 28 Source: www.policyuncertainty.com 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0 500.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0 500.0 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18 Jan 19 Jul 19 Jan 20 Jul 20 Jan 21 Jul 21 Jan 22 Jul 22 Jan 23 Jul 23 Europe US World
Geopolitical risks (1985-2019=100) Source: www.policyuncertainty.com 29 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Jan 05 Oct 05 Jul 06 Apr 07 Jan 08 Oct 08 Jul 09 Apr 10 Jan 11 Oct 11 Jul 12 Apr 13 Jan 14 Oct 14 Jul 15 Apr 16 Jan 17 Oct 17 Jul 18 Apr 19 Jan 20 Oct 20 Jul 21 Apr 22 Jan 23 Oct 23 Global Türkiye (right scale) Arab Spring Invasion of Crimea Russia-Ukraine War
Source: IMF projections from WEO reports. 30 Future will always remain uncertain (growth, %) -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Oct-21 Apr-22 Oct-22
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