DEVELOPING A WORKFORCE
PLAN TO ENABLE EXPLOSIVE,
 OUT OF THE BOX GROWTH

                    ERE Expo
                 Sep...
Dr. John Sullivan’s summary bio
  Former Chief Talent Officer of Agilent Technologies, the HP spinoff with
   43,000 empl...
Dr. Sullivan’s current books




On-boarding       HR Strategy               Productivity
Metrics




Recruiting     Emplo...
The basic premise for today is…
Can we agree that the basic premise
                      turnaround in recruiting is
comi...
Plan “B” is…
 Do nothing and spend your time bemoaning the
                     basic premise

  fact that you have no bu...
Topics for today
1.  A definition of workforce planning

2.  Common errors made during a downturn

3.  The 4 phases of a t...
A definition of

“Competitive advantage” workforce planning




                                             7
Competitive advantage workforce planning defined
 An integrated… forward looking plan…
 designed to predict (what, when, h...
Part 1

Common Talent Management errors

    made during a downturn




                                  9
Workforce planning/ recruiting mistakes to avoid
The mistakes organization’s have made:
                       basic premi...
Workforce planning/ recruiting mistakes to avoid
Firms have…
 Furloughed and laid off in such a public way that it
  may ...
Part 2

The four distinct phases of a turnaround plan



Note: where you the various actions in the phases
          varie...
The four phases of a turnaround plan


Phase 1          Creating a turnaround plan


               Actions immediately be...
Phase 1

Creating the turnaround plan




                               14
Action steps in creating your plan
Work with the CFO/ COO
 They are the undisputed kings of metrics and
  budgets

 Make...
These factors indicate business impact to a CFO

Use the CFO’s favorite words in your bus. case
  Increased revenue/ prof...
Top 10 CFO project approval factors
The top factors that get marketing & finance
proposals funded:
1. High ROI and other b...
Additional action steps for creating your
            turnaround plan




                                            18
Action steps in creating your plan
Forecast when the turnaround will begin
 Forecast a range not a single date
 Ask the ...
Precursors indicating you have a surplus of labor

Internal precursors of a turnaround in hiring
  Increase in revenue or...
Action steps in creating your plan
Forecast hiring volume needs
 Find the expected corporate revenue growth rate

 Use t...
Action steps in creating your plan
Consider developing remote work jobs

 To expand the available talent pool

 To incre...
Action steps in creating your plan
Forecast the type of talent needed
 Identify the positions with projected retirements
...
Action steps in creating your plan
Prioritize your customers for recruiting/retention
 Revenue generating and revenue imp...
Any questions at this point




                              25
Phase 2

Actions to take immediately before (30-90 days)
            the turnaround begins




                           ...
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
Develop a turnaround timetable
 Develop a detailed timeline with milestone...
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
Conduct a competitive analysis
 Analyze your "talent competitors" and thei...
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
Begin building a “talent pool”
 Pre-identify and begin to build relationsh...
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
Identify recruiting resources that utilize “other
people’s time”
 Re-energ...
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
Begin re-building your “employer brand” image
 Assess whether candidate “j...
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
Assess new sourcing tools and strategies
 Select from among the new genera...
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
Assess your web site
 Be authentic (Test your credibility)

 Allow custom...
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
Upgrade internal movement tools
 Identify IM problems, barriers and roadbl...
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
Upgrade reference checking processes
 Assess whether lying and misrepresen...
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
Consider re-assessing your ATS situation
 Be aware of lower-cost options

...
Steps just before the turnaround begins
Develop effective WP /recruiting metrics
 Accuracy of forecasts
 Number of vacan...
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
Begin hiring new recruiters
 Develop new assessment tools to determine
  w...
Action steps just before the turnaround begins
Cherry pick “soon to be recruited” talent
 Estimate job areas where your c...
Phase 3

Actions immediately after the turnaround begins




                                              40
Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
Fortify retention efforts
 Assume turnover rates will double (Generational ...
Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
Fortify retirement efforts
 Assume retirement rates will change
  dramatica...
Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
Improved candidate closing tools
 Assume that your image may be damaged
 A...
Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
Re-energize and re-educate hiring managers
 Assume that their skills are ru...
Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
Anticipate potential recruiting problems
 Make a list of anticipated recrui...
Part 3

And finally… benchmark firms to study




                                        46
Best practice examples in workforce planning
Benchmark firms include:
 Capital one – virtual if – then simulations, varia...
Best practice examples in workforce planning
Benchmark firms include:
 KTL Tencor – the whole business stops for a
  mont...
Note
            I have a 244 page e-book

THE WORKFORCE PLANNING HANDBOOK

 It is available for free for evaluation purpo...
Did I make you think?




How about some more questions ?



   www.drjohnsullivan.com
                                  50
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Workforce Planning to Enable Explosive, Out-of-the-box Growth

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Workforce Planning to Enable Explosive, Out-of-the-box Growth

  1. 1. DEVELOPING A WORKFORCE PLAN TO ENABLE EXPLOSIVE, OUT OF THE BOX GROWTH ERE Expo September 11, 2009 ©Dr. John Sullivan Advisor to Management, Author and Professor www.drjohnsullivan.com
  2. 2. Dr. John Sullivan’s summary bio   Former Chief Talent Officer of Agilent Technologies, the HP spinoff with 43,000 employees   Has advised over 250 major organizations in 30 different countries. His appeal is so broad, that work has been translated into 23 languages   Monthly column in Workforce Management Magazine   Columnist for the Electronic Recruiting Daily   Author of eight books and more than 750 articles.   SHRM called him “One of the industries most respected strategists” & the Best Practice Institute honored him as one of the Top 10 Leading Thinkers in HR   Staffing.org noted that he was “the father of HR Metrics” and Fast Company magazine called him the “Michael Jordan of hiring”   He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Fortune, the NY Times, the Financial Times, CFO Magazine and have been interviewed by CNN and the CBS and ABC nightly news   Currently he is a Professor of Management at San Francisco State University and the chief consultant of the management advisory firm DJS 2
  3. 3. Dr. Sullivan’s current books On-boarding HR Strategy Productivity Metrics Recruiting Employee referrals Employer Branding Recruiting tools
  4. 4. The basic premise for today is… Can we agree that the basic premise turnaround in recruiting is coming… And even though we do not know precisely when  It’s still a wise move to develop a plan that enables you to take the appropriate actions…  Before the turnaround occurs  And right when the turnaround starts 4
  5. 5. Plan “B” is…  Do nothing and spend your time bemoaning the basic premise fact that you have no budget  Looking unprepared and being overwhelmed when the turnaround does occur  Producing poor or mediocre results because you waited too late to develop a plan and a strategy 5
  6. 6. Topics for today 1.  A definition of workforce planning 2.  Common errors made during a downturn 3.  The 4 phases of a turnaround plan 4.  Benchmark firms to model after 6
  7. 7. A definition of “Competitive advantage” workforce planning 7
  8. 8. Competitive advantage workforce planning defined An integrated… forward looking plan… designed to predict (what, when, how much)… and then cause action. In order to mitigate people problems… and take advantage of opportunities to improve the “talent pipeline”… so that you have the needed “people capabilities”… to meet business goals… and to build a competitive advantage! 8
  9. 9. Part 1 Common Talent Management errors made during a downturn 9
  10. 10. Workforce planning/ recruiting mistakes to avoid The mistakes organization’s have made: basic premise  This major accounting firm eliminated the majority of their recruiting staff because recruiting now will be so easy, it will be like “shooting fish in a barrel”  This biotech firm dropped it’s most senior recruiters and only retained the “cheap ones”, because recruiting is merely a transaction  This government froze all hiring (right when the best talent was available) and furloughed all, even in revenue-generating positions > 10
  11. 11. Workforce planning/ recruiting mistakes to avoid Firms have…  Furloughed and laid off in such a public way that it may have damaged their employer brand  Reverted back to arrogant, customer damaging “candidate abuse” and “death by interview”  Assumed they could continue to utilize the old tools… (job boards, ads, static corporate pages) while ignoring mobile phones, texting, social networks, rec. videos, blogs, podcasts, remote video interviews, contests, talent communities etc.  Been overly optimistic in workforce planning 11
  12. 12. Part 2 The four distinct phases of a turnaround plan Note: where you the various actions in the phases varies with the firm/ situation 12
  13. 13. The four phases of a turnaround plan Phase 1 Creating a turnaround plan Actions immediately before the Phase 2 turnaround Actions during the first three Phase 3 months of the turnaround Phase 4 Ongoing operations 13
  14. 14. Phase 1 Creating the turnaround plan 14
  15. 15. Action steps in creating your plan Work with the CFO/ COO  They are the undisputed kings of metrics and budgets  Make the business case showing the impact on their favorite business areas and their key project approval criteria two examples > 15
  16. 16. These factors indicate business impact to a CFO Use the CFO’s favorite words in your bus. case   Increased revenue/ profit/ higher margins   Higher productivity   Higher customer retention / satisfaction rates   Increased market share   A stronger brand   Higher stock price   A higher rate of product innovation If you don’t directly impact these, forget it! 16
  17. 17. Top 10 CFO project approval factors The top factors that get marketing & finance proposals funded: 1. High ROI and other business impacts 3. Low initial investment 4. High success rate/ low risk of failure 5. Immediate start up 6. Short payback period 7. It uses accurate results metrics and counting 8. No new headcount is required (Or it is reduced) 9. “Consequences of failure” is built in 10. A competitive advantage is created 11. Increased productivity (Profit per people dollar) 17
  18. 18. Additional action steps for creating your turnaround plan 18
  19. 19. Action steps in creating your plan Forecast when the turnaround will begin  Forecast a range not a single date  Ask the CFO for their projected dates`  Look for “leading indicator firms” from previous turnarounds  Look for “external economic indicators” from previous turnarounds (Housing sales, interest rates, consumer spending, an employment rate etc.  Identify previous internal precursors or warning signs > 19
  20. 20. Precursors indicating you have a surplus of labor Internal precursors of a turnaround in hiring   Increase in revenue or forecasted orders   Increase in hours for workers or OT   Unfreezing raises and/ or promotions   Travel budgets are unfrozen   Contingent hiring increases   Key SBU budgets are increased   Others?   Releasing the freeze on hiring comes next 20
  21. 21. Action steps in creating your plan Forecast hiring volume needs  Find the expected corporate revenue growth rate  Use the ideal revenue per employee ratio to predict headcount  Forecast the available volume of internal talent (Reduced by projected turnover and retirements)  Develop a “yield model” or funnel (MS, Cisco) 21
  22. 22. Action steps in creating your plan Consider developing remote work jobs  To expand the available talent pool  To increase productivity and cut costs (Best Buy) 22
  23. 23. Action steps in creating your plan Forecast the type of talent needed  Identify the positions with projected retirements or turnover  Identify growth regions  Identify rapid growth business units  Identify time-to-market requirements  Identify skill requirements  Identify the needed innovation rates 23
  24. 24. Action steps in creating your plan Prioritize your customers for recruiting/retention  Revenue generating and revenue impact jobs  Mission-critical jobs  Key business units  Key regions  Key leaders/managers  Retention - “High risk of leaving” individuals  Retention - Individuals with “key future skills”  Retention – Top performers, game changers and innovators 24
  25. 25. Any questions at this point 25
  26. 26. Phase 2 Actions to take immediately before (30-90 days) the turnaround begins 26
  27. 27. Action steps just before the turnaround begins Develop a turnaround timetable  Develop a detailed timeline with milestones.  Ensure that all possible actions and their owners are on the timeline and in the turnaround plan 27
  28. 28. Action steps just before the turnaround begins Conduct a competitive analysis  Analyze your "talent competitors" and their growth plans from the last downturn  Forecast when they are likely to ramp up hiring  Forecast which jobs they are likely to initially focus on  Identify what tools they are likely to use… so that you can counter them with more effective tools 28
  29. 29. Action steps just before the turnaround begins Begin building a “talent pool”  Pre-identify and begin to build relationships with the 100 “most wanted” game changers in your industry (EA, MS)  Revisit offer turndowns, semifinalists and “almost qualified” former candidates  Approach corporate alumni /boomerangs to gauge their interest in returning 29
  30. 30. Action steps just before the turnaround begins Identify recruiting resources that utilize “other people’s time”  Re-energize your employee referral program (Add exec referrals, college referrals, social network referrals and e-referral cards)  Encourage attendees and speakers at professional events to bring back “three great names”  Encourage and educate your employee social network users how to attract potential candidates 30
  31. 31. Action steps just before the turnaround begins Begin re-building your “employer brand” image  Assess whether candidate “job acceptance criteria” have changed  Assess your brand negatives online (Google alerts) and among university students (Universum)  Remember your employer brand is now determined by others (MS), so use the media, social networks, Twitter etc. to have “others” spread the word about your differentiated “well-managed” and “best place to work” factors 31
  32. 32. Action steps just before the turnaround begins Assess new sourcing tools and strategies  Select from among the new generation of recruiting strategies  Referrals and direct sourcing are top  Utilize your own top performing employees to identify their most utilized communications channels using a “how would we find you again” process/survey  Utilize sampling methods and metrics to identify the tools that actually generate the highest quality candidates, quality of hire and ROI 32
  33. 33. Action steps just before the turnaround begins Assess your web site  Be authentic (Test your credibility)  Allow customized messages  Video’s are powerful  Their power is diminishing vs. Glassdoor.com etc. 33
  34. 34. Action steps just before the turnaround begins Upgrade internal movement tools  Identify IM problems, barriers and roadblocks  Improve the availability of information about “where best to move” internally for increased pay, promotion, job security etc.  Consider utilizing recruiters to proactively internally move “overdue” employees (Microsoft, Booz Allen) 34
  35. 35. Action steps just before the turnaround begins Upgrade reference checking processes  Assess whether lying and misrepresentation rates have increased significantly  Be aware of identity theft (I’m not really that person)  Be aware of the “nurse of the year” 35
  36. 36. Action steps just before the turnaround begins Consider re-assessing your ATS situation  Be aware of lower-cost options  Be aware of CRM options  Be aware of vendor reliability 36
  37. 37. Steps just before the turnaround begins Develop effective WP /recruiting metrics  Accuracy of forecasts  Number of vacancy days for key positions  On-the-job performance of new-hires  Retention rate of top-performing new-hires  Performance turnover  Diversity rates in professional positions  Percentage of internal leadership vacancies filled by individuals on the succession plan  Convert all metrics to dollars of revenue impact 37
  38. 38. Action steps just before the turnaround begins Begin hiring new recruiters  Develop new assessment tools to determine whether recruiters can utilize next-generation tools  Pre-identify and build relationships with the best Note: Only do select hiring of recruiters before the turnaround actually begins  Then, hire a percentage as contract recruiters in case this turnaround is a “false start” 38
  39. 39. Action steps just before the turnaround begins Cherry pick “soon to be recruited” talent  Estimate job areas where your competitors will initially begin recruiting  Use competitive intelligence and visit the corporate site/job boards to estimate when competition for talent will increase  Consider a talent SWAP program (Slide)  “Pull the trigger” and hire all you can afford before the competition starts 39
  40. 40. Phase 3 Actions immediately after the turnaround begins 40
  41. 41. Steps immediately after the turnaround begins Fortify retention efforts  Assume turnover rates will double (Generational turnover)  Consider a “mass-personalized” retention strategy (vs. a peanut butter strategy)  Ask key employees “why they stay”  “Re-recruit” key employees  Consider post-exit interviews  Consider dumping bad-managers 41
  42. 42. Steps immediately after the turnaround begins Fortify retirement efforts  Assume retirement rates will change dramatically based on stock valuations and healthcare options (Leadership gap)  Influence key employees to stay longer  Accurately predict who is likely to retire  Consider part time “after retirement” work  Develop “remote work” options as an alternative 42
  43. 43. Steps immediately after the turnaround begins Improved candidate closing tools  Assume that your image may be damaged  Assume that candidates have changed their acceptance criteria  During on-boarding ask “what worked” and “what didn’t”  Determine how housing issues will impact the potential relocations 43
  44. 44. Steps immediately after the turnaround begins Re-energize and re-educate hiring managers  Assume that their skills are rusty and their approaches are outdated  Make the business case to individual managers that it is worth the time to invest in recruiting  Utilize internal social networks and wiki’s to educate hiring managers 44
  45. 45. Steps immediately after the turnaround begins Anticipate potential recruiting problems  Make a list of anticipated recruiting “growing pains” based on the last recession  Utilize “if – then scenarios” to “test” to see if your team is ready for all high probability problems and opportunities  Consider offering “talent opportunity” alerts  Consider technology/ labor alternatives 45
  46. 46. Part 3 And finally… benchmark firms to study 46
  47. 47. Best practice examples in workforce planning Benchmark firms include:  Capital one – virtual if – then simulations, variable timeframe with SBU, 20 person team  Microsoft – three-year recruiting funding window  Google – statistical algorithm for forecasting who will quit  Booz Allen – speeding up internal movement and rotations  WellPoint – external candidates as part of their succession plan 47
  48. 48. Best practice examples in workforce planning Benchmark firms include:  KTL Tencor – the whole business stops for a month to plan, with quarterly revision  Intel (people roadmap)  Orcaeyes – a new generation of predictive software  City of Sunnyvale (Ca) - utilizes five-year workforce planning model 48
  49. 49. Note I have a 244 page e-book THE WORKFORCE PLANNING HANDBOOK It is available for free for evaluation purposes. JohnS@sfsu.edu 49
  50. 50. Did I make you think? How about some more questions ? www.drjohnsullivan.com 50

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