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A Tour of the Recruiting World


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Kevin Wheeler\'s presentation from the ERE Expo 2008 Fall.

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A Tour of the Recruiting World

  1. 1. What Recruiting Around the World Looks Like Today Kevin Wheeler EREXPO Florida 2008 Hollywood, Florida 29 October 2008
  2. 2. Incredible Decade – 1998-2008 <ul><li>Rise of China & India </li></ul><ul><li>Expansion of global trade and markets </li></ul><ul><li>Shifting labor patterns after 9/11 </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile workforce </li></ul><ul><li>Talent demands soaring, while supply is uncertain. </li></ul>
  3. 3. It Ain’t Over Yet!
  4. 4. Growth- GDP Comparisons Latin America & Caribbean East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia South Asia Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Source Yasushi Kaito, NEC
  5. 5. What We’re Seeing Today <ul><li>Europe </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lower demand </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fewer open positions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Applications up </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Middle East </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher demand </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Many open positions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Talent shortages </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. What We’re Seeing Today <ul><li>India </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dampening of demand slightly </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Still highly competitive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Demand for good people </li></ul></ul><ul><li>China </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Slower, but still robust </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Uncertainty in manufacturing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Service sector strong </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. What We’re Seeing Today <ul><li>Australia </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fear, a bit slower </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Still tremendous shortages </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on development </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Southeast Asia </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A bit softer demand </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Talent shortages </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. EUROPE
  10. 10. Europe is 5 on a 10 Scale <ul><li>Concern and Caution </li></ul><ul><li>Significant slowing of employment growth </li></ul>1 10 Can’t Meet Demand No Demand 5
  11. 11. Growth of service jobs: From <40% to >60% Source: Enzo Mingione - University of Milan-Bicocca
  12. 12. Female Employment Rates Source: Enzo Mingione - University of Milan-Bicocca
  13. 13. Male Employment Trends Source: Enzo Mingione - University of Milan-Bicocca
  14. 14. Temporary Employment Trends Source: Enzo Mingione - University of Milan-Bicocca Temporary employment (% of employees) Source: Oecd 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 France Germany Italy Spain Sweden United Kingdom
  15. 15. Self-employment Trends Source: Enzo Mingione - University of Milan-Bicocca Self-employment (% of employees in industry and services) Source: Eurostat 0 5 10 15 20 25 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 France Germany Italy Spain Sweden United Kingdom
  16. 16. Temporary Employment <ul><li>Increase in all countries </li></ul><ul><li>Concentrated among young people (15-24 y.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More than 50% in Spain, Germany, France and Sweden </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Slightly higher among women </li></ul><ul><li>Mostly between 8 and 15% of employees </li></ul>
  17. 17. MIDDLE EAST
  18. 18. Trends <ul><li>Demand for talent strong </li></ul><ul><li>Firms like KPMG hiring heavily </li></ul><ul><li>Many issues. . . </li></ul>1 10 Can’t Meet Demand No Demand 8
  19. 19. Middle East Data : Arab Human Development Report 2003, UNDP US Bureau of Census 2002 ILO Global Employment Trends Slow Economic Growth GDP growth/person 1990 - 2000 0.7% (Asia: 6%) Small Economic Scale $600Bil (Equal to Spain) Education System Productivity Brain Drain 25% of 300,000 college grads flow outside the region Uneven Distribution of Wealth Declining Middle Class R&D 0.2% of GDP, Government-lead, Only 2% to IT field High Unemployment 2003: 13.3% Youth: 27% (World Avg.:6.2%) Materialistic/ Power-oriented Isolation from Global Trends Regional Instability Gender Inequality Small Foreign Direct Investment Youth Population Under 20: 45.9% Under 35: 70.8% Source Yasushi Kaito, NEC
  20. 20. The Next Dominant Economies & The Next Recruiting Frontiers <ul><li>India </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1.094 billion </li></ul></ul><ul><li>China </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1.314 billion </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Japan </li></ul><ul><ul><li>127.4 million </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Vietnam </li></ul><ul><ul><li>84.4 million </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Thailand </li></ul><ul><ul><li>64.6 million </li></ul></ul><ul><li>South Korea </li></ul><ul><ul><li>48.8 million </li></ul></ul>One-Third of the World’s People!
  21. 21. Two Giants and Many Children
  22. 22. The Bund, Shanghai c. 1907 The Bund, Shanghai c. 2005
  23. 23. Bangalore, India
  24. 24. Issues in Both India and China <ul><li>Too many uneducated people with declining employment prospects. </li></ul><ul><li>Too few educated people. </li></ul><ul><li>Too few willing to relocate (family). </li></ul><ul><li>Not enough job creation. </li></ul><ul><li>Too high savings rate. </li></ul>
  25. 25. Too Many People, Too Few Jobs <ul><li>In China there are 150 million rural surplus laborers, over 13 million unemployed and laid-off persons and 11 million seeking work including new college grads. </li></ul><ul><li>For hourly & blue collar workers wages work is scarce and not highly paid. </li></ul>
  26. 26. China Daily November 17, 2006
  27. 27. Skilled Talent Shortages <ul><li>Talent scarcity has created competitive environment for top talent. </li></ul><ul><li>Salaries of key workers at par with or above rest of world. </li></ul><ul><li>Inflationary compensation markets are cooling. </li></ul>7 1 10 Can’t Meet Demand No Demand
  28. 28. India <ul><li>With annual employee turnover rates approaching 40 per cent, wage inflation is rising. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Business Standard reports that a shortage of skilled labour has resulted in salary increases of 22 per cent during the first half of fiscal year 2007. </li></ul></ul>1 10 Can’t Meet Demand No Demand 7
  29. 29. <ul><li>While 3 million students graduate from Indian universities every year, only about 25 percent of engineering graduates and 10-15 percent of general college graduates are considered suitable for employment in the offshore IT industry, according to a recent study by NASSCOM. </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Jo Johnson, South Asia Bureau Chief, Financial Times, November 15, 2006 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  30. 30. Investment in Education <ul><li>The ONLY way to break out of the talent shortage is to train and educate those without skills. </li></ul>IBM, intent on boosting its long stagnant top line, is increasing its overall focus on China -- one of the world's fastest growing technology markets. Last week, the company said it would launch a $180 million fund in partnership with Lehman Brothers to invest in midsize and mature Chinese companies. Earlier this year, IBM moved its head purchasing office from upstate New York to Shenzhen. Announced - November 14, 2006
  32. 33. China Australia
  33. 34. Major Challenge <ul><li>“ It's no great news for us to say that job seekers have choices. The problem in China is that they have so many choices that power rests almost entirely in their hands. “ </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Frank Mulligan, from “ Job Hype Ineffective In China” 11/20/2006 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  34. 35. Recruiters’ Three Challenges <ul><li>Skill sets needed to be successful are wider </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Culture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Language </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Talent pool is shrinking </li></ul><ul><li>Sellers’ market </li></ul>
  35. 36. Appeal to Gen Y Values <ul><li>Individualism: Roughly two-thirds of young Chinese prefer to do things themselves, rather than rely on others. </li></ul><ul><li>Craving a better life: Only 39% of Chinese are happy with their life as is. </li></ul><ul><li>Career ambition: Eighty percent of younger Chinese say they are working very hard for their career. Two-thirds agree with the statement, &quot;It is important that my family thinks I am successful.“ </li></ul><ul><li>Liberated women: Men should do house work, according to 64% of men and women surveyed. The divorce rate now is about 22% in China overall but higher and rising in urban areas. </li></ul>Source: Grey Global & British Council, 2005
  36. 37. Social Networks
  37. 39. Social Networks and India <ul><li>Google’s Orkut is #1 </li></ul><ul><li>LinkedIn </li></ul><ul><li>Facebook </li></ul>
  38. 40. Some Final Thoughts <ul><li>Another incredible decade </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Asian countries will dominate the world economy by 2040. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Middle East and Central Europe are growth and opportunity areas. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Western Europe is a smaller and less dynamic market. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Australia will be open to even more immigration. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cities will dominate – rural areas lose. </li></ul></ul>
  39. 41. Foreign Policy Magazine’s Global Cities Index Source: Foreign policy, November 2008
  40. 42. <ul><li>There may be a few months to a year of slow demand. </li></ul><ul><li>Good recruiters will survive and thrive. </li></ul><ul><li>Use of technology and a global view are keys to both success and perspective. </li></ul>
  41. 43. Thanks and Good Hunting! Write to me at : [email_address] Follow me on Twitter at: Read my blog at: