Kishwan Cse Redd Presentation(Aug08)


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South Asia Media Briefing Workshop on Climate Change

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Kishwan Cse Redd Presentation(Aug08)

  1. 1. South Asia Media Briefing Workshop on Climate Change 28 th August 2009 India Habitat Centre, New Delhi Jagdish Kishwan Member Core Negotiating Group for UNFCCC Government of India Centre for Science and Environment
  2. 2. Role of Forests in Climate Change <ul><ul><li>Forests are both sources and sinks of carbon </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Forests contribute about 17.4% of global CO 2 emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Forests provide large and relatively low cost mitigation opportunities to address climate change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Forests provide other ecosystem goods and services to communities to cope up with climate change </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. IPCC 4 th Assessment Report <ul><li>Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO 2 equivalent </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy Supply 25.9% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industry 19.4% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Forestry 17.4% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Agriculture 13.5% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Residential and 7.9% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commercial building </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Waste and Wastewater 2.8% </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. The Agenda <ul><li>Agenda Item on “Reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries: Approaches to stimulate action” first presented in COP 11 Montreal (2005) in response to request of Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica </li></ul><ul><li>COP11 invited parties and accredited observers to submit views on related issues and also to organize a workshop </li></ul>
  5. 5. Active Agenda Item with AWG-LCA (BAP) and SBSTA (REDD) Avoided Deforestation Compensated Reduction Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries (RED) Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD) REDD+Conservation+SMF+Enhancement of Forest Carbon Stocks = REDD-plus or REDD + Compensated Conservation?
  6. 6. COP 13: December 2007 Bali Action Plan: “… Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries ; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries … ” [Para 1b (iii) of BAP] REDD: “...inter alia, assessments of changes in forest cover and associated carbon stocks and greenhouse gas emissions, incremental changes due to sustainable management of the forest …”
  7. 7. “ Compensated Reduction” Financial incentives to Non Annex 1 countries for reducing present annual deforestation rate and stabilizing it in future
  8. 8. Indian Viewpoint on REDD <ul><li>Comprehensive REDD = REDD + </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon Saved and Carbon Added </li></ul><ul><li>Reducing Deforestation & Degradation </li></ul><ul><li>Conservation, Sustainable Management of Forests, </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in Forest Cover (A&R) </li></ul><ul><li>Indian submission incorporates above and seeks incentives on </li></ul><ul><li>Incremental and Baseline stocks </li></ul>
  9. 9. Emerging Policy Options <ul><li>Conservation, sustainable management of forests, increase in forest cover/A&R (Add C) </li></ul><ul><li>Reducing deforestation and degradation rates (Save C) </li></ul>
  10. 10. Country Groupings <ul><li>CN, SMF, IFC (China, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, PNG , Costa Rica, Sri Lanka Suriname , Congo Basin Countries, Malaysia, Thailand) </li></ul><ul><li>CN, SMF (Congo Basin Countries, Suriname , Cameroon, Nepal) </li></ul><ul><li>Reducing deforestation (Brazil, Indonesia, Bolivia, PNG, Columbia ) </li></ul><ul><li>Annex I countries supporting incremental stocks and reducing decremental stocks </li></ul>
  11. 11. Policy Options and Accounting Approach <ul><li>National Accounting </li></ul><ul><li>Whole area under CN, SMF, A&R or </li></ul><ul><li>Whole area under RD or </li></ul><ul><li>Whole area divided into mutually exclusive zones- i) CN, SMF, A&R, ii) RD </li></ul><ul><li>Sub-national Accounting </li></ul><ul><li>Reported area under 1, 2 or 3??? </li></ul><ul><li>What about changes in C stocks in remaining area? (Leakage?) </li></ul>
  12. 12. Poznan Highlights <ul><li>SBSTA decision on REDD (SBSTA/2008/L.23) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Replacement of semicolon (;) with comma (,) (para 4) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reference made to para 11 of 2/CP.13: Bali COP decision on REDD (paras 5, 8, 12, 13) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Single expert meeting (23-24 March 2009, Bonn) to consider methodological issues relating to different policy approaches (CN, SMF, IFC, RD) together (para 6)- positive movement towards comprehensive approach </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Forceful and forthright statements of some Non-Annex countries for CN: Suriname, Nepal, Bolivia </li></ul>
  13. 13. A draft decision has been agreed at SBSTA 30 (June 2009)
  14. 14. Draft Text for Decision COP 15 Draft COP decision for adoption at COP 15 in Copenhagen is bracketed
  15. 15. India intervened to have reference to India’s position on forest conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in the draft COP decision. A new line to this effect was successfully got added in para 1 (a) of the draft decision reading ‘ to identify the drivers and activities within the country that result in reduced emissions, increase in removals and stabilization of carbon stocks in forestry sector ’ as part of our strategy to clearly define activities that would be clubbed under REDD-plus.
  16. 16. Conference of Parties (COP) 15 December 2009 in Copenhagen likely to come out with a COP decision on REDD methodological issues
  17. 17. AWG-LCA Agenda Item 3: Enabling the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention through long-term cooperative action now, up to and beyond 2012, by addressing, inter alia : (b) Enhanced national/international action on mitigation of climate change; (para 1(b)(iii) policy approaches and positive incentives relating to REDD; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries)
  18. 18. AWG-LCA Agenda Item 3: <ul><li>First and second reading of negotiating text completed in Bonn (June 2009) </li></ul><ul><li>Informal consultations in Bonn (August 2009) </li></ul><ul><li>REDD policy option for mitigation will be finalized by COP 15 in Copenhagen </li></ul><ul><li>Indian Position on REDD Policy prominently reflected in the LCA negotiating text </li></ul>
  19. 19. Best Option for Low Deforestation Countries
  20. 20. Distribution of Global forest cover by region (%)
  21. 21. 10 Countries with largest forest cover (Million ha)
  22. 22. 11 High Forest Cover Countries e
  23. 23. Based on Policy Approaches and Practices HFLD, LFLD CN, SMF IFC +CN, SMF HFHD, LFHD GLOBAL FOREST C STOCKS CONSTANT STOCKS CHANGING STOCKS INCREMENTAL DECREMENTAL HFLD: High Forest cover Low deforestation LFLD: Low Forest Cover Low deforestation IFC: Increase in forest cover CN: Forest Conservation SMF: Sustainable Management of Forests HFHD: High Forest cover High Deforestation LFHD: Low Forest cover High Deforestation
  24. 24. State of Forest Carbon Stocks A f n of CONSTANT STOCKS cs DECREMENTAL STOCKS DS INCREMENTAL STOCKS IS CO 2 c Constant Stocks HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF Decremental Stocks HFHD, LFHD Base Line Action of HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF for CS Action of IFC, CN, SMF for IS Action of HFHD, LFHD for DS All actions are equally important in maintaining Global integrity of stocks  Comprehensive approach All three (CS, IS, DS) contribute in state of forest carbon stocks C C
  25. 25. <ul><ul><ul><li>Advocate for a comprehensive approach </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Ensure that progress on methodological and policy fronts for all policy approaches proceeds simultaneously, derailing of any element that contributes in maintaining global integrity of forest c stocks (CN also) to be opposed </li></ul></ul></ul>Strategy
  26. 26. <ul><ul><ul><li>Clarity on REDD/REDD-plus- main or a co-benefit? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>State managed forests- main benefit </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Community/jointly managed forests- co-benefit (bonus with other goods and services) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Biodiversity conservation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Safeguarding rights of local people and benefit sharing (UNFCCC- indigenous peoples and local communities) </li></ul></ul></ul>Points of Concern
  27. 27. Projected trend in forest cover under the current trend scenario (Source: Indian Institute of Science, 2006)
  28. 28. Projected Afforestation under current trend scenario (Source: Indian Institute of Science, 2006)
  29. 29. Model based projection of carbon stocks in India’s forests and tree cover, as per studies of Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore (2006), estimates increase in carbon stocks as contained in the country’s forests from 8.79 GtC in 2005 to 9.75 GtC in 2030 Carbon Stock Projection: Indian Scenario
  30. 30. <ul><li>Compensation Claim: India </li></ul><ul><li>Proposed policy approach of Compensated Conservation seeks incentive for </li></ul><ul><li>Incremental stocks of 0.96 GtC between 2006-2030 (projected increase from 8.79 GtC in 2006 to 9.75 GtC in 2030) </li></ul><ul><li>Baseline stocks of 8.79 GtC as on 2006 </li></ul>
  31. 31. Compensated Reduction Compensated Conservation Project Project BAU BAU Baseline Time Carbon Stored/Saved Issues at COP-12 on “Avoided Deforestation” Baseline
  32. 32. Forest and Tree Cover Carbon Stocks, India ICFRE Study (August 2009) Figures in m tonnes Carbon 1995 2005 Incremental Changes In Biomass 2692.474 2865.739 173.265 In Soil 3552.304 3755.811 203.507 Total 6244.778 6621.550 376.772
  33. 33. Forest and Tree Cover Carbon Stocks, India ICFRE Study (August 2009) <ul><li>Expansion and Conversion Factors </li></ul><ul><li>Mean biomass expansion factor </li></ul><ul><li>Ratio of BGB/AGB </li></ul><ul><li>Mean Density </li></ul><ul><li>Ratio of OFFB/Tree Biomass </li></ul><ul><li>MCDB in DW </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon content in DW </li></ul>
  34. 34. Forest and Tree Cover Carbon Stocks, India ICFRE Study (August 2009) Expansion and Conversion Factors Mean biomass expansion factor 1.575 Ratio of BGB/AGB 0.266 Mean Density 0.7116 Ratio of OFFB/Tree Biomass 0.015 MCDB in DW 20% Carbon content in DW 40%
  35. 35. Forest and Tree Cover Carbon Stocks, India ICFRE Study (August 2009) Mean biomass expansion factor 1.575 Chhabra, et al ., 2002; Kaul, et al ., 2009 Ratio of BGB/AGB 0.266 Chhabra, et al ., 2002; Kaul, et al ., 2009 Mean Density 0.7116 Brown, Gillespie and Lugo,1991; Rajput, et al ., 1996; Kaul, et al ., 2009 Ratio of OFFB/Tree Biomass 0.015 Ogawa, et al .,1965; Rai, 1981; Brown and Lugo, 1984 MCDB in DW 20% Leach and Gowen, 1987; Hall, et al ., 1994; Ludwig, et al ., 2003 Carbon content in DW 40% Bowen, 1979; Levine, 1996 ; Susott, et al ., 1996; Ludwig , et al ., 2003
  36. 36. Forest and Tree Cover Carbon Stocks, India ICFRE Study (August 2009) Item Factor 1995 2005 GS of Country in Mm 3 -GS 5842.320 6218.282 Mean Biomass Expansion Factor- EF 1.575 Ratio (BGB/AGB)- RBA 0.266 AGB (Volume) – AGB = GSXEF 9201.654 9793.794 BGB (Volume) – BGB = AGBXRBA 2447.640 2605.149 Total Biomass (Volume) – TB = AGB+RBA 11649.294 12398.943 Mean Density – MD 0.7116 Biomass in mt = GSXMD 8289.638 8823.088 Ratio (Other Forest FB/TB 0.015 Total Forest Biomass in mt (Trees+Shrubs+Herbs) 8413.982 8955.434 Dry Weight in mt (80% of TFB) – DW 6731.186 7164.348 Carbon in mt (40% of DW) 2692.474 2865.739
  37. 37. <ul><ul><ul><li>Initiate regular estimation and monitoring of forest carbon stocks </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Biomass carbon </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Soil organic carbon </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Supplement by regular estimation of ‘tree cover’ biomass carbon stocks </li></ul></ul></ul>Possible Action by MoEF/SFDs
  38. 38. <ul><ul><ul><li>Document changes in </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Climatic parameters: temperature, rainfall </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Vegetation </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Growth parameters of vegetation </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Hydrology </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Pest incidence </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Uncommon natural phenomenon </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>Possible Action by MoEF/SFDs
  39. 39. <ul><ul><ul><li>Institutionalize </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>forest carbon accounting (FSI/SFDs) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>observed changes/shifts (ICFRE and SFDs/SFRIs) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Benefit sharing with local community (MoEF/SFDs) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Capacity building </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>To incorporate data in working plan in a special chapter on Climate Change </li></ul></ul></ul>Possible Action by MoEF/SFDs
  40. 40. Is Positive REDD+ Outcome Possible?
  41. 41. Thank you for your attention