Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 25 july 2013

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Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 25 july 2013

  1. 1. DAILY I FOREX REPORT 25TH JULY 2013 WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300
  2. 2. WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300  Aussie And Yen Both Decline On A Mix Of Chinese And European PMIs  Euro Rallies as PMI Knocks Out Expectations THE TAKEAWAY: The composite output index was reported above 50.4, above expectations -> Markit says Euro-zone may pull out of recession in Q3 -> Euro rallies The composite output index, which was reported at 50.4, showed rising output for the first time in 18 months, beating expectations for the composite number to only rise to 49.1 from 48.7 in June. The manufacturing PMI also beat expectations at 50.1, the first index reflecting expanding manufacturing activity in two years. The PMI for services beat expectations at 50.4. The initial estimate of French PMI’s also beat expectations, at 49.8 and 48.3 for manufacturing and services activity respectively. The German PMI for services rose to 52.5, beating expectations for only a small rise from 50.4 in June to 50.7. The German manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.3, beating expectations for 49.2. The above-neutral PMI’s bode well for Euro traders looking to see an end of the six straight quarter recession in the Euro-zone. ECB President Draghi said he expects the region will see an expanding economy before the end of 2013. However, Markit suggested the end of the recession may happen even sooner. “The best PMI reading for one-and-a- half years provides encouraging evidence to suggest that the euro area could – at long last – pull out of its recession in the third quarter,” said Markit Chief Economist Chris Williamson. TRADING TIPS  BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3250 TGT 1.3270/1.3290 SL 1.3220  SELL USDJPY BELOW 99.80 TGT 99.60/99.40 SL 100.10  BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5400 TGT 1.5420/1.5440 SL 1.5370 HEADLINES
  3. 3.  HOURLY EURUSD CHARTHOURLY EURUSD CHART ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0030 (BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 59 (BULLISH SIGNAL) www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300
  4. 4. HOURLY USDJPY CHART www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300 ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>60(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  5. 5. HOURLY GBPUSD CHART www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300 ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>41(BULLISH SIGNAL)
  6. 6. www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300 HOURLY EURGBP CHART ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>75(BULLISH SIGNAL)
  7. 7. HOURLY USD INDEX CHART ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARIISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0138(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>33(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  8. 8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes Mon Jul 22 JPY BOJ Policy Board Member Sato Speaks in Fukushima Low 05:00 JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (JUN) Low 2.7% -1.2% 07:00 CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUN) Low 11.6% 9.7% 07:00 JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JUN) Low 0.1% -1.2% 12:30 USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (JUN) Medium 0.00 -0.30 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (JUN) Low 5.25M 5.18M 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) Medium 1.4% 4.2% 21:00 USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update Low Tue Jul 23 CHF Real Estate Index Family Homes (2Q) Low 425.2 JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for July High 08:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (JUN) Medium 38300 36102 12:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) Medium 0.4% 0.1% 12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (MAY) Low 0.4% -0.3% 13:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (MAY) Medium 0.8% 0.7% 14:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (JUL) Low 10 8 14:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUL A) Medium -18.3 -18.8 22:45 NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JUN) Medium 105M 71M 22:45 NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JUN) Low 4.01B 4.08B 22:45 NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JUN) Low 3.90B 4.01B 22:45 NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (JUN) Medium -1050M -869M ECONOMIC CALLENDER
  9. 9. 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (JUN) Medium -¥150.0B -¥996.4B 23:50 JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (JUN) Low -¥573.5B -¥821.0B 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (JUN) Low 10.0 10.1 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (JUN) Low 13.6 10.1 Wed Jul 24 01:00 AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (JUN) Low -0.5% 01:30 LIVE AUD Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (2Q) Medium 0.5% 0.4% 01:30 LIVE AUD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (2Q) High 2.5% 2.5% 01:30 AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ) (2Q) Low 0.5% 0.3% 01:30 AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) (2Q) Low 2.1% 2.2% 01:30 AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Weighted Median (QoQ) (2Q) Low 0.5% 0.5% 01:30 AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Weighted Median (YoY) (2Q) Low 2.4% 2.6% 01:45 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (JUL) Medium 48.5 48.2 07:00 EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL P) Low 48.8 48.4 07:00 EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL P) Low 47.5 47.2 07:30 EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL A) Medium 49.2 48.6 07:30 EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL A) Medium 50.7 50.4 08:00 LIVE EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL A) Medium 49.1 48.8 08:00 LIVE EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL A) Medium 48.7 48.3 08:00 LIVE EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (JUL A) Medium 49.1 48.7 10:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (JUL) Low -12 -18 10:00 GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (JUL) Low 4 3 10:00 GBP CBI Business Optimism (JUL) Low 8 5 11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 19) Low -2.60%
  10. 10. 12:58 USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (JUL) Medium 52.5 14:00 USD New Home Sales (JUN) Low 485K 476K 14:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) Medium 1.8% 2.1% 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 19) Low -6902K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 19) Low -882K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 19) Low 3055K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 19) Low 3870K 21:00 LIVE NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (JUL 25) High 2.50% 2.50% 23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 19) Medium ¥1105.7B 23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 19) Medium -¥88.2B 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 19) Low ¥0.8B 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 19) Low ¥398.2B 23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (JUN) Low 0.6% 0.3% Thu Jul 25 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JUN) Low -0.3% -0.4% EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (JUN) Low -1.6% -2.9% 08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate (JUL) Medium 106.1 105.9 08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment (JUL) Medium 109.7 109.4 08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations (JUL) Medium 102.5 102.5 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JUN) Low 3.0% 2.9% 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (JUN) Low 3.0% 2.9% 08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q A) High 0.6% 0.3% 08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q A) High 1.4% 0.3% 08:30 GBP Index of Services (MoM) (MAY) Low 0.2% 0.2% 08:30 GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (MAY) Low 0.7% 0.8%
  11. 11. 12:30 CAD Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (MAY) Low 2.2% 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 19) Medium 340K 334K 12:30 USD Continuing Claims (JUL 13) Low 2980K 3114K 12:30 LIVE USD Durable Goods Orders (JUN) High 1.1% 3.6% 12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation (JUN) Medium 0.5% 0.7% 12:30 USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (JUN) Low 0.7% 1.1% 12:30 USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (JUN) Low 1.1% 1.7% 14:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 19) Low 58 15:00 USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (JUL) Low 0 -5 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) High 0.1% -0.3% 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN) Medium 0.3% 0.0% 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN) Medium -0.3% -0.4% 23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low 0.2% 0.0% 23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL) Low 0.3% 0.2% 23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL) Low -0.4% -0.4% Fri Jul 26 01:45 CNY MNI July Business Sentiment Indicator Low 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL F) Medium 84.0 83.9 Sat Jul 27 01:30 CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (JUN) Low 12.3%
  12. 12. www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300 Disclaimer The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.

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