Course simron singh hanpp_july2010

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Course simron singh hanpp_july2010

  1. 1. Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (HANPP) and social conflicts Veronika Gaube, Simron J. Singh, Institute of Social Ecology, Klagenfurt University In collaboration with: H. Haberl, K.-H. Erb, F. Krausmann, S. Gingrich, C. Plutzar ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Overview • HANPP: what, why and how? – The integrated land system – Measuring impacts of land use • Data and methods • Global HANPP 2000 – some results • Conclusions: Q&A ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 1
  2. 2. Land – a socioecological system Purposive alteration – „colonization“ Socioeconomic Terrestrial system ecosystem Flow of resources (biomass) and services ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 HANPP: measuring impacts of land use HANPP measures changes in yearly Resources gained biomass flows in ecosystems resulting from land use Change Colonized system induced through Society colonization Natural ecosystem Work / energy invested ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 2
  3. 3. An integrated socio-ecological perspective on global biomass flows: The HANPP approach NPP0 NPPact NPPt NPP remaining after Potential vegetation Actual vegetation harvest Productivity of Productivity of actual Energy remaining in potential vegetation vegetation the ecosystem after (hypothetical vegetation (including croplands, harvest assumed to prevail in the grasslands, built-up area, etc. absence of land use; e.g., forests, grasslands, savannahs, deserts, shrubs, etc. Productivity change Harvest (NPPh) (∆NPPLC) • Indicator of land-use intensity Human approriation of NPP • ‚Pressure‘ indicator, useful to analyze (HANPP) drivers of land use ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (Definition) NPP gC/m²/yr ∆NPPLC HANPP Harvest Potential Vegetation NPPh Actual Vegetation NPPt ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 3
  4. 4. Units HANPP is expressed as: Material flows (biomass flows): basic unit = kg dry matter per year [kgDM/yr] Substance (carbon) flows: basic unit = kg carbon per year [kgC/yr] Energy flows: basic unit = Joule per year [J/yr] ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Annabella Musel| CEECEC Vienna Workshop | 23 Feb 09 | 7 The MEFA framework: Accounting for (impacts of) resource use Dimensions of resource use Impacts Materials Depletion of stocks Emissions, wastes Energy Risk (nuclear) Climate change Land Biodiversity Landscape change ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 4
  5. 5. Impacts of HANPP • Changes patterns and processes in ecosystems, including biodiversity Potential vegetation • Alters stocks and flows of carbon in ecosystems • Affects biogeochemical cycles (water, nitrogen, etc.) Actual vegetation • Reduces the amount of trophic (=food) energy available for all other species than humans and their livestock • May affect resilience and ecosystem NPP remaining after harvest services such as self-regulating capacity, buffering capacity, etc. ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production • A measure for the reduction of trophic (=food) energy available for all other species than humans and their livestock • Indicator for land use intensity • HANPP can be directly related to socio-economic activities, thus allowing preventive measures to lower human pressures on ecosystems • Empirical basis: Systematic and consistent data integration: land use data, land cover data, data on socioeconomic metabolism ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 5
  6. 6. HANPP methods: Calculation approach for assessing global HANPP • NPP0 (potential vegetation): LPJ-DGVM results (vegetation model) • NPPh (harvest): – Statistics on the national and subnational level – Based on the international standard methodology for material and energy flow accounting (MEFA). – Flows not covered or underestimated by international statistics (e.g. biomass grazed by livestock) assessed on basis of demand-driven modelling approaches and regional estimates. • NPPact (actual, after land use change): – Mixed approaches, combining statistics and modelling approaches – Conservative approach: in the absence of data, NPPact = NPP0 ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Data integration: the land use model NPP0: LPJ-DGVM NPPact Erb et al., 2007 J Non-used areas Land Use Sci., 2: Irrigation 191-224 Degradation ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 6
  7. 7. Summary of HANPP methods HANPP component Data, methods Required expertise MFA Methods, based Usual statistical on data from methods NPPh agricultural and forestry statistics Agricultural and Statistical methods forestry statistics combined with GIS NPPact GIS (e.g., CORINE expertise land cover) Ecosystem modeling Ecosystem modeling based on climate and NPP0 soil data; reconstructions of GIS expertise potential vegetation ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 (a) Land-use induced changes in productivity (∆NPPLC) ∆ Mapping global HANPP 2000 (b) Aggregate HANPP (∆NPPLC plus harvest) ∆ Haberl et al., 2007. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., USA 104, 12942-12947. ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 7
  8. 8. Global HANPP 2000 – processes 9,6% ∆NPPLC 70 22,4% HANPP ∆NPPLC% 60 50 Human- induced Breakdown of fires [PgC/yr] 40 HANPP Backflows 8% 30 to nature 10% 20 10 ∆NPPLC dNPPlc 43% 0 HANPP% NPP0 NPPact Useful harvest 39% ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Global HANPP: towards an understanding of proximate and ultimate causes Activities causing global HANPP Human- induced fires 8% Infra- structure 9% Forestry 10% Cropping 51% Grazing 22% ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 8
  9. 9. Analysis of global HANPP patterns 2000 HANPP per person 5 4 [t C/cap/yr] HANPP per unit of GDP 3 2 1 0,8 1 [kg C/US$] 0,6 0 0,4 Industrial core Transition Developing Global countries 0,2 countries average 0 Industrial core Transition Developing Global countries countries average ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Global HANPP 2000: A summary • Global HANPP amounts to 24% (aboveground 29%) • Agriculture is the most important driver: – Cropping and grazing contribute three quarters to global HANPP. – Feeding of livestock consumes almost two thirds of the total amount of biomass used by humanity • Considerable regional variation of HANPP, mainly depending on – Consumption level (per capita HANPP in industrialized countries is about twice that of developing countries) – Population density – Agricultural yields ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 9
  10. 10. Geographical patterns of global HANPP [1]: HANPP per unit area and year Krausmann et al., 2009 J. Land Use Sci., 4: 15-34. ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Population density ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 10
  11. 11. Geographical patterns of global HANPP [2]: HANPP per capita and year Krausmann et al., 2009 J. Land Use Sci., 4: 15-34. ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Future challenges • Future biomass demand will surge: – population growth (8-9 bill. 2050), – surges in animal fractions in diet (strongly correlated with income), – bioenergy strategies • Supply side: Options/potentials for sustainable biomass utilization are limited – Land use expansion to areas with currently small HANPP (where? Amazon, boreal regions? What about biodiversity endangerment?) – Intensification of production (yield increases e.g. in agriculture) – Gains in land-use efficiency: fostering the use of „backflows to nature“, reducing fires, or productivity losses – all strategies may come at high socio-ecological costs: requires integrated perspectives ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 11
  12. 12. Conclusions • HANPP work is policy relevant – For example, HANPP suggests to proceed with caution with respect to the promotion of biomass for energy provision (cascade utilization instead of maximization of harvest) • HANPP is directly linked to MFA-related methods • HANPP calculations are devoid of any arbitrary weighting methods/factors • HANPP is a mature, robust, spatially explicit indicator of impacts of resource use, in particular on ecosystems and biodiversity – It can be calculated with reasonable effort and reasonable accuracy – Comparable across space and time, in particular across countries and over decadal to centennial time series ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 HANPP as a socio-political tool within EE 1. Measure of pressure humans exert on environment Measure of changes in yearly biomass flows in ecosystems resulting from land use + harvest 2. HANPP as an indicator for ecosystem services Loss of Biodiversity Carbon storage ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 CEECEC Vienna Workshop| 27 Feb| 24 12
  13. 13. HANPP as a socio-political tool within EE 3. Can be used to show resource distribution and unequal exchange (Embodied HANPP) Who appropriates HANPP flows most and at what cost? Who controls them? In which form? Who controls the land in terms of biomass production (quantity)? 4. Measure of land-use intensity How is land controlled in terms of quality? Input of fertilizer, irrigation … > degradation Who controls and regulates the quality of land ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 CEECEC Vienna Workshop| 27 Feb| 25 HANPP related indicators Money per unit of HANPP Who earns this i.e. benefits from HANPP? > Export of biomass and biomass goods Who pays for HANPP? Valuation E.g. degradation > loss of subsistence Embodied HANPP in products related to lifestyle e.g. HANPP/product Amount of consumption, what is consumed > Unequal share of HANPP HANPP/area Pressure on ecosystem ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 CEECEC Vienna Workshop| 27 Feb| 26 13
  14. 14. India ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Brazil ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 14
  15. 15. United Kingdom ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Saudi Arabia ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 15
  16. 16. Thank you for your attentation! For further questions please contact also: veronika.gaube@uni-klu.ac.at ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 HANPP and Biodiversity ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 16
  17. 17. HANPP and biodiversity: The species- energy hypothesis • Hypothesis: The number of species is positively related to the flow of energy in an ecosystem. ⇒ If humans reduce energy flow HANPP (e.g., through HANPP), then species richness will decline. • Notes – Can explain species diversity gradient from equator to poles. Brown, J.H. (1981) Am. Zool. 21, 877-888. – Not undisputed. Competing Gaston, K.L. (2000) Nature 405, 220-227. (complementary) hypotheses Hutchinson, G.E. (1959) Am. Nat. 93, 145-159. exist (e.g., intermediate Rapson, G.L. et al. (1997) J. Ecol. 85, 99-100. disturbance hypothesis). Waide, R.B. et al. (1999) Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 30, 257-300. Wright, D.H. (1983) Oikos 41, 495-506. Wright, D.H. (1990) Ambio 19, 189-194. ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Empirical studies support the HANPP / biodiversity hypothesis -2 4x10 100 i) breeding bird species richness all heterotrophs 10 2 Y = -1.975 +0.485 X Y =1.32916+0.69916 X-0.22962 X 2 R² =0 .549, p < 0.0001 Adj. R = 0.69 1 -2 10 0.1 1 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 20 NPPt [MJ/m²*a] NPPt Case study 1: Correlation between NPPt Case study 2: Correlation between NPPt and and autotroph species richness (5 taxa) on breeding bird richness in Austria, 328 38 plots sized 600x600 m, East Austria randomly chosen 1x1 km squares. Haberl et al., 2004, Agric., Ecosyst. & Envir. 102, p213ff Haberl et al., 2005. Agric., Ecosyst. & Envir. 110, p119ff ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 17
  18. 18. LPJ Vegetation model for calculation of potential Vegetation ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 The LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJ (Sitch et al., GCB, 2003) Climate, Soil, CO2 process modules into 10 plant functional types Transformed by competition, mortality, establishment Time Loops fire, permafrost Space & photosynthesis: coupled C and H2O cycles C allocation (funct. and struct. relations) Carbon pools: 4 in vegetation, 4 in litter/soil area crown leaves Full hydrology AET AET LAI height Ci Ci sapwood stem heartwood C budget, H20 Budget, diameter Vegetation Composition ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 0-50 cm 50-150 cm fine roots 18
  19. 19. HANPP 1700-2000 ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Understanding global HANPP dynamics: Towards a consistent time series 1700-2000 • Global reconstruction of land use/cover change: BIOME 300, etc. • Biomass harvest / biomass use data are available 1910- 2000 • Yield data are available 1910-2000 • So far no reconstruction of NPP0 and NPPact – NPP0: DGVM-simulation – NPPact: needs to integrate land use, yield, degradation and crop morphology (harvest index) data ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 19
  20. 20. Global land-use change 1700-2000 Biome 300 data 140 120 Deserts and ice Shrublands 100 Natural grasslands & tundra Marginal cropland/grazing 80 [Mio. km²] Intensive cropland Boreal forests 60 Temperate forests Tropical forests 40 20 - 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1970 1990 Klein Goldewijk, 2001. Glob. Biogeochem. Cyc. 15:417-433 ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Global wilderness areas 1700-2000 ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 K.-H. Erb, unpublished draft results 20
  21. 21. Yield increases of cereals*, 1920-2000 6,00 5,00 4,00 [t/ha] 3,00 * Weighted average of cereals 2,00 (excluding maize, rice) 1,00 0,00 Source: 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 FAOstat Germany Austria Czech Republic United States of America World ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Global biomass harvest 1910-2000 7,0 • Data sources: W ood FAO, Institute 6,0 Grazing Residues Internationale de 5,0 Crops Agriculture 4,0 • Total biomass [Pg C/yr] 3,0 harvest grows by a factor of 2.8 2,0 • Crops grow 1,0 fastest (factor 0,0 4.5), grazing 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 most slowly (1.9) ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 21
  22. 22. Analysis of global biomass use 1910-2000 per capita Industrial Core Transition countriesper unit of GDP Developing Countries Industrial Core 80 Transition countries Per capita biomass use [GJ/cap/yr] total 60 Developing Countries 70 Biomass use per unit of GDP total 50 60 [MJ/1990 US$] 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Summary: Global HANPP 1700-2000 • Total biomass harvest increased more or less parallel to population growth (1910-2000) • Rising yields imply that HANPP per unit of biomass harvested decreases ⇒ HANPP has probably risen at a much lower rate than biomass harvest • Climate change has probably increased NPP0 in the last centuries (CO2 fertilization) • Actual NPP is also driven by – Land degradation – Agricultural intensification ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 22
  23. 23. Some features and principles of HANPP methods • Measurement of flows (and potentially stocks) in physical units – Tons of dry matter biomass per year [t DM/yr] – Tons of carbon per year [t C/yr] – Joules per year [J/yr] • Spatially explicit – Existing database: c 10 x 10 km at the equator (5 min) – Feasible for Europe: 1 x 1 km or even lower (€!) • Fits perfectly with MFA-derived indicators ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 Regional breakdown of global HANPP 18 15% 17% 16 21% 14 36% 12 16% [Pg C/yr] dNPPlc 10 NPPh 8 ANPPt 6 4 2 0 Transition DC Africa Industrial DC America DC Asia countries core ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 23
  24. 24. Population density strongly influences HANPP per hectare, but… (1) Yemen (2) Qatar (3) Kuwait Krausmann et al., 2009 J. Land Use Sci., 4: 15-34. ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 … HANPP per capita is smaller in densely populated countries (1) Yemen (2) Qatar (3) Kuwait Krausmann et al., 2009 J. Land Use Sci., 4: 15-34. ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 24
  25. 25. Natural productivity potential constrains HANPP per unit area and year • HANPP is constrained by productive potential in poor environments • In favourable environments socioeconomic factors determine the level of HANPP ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010 25

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