Typhoon Rammasun (Cat 3) Headed Towards Manila

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Typhoon Rammasun (Cat 3) Headed Towards Manila. This tropical storm is predicted to be the first direct hit on the capital in four years. Rammasun is the strongest storm to threaten the country since Haiyan, a Cat-5 "super typhoon," that wiped out nearly everything in its path when it crossed over the central Philippines in November, 2013, just eight months ago. The major lesson from last Haiyan: ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS ARE THE KEY TO PREPAREDNESS. People who endured haiyan should know 1) what to expect (e.G., high-velocity winds, rain, flash floods, landslides, and storm surge), 2) where and when it will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare will survive. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction

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Typhoon Rammasun (Cat 3) Headed Towards Manila

  1. 1. 2014 TYPHOON SEASON TYPHOON RAMMASUN Tuesday, July 15, 2014
  2. 2. Rammasun is the strongest storm to threaten the country since Haiyan, a Cat-5 "super typhoon," wiped out nearly everything in its path when it crossed over the central Philippines in November, 2013.
  3. 3. RAMMASUN (CAT 3) WAS HEADED FOR MANILLA—THE FIRST DIRECT HIT ON THE CAPITOL IN FOUR YEARS— ON JULY 14, 2014
  4. 4. TYPHOON RAMMASUN HEADED TOWARDS MANILLA
  5. 5. PHYSICAL DETAILS • Typhoon Rammasun, with gusts of up to 160 kph (99 mph) and sustained winds of 130 kph (81 mph) near its centre, hit land over Rapu-Rapu island in the eastern province of Albay,
  6. 6. TIMELY ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS • At least 300,000 people have already fled from their homes in Albay province alone. • However, many people were unwilling to evacuate.
  7. 7. TIMELY ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS • Schools were closed. • International flights were cancelled. • The army was placed on high alert.
  8. 8. WHAT CAN HAPPEN?
  9. 9. POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AND RISK FROM TYPHOON HAIYAN
  10. 10. HAZARDS ELEMENTS OF WINDSTORM RISK EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK
  11. 11. POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS (AKA HAZARDS) OF A TYPHOON • WIND FIELD [CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5+ (155 mph or greater)] • DEBRIS • STORM SURGE/FLOODS • HEAVY PRECIPITATION/FLOODS • LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) • COSTAL EROSION
  12. 12. WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE TYPHOONS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES CAUSES OF RISK “DISASTER LABORATORIES”
  13. 13. Rammasun is expected to bring storm surges of up to three meters (10 feet) in coastal villages
  14. 14. REMEMBERING TYPHOON HAIYAN
  15. 15. SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN DEVASTATED THE PHILIPPINES; NOVEMBER 8-10, 2013
  16. 16. HAIYAN: A SUPER TYPHOON
  17. 17. HAIYAN REACHED THE PHILIPPINES: FRIDAY, NOV. 8
  18. 18. LANDFALL ON FRIDAY MORNING, NOV. 8
  19. 19. RATED AS PROBABLY THE STRONGEST TYPHOON EVER TO STRIKE THE PHILIPPINES
  20. 20. ADVANCE EVACUATIONS • 800,000 people were evacuated to emergency shelters.
  21. 21. AN EVACUATION CENTER
  22. 22. INITIAL IMPACTS IN THE PHILIPPINES • Wide spread flooding, mudslides, and power outages • Winds of 380 kph (290 mph) • TACLOBAN hit very hard by the storm surge with many deaths • Tacloban’s airport destroyed
  23. 23. TACLOBAN (ON LEYTE ISLAND) HIT THE HARDEST
  24. 24. FOUR HOURS OF FEAR AND DESTRUCTION • Winds flattened hundreds of homes. • Heavy rainfall triggered mudslides and flash flooding. • A storm surge with waves of up to 10 m (30 feet) destroyed everything, sweeping people away and drowning thousands.
  25. 25. STORM SURGE
  26. 26. AN AERIAL VIEW • It was like a tsunami," Interior Secretary Manuel Roxas told Reuters. • "From a helicopter, you could see the extent of devastation. From the shore and moving a km inland, no structures were left standing.
  27. 27. INITIAL IMPACTS IN THE PHILIPPINES • Loss of communication • An estimated 10,000 people dead • Economic losses in the billions
  28. 28. SURVIVOR STORIES • Survivors of the storm described towering waves that swept away all but the most robust engineered structures.
  29. 29. DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE
  30. 30. DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE
  31. 31. DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE
  32. 32. DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE
  33. 33. DESTRUCTION AND DEATH EVERYWHERE
  34. 34. DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE
  35. 35. TACLOBAN AIRPORT
  36. 36. SURVIVOR NEEDS • Survivors were in desperate need of clean drinking water and food • Survivors were temporarily cut off from aid, and from their families in the Philippines as well as in other countries (e.g., 3 million in the USA)
  37. 37. USA MILITARY FORCES WERE DISPATCHED TO ASSIST LOCAL OFFICIALS IN WHAT BECAME A HISTORIC RELIEF EFFORT
  38. 38. Search and Rescue and Relief Efforts Were Hampered by Landslides and Damaged Road Systems
  39. 39. LOOKING TO THE FUTURE
  40. 40. ONCE AGAIN, TYPHOON HAIYAN DEMONSTRATED THAT IT USUALLY TAKES MULTIPLE DISASTERS BEFORE THE STRICKEN NATION WILL ADOPT POLICIES TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT
  41. 41. ONCE AGAIN, UNAFFECTED NATIONS USUALLY DON’T LEARN ANYTHING NEW AND DON’T CHANGE EXISTING POLICIES ON THE BASIS OF ANOTHER NATION’S EXPERIENCES
  42. 42. TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES AND MEASURES ARE NEEDED BY MANY NATIONS Preparedness Adoption and Implementation of a Modern Wind Engineering Building Code Time,y Early Warning and Evacuation Timely Emergency Response (including Emergency Medical Services) Cost-Effective Recovery
  43. 43. BASES FOR POLICIES THAT CALL FOR TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE EXPERIENCES WITH PREPAREDNESS EXPERIENCES WITH MONITORING AND WARNING EXPERIENCES WITH DISASTER SCENARIO PLANNING EXPERIENCES WITH RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION EXPERIENCES WITH PREVENTION, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION INTEGRATE GLOBAL EXPERIENCES WITH LOCAL EXPERIENCES
  44. 44. THE CHALLENGE: POLICY CHANGES: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS TYPHOON RESILIENCE
  45. 45. LESSON: ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS ARE THE KEY TO PREPAREDNESS • The people who know: 1) what to expect (e.g., high-velocity winds, rain, flash floods, landslides, and storm surge), 2) where and when it will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare will survive.
  46. 46. LESSON: EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS COMPLEX • All kinds of things can go wrong during the emergency response period when the uncontrollable and unthinkable events happen along with the expected events
  47. 47. LESSON: TIMING OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS VITAL • The “Uncontrollable and Unthinkable” events can significantly hinder the timing of urgent emergency response operations.
  48. 48. LESSON: TIMELY EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION SAVES LIVES • The people who have timely early warning in conjunction with a community evacuation plan that facilitates getting out of harm’s way from the risks associated with storm surge, high winds, flooding, and landslides will survive.
  49. 49. LESSON: WIND ENGINEERED BUILDINGS SAVE LIVES • Buildings protected by wind engineering to withstand a typhoon’s high velocity winds will maintain their function, protect occupants and users, and minimize death and injury.
  50. 50. LESSON: EMERGENCY MEDICAL PREPAREDNESS SAVES LIVES • Damaged hospitals and medical facilities combined with lack of clean drinking water, food, and medicine, and high levels of morbidity and mortality will quickly overrun the local community’s capacity for emergency health care.
  51. 51. LESSON: THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY PROVIDES AID • The International Community provides millions to billions of dollars in relief to help “pick up the pieces, ” but this strategy by itself is not enough to ensure typhoon disaster resilience.
  52. 52. CREATING TURNING POINTS FOR TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE  USING EDUCATIONAL SURGES CONTAINING THE PAST AND PRESENT LESSONS TO FOSTER AND ACCELERATE THE CREATION OF TURNING POINTS
  53. 53. THE PEOPLE OF THE PHILIPPINES HAVE HAD MANY OPPORTUNITIES TO LEARN VITAL LESSONS FROM PAST TYPHOONS OF ALL SIZES MAKING LANDFALL THERE The Philippines has more than enough experience with typhoons for action.

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