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Can we make megacities resilient to natural hazards?

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CAN WE MAKE MEGACITIES RESILIENT TO NATURAL HAZARDS? Cities and megacities exist by geologic, hydrologic, and atmospheric consent, which can be withdrawn without notice. Vulnerabilities reflect policy flaws with respect to preparedness, protection, response, and recovery. Preparedness, protection, response, and recovery are the most effective measures. But, they are hard to sell to the public and take time to implement.

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Can we make megacities resilient to natural hazards?

  1. 1. WHAT HISTORY TEACHES • CITIES AND MEGACITIES EXIST BY GEOLOGIC, HYDROLOGIC, AND ATMOSPHERIC CONSENT, WHICH CAN BE WITHDRAWN WITHOUT NOTICE.
  2. 2. CAN MEGACITIES BE DISASTER RESILIENT ALTHOUGH “BIG” CAN BE VERY VULNERABLE, WHY NOT
  3. 3. QUESTION • WHAT IS A MEGACITY AND WHAT MEASURES WILL MAKE IT LESS VULNERABLE TO THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS?
  4. 4. MEGACITIES IN 1900 WORLD POPULATION: 1.6 BILLION • • • • • TOKYO: 21.9 M NEW YORK: 15.6 M MEXICO CITY: 13.9 M SAO PAULO: 12.5 M SHANGHAI: 11.7 • • • • • • OSAKA: 10.0 M BUENOS AIRES: 9.9 M LOS ANGELES: 9.5 M CALCUTA 9.0 M BEIJING 9.0 M SOURCE: THE POPULATION INSTITUTE 2/3/01
  5. 5. MEGACITIES IN 2000 WORLD POPULATION: 6 BILLION • • • • • TOKYO: 25.4 M BOMBAY: 18.6 M MEXICO CITY: 18.3 M SAO PAULO: 18.0 M NEW YORK: 16.7 M • • • • • • LAGOS: 14.1 M CALCUTA 13.2 M LOS ANGELES: 13.2 M SHANGHAI: 13.0 M BUENOS AIRES: 12.7 M SOURCE: THE POPULATION INSTITUTE 2/3/01
  6. 6. MEGACITIES IN 2020 WORLD POPULATION: 10 BILLION • • • • • BOMBAY: 28.5 M TOKYO: 27.3 M LAGOS: 26.5 M DHAKA: 24.0 M KARACHI: 21.7 M • • • • • • SAO PAULO: 21.3 M MEXICO CITY: 19.6 M JAKARTA: 19.4 CALCUTA 18.8 M NEW DEHLI: 18:R M SOURCE: THE POPULATION INSTITUTE 2/3/01
  7. 7. WHAT HISTORY TEACHES • CITIES AND MEGACITIES EXIST BY GEOLOGIC, HYDROLOGIC, AND ATMOSPHERIC CONSENT, WHICH CAN BE WITHDRAWN WITHOUT NOTICE.
  8. 8. MEGACITIES FACE DISASTERS FROM … • EARTHQUAKES • FLOODS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • LANDSLIDES • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • WILDFIRES • TSUNAMIS • DROUGHTS
  9. 9. INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS • NATURAL HAZARDS, GENERATE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS WHICH CREATE RISK TO THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT. • THE CHOICE: LIVE WITH UNACCEPTABLE RISK OR ACCEPTABLE LEVELS OF RISK.
  10. 10. INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS • UNACCEPTABLE RISK CALLS FOR PUBLIC POLICIES TO REDUCE VULNERABILITIES.
  11. 11. INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS • VULNERABILITIES REFLECT POLICY FLAWS WITH RESPECT TO PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY
  12. 12. INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS • PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY ARE THE MOST EFFECTIVE MEASURES. • BUT, THEY ARE HARD TO SELL TO THE PUBLIC AND TAKE TIME TO IMPLEMENT.
  13. 13. TOKYO: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
  14. 14. CAIRO: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
  15. 15. ISTHANBUL: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
  16. 16. ISTHANBUL: CAUSES OF VULNERABILITIES • SIZE • FRAGILITY OF EXISTING BUIDINGS/ INFRASTRUCTURE • INADEQUATE PROTECTION MEASURES • CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AND PRACTICES
  17. 17. SAN FRANCISCO: DEPENDENT ON TRANSPORTATION • DAMAGE TO ONE SPAN OF THE BAY BRIDGE CHANGED THE LIVES OF MILLIONS AND DISRUPTED MANY BUSINESSES. • NOONE KNOWS THE TRUE COST.
  18. 18. LOS ANGELES: DEPENDENT ON UTILITY SYSTEMS • DAMAGE TO A UTILIYY CORRIDOR CAUSEED WIDESPREAD OUTAGES OF POWER, GAS, WATER, AND WASTE CENTERS. • OUTAGES LED TO LOSSES IN THE MILLIONS.
  19. 19. SAN FRANCISCO: SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE
  20. 20. QUESTION • CAN WE MAKE MEGACITIES RESILIENT TO NATURAL HAZARDS?
  21. 21. RISK ASSESSMENT •NAT. HAZARDS •INVENTORY •VULNERABILITY •LOCATION ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK VULNERABILITY REDUCTON DATA BASES AND INFORMATION MEGACITY DISASTER RESILIENCE HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •PREPAREDNESS •PRPTECTION •EMERGENCY RESPONSE •RECOVERY •EDUCATIONAL SURGES

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