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Flood Early Warning System in Pakistan


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The study is carried Out for analyzing the shortcomings of Flood Early Warning System in Pakistan

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Flood Early Warning System in Pakistan

  1. 1. Analyzing the shortcomings of Flood Early warning system in Pakistan Students: Dawood Jan Ismail Khan Kiramat Ullah Supervised By: Dr. Khurram Shehzad Department of Civil Engineering Gandhara Institute of Science and Technology Peshawar Peshawar03/17/13 1
  2. 2.  Introduction Problem statement Objective Literature review Findings of Literature Review Task accomplished On going task Timeline References03/17/13 2
  3. 3.  Overflow or inundation from water body causes flood. Inundations may caused due to: ▪ High rainfall ▪ Snow melting ▪ Failure of Dam/reservoir ▪ Tsunamis  Pakistan faced 150 major disasters since 1947 in which most are floods  In July 2010 Flood, about 20 million Pakistanis affected  Inundates an area of 100,000 sq-km  2000 casualties has been recorded.[1]  Overall loss of US $ 10.05 Billions  Implementation of effective flood early warning system may save lives03/17/13 3
  4. 4.  Poor early warning system for floods may increase in the damages of the livelihoods and infrastructures. Poor flood forecasting is also the cause of disastrous affects on the peoples at risk. Poor warnings may increase the post flood cost in case of urban floods.03/17/13 4
  5. 5.  To investigate the shortcomings of flood forecasting To investigate the shortcomings of communication of flood warning To investigate the shortcomings of mechanism of flood preparedness Suggest the set of actions to enhance the effectiveness of flood early warning system in Pakistan03/17/13 5
  6. 6. Continued….APPROACH EMPLOYED FOR ISSUE OF FLOOD FORECASTS:Collection of hydrological and meteorological dataTransmission/Communication of data to the forecasting CentresAnalysis of data and formulation of forecastsDissemination of forecasts and warning to the concerned Authorities of the State.  Police Stations  District management group45 PMD observatories are employed in the system, Map Attached:Models Used By PMD for FEWS are:Rainfall-Runoff Model  SAMORouting Model  SOBEK03/17/13 6
  7. 7. Literature ReviewAccomplished task Continued….  SAMO (Sacramento) is a Rainfall-Runoff Model which conforms important phenomenon of hydrological cycle such as:  Rainfall  Evaporation  Infiltration and  Base flow  It has a small computational time interval and can analysis a watershed which has been divided into several smaller parts, each having its own parameter set of:  Evaporation rate  Rainfall  The rainfall of past 24 hours, recorded through  telemetric stations  Meteorological observatories  Radar observations03/17/13 7
  8. 8. Literature Review Continued….Accomplished task  SOBEK include morphology of main rivers and characteristics of hydraulic structure  It is developed using:  Physical description of the geometry of rivers,  Continuity equation  Balance of forces governing the flow of water in open channels.  It can properly represent the influence of:  Bridges  Barrages  Dams  Propagation of flood waves.  SOBEK is used to predict:  Water level  Discharges  Extent of flooding along a river reach. 03/17/13 8
  9. 9. 03/17/13 9
  10. 10. Following are the shortcomings in the Flood forecasting: Rainfall runoff and routing of Kabul River is not incorporated in the Flood Early Warning System Model The catchments of FEWS Model also do not tally with the radar’s catchments Tributaries which have been incorporated in the FEWS Model are not gauged with respect to level/discharge The resolution of this radar images is very low and radar data is not calibrated There are no upper-air observation stations in northern mountainous area03/17/13 10
  11. 11. The comparison of Actual and Forecasted Discharge at Tarbela Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)03/17/13 11
  12. 12. 03/17/13 12
  13. 13. Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)03/17/13 13
  14. 14. Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)03/17/13 14
  15. 15. 03/17/13 15
  16. 16.  Literature Review Data Collection Visits and meetings  Flood Forecasting Division Lahore  Department of Hydrology WAPDA  Pakistan Meteorology Department Lahore  PMD Regional office Peshawar First objective which was error analysis of flood forecasting03/17/13 16
  17. 17.  Shortcomings in communication of FF System in Pakistan Shortcomings of mechanism of flood preparedness Actions and corresponding resource requirements for enhancement of effectiveness of FEWS in Pakistan03/17/13 17
  18. 18. 03/17/13 18
  19. 19. 1. Mission report (nov-2010) WMO fact-finding & needs-assessment mission to Pakistan, “review of severe flooding situation” art. 4.1 page 12.2. Mission report (nov-2010) WMO fact-finding & needs-assessment mission to Pakistan, “PMD forecasting and warning services” page 04.3. Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)03/17/13 19