Future of European  Gas Market Konstantin Simonov  Warsaw September, 22 2010
U ncertainty <ul><li>A lot of optimism now in Europe about liberalization of gas market and serious competition between ga...
Liberalization <ul><li>Liberalization of European gas market is excellent if you have  </li></ul><ul><li>Huge amount of mo...
Optimism vs. Pessimism <ul><li>Optimists:  </li></ul><ul><li>Era of gas net surplus  </li></ul><ul><li>Competition for the...
Gas Import of Europe Source: IEA – 2010!
Alternative Suppliers <ul><li>Norway has not so many proved reserves and it will be difficult to avoid “oil scenario” in n...
Alternative Suppliers Source: Vedomosti
Alternative Suppliers <ul><li>Qatar has proved reserves but there is no need to operate for a fall of market </li></ul><ul...
Third Package  <ul><li>The future of  Europol Gaz   </li></ul><ul><li>Poland is thinking that third package will change th...
Gas Balance of Poland (2009) Source: BP
Renewables <ul><li>They can help to avoid serious increasing of oil prices. But they are extremely expensive to be the rea...
Shale Gas <ul><li>The main problem is not environment or technology. The main problem is price  </li></ul><ul><li>Europe i...
Shale Gas
What will be in Future? <ul><li>In the situation of  uncertainty  optimistic forecasts can  play a trick on  EU </li></ul>...
<ul><li>Thank you!  </li></ul><ul><li>www.energystate.ru </li></ul>
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Future of european gas market

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Future of european gas market

  1. 1. Future of European Gas Market Konstantin Simonov Warsaw September, 22 2010
  2. 2. U ncertainty <ul><li>A lot of optimism now in Europe about liberalization of gas market and serious competition between gas producers </li></ul><ul><li>But two years ago situation and expectations were absolutely different </li></ul><ul><li>In reality we don’t now exactly what will be with European market in future </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in European position </li></ul><ul><li>2008: Main question: What will be with the level of production in Russia ? Can Russia guarantee the discharge of long term contacts? Russia must do it!!! </li></ul><ul><li>2010: Russia is not so important as gas supplier. We found an alternatives! We have no need in long term contracts, spot market is our future! </li></ul><ul><li>2015-??? </li></ul>
  3. 3. Liberalization <ul><li>Liberalization of European gas market is excellent if you have </li></ul><ul><li>Huge amount of money to build new pipelines inside Europe </li></ul><ul><li>Net surplus of gas </li></ul>
  4. 4. Optimism vs. Pessimism <ul><li>Optimists: </li></ul><ul><li>Era of gas net surplus </li></ul><ul><li>Competition for the consumer </li></ul><ul><li>Shale gas </li></ul><ul><li>Renewables </li></ul><ul><li>Pessimists </li></ul><ul><li>Production in Europe is going down very fast </li></ul><ul><li>It will be difficult to find extra amount of gas </li></ul><ul><li>Potential of shale gas and renewables ere overestimate d </li></ul>
  5. 5. Gas Import of Europe Source: IEA – 2010!
  6. 6. Alternative Suppliers <ul><li>Norway has not so many proved reserves and it will be difficult to avoid “oil scenario” in near future </li></ul>Source: BP
  7. 7. Alternative Suppliers Source: Vedomosti
  8. 8. Alternative Suppliers <ul><li>Qatar has proved reserves but there is no need to operate for a fall of market </li></ul><ul><li>The same tempo of increasing of production is questionably </li></ul><ul><li>Qatar already announced decline of LNG production by 66%. Ras Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas and Qatar Liquefied Gas closed 50% of there LNG facilities </li></ul>Source: BP
  9. 9. Third Package <ul><li>The future of Europol Gaz </li></ul><ul><li>Poland is thinking that third package will change the situation. But in reality the main question is still the same - is it possible to find alternative gas? </li></ul><ul><li>Other producers can have an access to the pipeline – but first you must find them </li></ul><ul><li>For Russia the most sensitive question is tariffs on transportation </li></ul><ul><li>Liberalization in the situation of gas deficit can be dangerous </li></ul>
  10. 10. Gas Balance of Poland (2009) Source: BP
  11. 11. Renewables <ul><li>They can help to avoid serious increasing of oil prices. But they are extremely expensive to be the real substitute of fossil fuel </li></ul><ul><li>Denmark case </li></ul>Source: BP
  12. 12. Shale Gas <ul><li>The main problem is not environment or technology. The main problem is price </li></ul><ul><li>Europe is thinking that shale gas will result in cheap gas. But if you want to begin the production you must very high prices on gas </li></ul>
  13. 13. Shale Gas
  14. 14. What will be in Future? <ul><li>In the situation of uncertainty optimistic forecasts can play a trick on EU </li></ul><ul><li>Polish case: a lot of expectations (shale gas, LNG, Norway etc) but no gas!!! </li></ul>
  15. 15. <ul><li>Thank you! </li></ul><ul><li>www.energystate.ru </li></ul>

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