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Ukraine – more a bridge, than an island

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Jozsef Balogh, Axpo Trading, Switzerland

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Ukraine – more a bridge, than an island

  1. 1. Ukraine – more a bridge, than an island • Jozsef Balogh, Axpo Trading, Switzerland • Introductory points: • Private ideas; • Do not quote, without prior, written approval; • All data from Argus Media
  2. 2. Ukraine electricity import to Hungary is important • As a main rule, roughly 10% of Hungarian electricity volume is from Ukraine; • Not marginal; o If Ukrainian import is not coming, HUPX spikes. This start a domino effect covering Czech to Bulgaria region; o On, if Ukraine exports too much to Hungary, HUPX is likely to collapse
  3. 3. In addition to export, Ukraine is also a transit route • Slovakia, Hungary and Romania inter- connected in a complex matrix; o SK to HU o SK to RO o RO to HU o HU to RO o Etc • It started as a ‘by-the-way’ activity, but might well be THE last marginal MWh setting the price in HU and/or in RO
  4. 4. But transits are random and have little correlation with market prices: and this makes HUPX even more volatile
  5. 5. London Houston Singapore Moscow Dubai New York Calgary Santiago Rio de Janeiro Beijing Shanghai Tokyo Sydney Astana Kiev Cape Town Riga San Francisco Washington Market Reporting Consulting Events Argus gas and power market seminar, Kyiv 28 September 2017 Attendance is free. Contact eleanor.green@argusmedia.com to register

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