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Sunny Days Ahead

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The objective of this white paper is to provide inputs and intelligence for the manufacturing activities in India for the solar PV ecosystem – for both crystalline and thin film technologies while addressing the question of which technology is most suitable under Indian conditions from a regulatory, financial and technical perspective. The topics discussed spans the entire value chain which includes

c-Si Value Chain

Polysilicon
Wafer
Cells
Modules
Thin Film Technologies

a-Si
CdTe
CIGS/CIS
detailed technological comparison of the available module technologies i.e. c-Si and Thin Film has been undertaken along with a comparative analysis of the financials that goes into the manufacturing of modules using either technology.

In addition to the traditional manufacturing options in the value chain, the paper provides critical insight into other, lesser treaded avenues such as raw material manufacturing, machineries and equipment manufacture and other non-core solar products such as glasses, solar grade cables etc. The report is rounded off with an insightful analysis of the policy regime existent in terms of what has been done and what needs to be done to nurture the development of a complete solar PV ecosystem

- See more at: http://www.eai.in/ref/wp/analysis-of-manufacturing-opportunities-in-the-solar-pv-value-chain.html

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Sunny Days Ahead

  1. 1. Sunny Days Ahead 1 Preface For entrepreneurs and businesses exploring opportunities in the solar PV domain, power production opportunities are the most apparent. Opportunities available along the other parts of the solar PV value chain, especially in the manufacturing sector are much less in the limelight. While power production as a business opportunity has its attractions, especially taking into account the National Solar Mission (NSM) incentives, this is essentially a PPA-based business model, with little upside potential. On the other hand, in order for India to become a leader in solar power sector, it is imperative that India is able to develop a strong supporting eco-system to support the growth in solar PV power production. Of prime importance to this support eco-system is the role of manufacturing activities within the solar PV value chain.Unlike the power production opportunities, manufacturing opportunities bring with them the possibility of higher innovation and significantly higher upsides. In order to participate in these opportunities, and to take critical investment decisions, a better understanding of these is essential for Indian businesses.The objective of this white paper is to provide inputs and intelligence for the manufacturing activities in India for the solar PV ecosystem – for both crystalline and thin film technologies. EAI is India’s leading research and consulting group with a dedicated focus on the Indian renewable energy sector. The white paper has been developed by EAI as a part of the Solarcon India 2011 by SEMI, held at Hyderabad in November2011. Narasimhan Santhanam Director Energy Alternatives India narsi@eai.in
  2. 2. Sunny Days Ahead 2
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Sunny Days Ahead 3 Contents INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................... 5 POTENTIAL IN INDIA .....................................................................................................................................................................6 RESOURCE ASSESSMENT..............................................................................................................................................................6 REGIONAL POTENTIAL ..................................................................................................................................................................7 PV TECHNOLOGIES ..................................................................................................................................... 8 CRYSTALLINE SILICON (C-SI).......................................................................................................................................................8 THIN FILM (TF) .............................................................................................................................................................................8 COMPARISON BETWEEN CRYSTALLINE AND THIN FILM PANELS .............................................................................................9 SOLAR PV MANUFACTURING SCENARIO ............................................................................................. 16 CRYSTALLINE SILICON ................................................................................................................................................................16 Polysilicon............................................................................................................................................................................17 Wafer.....................................................................................................................................................................................19 Cells........................................................................................................................................................................................20 Modules ...............................................................................................................................................................................21 THIN FILMS..................................................................................................................................................................................22 Amorphous Silicon (a-Si)...............................................................................................................................................22 Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)............................................................................................................................................23 Copper Indium Gallium (di)Selinide (CIGS)............................................................................................................23 OTHER MANUFACTURING OPTIONS.........................................................................................................................................24 Raw Material, Machineries and Equipment for Core Products ......................................................................24 Non-core Solar Products...............................................................................................................................................29 CENTRAL AND STATE POLICY ANALYSIS...................................................................................................................................30 Central ..................................................................................................................................................................................30 State Policy .........................................................................................................................................................................32 CONCLUSION............................................................................................................................................. 33 ANNEXURE I............................................................................................................................................... 34 ANNEXURE II ............................................................................................................................................. 37 ANNEXURE III ............................................................................................................................................ 38 EAI - ASSISTING YOUR COMPANY FOR ATTRACTIVE MANUFACTURING OPPORTUNITIES IN SOLAR PV ................................................................................................................................................... 43 ABOUT SEMI AND PV GROUP................................................................................................................. 47
  4. 4. Sunny Days Ahead 4 Highlights Polysilicon  Currently, there is no polysilicon manufacturing capacity in India  To sustain 20 GW worth of installations, over 14,000 MT per year of polysilicon manufacturing capacity would be required Wafer  There is currently no wafer manufacturing company in India with significant production capacity  To sustain 20 GW worth of targeted installations, over 2000 MW per year of wafer manufacture would be required Cells  Local content requirements will ensure robust demand for local cell manufacturing  Stimulus for domestic cell manufacturing will not only be from the Central policy, but also from some state policies promoting domestic manufacture and vertical integration Modules  Significant growth in domestic module uptake is expected in India; however, this is not being exploited by Indian module makers owing to uncompetitive prices  Vertical integration is the key factor that determines the cost-competitiveness of solar modules  While thin films have as high an acceptance level in India as crystalline silicon module, thin films do not have as much competition Production Equipment  77% of the Indian manufacturing capacity is expected to be powered by turn- key lines, indicating significant promise for this sector in terms of manufacturing and system integration
  5. 5. Sunny Days Ahead 5 Introduction Located close to the equator, India has a tropical climate and is endowed with abundant sunshine. This, along with the fact both the country’s economic growth and energy demand are burgeoning, makes solar a prime player in the renewable energy industry in India. Solar Radiation Map (Energy Density) of the World (Source: AltE) As can be seen from the above image, India is a prime location for the installation of solar based energy systems as opposed to regions in, say, Europe. This is due to the higher amount of solar radiation received, which is about 2-4 kwh/m2 higher than most regions in Europe. Despite this, the growth of solar in India (over the past few years) has not been as high as regions in Europe. This may be attributed to investors being wary of a nascent technology (within India) and the lack of a strong, structured and stable solar policy. The National Solar Mission aims to address the issue of the lack of a stable policy. The results of this mission are already evident – with the introduction of this policy, grid connected installed capacity of solar grew from negligible levels to about 45 MW (As of July 2011) over the span of only 2 years. The policy has provided the necessary impetus for the explosive growth of solar in India. The mission aims to not only increase the installed solar power production capacity (to 20 GW) but also envisages the development of a full-fledged domestic solar equipment manufacturing ecosystem. The ambitious production targets include  2 GW of Polysilicon capacity by 2022  4-5 GW of production capacity across the value chain by 2022
  6. 6. Sunny Days Ahead 6 Potential in India Theoretically, about 5000 trillion kWh/m2 of solar energy is incident across the entire area of the country, with daily averages of incident radiation falling between 4 and 7 kWh/m2 /day. While the theoretical potential stated seems like a large number, the actual potential is significantly lower due to various constraints such as:  Available area for plant development  Useful solar energy capture area within the power plant  Theoretical conversion efficiency limits for solar PV based systems Resource Assessment The solar resource map of India has been developed using data extrapolated from satellite imagery.The areas with the highest potential for solar based power generation are concentrated in the peninsular region of the country – with Rajasthan being the only noteworthy exception.About 1.75 million sq. km of land receives an annual irradiation of about 5.5 to 6 kWh/m2 /day. In addition to this, about 1.1 million sq. km of land receives irradiation between 5 and 5.5 kWh/m2 /day putting the total available (optimal) area for setting up solar power plants at about 1.85 million square km. Why resource assessment matters  Accurate site comparison and selection  Energy estimates can be made with greater confidence  Predicting financial viability (a function of revenue and hence electricity generated)  Increasing the bankability of the project  Performance validation  Utility forecasting and grid interfacing Relative uncertainties for resource assessments1 (Source: AWSTruepower) 1 Satellite Modelled Data is what is commonlyused. GHI – Global Horizontal Irradiance data is what is applicable to solar PV power plants and is measured on the ground (at the site) using a pyranometer
  7. 7. Sunny Days Ahead 7 As such, the accuracy of this information is not very high. Furthermore, data in some regions with high suitability for solar power plants are available only at very low spatial resolutions undermining the accuracy of it even more. A key hindrance to the growth of solar power in India is the lack of availability of accurate irradiation data. The lack of this information severely limits a developer’s capability to accurately predict the amount of electricity which a plant is expected to generate and hence the revenues he is expected to accrue. This is one of the major factors that has stunted new investment in the solar energy sector. Regional Potential Regional potential of each state in India can be viewed from two angles – actual insolation incident on the state and the state specific policy adopted. Ideally, the state with the highest potential would have an intersection of the two. Insolation Driver A look at the solar insolation map of India shows that the southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and states in north western India such as Gujarat, MP and Rajasthan have the best solar radiation in the country. States such as Arunachal Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Kerala, Orissa, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal also have reasonable potential, but there is very little installed capacity in these regions. Policy Driver The key driver for region specific growth is not just the amount of solar insolation the state receives, but the presence of a strong state solar policy.As of August 2011, only three states have come up with concrete solar specific polices. These include – Gujarat, Rajasthan and Karnataka.The Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra governments are expected to come up with their state solar policy soon. Of these, the Gujarat and Rajasthan state policies are the ones that are both aggressive and ambitious, with Gujarat looking to add close to 1 GW of solar PV in the coming years.Due to the policy, regulatory support and higher solar insolation, Gujarat and Rajasthan are likely to be the hotbeds for solar PV development in India in the short term.
  8. 8. Sunny Days Ahead 8 PV Technologies Solar PV systems can be broadly classified into two types based on the type of technology employed  Crystalline Silicon (c-Si)  Thin Film (TF) Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) These solar cells are manufactured from bulk crystalline silicon material known as MGSi. This raw material, through various processes is converted to semiconducting wafers which generate electricity when exposed to solar radiation through a process known as the photovoltaic effect. Among the various technologies available, c-Si based generation is the oldest and most mature electricity generation system. Based on the crystalline structure of the ingot/wafer used, c-Si based modules are further divided into the following categories  Monocrystalline  Polycrystalline or Multicrystalline Monocrystalline modules are more expensive than multicrystalline modules but at the same time they are more efficient i.e. they produce more electricity per watt of installed capacity. Thin Film (TF) Thin film technologies evolved as a result of low polysilicon availability for the manufacture of c-Si based modules. Thin film modules are typically characterised by their lower material requirement for the manufacture of a photoactive layer. Due to the lower grade and quantity of raw materials used, these modules are usually less efficient when compared to c-Si based modules. These modules are significantly cheaper due to the lower material cost coupled with the fact that there are fewer steps involved in the manufacturing process. The lower efficiencies as well as other drawbacks are being overcome using more exotic materials and diverse manufacturing processes. Based on the type of material used for cell manufacture, TFPV can be further classified as  Amorphous Silicon (a-Si)  Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)  Copper Indium Gallium (di)Selinide (CIGS)
  9. 9. Sunny Days Ahead 9 The figure below illustrates some of the key differences between the various thin film based solar cells. The difference lies mainly in the process employed to put the various layers of the cell together as well as how the layers are laid out. Overview of Thin Film Technologies Comparison between Crystalline and Thin Film Panels Thin film solar cells Monocrystalline solar cells Polycrystalline/ Multi crystalline solar cells Construction Thin film made by depositing one or more thin layers (thin film) of photovoltaic material on a substrate. Monocrystalline cells are cut from a chunk of silicon that has been grown from a single crystal. A polycrystalline cell is cut from multifaceted silicon crystal.
  10. 10. Sunny Days Ahead 10 Efficiency Less efficient than polycrystalline and monocrystalline panels. Efficiency range – 10% to 12% Efficient compared to both polycrystalline and thin film. Efficiency range – 15% to 19% More efficient than thin film solar cell but less efficient than Monocrystalline solar cell Efficiency range – 11% to 15% Flexibility Yes (using plastic glazing) No No Weight Light weight compared to monocrystalline cells and polycrystalline cells. Heavier compared to thin film but less in weight compared to polycrystalline cells. Heavier than monocrystalline modules. Price $0.93 per watt (€0.69 per watt) $1.12 per watt(€0.83 per watt) $1.02 per watt (€0.75 per watt) Area (Avg. capacity per 1000 sq. m) 0.623 MW 0.98 to 1MW 0.91MW Stability Less stable Very good stability Good stability and better than thin film solar. Performance Performance is less compared to monocrystalline solar cells. Better than polycrystalline cells and thin film solar cells. Performance is less compared to monocrystalline cells Temperature Thin film solar cells are largely unaffected while operating under higher temperatures Monocrystalline panels operate at decreased efficiencies in higher temperatures Multi crystalline panels operate at wide range of temperatures.
  11. 11. Sunny Days Ahead 11 Market Share Currently, c-Si dominates the global PV cell manufacturing segment with a share of about 83% of the total cell production. It is expected that the market share for thin film technologies is expected to increase significantly with estimates pegging the number between 21% and 29% by 20122 . With falling c-Si prices (estimates suggest that the price could drop below $1 per Wp by 20143 ), thin film’s market share would depend on  Maintaining the cost savings advantage offered by thin films (i.e. the absolute price difference between thin films and c-Si modules has to be maintained. Thus thin film module prices have to drop to match the crashing c-Si prices). This is the primary factor that makes thin film technologies bankable as opposed to c-Si due to the lack of availability of reliable information over the project life.  Improving efficiency of thin film cells  Reduction in balance of system costs associated with thin film based power plants  Higher rates of adoption in developing countries – mainly in Asia, Africaand South America(owing to better suitability to higher temperature conditions in addition to lower capital requirements) Market share of various technologies (Source: GTM Research) The Indian Context It is interesting to note that this global trend does not necessarily apply to India. For instance, of the 30 winners (28 of whom achieved financial closure) under Phase 1 Batch 1 of the National Solar Mission, 50% of the winners went with c-Si and the other 50% went with thin film. 2 Source: GTM Research 3 Source: iSuppli
  12. 12. Sunny Days Ahead 12 The primary factors driving this trend could be attributed to  Lower capital costs associated with thin film based power plants  Ease of availability and lower cost of landand lower labour BoS cost (lower labour, project management, civil and construction costs) for setting up power plants  Availability of better financing options from foreign banks (E.g. Ex-Im bank offers cheap loans at lower interest rate when procuring modules from US manufacturers). Technology Suitability for India Bankability Banks tend to prefer well established technologies, with a proven track record for financing projects. In view of this and the fact that the solar energy sector in itself is in a nascent stage in India, c-Si has the upper hand considering the technology has been around for around 30 years meaning it is has proven credentials for a time period equal to the entire operational life of a power plant. However, in case of thin film, as the technology is new it does not have a proven track record. Thus the performance of the system cannot be guaranteed over the lifetime of operation of the power plant. This makes the system prone to heavier scrutiny frombanks. Land Requirement One of the prime criteria for selection of technology for a power plant is the availability of suitable land (both in the qualitative and quantitative sense) to setup the power plant. Thin film technologies typically require more land than c-Si based systems due to their lower power density. However, in India, large tracts of land are readily available (at cheap rates when compared with project costs), nullifying the advantage offered by c-Si in this regard. In this scenario, the project cost becomes the limiting factor tipping the scales in favour of thin films. Project Cost The overall project cost plays a major role in the final decision to go ahead with investment as it lays the foundation for determining the profitability of the project. The project cost can be considered to be the sum of two components – the modules and the balance of systems cost.  Module Cost – this attributes to about 60% of the project cost. In this respect, thin films hold the advantage.c-Si modules are about 25% to 40% more expensive per Wp when compared with thin film4 . 4 Source: EnergyTrend
  13. 13. Sunny Days Ahead 13 Capital Cost Breakup for Solar PV  BoS Cost – this component, in most cases forms the rest of the project cost of any power plant. In this respect, c-Si holds the advantage. In general, BoS costs are about 9% higher for thin film technologies when compared to c-Si technologies5 . However in the Indian context, the BoS costs play a subdued role in choice of technology due to lower labour, project management, civil and construction costs. Comparison of BoS Costs Between c-Si and Thin Film Based Systems (Source: GTM Research) The cost savings from module offsets the additional BoS cost requirement for thin film, thus making the overall project cost of thin film based systems lower than that of c-Si systems or in the worst case, comparable. 5 Source: GTM Research 1% 52% 22% 9% 7% 2% 7% Capital Cost Breakup for Solar PV Land PV Modules PCU Civil & General Works Mounting Structures Evacuation Cost Preliminary & Preoperative Expenses
  14. 14. Sunny Days Ahead 14 Alternative Financing Alternate financing mechanisms are available for projects which import modules from foreign countries. For instance Ex-Im, OPIC, EDC etc. offer attractive financing options at lower interest rates for import of modules from USA and Canada respectively. In view of this, more project developers are looking to import modules from abroad. However, with JNNSM acting as the most popular (preferred) framework for solar development in India, this route may be taken by thin film technologies alone. This is a direct result of the local content requirement enforced by the policy which (as of Phase I, Batch II) is applicable only to c-Si based power generation. High temperature applications The close proximity of India to the equator results in the country not only receiving abundant solar irradiation but also being exposed to harsh temperatures. The average temperatures for most locations suitable for putting up solar farms are in excess of 30 degree centigrade (while guaranteed performance of modules is rated at 25 degrees under standard test conditions). Module performance degrades with increase in temperature (above standard conditions). The degree to which the performance drops is measured through a factor known as temperature coefficient. Thin film modules are inherently less prone to severe increases in temperatures while c-Si modules show considerable performance losses at higher temperatures. Owing to this, thin film might be more suitable to Indian climatic conditions. Technology Performance at Different Locations & Under Different Climatic Conditions (Source: NREL, GTM Research)
  15. 15. Sunny Days Ahead 15 A recent study6 showed that thin film modules produced significantly more electricity (about 5% more in favour of thin films)per unit of installed capacityin high temperature regions (Refer figure above. Here, Phoenix experiences climatic conditions similar to most sites in India). Some of the possible reasons for the above trend could be  Less negative temperature coefficient which gives thin film silicon modules a performance advantage over c-Si modules at increasingly high irradiance and cell temperatures  Better performance under diffused light conditions – the thin film silicon panels out- perform c-Si, due to a combination of spectral and angle-of-incidence effects Local Content Requirement As per guidelines under Phase 1, Batch 2 of JNNSM scheme, all power plants using c-Si based technology are required to procure their cells and modules from local manufacturers. This could lead to a shortage of supply or out-dated, inefficient modules. However, thin film modules are exempt from this regulation meaning that they can be procured from any provider outside India – thus ensuring technological superiority as well as bringing in the added experience of foreign project integrators. Trackingand Diffuse Light Performance Tracking systems help improve the output of a power plant by up to 10%.These systems are more suitable for projects employing c-Si technology than thin film technology. This is because thin film based systems generate electricity even under lower irradiance conditions (i.e. under diffused light conditions). Indian project developers and system integrators generally do not go for tracking systems. This may be attributed to  Lack of technical expertise  Lack of local tracking system manufacturers (currently there is only one tracking system manufacturer in India7 )  Tracking system cost is not offset by the excess electricity generated In view of this, it would be advisable to go for thin film based systems as their peak performance is not dependant(to a large extent) on the presence of tracking systems. 6 Source: NREL, GTM Research 7 Source: Sunflower Solutions (www.sunflowersolutions.in/in/)
  16. 16. Sunny Days Ahead 16 Solar PV Manufacturing Scenario Solar PV manufacturing, being a technology intensive sector has for a considerable amount of time been dominated by companies in Europe and USA. However, since 2005 the manufacturing base has slowly shifted towards the East, primarily to China. With close to 60% of the global PV manufacturing base now in China it is safe to say that the country is the undisputed global leader in the Solar PV manufacturing segment. Global Solar PV Manufacturing Scenario (Source: EPIA) Vertical integration is one of the key factors that help a company remain cost competitive in this sector. In addition to this, the scale of manufacturing also plays a very key role in determining the final cost of the module. In India, there are very few companies in the upstream segment of the solar PV manufacturing value chain viz., in the manufacturing of polysilicon and ingots/wafers.The highest concentration of companies is limited to the manufacture of modules with considerably fewer players (about ten) in the cell manufacturing segment. The cell and module lines are expected to grow over the next few years with the National Solar Mission stipulating strict domestic content requirements. These production lines are expected to be powered by turn-key solutions from foreign companies, as opposed to home-built solutions. Crystalline Silicon The c-Si module manufacturing process begins with the manufacture of pure polycrystalline silicon followed by their conversion into ingots/wafers through a method known as the
  17. 17. Sunny Days Ahead 17 Czochralski process. Following this, the ingots/wafers are converted into cells and finally assembled into modules. Solar PV Value Chain Polysilicon Polysilicon production is the first step in the c-Si solar PV value chain. The demand for polysilicon for use in the solar energy industry has been growing at the rate of 30% annually. Of the total global production of polysilicon, about 75% is used in the solar PV manufacturing sector with the semiconductor industry coming in at a distant second8 . The primary difference in the polysilicon used in the solar PV sector and the electronics industry is its purity. The former uses 6N grade polysilicon while the latter uses 9N grade (higher purity). The global production of polysilicon was about 350,000 MT in 2010. This figure is expected to rise to about 370,000 MT in 2011, with the top 5 companies expected to ramp up production to meet the increase in demand from the solar PV industry as well as remain cost competitive. 8 Source: WackerChemie AG Polysilicon Ingots & Wafers Cells Modules Rooftop/ Off grid Grid Power Plant Solar Products Micro Mini Lanterns and lights Solar water pumps Other Solar Products a-Si, CdTe, CIGS (Thin Film)
  18. 18. Sunny Days Ahead 18 Capacity Global – 350,000 MT (2010). Expected to grow to 370,000 MT (2011) Local – none Cost of Production Current – $30 to $35 per Kg Expected – About $25 per Kg by 2011 Production Yield 1 tonne of pure polysilicon can be obtained from 1.2 to 1.6 tonnes of MGSi Electricity Requirement About 100 to 200 kWh per Kg Price Current – Between $42 and $51 per Kg Global production is dominated by the top 5 companies in the industry. Together, these companies account for close to 75% of the total global production (refer table below). Currently, there is no significant production of polysilicon in India. Lanco Solar, Bhaskar Silicon and Yash Birla Group have announced plans to set up polysilicon manufacturing plants in India. Rank Company Country Annual Production 2010 (MT) Expected Production 2011 (MT) 1 Hemlock Semiconductor USA 36,000 36,000 2 WackerChemie Germany 30,500 33,000 3 OCI Company South Korea 27,000 42,000 4 GCL-Poly China 21,000 21,000 5 REC Silicon Norway 16,000 17,500 6 MEMC USA 12,500 15,000 7 LDK China 11,000 18,000 8 Tokuyama Japan 8,200 8,200 9 M.Seteck Japan 6,000 7,000 10 Daqo New Energy China 3,300 4,300 List of Top Global Manufacturers of Polysilicon (Source: PV Magazine)
  19. 19. Sunny Days Ahead 19 Wafer A silicon wafer is a thin slice of crystal semiconductor, such as a material made up from silicon crystal, which is circular in shape. They are used in the manufacturing of semiconductor devices, integrated circuits and other small devices. There are multiple processes through which silicon wafers are manufactured. These include  Czochralski Process – for manufacture of monocrystalline ingots  Bricking/Solidification – for manufacture of multicrystalline ingots Capacity Global – About 29 GW (2010). Expected to grow to about 42 GW (2011) Local – none Cost of Production Current – 25 to 50 cents per Wp Production Yield 1 Wp equivalent of wafer requires about 6 to 7 grams of pure polysilicon Price Multi-Si Wafer (156mm x 156mm) - $1.87 to $2.10 Mono-Si Wafer (156mm x 156mm) - $2.43 to $2.85 As is the case with polysilicon, wafer production too is dominated by global players, with little to no competition from Indian players. In fact,there is no significant production of wafers in India. However, Lanco Solar, Yash Birla Group, Carborundum Universal, Bhaskar Silicon and Reliance Solar are expected to setup their wafer manufacturing units in the coming years. Rank Company Country Production Capacity 2010(MW) Expected capacity 2011 (MW) 1 LDK Solar China 3,000 4,000 2 REC Wafer Norway 1,740 2,300 3 GCL Poly China 3,500 3,500 4 Solarworld Germany 1,250 1,260 5 Renesola China 1,210 1,800 6 Yingli China 1,000 1,700 7 Trina Solar China 750 1,200 8 MEMC USA 650 1,200
  20. 20. Sunny Days Ahead 20 9 Pillar Spain 700 720 10 Green Energy tech Taiwan 800 1,500 List of Top Global Wafer Manufacturers (Source: PV Magazine) Cells The third step in the solar PV value chain is the manufacture of cells from the wafers. This step involves the conversion of the wafer to a photoactive diode i.e. a piece of semiconductor that is able to generate free electrons when exposed to sunlight. Capacity Global – About 33 GW (2010). Expected to grow to about 48 GW (2011) Local – About 600 MW (2010) Cost of Production Current – 25 to 40 cents per Wp (excluding feedstock) Price Between 70 cents and 85 cents per Wp The total global cell manufacturing capacity is about 30 GW. As with wafers, China dominates this segment too, with about 50% of the total global manufacturing capacity. It is interesting to note that of the top 10 companies globally, one is a thin film cell manufacturer (FirstSolar). Furthermore, 50% of the companies in the list manufacture both cells and modules – a move towards vertical integration and cost cutting. Rank Company Country Annual Production Capacity in 2010(MW) Actual Production in 2010(MW) 1 Suntech China 1800 1585 2 JA Solar China 2100 1463 3 First Solar(Thin film) USA 1502 1411 4 Trina China 1200 1050 5 Q-cells(includes Thin film) Germany 1265 1014 6 Yingli China 1000 980 7 Motech Taiwan 1200 945 8 Sharp(includes Thin Film) Japan 1000 910 9 Gintech Taiwan 930 827
  21. 21. Sunny Days Ahead 21 10 Kyocera Japan 650 List of Top Global Cell Manufacturers (Source: Photon) The Indian scenario for cell manufacture is not as barren as is the case for polysilicon and wafer production. There are about 10 companies involved in cell manufacture in India (refer Annexure I for a detailed list). The total cell manufacturing capacity of these companies amounts to about 600 MW which is still a far cry from the available capacities the world over. The leading companies in terms of available capacity include Indosolar, Moser Baer (thin film), TATA BP solar and Websol. The key thing to note with the Indian companies is that they are strictly into cell and module manufacturing with no vertical integration. This leads to their cells and modules not being cost competitive with the cells/modules from world leaders such as the Chinese manufacturers. Modules The final step in the value chain is the assembly of the various solar cells into modules. The process in this stage involves the interconnection and packaging of multiple cells into a single unit. The price of a PV module is mainly influenced by the price of the cells it incorporates. Capacity Global – About 37 GW (2010) Local – About 1200 MW (2010) Production Yield Dependent on module rating. Each cell has a rating of about 4 Watts. Price About $1.2 per Wp The solar module manufacturing segment is highly fragmented due to the ease of manufacturing of the module – which in essence is just an assembly process and the low capital cost involved in setting up of the assembly line. The top global manufacturers of modules include Suntech Power, FirstSolar, Yingli Green Energy, Trina Solar and Sharp.
  22. 22. Sunny Days Ahead 22 Actual Production of Top Global Module Manufacturers (Source: GTM Research) In India, there are about 40 module manufacturers with cumulative installed capacities of about 1200 MW. A detailed list of the Indian module manufacturers can be found in Annexure I. Thin Films Amorphous Silicon (a-Si) a-Si is the oldest of the three thin film technologies. As such, it commands the largest market share among the three available thin film technologies. a-Si modules have double the market share of the nearest rival i.e. CdTe. The top global a-Si based module manufacturers include Suntech, Sharp Thin Film and Trony Solar. Rank Company Country Actual Production in 2010(MW) 1 Sharp Solar Japan 195 2 Trony Solar China 138 3 Uni-Solar USA 120 4 NexPower China 85 5 Kaneka Solartech Co. Ltd Japan 58 List of top Global a-Si Manufacturers (Source: GTM Research)
  23. 23. Sunny Days Ahead 23 In India, Moser Baer is the only company with a-Si based module manufacturing facilities, with a production capacity of about 50 MW, making it one of the leading global players too. The costs associated with the manufacture of a-Si module is about $1.1 per Wp. Current market price for a-Si modules is about $1.2 per Wp making the profit margin pretty low. Since a-Si based solar modules have some of the lowest efficiencies compared to other solar PV modules, in the future it is expected that pure a-Si would have very low demand. They are scheduled to be replaced by some of the more advanced technologies such as tandem junction cells, which employ a combination of both a-Si and c-Si technologies. Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) CdTe has the second highest market share of the three thin film technologies. CdTe has seen significant growth mainly due to the aggressive push by US based FirstSolar who have a virtual stranglehold on the CdTe (as well as the thin film) market. Their module production capacity was about 1400 MW in 2010. To put their dominance in perspective, the next closest company, Sharp (which manufactures a-Si based thin film modules) has a capacity of about 195 MW. Rank Company Country Annual Production Capacity in 2010 (MW) 1 First Solar USA 1400 2 Abound Solar USA 65 3 PrimeStar Solar USA 30 4 Calyxo GmbH Germany 25 List of Top Global CdTe Manufacturers Some of the other players in the CdTe segment are Abound Solar, Primestar Solar and Calyxo GmbH. Currently, there are no manufacturing units producing CdTe based modules in India. The cost of production of a CdTe module is about $0.8 per Wp while the market sale price is close to $1 per Wp. This makes CdTe based modules one of the cheapest modules available in the market. Further, FirstSolar has stated that the price of the modules could fall to about $0.75 per Wp by 2012. Copper Indium Gallium (di)Selinide (CIGS) Of the three thin film technologies, CIGS is the newest. The advantage of CIGS is that it does not use any toxic or rare earth materials during the manufacturing process. Thus CIGS is
  24. 24. Sunny Days Ahead 24 expected to be the future of Thin Film based solar power generation systems if it can remain cost competitive. The cost of production of a CIGS module varies between $1.2 and $1.3 per Wp while the selling price is about $1.4 per Wp making it the most expensive thin film based generation system. However, there is significant potential for cost reduction considering the nascent nature of the technology. A significant portion of the total installed production capacity (about 800 MW) is attributed to Solar Frontier. Other global production companies include Nanosolar, Avancis and Solibro Solar (a subsidiary of Q-Cells). In India, Shurjo Energy has a production capacity of about 7 MW9 . No other company manufactures CIGS based modules in India, as of September 2011. Other Manufacturing Options Raw Material, Machineries and Equipment for Core Products Opportunities exist in manufacturing raw material and equipment for the following:  Ingots  Wafers  Cell  Modules Raw Materials A wide variety of raw materials and starting products are required for the entire solar PV value chain. This section provides inputs on the key raw materials and starting products required at each stage of the value chain. These inputs will provide the entrepreneurs excellent insights into the types of opportunities that could be most suitable for them, depending on their current line of business and their competencies. In the tables below: 1) The LEFT HAND SIDE column indicates the MAIN MATERIALS required for Manufacturing 2) The RIGHT HAND SIDE column indicates the sub components required for each material 9 Source: Shurjo Energy (Company Website)
  25. 25. Sunny Days Ahead 25 Ingot Main Materials Sub components to make the materials Polysilicon Modified Siemens CVD reactor, Vapor-to-Liquid deposition reactor, Fluidized bed reactor Recycled Materials Broken Wafer, Top/Tail of Ingot Crucible Quartz crucible, Graphite Crucible, Ceramic Crucible Carbon Felt Carbon Felt Other Seed Crystal Wafer Main Materials Sub components to make the materials Ingot Moncrystalline or Polycrystalline ingot Saw Band Saw band Slurry Black Silicon Carbide, Green Silicon Carbide, Recycled cutting liquid Recycled Silicon Carbide Saw Wire Saw Wire Ingot Mounting Adhesives Adhesives Acids Sulfuric Acid, Hydrochloric acid Cell Main Materials Sub components to make the materials Wafers Moncrystalline and Polycrystalline wafers Metallization Paste Silver Paste, Aluminum Paste Screen Screen Chemicals Isopropyl Alcohol, Ammonia, Phosphorus oxychloride, Sulfuric acid, hydrochloric acid, Potassium hydroxide, sodium hydroxide Silane Silane Crystalline Modules Main Materials Sub components to make the materials Ribbon Lead ribbon, Copper Ribbon. Lead free ribbon, tin coated copper ribbon, Glass Film Ultra clear patterned glass, AR coated glass, TCO coated glass, BIPV glass Back sheet, EVA Cable Copper wires Other Junction Box, Connector, Frame, Sealant and tapes Thin Film Module Main Materials Sub components to make the materials Glass Ultra clear patterned glass, TCO coated glass AR coated glass Chemicals Boron, Cadmium Sulphide, Copper, Alumina, Gallium, Germanium, Indium, Molybdenum, Phosphorus oxychloride, Tellurium, Tin
  26. 26. Sunny Days Ahead 26 TCO Material Diethyl Zinc Oxides Zinc Oxide, Tin oxide Acids Hydrochloric acid, Sulphuric acid Other Junction Box, Connector, Cables, Frame, Sputtering Target Machinery and Equipment This segment covers the manufacturing of turnkey production line solutions for the thin-film and silicon module production as well as other manufacturing components such as wafers saws or analysis tools. Turn-key lines dominate most of midstream PV manufacturing capacity locally. It is expected that about 77% of manufacturing capacity would be powered by turn-key manufacturing lines which when compared to global figures (about 15%) is significantly high10 .Solarbuzz analysis reveals that across all midstream PV manufacturing, c-Si cell lines account for over 90% of manufacturing capacity. Analysis reveals that the manufacturing capacity is expected to cross 1 GW by the end of 2011. In order to keep up with this, it is expected that there would be significant purchase of turn-key manufacturing units in the short term which produce high efficiency c-Si based solar cells with higher yields. Manufacturing capacities by Type (Source: Solarbuzz) The top global machinery and turnkey solution providers for the various stages are Oerlikon Solar, Applied Materials and Ulvac Solar. There are also other players in the market, including Roth & Rau, Centrotherm, Spire Solar, Anwell Technologies and Leybold Optics. 10 Source: Solarbuzz
  27. 27. Sunny Days Ahead 27 Indian companies are yet to make serious forays into machinery and equipment manufacturing for the solar PV industry. A detailed list of machineries and equipment required for the various processes all along the solar PV value chain is provided below. In the tables below: 1) The LEFT HAND SIDE indicates the process involved 2) The RIGHT HAND SIDE indicates the equipment involved in each process Ingots Process involved Equipment involved in each process Inspecting/Testing Life time Analyser, Ingot vision inspector, Resistivity Inspector, Material Property Analyser, Polysilicon Tester Cutting & grinding Ingot Cutting Machine, Ingot Grinding Machine Crystalline ingot growing MCZ process equipment, DSS process equipment, CZ process equipment Others Ingot Transportation and Storage Cart, Granular Feeder Wafers Process involved Equipment involved in each process Cutting Cutting Equipment, Wire Saws, Band Saws, Silicon Recovery System Slurry Recovery System Cleaning Ultrasonic Wafer Cleaner Inspecting/Testing Life time Analyser, Wafer vision inspector, Resistivity Inspector, Material Property Analyser, Wafer Sorter, Wafer Counter, Wafer Tester Polishing and grinding Wafer Grinding equipment, Wafer Polishing Machine Others Wafer Handling System, Conveyor, Automatic Water Loading Machine Cassette, Water Separation Equipment Cell Process involved Equipment involved in each process Etching Laser Etching Equipment, Plasma Etching Equipment, Wet etching equipment, Texturing Equipment, Power system and gas/Liquid Flow Management System Diffusion Diffusion Furnace, Waste gas Abatement system, Doping Equipment
  28. 28. Sunny Days Ahead 28 Vaccum Pump for Diffusion, PreDiffusion Sprayer Coating/Deposition Cell Coating Equipment, Cell Sputtering, Coating Control System Cell PECVD system, Cell MOCVD, Cell CVD, Cell PVD, Cell AR coating system. Screen Printing Screen Printer Furnaces Drying Furnace, Firing Furnace Inspecting/Testing Cell sorter, Cell Tester, Cell vision inspector, Cell coating inspector Others Cell Plating system, Cell handling system, conveyor cassette Crystalline Silicon Modules Process involved Equipment involved in each process Inspecting/Testing Panel Solar Simulator, Environment Simulating Tester, Panel Cell Position, String Measurement Equipment Cleaning Glass Cleaner Tabbing/Stringing Stringer, Tabber, Soldering Equipment Laminating Laminator, Curing Furnace Cutting/Scribbing Cell Laser Scribber, Cell Laser Cutter Framing Framing Machine Others Ribbon Cutter, Lay up station, Film Cutter, Silicone Dispenser, Ribbon Flux Furnace, Panel Handling System. Thin Film Modules Process involved Equipment involved in each process Inspecting/Testing Thin Film Solar Simulator, Thin Film Optical Inspection System, Thin Film Thickness Measurer, Thin Film Time Analyser Coating/Deposition Thin Film PECVD system, Thin Film Sputtering, Thin Film CVD, Thin Film PVD, Thin Film AR coating system Cutting/Scribbing Thin Film Laser Scribber, Thin Film Mechanical Scribber Cleaning Ultrasonic Thin Film Cleaner Etching Thin Film Laser Etching Equipment, Thin Film Plasma Etching Equipment, Thin Film Wet etching equipment, Thin Film Texturing Equipment Source: ENF.cn, http://www.enf.cn/database/equipment.html The above tables provide a glimpse of the range of components, subcomponents and equipment required to make the key products along the solar PV value chain. The list
  29. 29. Sunny Days Ahead 29 provided is by no means exhaustive but is intended to make entrepreneurs acquainted with the diverse opportunities. Non-core Solar Products In addition to the core business opportunities in manufacturing available along the solar PV value chain, there are non-core opportunities for entrepreneurs and investors in this industry. Some of the prominent non-core manufacturing opportunities are given below. Solar Glasses For crystalline cells, solar glass is used for protection and performance enhancement. In the case of thin films, glass is used as a substrate. Worldwide, in 2007, 138 million tons of glass was produced. Of this, 50 million tons were flat glass, which is used in solar modules and reflectors. The flat glass market is worth €21 billion annually but, only four companies namely NSG Group, AGC, Saint-Gobain and Guardian Industries produce around 60% of the world's high quality float glass. Few companies in India currently make glasses for solar cells, and Saint Gobain is one of them; the Indian arm of the French glass giant is making serious efforts at extending its glass products to cater to the demand of solar panels sector. Recently, Gujarat Borosil launched solar grade glasses in Dec 2010. Electrical Components: Inverters, Wires and Transformers The manufacturing of inverters, charge controllers, wires and transformers is largely a commodities business. In the case of inverters, efficiencies of these devices are already relatively high, offering only limited room for technical differentiation. There are exceptions - for instance, Steca Solar of Germany provides a solution to the problem of partial shading when solar modules become as inefficient as under full shading. The global leaders in inverters are SMA Solar Technologies, Kaco and Fronius. In India, the transformer and wires are sourced locally. Inverter manufacturers like Su-kam, Luminous and Numeric are yet to fully start producing inverters for grid connected power plants; hence, the inverters for MW scale solar PV power plants are mostly being imported. Manufacturing Chemicals for Solar Industry The manufacturing of photovoltaic modules, thermal receivers and reflectors requires a number of chemicals and materials such as coatings, laminates, photovoltaic materials and solar glass. Some of these chemicals have been listed above under Cells.
  30. 30. Sunny Days Ahead 30 Production of many of these chemicals also offers opportunities to Indian companies already in the chemicals industry. Central and State Policy Analysis Central The JNNSM has set an ambitious target of 20 GW of installed solar PV capacity in India by 2022. The policy aims to support this large scale of installation by fostering the growth of a purpose built ecosystem which caters to every stage of the solar PV value chain. The following sections discuss the implication of targets on the value chain. Polysilicon To sustain 20 GW worth of installations, India would require between 14,000 and 15,000 MT per year of polysilicon manufacturing capacity from the current non- existent levels. As mentioned earlier, the main factor that determines the production output of a polysilicon plant is the availability of uninterrupted power supply which poses a huge challenge to the weak national grid with its heavy voltage fluctuations and generally poor reliability (not to mention the high percentages of peak deficit in electricity supply that the country is currently facing). The JNNSM document does not detail how this is to going to be ensured. Manufacturing plants need to be setup to produce polysilicon at large scales to remain cost competitive (as cost of each stage in the value chain is propagated downstream and reflects in the final module price). This translates to a high capital associated with the setting up of manufacturing plants. Although the JNNSM document recommends low interest rate loans and priority sector lending for manufacturing to achieve the installed capacity targets, they would still be a far cry from what the global leaders (China) offer to their manufacturing bases. The scale of investment required is unprecedented and the JNNSM scheme must ensure that this is met. Ingot/Wafer It is estimated that by the end of the decade, the requirement for ingots/wafers would be about 2000 MW. Production has to be scaled about 20 fold (from planned levels) to meet this requirement. As with polysilicon, ingots/wafers also require very large capital investment. Polysilicon cost attributes to about 50% of the production cost. The lack of local supply means that this cost of production becomes too large to sustain a profitable business. Thus incentives would
  31. 31. Sunny Days Ahead 31 have to be provided upstream to ensure growth. The incentives offered for ingot/wafer thus is a function of the incentives offered for polysilicon, which has been discussed above. Cells Currently, a lack of a local ecosystem for the subcomponents required for solar cell manufacture has stunted the growth of the sector in the country. Majority of the components such as  Gases and chemicals used during the manufacturing process  Primary manufacturing equipment etc. Have to be imported which results in a sharp increase in production costs. As with polysilicon, the lack of uninterrupted power is also a source of major concern as the manufacturing plants then would have to operate using backup power which further increases the running cost of the plant. Phase 1, Batch 2 of JNNSM stipulates that, for power plants using c-Si based modules, the cells used would have to be locally manufactured. Although this is a positive step, it is unsustainable as upstream components for cell manufacture would still have to be imported which leads to a situation where locally manufactured cells/modules would not be cost competitive with those available in the international market. With thin film modules not having any domestic content requirement, the project developers would then prefer to go for import of thin film modules thereby putting a dent on the local manufacturing aspirations. Modules About 3000 MW per year module manufacturing capacity would be required by 2012 to sustain the growth projected under JNNSM. With a current installed base of about 600 MW, this target seems to be the one that is most achievable. Also, module manufacturing is technically not a manufacturing process as such, but more of an assembly process which adds to the ease of production. As with cells, a stricter implementation of domestic content is required under JNNSM to promote the local manufacture of modules. Vertical Integration The only way a local manufacturing system would be cost competitive is to ensure that all manufacturing facilities are vertically integrated. JNNSM does not specifically promote vertical integration of companies which, under current conditions is the most critical
  32. 32. Sunny Days Ahead 32 requirement. Thus the policy would have to promote vertical integration with specific incentives for the same. State Policy As of September 2011, only 3 states have come up with a solar specific state policy – Gujarat, Karnataka and Rajasthan. Of these only the Rajasthan state policy has clauses specifically ensured to promote local manufacturing. Under the Rajasthan policy, domestic manufacture is being promoted not by mandating domestic content requirements, but by providing incentives for setting up of manufacturing plants. The incentive provided is in the form of additional capacity allocation (of 200 MW) for module manufacturers for setting up solar power plants. The key point to be noted under the Rajasthan state policy is that it aims to promote vertical integration. Incentives are provided only to those manufacturers who produce modules, cells and wafers.Although this is a step in the right direction, the time frame stipulated under the state scheme is far too short for proper implementation of a vertically integrated line.
  33. 33. Sunny Days Ahead 33 Conclusion In order for the costs of solar PV power to come down (so that it no longer remains a policy driven industry), it is critical to build a complete ecosystem for solar PV rather than just show significant growth at the tail end of the value chain (i.e. power production). This implies that there is a genuine need for the creation of hundreds of companies along the entire value chain - from polysilicon production to wafer to cell and module manufacturing, as well as production of the supporting components. However, except for cells and modules, there is hardly any manufacturing in India for the rest of the solar PV value chain. There is thus a significant gap between what is needed and what is available. The above facts have not been lost on the Indian government, which is coming up with plans and incentives to facilitate the entry of many more Indian companies into the manufacturing segment of the solar PV value chain. These efforts by the government to build a complete solar PV ecosystem in India open up attractive opportunities for investors. Compared to the PPA-bound power generation sector primarily driven by operational efficiencies, the significantly higher potential for innovation in the manufacturing sector also implies that companies could invest in building innovative and differentiated businesses with significant upsides in future. We foresee a future in which many Indian companies use their experience in the manufacturing sector to participate in the manufacturing opportunities in the exciting solar PV industry.
  34. 34. Sunny Days Ahead 34 Annexure I - List of Indian Companies in the Solar PV Module Value Chain Company Status Capacity Crystalline Silicon Polysilicon Maharishi Solar Commissioned 10 T per Year Lanco Solar Planned N/A Bhaskar Solar Planned N/A Yash Birla Group Planned N/A Wafer Maharishi Solar Commissioned 3 MW Lanco Solar Planned N/A Yash Birla Group Planned N/A Carborundum Universal Planned N/A Bhaskar Solar Planned N/A Reliance Solar Planned N/A c-Si Cells IndoSolar Commissioned 160 MW Moser Baer Commissioned 150 MW Tata BP Solar Commissioned 84 MW Websol Commissioned 60 MW Jupiter Solar Commissioned 45 MW Euro Multivision Commissioned 40 MW USL Photovoltaics Commissioned 35 MW KL Solar Commissioned 30 MW Central Electronics Commissioned 15 MW
  35. 35. Sunny Days Ahead 35 Shurjo Energy Commissioned 6 MW Bharat Electronics Commissioned 5 MW Modules Solar Semiconductor Commissioned 195 MW TATA BP Solar Commissioned 125 MW EMMVEE Solar Systems Pvt. Ltd Commissioned 114 MW Synergy Renewable Commissioned 110 MW Moser Baer Photovoltaic Ltd. Commissioned 100 MW PLG Power Commissioned 100 MW Titan Energy Systems Ltd. Commissioned 100 MW Photon Energy Systems Commissioned 50 MW HHV Commissioned 45 MW Websol Commissioned 42 MW Surana Commissioned 40 MW Andromeda Commissioned 30 MW Premier Solar Systems Pvt. Ltd. Commissioned 30 MW Reliance Industries Commissioned 30 MW Waaree Commissioned 30 MW Ajit Solar Commissioned 25 MW KotakUrjaPvt. Ltd. Commissioned 25 MW Vikram Solar Commissioned 25 MW Icomm Commissioned 20 MW Modern Solar Commissioned 18 MW Alpex Exports Commissioned 15 MW Maharishi Solar Commissioned 15 MW Microsol Power Pvt. Ltd. Commissioned 14 MW
  36. 36. Sunny Days Ahead 36 PV Power Tech Commissioned 14 MW Green Brilliance Commissioned 12 MW Shurjo Energy Commissioned 12 MW Sova Commissioned 12 MW Access Solar Commissioned 10 MW Central Electronics Ltd. Commissioned 10 MW Photonix Solar Commissioned 10 MW Sungrace Commissioned 10 MW Rajasthan Electronics and Instruments Ltd. Commissioned N/A Udaya SL Photovoltaics Pvt. Ltd. Commissioned N/A Ammini Solar Pvt. Ltd. Commissioned N/A Thin Film a-Si Thin Film Moser Baer Commissioned 30 MW HHV Solar Commissioned N/A Novergy Energy Commissioned N/A CIGS Thin Film Shurjo Energy Commissioned 6 MW
  37. 37. Sunny Days Ahead 37 Annexure II Summary of Central/State Solar Policies JNNSM Gujarat Rajasthan Karnataka Targets 20 GW by 2022 1 GW by 2012 & 3 GW (in next 5 years) 10 GW – 12 GW (in 12 years) 350 MW by 2015 -2016 Timelines Phase 1(2012-13) Phase 2(2013 -17) Phase 3(2017 -22) 300 MW (Grid Connected) by DEC 2011 Phase 1: 200 MW (PV) up to 2013 Phase 2: 400 MW (2013-2017) 126 MW by 2013 - 2014 40 MW per year till 2016 Local Content Applicable for c-Si Modules and Cells; Not applicable for TF None None; But incentives for local manufacturing None Feed-in- Tariff Reverse Bidding : Round 1 -Solar PV Rs. 10.9 - 12.75/kWh Rs. 15/kW (1st 12 years) Rs. 5/kWh (13th to 25th year) Decided through Reverse Bidding Up to 200 MW. Reverse Bidding with base price @ Rs. 14.50 /kWh (max) Current Status Phase 1 : 150 MW PV allotted; 300 MW by end of 2011 PPAs signed for about 1200 MW Allotment in progress Allotment in progress
  38. 38. Sunny Days Ahead 38 Annexure III SEMI Standards The SEMI International Standards Program brings together industry experts to exchange ideas and develop globally accepted technical standards for manufacturing. SEMI provides a forum for the collaboration essential to move new and existing markets forward efficiently and profitably. The Economic Benefits of Standardization • US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Study: – Calibration, Standard Test Methods, and Software Standards resulted in • $9.6 billion in benefits between 1996 and 2011 • Association Française de Normalisation (AFNOR) Study: – Over 70% of companies participating in standardization reported that it enabled them to anticipate future market requirements • German Industry Study (DIN): – Standards contribute more to economic growth than patents and licenses • UK Department of Trade and Industry: – Standards contribute £2.5 billion annually to economic growth in the UK The Need for PV Standards The solar PV industry needs to look at meaningful cost reduction through a global, robust and well-organized supply chain. The current learning curve for the industry is not as steep as other electronic industries, especially semiconductors which use many of the same processes, materials, and suppliers as PV. A faster learning curve for the solar PV industry could be accomplished through better industry collaboration, including industry standards and technology roadmaps. The progress made by semiconductors in cost reduction is one of the technological marvels of our time. Since 1975, the cost of one transistor has been reduced by a factor of about 4,000,000. This achievement has often been ascribed to Moore’s Law, the prediction that the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit would double approximately every two years. Many observers see Moore’s Law as a useful guide to cost reduction in the PV industry. While thin film and c-Si cells do not benefit from lithography-enabled feature-size reductions that comprise much of cost reductions in semiconductors, much of Moore’s Law is directly related to productivity, yield, and other cost
  39. 39. Sunny Days Ahead 39 reductions not related to feature-size reductions. Since PV manufacturing is based upon many of the same processes and materials as IC and display manufacturing, there remain important learnings from these industries that can be applied to solar cells and modules. • The PV industry currently has few standards to support the manufacturing process and help achieve cost reduction and process efficiency goals • The PV market, already large, is growing rapidly, with many new companies entering the manufacturing supply chain • Different applications and processes lead to diverse manufacturing challenges – this is where industry standards can play a critical role by: – Bringing the global supplier and customer communities together – Collectively reducing the number of options in a given process – Agreeing on common parameters and terminology Why SEMI? • Similarity between semiconductor, FPD and PV manufacturing – many SEMI Standards are immediately applicable • Well-established (35+years), transparent process for developing international consensus manufacturing Standards • Global infrastructure serving major PV manufacturing regions & over 500 volunteer experts working in SEMI PV Standards Activities, led by PV industry veterans Photovoltaic Standards at SEMI Overview For over 35 years, the SEMI International Standards Program has been well known for developing global consensus standards for the semiconductor industry. Less well-known, but now increasing in visibility, is the long SEMI history of developing PV Standards, leveraging the many similarities that photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing has to that of the semiconductor and FPD industries. The first SEMI Photovoltaic Standard, M6, Specification for Silicon Wafers for Use as Photovoltaic Solar Cells, was published in 1981, now replaced by SEMI PV22. With a global infrastructure serving major PV manufacturing regions, PV Standardization activity at SEMI is now taking center stage.
  40. 40. Sunny Days Ahead 40 Photovoltaic Standards Committee The first SEMI Standards Committee specifically dedicated to photovoltaics was formed in 2007, and rapidly developed SEMI PV1, a test method for solar-grade silicon feedstock, and SEMI PV2, guide for PV equipment communication interfaces. There are now over 30 PV Standardization activities underway at SEMI, both in crystalline silicon and thin film cell technologies, and new PV Automation and PV Materials Committees have recently been formed to specifically address standardization topics related to hardware and software automation, materials and test methods. Committees are now active in Europe, Japan, North America, and Taiwan, and a Working Group is forming in China. Over 500 technical experts from leading companies in all segments of the photovoltaic supply chain are currently involved in PV Standards efforts at SEMI. Join them in this important effort. Registration is free. Visit www.semi.org/standardsmembership. Industry Participation is Critical Momentum is building for the development and widespread adoption of standards in the solar photovoltaic manufacturing industry. The SEMI Standards Program allows companies to collaborate in a pre-competitive environment to define the best path to encourage technical innovation and market growth. Companies that actively participate in the development process stay current with industry technology trends, and more importantly, these companies shape the development of the industry. Published SEMI PV Standards SEMI PV1 - Test Method for MeasuringTrace Elements in Silicon Feedstock for Silicon Solar Cells by High- Mass Resolution Glow Discharge Mass Spectrometry • SEMI PV2 - Guide for PV Equipment Communication Interfaces (PVECI) • SEMI PV3 - Guide for High Purity Water Used in Photovoltaic Cell Processing • SEMI PV4 - Specification for Range of 5th Generation Substrate Sizes for Thin Film Photovoltaic Applications • SEMI PV5 - Guide for Oxygen (O2), Bulk, Used In Photovoltaic Applications • SEMI PV6 - Guide for Argon (Ar), Bulk, Used In Photovoltaic Applications • SEMI PV7 - Guide for Hydrogen (H2), Bulk, Used In Photovoltaic Applications • SEMI PV8 - Guide for Nitrogen (N2), Bulk, Used In Photovoltaic Applications • SEMI PV9 -Test Method For Excess Charge Carrier Decay In PV Silicon Materials By Non-Contact Measurements Of Microwave Reflectance After A Short Illumination Pulse
  41. 41. Sunny Days Ahead 41 • SEMI PV10 - Test Method For Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) Of Silicon • SEMI PV11- Specifications for Hydrofluoric Acid, Used In Photovoltaic Applications • SEMI PV12 - Specifications for Phosphoric Acid, Used In Photovoltaic Applications • SEMI PV13 - Test Method for Contactless Excess-Charge-Carrier Recombination Lifetime Measurement in Silicon Wafers, Ingots, and Bricks Using an Eddy-Current Sensor • SEMI PV14 - Guide For Phosphorus Oxychloride, Used In Photovoltaic Applications • SEMI PV15 - Test Method for Measuring BRDF Metrics to Monitor the Surface Roughness and Texture of PV Materials • SEMI PV16 - Specifications for Nitric Acid, Used In Photovoltaic Applications • SEMI PV17 - Specification for Virgin Silicon Feedstock Materials for Photovoltaic Applications • SEMI PV18 - Guide for Specifying a Photovoltaic Connector Ribbon • SEMI PV19 - Guide for Testing Photovoltaic Connector Ribbon Characteristics • SEMI PV20 - Specifications for Hydrochloric Acid Used In Photovoltaic Applications • SEMI PV21 - Guide for Silane (SiH4), Used In Photovoltaic Applications • SEMI PV22 - Specification for Silicon Wafers for Used in Photovoltaic Solar Cells • SEMI PV23 - Test Method for Mechanical Vibration of Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic (PV) Modules in Shipping Environment • SEMI PV24 - Guide for Ammonia (NH3) In Cylinders, Used In Photovoltaic Applications • SEMI PV25 - Test Method for Simultaneously Measuring Oxygen, Carbon, Boron and Phosphorus in Solar Silicon Wafers and Feedstock by Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry • SEMI PV26 - Specifications for Hydrogen Selenide (H2Se), Used In Photovoltaic Applications • SEMI PV27 - Specifications for Ammonium Hydroxide (NH4OH), Used In Photovoltaic Applications Other SEMI Standards Applicable for PV Manufacturing SEMI E10 - Specification for Definition and Measurement of Equipment Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) • SEMI F47 - Specification for Semiconductor Processing Equipment Voltage Sag Immunity • SEMI M44 - Guide to Conversion Factors for Interstitial Oxygen in Silicon • SEMI MF1727 - Practice for Detection of Oxidation Induced Defects in Polished Silicon Wafer
  42. 42. Sunny Days Ahead 42 Current PV Standards Activities • Analytical test methods • Cell and module vibration test method • Cell appearance and defect detection • Cell specification template •Equipment to equipment communication • Minority carrier lifetime • Process chemicals and gases PV Standards Developing Organizations Application of Standards in the PV Industry To learn more, please visit www.pvgroup.org/standards or www.semi.org/standards • PV wafer defect metrology • PV wafer and cell transport carriers • PV wafer mark and ID • Single substrate tracking • Solar grade silicon feedstock • Thin film substrate dimensions • Transparent conductive oxide
  43. 43. Sunny Days Ahead 43 EAI - Assisting Your Company for Attractive Manufacturing Opportunities in Solar PV EAI offers intelligence on the overall manufacturing opportunities in  Solar PV upstream – Polysilicon, Ingots and Wafers  Solar PV downstream – Cells and Modules  Thin Film manufacturing  Components – sub-components for cells and modules, chemicals and other consumables  Balance of systems – inverters, monitoring systems  Equipment and machineries – Furnaces, wafer cutting tools, cell production line, module production line Identifying the most attractive opportunities for your company  Understanding your company’s aspirations in the context of solar energy sector  Understanding your company’s manufacturing competencies  Evaluating the fit between your aspirations + competencies and the available opportunities  Clearly identifying the attractive opportunities appropriate for your company Feasibility study for shortlisted opportunities  Demand and supply analysis  Costs and returns estimates  Strategic dimensions – extent of competition, buyer and supplier power, dominant designs and industry concentration, degree of innovation, barriers to entry  Possibilities of JVs and technology partnerships  Identification of key success factors  Key characteristics of each opportunity
  44. 44. Sunny Days Ahead 44 Strengths  Dedicated Focus on Renewables - We work only in renewable energy and nothing else.  Wide Expert Network - We work with over 100 technical and business experts across all primary renewable energy sources.  Financial Assistance - We work with over 25 different PE, VC firms and banks providing our client easy access to finance. Clients EAI's consulting team has been assisting several organizations in diverse renewable energy domains. Some of our esteemed clients include:  PepsiCo  Reliance Industries  World Bank  Sterlite Technologies  Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation  iPLON GmbH  Minda Group  GE  Bhavik Energy  Agarwal Group Prominent companies that have benefitted from our research and reports:  Accenture  AT Kearney  Shell  Lafarge  Exxon Mobil  Boston Consulting Group  Schneider Electric  Bosch  GE  Danfoss Solar  IFC  Siemens  Sharp  Gehrlicher Solar AG  Reliance Solar  Emergent Ventures  Videocon  Q Cells  Emerson Network Power  Indian Railways
  45. 45. Sunny Days Ahead 45 EAI’s Replacing Diesel with Solar Looking to save on diesel by moving to captive solar power? EAI’s Replacing Diesel with Solar report is a one-stop resource for all the information you will need to assess, implement, and profit from substituting diesel with solar. Within this report you will find • Captive solar PV technology and components • Constraints in replacing diesel with solar • Government incentives and regulations • Inputs on capital and operational costs and financial scenario analysis • Case studies for those businesses that already use solar for captive power • Financing options • Vendors, component suppliers, and system integrators • List of solar PV captive power plant systems all over India Please click here for detailed contents, critical questions answered, and a free preview of the report.
  46. 46. Sunny Days Ahead 46
  47. 47. Sunny Days Ahead 47 About SEMI and PV Group SEMI is the global industry association serving the manufacturing supply chains for the micro- electronic, display and photovoltaic industries. PV Group represents SEMI member companies involved in the solar energy manufacturing supply chain. Members provide the essential equipment, materials and services necessary to produce clean, renewable energy from photovoltaic technologies. The PV Group mission is to advance industry growth, support continuous efficiency improvements and promote sustainable business practices through international standards development, events, public policy advocacy, EHS support, market intelligence, and other services SEMI India, the Indian arm of SEMI, was established in late 2008 to promote the growth and development of the solar/PV and adjacent industries Vision SEMI promotes the development of the global semiconductor, display, MEMS, Photovoltaic and related industries and positively influences the growth and prosperity of its members. SEMI advances the mutual business interests of its membership and promotes fair competition in an open global marketplace Mission SEMI will provide enlightened industry stewardship and effectively engage the imagination, creative energy and commitment of our members and employees to advance the welfare of the global semiconductor, display, MEMS, Photovoltaic and related industries SEMI will: • Create recognized platforms for industry networking and collaboration • Promote accurate and efficient communication and information exchange • Support initiatives that positively influence our global industry and environment • Foster a global continuous process improvement culture that drives strategic decision making and speed of execution
  48. 48. Sunny Days Ahead 48 About SOLARCON India SOLARCON India is the premier annual solar technology and business event organized by SEMI PV Group, in the region, and combines an International class Industry exposition with conferences and technical workshops/short courses. SOLARCON India is part of the global calendar of SEMI events, and debuted at the Hyderabad International Convention Centre (HICC) in 2009 and establishing itself as the platform of choice to showcase products, solutions and capabilities, meet and network with buyers, suppliers, members of the solar community and to understand the latest technology trends and opportunities in the solar business. It is supported by the SEMI India PV Advisory Committee comprising leading executives from across many segments of the solar industry in India. SOLARCON India shows have been supported by the Ministry of New & Renewable Energy, IREDA, agencies of the Government of Andhra Pradesh and have attracted leading global solar and photovoltaics experts as speakers. November 9-11, HICC, Hyderabad Supported by Ministry of New & Renewable Energy Government of India Trade Fair Certification by

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