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Bruce Schubert, EmxsysWILDFIREMANAGEMENT TOOLWhat It Can Do & How to Make It Do MoreNASA World Wind Europa ChallengeSeptem...
Bruce Schubert• Software Architect, Designer, Developer   • Emxsys Open Source Developer     • Emergency Management Geomat...
http://emxsys.comWildfire Management Tool The Art of the  Campbell  Prediction   System The Science of BEHAVE
Doug Campbell’s Wildland Fire Predictionand Communication System (CPS)Doug Campbell
Rothermel’s Fire Spread Model    Richard C. Rothermel
WMT: A Simplified Display of Complex Data        Inputs   Location   Outputs
Vision Statement• For wildland firefighters• Who need tactical decision support tools• The Wildfire Management Tool (WMT)•...
Fire Behavior 101Fire behavior is the manner in which a fire reacts to theinfluences of:  • Fuel  • Weather  • Topography
Basic Fire Behavior Nomenclature               HEAD                       Spot fire  LEFT  FLANKOrigin         RIGHT      ...
Slope and Aspect Derived from Terrain
Fuel Model Data from Web Map Servers
Determine Fire Behavior at Any LocationDirection of Maximum Spread and Flame Length
Show Fire Behavior in Familiar TermsHaul Chart
Firefighters Can Predict Fire BehaviorFire Behavior is greater when force vectors are aligned.
Fire Behavior
Campbell Prediction SystemLearn from the Past—Predict the FutureWhat Does the Fire Tell You?• Alignment of Forces Concept ...
Case Study: South Canyon
Case Study: Dillon
How to Make It Do More
The Problem With Models1. The model is inaccurate.    Solving one problem2. The model is too complex.   exacerbates the ot...
Develop A Model Based on Ground TruthsLearn from the Past—Predict the Future• Build a Fire Behavior Observation Database  ...
Add a Wind Field Model• Incorporate terrain effects into the surface winds• Incorporate a diurnal slope flow model• Need f...
Determine Trigger PointsA trigger point is a place on the terrain where a change inthe alignment of forces will change the...
Show Thresholds of Control• Drape a Threshold Of Control color overlay on the terrain.1.   LOW 0-1’ Fire will burn and wil...
Simulate Short Term Fire Behavior• Create a 3D Fire Simulation display  • Not a fire progression model  • Render Head, Fla...
Software Architecture             CPS Plugin                                           WorldWind           Emxsys APIs    ...
Software Design Fundementals Pick Two:         Limited           Use                   World                   Wind       ...
Who Uses It?• United States Forest Service• CALFIRE• Catalonia GRAF
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Wildfire Management Tool WWEC - 20120919

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Wildfire Management Tool:
What It Can Do & How to Make It Do More

NASA World Wind Europa Challenge
September 19-22, 2012, Como Italy

Bruce Schubert

Published in: Technology
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Wildfire Management Tool WWEC - 20120919

  1. 1. Bruce Schubert, EmxsysWILDFIREMANAGEMENT TOOLWhat It Can Do & How to Make It Do MoreNASA World Wind Europa ChallengeSeptember 19-22, 2012, Como Italy
  2. 2. Bruce Schubert• Software Architect, Designer, Developer • Emxsys Open Source Developer • Emergency Management Geomatics • Wildfire Management Tool • AeroComputers Mission Management System • Software Architect and Developer • UltiChart Mission Management System for Police and Fire Helicopters • Cartographer • Nationwide Street Level Maps • Georeferenced Video Synchronized with Maps • Fire Mapping with Aircraft and EO/IR Sensors • Ventura County Fire Department • Software Development Manager • ICS • Situation Unit Leader • Field Observer• Volunteer • Firefighter/Battalion Chief • Search, Rescue and First Aid • CPR Instructor • Sound Technician (FOH and Recording)
  3. 3. http://emxsys.comWildfire Management Tool The Art of the Campbell Prediction System The Science of BEHAVE
  4. 4. Doug Campbell’s Wildland Fire Predictionand Communication System (CPS)Doug Campbell
  5. 5. Rothermel’s Fire Spread Model Richard C. Rothermel
  6. 6. WMT: A Simplified Display of Complex Data Inputs Location Outputs
  7. 7. Vision Statement• For wildland firefighters• Who need tactical decision support tools• The Wildfire Management Tool (WMT)• Is a decision support system• That predicts the potential fire behavior• Unlike BehavePlus and FARSITE• This product uses on-scene fire behavior observations
  8. 8. Fire Behavior 101Fire behavior is the manner in which a fire reacts to theinfluences of: • Fuel • Weather • Topography
  9. 9. Basic Fire Behavior Nomenclature HEAD Spot fire LEFT FLANKOrigin RIGHT FLANKREAR or HEAL
  10. 10. Slope and Aspect Derived from Terrain
  11. 11. Fuel Model Data from Web Map Servers
  12. 12. Determine Fire Behavior at Any LocationDirection of Maximum Spread and Flame Length
  13. 13. Show Fire Behavior in Familiar TermsHaul Chart
  14. 14. Firefighters Can Predict Fire BehaviorFire Behavior is greater when force vectors are aligned.
  15. 15. Fire Behavior
  16. 16. Campbell Prediction SystemLearn from the Past—Predict the FutureWhat Does the Fire Tell You?• Alignment of Forces Concept • In-alignment tracks• Trigger Points • Geographic/Temporal• Fuel Flammability Curves• Replications
  17. 17. Case Study: South Canyon
  18. 18. Case Study: Dillon
  19. 19. How to Make It Do More
  20. 20. The Problem With Models1. The model is inaccurate. Solving one problem2. The model is too complex. exacerbates the other. Drawing Hands, M.C Escher
  21. 21. Develop A Model Based on Ground TruthsLearn from the Past—Predict the Future• Build a Fire Behavior Observation Database • Local • Regional • International• Data collected by Field Observers via Georeferenced Photos• Photos must display horizontal and vertical references• Observations codified by Fire Behavior Analysts• Photo queries viewed by Incident Commanders
  22. 22. Add a Wind Field Model• Incorporate terrain effects into the surface winds• Incorporate a diurnal slope flow model• Need for modeling lee winds
  23. 23. Determine Trigger PointsA trigger point is a place on the terrain where a change inthe alignment of forces will change the fire behavior,creating either an opportunity for suppression or a dangerto firefighters.• Analyze fire behavior predictions over the spatial and temporal domains to determine when and where fire behavior may change.• Render trigger points on the terrain viewer and on a timeline.
  24. 24. Show Thresholds of Control• Drape a Threshold Of Control color overlay on the terrain.1. LOW 0-1’ Fire will burn and will spread however it presents very little resistance to control and direct attack with firefighters is possible2. MODERATE 1-3’ Fire spreads rapidly presenting moderate resistance to control but can be countered with direct attack by firefighters3. ACTIVE 3-7’ Fire spreads very rapidly presenting substantial resistance to control. Direct attack with firefighters must be supplemented with equipment and/or air support.4. VERY ACTIVE 7-15’ Fire spreads very rapidly presenting extreme resistance to control. Indirect attack may be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area becomes a concern.5. EXTREME >15’ Fire spreads very rapidly presenting extreme resistance to control. Any form of attack will probably not be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area is of critical concern.
  25. 25. Simulate Short Term Fire Behavior• Create a 3D Fire Simulation display • Not a fire progression model • Render Head, Flanking and Backing fire behavior
  26. 26. Software Architecture CPS Plugin WorldWind Emxsys APIs NetBeans Module Libs: VisAD, NetBeans Platform WorldWind SDK JFreeChart
  27. 27. Software Design Fundementals Pick Two: Limited Use World Wind Write It Yourself
  28. 28. Who Uses It?• United States Forest Service• CALFIRE• Catalonia GRAF

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