Exploring the Next Wave of 10GbE with Crehan Research

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The Next Wave of 10GbE webcast with Crehan Research was held on 10/5 and focused on current and future 10GbE adapter and switch market drivers and adoption trends, and the effects of the introduction of 10GBASE-T products on the overall 10GbE market.

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Exploring the Next Wave of 10GbE with Crehan Research

  1. 1. Explore the Next Wave of 10GbE<br />
  2. 2. Webcast House Keeping<br />All attendees will be on mute during the presentation<br />Please submit your questions via the text/chat feature<br />We will do all Q&A at the end of the presentation<br />
  3. 3. Agenda<br />Emulex - Next Steps in Networking<br />Crehan Research - 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10GbE) Market Update<br />Emulex – The Maturing Converged Market Place<br />Q&A with Seamus Crehan<br />
  4. 4. Shaun Walsh<br />VP Marketing, Emulex<br />Next Steps in Networking<br />
  5. 5. Next Steps in Network Convergence<br />StorageUniverse <br />VirtualNetworking<br />CloudConnectivity<br />Multi-Fabric<br />o<br /><ul><li>RoCEE Low Latency
  6. 6. UnifiedMulti-Fabric I/O
  7. 7. 10GBASE-T, 16GFC
  8. 8. 7ZB by 2013
  9. 9. Big Data (Hadoop)
  10. 10. SSDs drive performance
  11. 11. Universal Multi-Channel
  12. 12. SR-IOV, VXLAN, GRE
  13. 13. Virtual Networking
  14. 14. Cloud LOM Technology
  15. 15. I/O Isolation
  16. 16. Connect I/O Engine</li></li></ul><li>Drivers of 10GbE and Network Convergence<br />Competitive<br />Advantage<br />Lower Cost<br />Gb and IOPS<br />Virtual Machine<br />Density<br />Increased Use of Virtual Resources for Real Work Loads!<br />
  17. 17. Waves of 10GbE Adoption<br />Sources: <br />Crehan Research Server-class Adapter and LOM Report<br />ESG Deployment Paper 2010<br />IDC WW External Storage Report 2010<br />IT Brand Pulse 10GbE Survey April 2010<br />FCoE Storage 25% of I/O<br />10GbE LOM Everywhere<br />Wave 3<br />Cloud Container Servers for Web Giants and Telcos<br />1-2 Socket Server<br />with NICs and Modular LOMs<br />Wave 2<br />10GbE Adoption Waves<br />2-4 Socket X86 and Unix Rack Servers Drive 10Gb with Modular LOMs and UCNAs<br />10Gb NAS and iSCSI Drive IP SAN Storage for Unstructured Data<br />Wave 1<br />10Gb LOM and Adapters for Blade Servers<br />50% of IT Managers Cite Virtualization as the Driver of 10GbE in Blades<br />2010<br />2011<br />2013<br />Beyond<br />2012<br />
  18. 18. 10GbE Market Update<br />Seamus Crehan<br />Founder, Crehan Research, Inc<br />Email: Seamus@CrehanResearch.com<br />Phone: (650) 273-8400<br />CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission<br />
  19. 19. 10GbE Server Adapter & LOM Port Shipments<br />10GbE Server Adapter/LOM Shipments<br /> Ports growing ~ 20% Q/Q<br /> 1H11 port shipments of ~2.3 M<br /> Close to doubling Y/Y<br /> Very strong traction without:<br />Romley/Sandy Bridge upgrade<br /> 10GBASE-T<br /> Strong macro economy<br />Ports in Millions<br />CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission<br />
  20. 20. Current Market Adoption & Drivers<br />Blade servers<br />Virtualization<br /> Storage network attach<br />Cloud & large production data centers<br /> Massive expansion of connected devices<br /> High-density server access switches<br /> Market close to doubling Y/Y<br />10<br />CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission<br />
  21. 21. Future Market Drivers<br />Continuation of current market drivers <br />Romley/Sandy Bridge <br /> Convergence<br /> Storage – FCoE, iSCSI<br /> HPC – Low latency<br /> “Big Data”<br /> 10GBASE-T<br />11<br />Server Adapter/LOM Shipments<br />Ports in Millions<br />CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission<br />
  22. 22. 10GBASE-T Adapter/LOM Adoption<br />Ramp starting in 2012<br />FlexLOM/daughter card<br /> Native LOM<br /> Stand-up cards <br /> Numerous high-density/high-volume server access switches<br />Large installed base of Cat 6/6a data center cabling<br />12<br />10GbE Port Interface Shipments<br />Ports in Millions<br />CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission<br />
  23. 23. 10GbE Adapter/LOM Pricing Trends<br />Steep ASP declines<br /> Multiport solutions<br /> Increased copper mix <br /> Mezzanine card and LOM mix<br />Significant 10GbE bandwidth discount on all major form-factors<br />Cable and slot savings<br />13<br />Server Adapter/LOM Bandwidth Pricing<br />$ ASP per Gigabit of Bandwidth<br />CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission<br />
  24. 24. Server Access Switches <br />Ports growing ~ 20% Q/Q<br />Quarterly run-rate >1M ports<br />Recent traction stronger in Fixed/T-o-R<br /> High density 10GBASE-T switches from numerous vendors<br />ASP per port halved since 2008<br />14<br />Server Adapter/LOM Bandwidth Pricing<br />Port Shipments in Millions (Bars)<br />CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission<br />
  25. 25. 10GBASE-T Data Center Switch Adoption<br />High-density fixed/top-of-rack switches<br />High-density chassis/modular end-of-row line cards<br />10GBASE-T close to half of data center switch ports by end of 2015<br />More on-board LOM and pre-installed cabling reduces customers variable cost of 10GBASE-T adoption<br />15<br />10GBASE-T Data Center Switch Ports<br />% of Total Datacenter Switch Port Mix<br />CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission<br />
  26. 26. BASE-T Factors for Speed Upgrade<br /> Power<br /> Cabling installed base<br /> LOM for rack servers<br /> Server-access switches<br /> Bandwidth discount<br />16<br />CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission<br />
  27. 27. 10GbE Pricing TrendsSwitch + Server Connection<br />Significant bandwidth discount for 10GbE connection versus 1GbE connection<br /> Bandwidth discount continues to increase<br /> ~40% in 2008<br /> ~60% in 2011<br /> ~70% in 2012<br /> Network hardware only – also incremental cable savings <br />17<br />Switch + Server Pricing Trends<br />$ ASP per Port (Switch + Server)<br />CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission<br />
  28. 28. Summary <br />10GbE server-class adapter & LOM shipments have reached significant volumes already.<br />Traffic/device growth, virtualization, convergence, cloud and bandwidth cost savings have been, and will remain key drivers.<br />Impending key drivers such as Romley/Sandy Bridge,10GBASE-T, more attractive pricing and emerging applications will propel next adoption stage. <br />Expect 10GBASE-T to become majority of server-class adapter/LOM and data center switch connections.<br />18<br />CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission<br />
  29. 29. The Maturing Converged Market Place <br />19<br />
  30. 30. Evolution of 10GbE Network Convergence<br />HP FlexFabric<br />IBM Virtual Fabric<br />Cisco UCS<br />Dell NPAR<br />10GbE LOM<br />10GbE CNAs<br />HW iSCSI/FCoE<br /> x86 and Unix<br />Blade and Rack<br />HP iSCSI/FCoE<br />NetApp iSCSI/FCoE<br />EMC iSCSI/FCoE<br />DELL iSCSI/DCB<br />IBM iSCSI/FCoE<br />VMware vNICs<br />Virtual Switch<br />ESX HW iSCSI<br />ESX FCoE<br />VM vCenter<br />Blade Switches<br />Blade PTMs<br />TOR Switches<br />Core Directors<br />Converged Fabric-based Computing<br />Converged Switching<br />Convergence for Server<br />Virtualization<br />Converged Adapters & LOMs<br />Converged Storage<br />
  31. 31. Wrap Up<br />Many Phase to Market Transitions and Implementation<br />10GBASE-T will drive 10GbE Cost in Racks<br />Network Convergence is Coming; Best to be Ready<br />Management of Domains Will be the Most Challenging<br />10GBASE-T is Like Hanging Out with an Old Friend<br />
  32. 32. THANK YOU<br />For more information, please contact Shaun Walsh<br />949.922.7472 shaun.walsh@emulex.com<br />

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