Planificació d’escenaris de futur

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Planificació d’escenaris de futur

  1. 1. Scenario Planning Barcelona, 16 March 2011 Carsten Beck, CIFS
  2. 2. CIFS• Founded in 1970 by Thorkil Kristensen• Member-based non-profit• Private, neutral and independent• Cross-disciplinary think-tank• (economists, political scientists, ethnologists, communication experts, sociologists, astrophysicists and philosophers)• About 30 employees• International Future Clubs www.cifs.dk
  3. 3. CIFS
  4. 4. Working with the future & change
  5. 5. Why do companies have to focus on the future?
  6. 6. Why cant we ask consumers about the future?”If I asked peoplewhat they wanted, Iwould have made a faster horse” Henry Ford
  7. 7. Why you need scenarios? 3D Color TV Slide-back Roof Personal Helicopter & MovingStairway House-control Wall-Panel Roof Landing Area PanelGlass Walls Dust-free Menu Selector & Giant-size Ultrasonic Electrical Phono-vision Floors Microwave Stove Fruit Laundry Heat Unit Receiver
  8. 8. Why is there always more to do? "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.
  9. 9. Why do great companies fail?”I am not an economist, but I do believe that we are growing” President George W. Bush July 2008
  10. 10. Working with the future Forecasts Scenarios Vision• Likely futures • Possible, plausible • Desired futures• Based on futuresrelationships • Based on uncertainty •Value-based• Hide risks • Illustrate risks• Quantitative • Qualitative and • Hidden risks• Need for decisions quantitative • Qualitative• Used daily • Need to know what • Energizing• Strong in the short- needs to be decidedterm and low upon • Used dailyuncertainty • Used occasionally • Used as a basis for • Strong in the voluntary change medium- to long-term perspective
  11. 11. Context and driving forces Political factors Economic factors Shareholders Suppliers Society and values Customers Culture & values Contextual environment Transactional environment Organization Structure Competitors Competencies Technological Offerings factors Management Regulation Markets Funding Environmental factors Legal factors
  12. 12. The last 10 years…• Dot-com crisis• 9/11• Internet penetration and social media in Africa• Revolution in North Africa• EU countries on the brink of bankruptcy• Climate crisis• Culture wars and the Muhammad Cartoon Crisis• Women as a majority in universities• Mobile phones in Africa• China as a superpower• Financial crisis• The demand for Africas raw materials
  13. 13. Wild card:Foreign land acquisitions
  14. 14. Process: step-by-step0. Problem formulation1. Megatrends and their consequences2. Identification and selection of uncertainties3. Development of broad scenarios based on the selection4. Organizational profiling in each field5. Scenario-driven strategy
  15. 15. Process: step-by-step0. Problem formulation: Global middle class1. Megatrends and their consequences2. Identification and selection of uncertainties3. Development of broad scenarios based on the selection4. Organizational profiling in each field5. Scenario-driven strategy
  16. 16. MegatrendsDriving forces for change
  17. 17. Megatrends •10-30 year horizon •Difficult in Africa •You cannot choose not to be influenced •Influences all of society •But local varieties: religion in Nigeria •Influences all people •Look at patterns in consumption: •Food, phone, bike, tv etc •Strongly influences values and norms •The uncertainties remain: exactly how and how quickly
  18. 18. 15 Megatrends1. Knowledge2. Technological development3. Acceleration4. Complexity5. Globalisation6. Commercialisation7. Economic growth8. Democratisation9. Materialization/ experience economy10. Individualization11. Network economy12. Focus on health13. Climate14. Demographics15. Urbanization
  19. 19. World population is growing….. -1.47% CIS EU-27 1.94% Japan China United States 8.67% -7.60% 17.58% World 9bn 7bn 21.66% MENA India 38.95% 23.95% Asia ex CIJ 26.59% LATAM SSA 55.05% 18.45% 19.96% ROW 2030 500mn 2009 800mn % increase 1.3bn 1.5bn
  20. 20. ….and moving to cities….. EU US 72.6% 66.8% 78.4% China Japan 82.3% 73.0% 47.0% 87.0% 60.4% MENA 61.9% 67.5% India 30.0% Sub Saharan Africa 39.7% 37.3% LATAM 79.6% 47.9% 84.9% 2030 100mn 2010 500mn 1bn % % Urban
  21. 21. Middle class now and in 2030 Europe North America Middle East Asia Pacific and North Africa Sub Saharan Africa Central and South America 100mn 2030 500mn 2009 1bn
  22. 22. Process: step-by-step0. Problem formulation1. Megatrends and their consequences2. Identification and selection of uncertainties3. Development of broad scenarios based on the selection4. Organizational profiling in each field5. Scenario-driven strategy
  23. 23. ? Uncertainties ? Mantra:? ”Big uncertainties – big consequences” consequences”
  24. 24. Identification of uncertainties Either Or A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T
  25. 25. Choose the most important uncertainties Either Or A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T
  26. 26. Building broad scenarios MG H N
  27. 27. UncertaintiesAfrica benefits from globalisation Africa is left behindMo Ibrahim ++ Mo Ibrahim --Market RegulationConvergence PolarizationCentralization DecentralizationUrbanisation works for all Villages left behindAfrica like Asia (consumption pattern) A special path for Africa (consumption pattern)More focus on climate/env Less focus on climate/env
  28. 28. UncertantiesAfrica benefits from globalisation Africa is left behindMo Ibrahim ++ Mo Ibrahim --Market RegulationConvergence PolarizationCentralization DecentralizationUrbanisation works for all Villages left behindAfrica like Asia (consumption pattern) A special path for Africa (consumption pattern)More focus on climate/env Less focus on climate/env
  29. 29. • Young urban asiatic consumers• Slimmer fit• Less US more global
  30. 30. ScenariosRealistic stories about the futureScenarios are normally:• NOT predictions• Unlike the present• Believable and possible• Argumentable• Profiled• Internally consistent
  31. 31. External environment scenarios Feelings scenario A scenario BFast digitalisation Slow digitalisation scenario C scenario D Rationality
  32. 32. Scenarios can be used to…• Identify challenges in the environment – Threats and opportunities – Help to prioritise and make decisions• Test, develop and evaluate strategy – and innovate – Business development, HR-development, product development, personal development, branding, etc.• Prepare research and scan the environment – as guidelines• Establish a common platform for learning, development, communications and a common language
  33. 33. Process: step-by-step0. Problem formulation1. Megatrends and their consequences2. Identification and selection of uncertainties3. Development of broad scenarios based on the selection4. Organizational profiling in each field5. Scenario-driven strategy
  34. 34. PEST analysis M G H N
  35. 35. Process: step-by-step0. Problem formulation1. Megatrends and their consequences2. Identification and selection of uncertainties3. Development of broad scenarios based on the selection4. Organizational profiling in each field5. Scenario-driven strategy

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