Emma 3/31/11 Peru Elections 2011 Running the race to presidency
Five presidential candidates scramble to obtain support for the upcoming elections; voting will take place on April 10 Int...
Recent polls indicate that leftist Nationalist Ollanta Humala is currently ahead in popularity by a slight margin of  ~1% ...
Pre-electoral polls provide insight into current voter sentiment Pre-electoral polls Development Change Justice Democracy ...
But past  voting trends suggest high electoral volatility  Voter Sentiment
Some even speculate that elections have become a competition of appearances rather than a constructive forum for differing...
At this point, uncertainty still hangs heavy over the Peruvian presidential elections, though some key indicators may turn...
Appendix Introduction : Presidential Candidates <ul><li>Ollanta Hamala  – the only leftist candidate; recently “toned down...
Appendix Pre-election poll from 8/25-28 of 600 people in Lima & Metro area : Indicates strong support for Luis Castaneda T...
Appendix Ollanta Humala : Political agenda On his political stance: “I’m neither left nor right. If you want to place me o...
Appendix Voter Sentiment:  Extremely volatile and still an unsolved mystery A 2006 study by the University of Lima found t...
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Peru elections 2011: running the race to presidency

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Summary and outlook for the 2011 Peruvian presidential elections.

(Presented on 3/31/2011 at Fuh Hwa Securities Investment Trust, Taipei, Taiwan)

Published in: News & Politics
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Peru elections 2011: running the race to presidency

  1. 1. Emma 3/31/11 Peru Elections 2011 Running the race to presidency
  2. 2. Five presidential candidates scramble to obtain support for the upcoming elections; voting will take place on April 10 Introduction 1 2 3 4 5
  3. 3. Recent polls indicate that leftist Nationalist Ollanta Humala is currently ahead in popularity by a slight margin of ~1% Ollanta Humala Disclaimer : This is a makeshift Facebook account, created solely for educational purposes. Current Venezuelan president and friend of Humala’s
  4. 4. Pre-electoral polls provide insight into current voter sentiment Pre-electoral polls Development Change Justice Democracy Peace Modernity Order Liberty Continuity Qualities ranked in order of decreasing perceived importance by voters This poll was conducted by Ipsos APOYO on March 12-18, 2011. About 2,000 residents in 23 regions of Peru were polled.
  5. 5. But past voting trends suggest high electoral volatility Voter Sentiment
  6. 6. Some even speculate that elections have become a competition of appearances rather than a constructive forum for differing political ideologies Elections I think that politics in Peru have gone from being an ideological mediocrity to being sadly one of being the politics of spectacles. In this campaign we have seen this in a flagrant manner, as the show is the most important. Mario Vargas Llosa, former presidential candidate and Nobel laureate Wall Street Journal interview, 3/28/2011
  7. 7. At this point, uncertainty still hangs heavy over the Peruvian presidential elections, though some key indicators may turn the tide in favor of certain candidates Conclusion Who seems to embody the qualities that Peruvians value most? Who can offer the change that Peruvians want? In other words, what kinds of reform do Peruvians desire most and which candidates are able to effectively respond to said demands? Who looks the best?
  8. 8. Appendix Introduction : Presidential Candidates <ul><li>Ollanta Hamala – the only leftist candidate; recently “toned down” his leftist stance – some speculate he did this to gain more voter support; seemingly less support for Hamala in the Lima/metro areas </li></ul><ul><li>Alejandro Toledo – former president (2001-2006), came to presidency after leading rebellion against former president/dictator Alberto Fujimori, founded Peru Posible party in 1994 (centrism and liberalism) </li></ul><ul><li>Keiko Fujimori – daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), convicted to 25 years in prison in 2009 for ordering two massacres that killed 25 people when he was battling guerrillas; however, he is also credited for uprooting terrorism and restoring its economic stability; Fujimori always references her father in her speeches and some believe she “won’t do the same bad things as her father because she is a young woman with fresh ideas.” </li></ul><ul><li>Pedro P. Kuczynski – former Wall Street banker and Prime Minister during Toledo’s presidency, dual citizen (U.S. and Peru), Alliance for Progress party </li></ul><ul><li>Luis Castañeda – mayor of Lima from 2003-2010, National Solidarity party, “least risky” candidate </li></ul>
  9. 9. Appendix Pre-election poll from 8/25-28 of 600 people in Lima & Metro area : Indicates strong support for Luis Castaneda The poll published by pollsters IMA Today is based on Lima & Metro area alone ( where for example Ollanta Humala is less popular and Luis Castañeda is better known) but the main takeway is that Alejandro Toledo is continuing his slow but steady rise in the polls.
  10. 10. Appendix Ollanta Humala : Political agenda On his political stance: “I’m neither left nor right. If you want to place me on a geographic table, put me on the bottom. Because the discourse of nationalism represents in particular those on the bottom.” Ollanta Humala slowly began gaining popularity as a candidate who was “not of the corrupt bunch,” as Toledo and Fujimori were regarded before him. Interestingly, Ollanta, himself an indigenous Peruvian, has not used the “race” card in his speeches. Ollanta, on the other hand, has significantly toned down his rhetoric in recent weeks after his candidacy took on more gravitas. He now is surrounded by journalists wherever he goes as well as businessmen seeking him out for clarification of his economic policies. In spite of that, Ollanta’s party’s website (http://www.partidonacionalistaperuano.com/) continues to be filled with extremist rhetoric like its calling for a Second Republic and the creation of a Constitutional Assembly as well as proclaiming that his movement is “anti-imperialist, and [… does] not accept the notion and imposition of a unipolar world.”
  11. 11. Appendix Voter Sentiment: Extremely volatile and still an unsolved mystery A 2006 study by the University of Lima found that 37.8 percent of voters in the capital showed little interest in the elections. Eleven percent decided their vote one week prior to the election, while 13 percent decided who they would support while waiting in line to cast their vote.

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