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Epistemic tools for chance-seeking


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Epistemic tools for chance-seeking

  1. 1. Epistemic tools for chance-seeking Emanuele Bardone Institute of Informatics, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia AISB Workshop - Bournemouth, 27-28 January 2014
  2. 2. “philosophy of science is about as useful to scientists as ornithology is to birds” R. Feynman
  3. 3. Engaging agent-based modelers in conversation 1) Hypothesis generation 2) Intervention 3) chanceseeking
  4. 4. Hypothesis generation 1
  5. 5. Hypothesis generation Deduction of consequences Empirical testing Empirical testing
  6. 6. Is there anything like a “logic” of hypothesis generation? Hypothesis ????? generation
  7. 7. Psycholo gy God knows what History and sociology
  8. 8. Abduction as the “logic” of HG Hypothesis generation involves a specific form of (fallacious) inference - called abduction. A fact, C, is observed. if H were true, C would be a matter of course. Hence, there is reason to suspect that H is true.
  9. 9. f f 1 2 f 3 f H or y at lan e xp alu E v 4 H is likely to be the case, because H explains the presence of all the relevant, known facts
  10. 10. Interventio n 2
  11. 11. Where do relevant facts come from then?
  12. 12. Scientists are not passive observers From “Kitchen stories”
  13. 13. Intervention via epistemic mediation
  14. 14. f f 1 2 f H 3 f 4 Intervening is still conjectural and yet has very little to do with inferring to the (best) explanation
  15. 15. The Meno’s Paradox To search for the solution of a problem is an absurdity. For either you know what you are looking for, and then there is no problem; or you do not know what you are looking for, and then you are not looking for anything and cannot expect to find anything
  16. 16. Chanceseeking 3
  17. 17. The role of chance events A chance is everything that we cannot anticipate or predict. As such it hints at nothing but our ignorance
  18. 18. Introducing chanceseeking As soon as we intervene in the world, we inevitably have to engage with our ignorance We can make use of our ignorance by tinkering on chance events
  19. 19. Chance-seeking as tinkering on chance events Adaptive, forward-looking No foresight into the future To make use of whatever comes in handy Ambulatory knowledge (we know as we go, not before we go) Clumsy solutions - kludges - yet workable and open to further improvements (if any)
  20. 20. Thanks!