1. FITCE 2010
4G readiness index 2008
Elias Aravantinos and M. Hosein Fallah, PhD
Howe School of Technology Management
Stevens Institute of Technology
The Forum for European ICT Professionals (Fitce),
July 2010, Chania, Crete

2. Agenda
 Introduction
 4G description
 Current trends and issues
 Motivation and model
 4G-readiness
 Model description
 Results and validation
 Conclusions and future work
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3. Introduction
 About this study, and ExelixisNet
 Aims to create a general technology management model
assessing new technology path among different markets
 Focuses on explaining 4G readiness, using 3.5G as a starting
point
 ExelixisNet was founded in NY, in 2007
 Telecom and new media consulting agency
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4. 4G definition
 There is no formal definition for 4G. It is a term used to
describe the next step in wireless communications.
 The defined objectives for 4G include:
 Fully integrated IP solution
 “Anytime, Anywhere”
 Seamless connectivity- wireless and wireline
 Global access and interconnection
 interoperability
 Data rates of at least 100Mbps
 Spectrally efficient system
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5. 4G evolution
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6. Investors and vendors
 4G Key Players
 2011 will be the year when LTE goes live Verizon in the United
States and DoCoMo in Japan will begin wide-scale roll-outs by
the end of 2010
 T-Mobile and AT&T drive 4G via HSPA+ path
 TeliaSonera has nationwide 4G licenses in Norway, Sweden,
Finland and Denmark. During 2010, the 4G network roll out
continues in Sweden's 25 largest cities and vacation areas and
Norway's four largest cities.
 800 MHz band, Vodafone Germany has indicated it will launch
LTE services targeted at rural areas within the next 12 months.
 Net4Mobility in Sweden will use Huawei’s LTE base stations
 Spring 2010, Australia turns up 4G with Huawei
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7. 4G Base Station
Teliasonera 4G LTE:
» Huawei and Nokia-Siemens
» Ericsson: Norway and Sweden
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8. Example of investment vs. speed
GERMAN MARKET
 Vodafone paid €1.42 billion for a
total of 12 spectrum blocks,
 Telefonica O2 paid €1.38 billion
for 11 blocks,
 Deutsche Telekom spent €1.3
billion for 10 blocks
 E-Plus paid €283.6 million for 8
blocks.
Speeds:
5 Mbps in rural locations, and up to
70 Mbps in cities
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9. Current Issues and research questions
 Issues:
 Several forecasts for the evolution of the 4G on a different time
window
 The 3G in most cases has not paid off
 WiMAX versus LTE debate seems to calm off
 Different strategies and investments
 Hard to evaluate 4G markets yet, slow unfold
 Research Questions:
 Which countries are closer to 4G adoption?
 Since the markets are still shaping up, how can we forecast
market potentials from the operators perspective?
 The 4G adoption is an outcome of disruptive innovations
rather than a natural path of technology evolution
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10. Approach to achieve 4G readiness
 Motivation/Ability Framework:
 Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to
Predict Industry Change Clayton M. Christensen, Scott D.
Anthony, Erik A. Roth HBS Press 2004
 E-readiness:
 What is the stage of readiness globally
 “E-readiness rankings of 2008”, “The Economist Intelligence
Unit 2008” report
 Network readiness
 NRI report of 2008, World Economic Forum
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11. Motivation/Ability Framework
High
Looking for a Target The Hotbed
Accessing resources Teeming for innovation
Motivation
(spectrum) or reaching
potential consumers
The Dilemma Looking for the Money
No readily available Firms struggle to find ways to
avenues to create profitable monetize an opportunity
Low businesses
Low High
Ability
Motivation: the 4G including the digital convergence is the pot of gold and
the new opportunity waiting for the winners, the first movers
Ability: obtain the resources needed to develop 4G and craft them into
business models for new products and services
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12. Motivation/Ability Framework ( cont.)
 Important non-market factors for 4G based on the
framework:
 Industry standards
 Cultural norms
 State of technological development
 Government regulation
 Country’s intellectual property infrastructure
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13. E-readiness
 E-readiness is a measure of the quality of a country’s
information and communications technology (ICT)
infrastructure and the ability of its consumers, businesses
and governments to use ICT to their benefit.
 The measure of a country’s ability to leverage digital
channels for communication, commerce and government in
order to further economic and social development
 Similar definition about the Network Readiness Index
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14. Advancing the E-readiness into 4G study
 Taking as input countries with the most efficient digital users,
assuming these countries are highly innovative
 Examining E-readiness criteria from a mobile wireless
perspective
 Assume the 4G evolution as a digital subcategory
developing similar categories and criteria
 Apply the model to the mobile wireless and forecast the
evolution based on the present
 Strategic results from different countries
 Include the non-market factors
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15. Our study
 “4G-Readiness” is a phrase we have
coined as analogous to e- readiness
 We will focus on highly ranked
countries
 The “state of play” of a country’s
mobile wireless status and the ability
of its consumers, businesses and
governments to use in the future the
mobile wireless to their benefit
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16. Weighting categories
Category Connectivity Business Social and Legal Consumer Governmen
Weight and environm cultural environment and t policy and
technology ent environme business vision
infrastructur nt trend
e
Criteria 1. mobile Overall Level of spectrum laws 1. 1. Telecom
phone political education efficiency, Consumer investing
penetration environme and literacy; Subscribers spending on per GDP
2. current nt; level of served per communicat
industry macroeco Internet MHz of ions 2. Total ICT
standards nomic literacy; Spectrum services; national
environme degree of 2. spending
nt; market entrepreneur availability rate
opportunit ship; of mobile
ies; policy technical wireless
toward skills of services for
private workforce; citizens and
enterprise; degree of businesses
foreign innovation.
investmen
t policy;
foreign
trade and
exchange
regimes;
tax
regime;
financing;
the labour
market.
Percentage 20% 20% 15% 10% 20% 15%
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17. Strategic countries for 4G adoption
 Select the top 20 from the e-readiness list based on the
highest ranking score
The list of the 20 countries consist of: USA, Hong Kong,
Sweden, Australia, Denmark, Netherlands, UK, Germany,
Japan, Switzerland, Austria, Finland, South Korea, New
Zealand, Bermuda, Taiwan, Belgium, Canada, Norway,
Singapore
 China will be added due to the China Mobile 4G activity
 Other strategic countries: India, Russia, Brazil due to the
facts:
 Almost represent half of the world’s population
 Showing record in wireless adoption the last few years
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18. 4G readiness for 20 countries
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19. Input – Output / Results for 2008
Network readiness
E-readiness Greece #64
Greece #28 Spain #32
Italy #24, Spain #25 Italy #33
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20. Expected results
 Countries with higher mobile wireless penetration level to
score higher than the e-readiness table The question is are
there anomalies? Needs to be substantiated by further
study!
 Countries that have more 4G operators and trials to be
placed higher in the list
 The higher the country in the list the more investments and
trials should attract in the future and closer to 4G adoption
 We will use the current ranking, then suggest how the
ranking changes over time and what question we can help
answer
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21. Conclusions
 This paper defines the 4G criteria and 4G Technology
Evolution based on current state of knowledge.
 Our continued research and the expected results will
shed light into the current operators strategies and
market structuring at a national level
 Will reveal the weak countries that might be strong in
the digital part but weak in the mobile wireless area and
the reasons
 Identify strong countries that will shape the 4G markets
faster and accumulate more capital investments
 LTE capable handsets and chipsets
 4G Study sampling regions
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22. Thank You – Questions?
Elias Aravantinos
ICT Consultant, ExelixisNet
www.exelixisnet.com
earavantinos@exelixisnet.com
Twitter: eliasara, exelixisnet
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