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Οι επιπτώσεις της περιόδου 2009-2019 στη μεσαία τάξη
MIDDLE INCOME CLASSES IN GREECE
DURING THE CRISIS: QUANTITATIVE
DIMEN...
Definitions, OECD (2019)“Under Pressure: The
Squeezed Middle Class”
• “Poor”: 0-50% of median income
• “Lower Income”: 50-...
The general picture
 Decline in GDP per capita -26.0%
2007-2013
 Increase in disposable income in
2008 and 2009
 Consol...
The general picture
 Dramatic shift of the income
distribution to the left
 Distribution became more
“compact”
 Lower i...
Inequality: Trends
90
100
110
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Inequality trends 2007-2016 (2007: 100...
Population shares and relative mean incomes: 2007, 2013 & 2016
Population Group
Population share Relative mean income Chan...
Income classes I: Population shares
• No dramatic changes
• 2007-2012
“Poor”: +3.5%
“Lower Income”: +1.3%
“Upper Income”: ...
Income classes II: Mean incomes
• (Almost) equipropotionate changes
Increase 2007-2009
(Sharp) decline 2009-2013
Flat prof...
Income classes III: Income shares
• (Significant) changes 2007-2011
Driven, primarily, by changes in population
shares
“Po...
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Composition of "Poor" by Occupational Status of ...
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Composition of "Poor" by Educational Level of HH...
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Shares of taxes and transfers in the gros...
Conclusions
• Middle class not easy to define
• Large middle class associated with low inequality (+ democracy + …)
• Duri...
Thank you very much
for your attention!
19.6.2019, Παρουσίαση Π. Τσακλόγλου στο Συνέδριο "Η Ελλάδα Μετά ΙΙΙ: Η ανασύσταση της μεσαίας τάξης"
19.6.2019, Παρουσίαση Π. Τσακλόγλου στο Συνέδριο "Η Ελλάδα Μετά ΙΙΙ: Η ανασύσταση της μεσαίας τάξης"
19.6.2019, Παρουσίαση Π. Τσακλόγλου στο Συνέδριο "Η Ελλάδα Μετά ΙΙΙ: Η ανασύσταση της μεσαίας τάξης"
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19.6.2019, Παρουσίαση Π. Τσακλόγλου στο Συνέδριο "Η Ελλάδα Μετά ΙΙΙ: Η ανασύσταση της μεσαίας τάξης"

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Για τρίτη συνεχή χρονιά, ο Κύκλος ιδεών για την Εθνική Ανασυγκρότηση,
σε συνεργασία με τη Συμεών Γ. Τσομώκος Α.Ε., πραγματοποιούν το ετήσιο διήμερο συνέδριο H ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΜΕΤΑ
στις 19 και 20 Ιουνίου 2019
στο ξενοδοχείο Divani Caravel.
Κεντρικό θέμα στο φετινό συνέδριο είναι: Η ανασύσταση της μεσαίας τάξης

Κύκλος ΙΙ: Οι επιπτώσεις της περιόδου 2009- 2019 στη μεσαία τάξη

https://ekyklos.gr/19-20-iouniou-ellada-meta-iii-i-anasystasi-tis-mesaias-taksis.html

Published in: Data & Analytics
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19.6.2019, Παρουσίαση Π. Τσακλόγλου στο Συνέδριο "Η Ελλάδα Μετά ΙΙΙ: Η ανασύσταση της μεσαίας τάξης"

  1. 1. Οι επιπτώσεις της περιόδου 2009-2019 στη μεσαία τάξη MIDDLE INCOME CLASSES IN GREECE DURING THE CRISIS: QUANTITATIVE DIMENSIONS Eleni Kanavitsa1 Panos Tsakloglou2 1Athens University of Economics and Business 2 Athens University of Economics and Business, IZA (Bonn) and Hellenic Observatory (LSE) e κύκλος Αθήνα, 19/6/2019
  2. 2. Definitions, OECD (2019)“Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class” • “Poor”: 0-50% of median income • “Lower Income”: 50-75% of median income • “Middle Income”: 75-200% of median income • “Lower Middle Income”: 75-125% of median income • “Upper Middle Income”: 125-200% of median income • “Upper Income”: 200%+ of median income
  3. 3. The general picture  Decline in GDP per capita -26.0% 2007-2013  Increase in disposable income in 2008 and 2009  Consolidation effort relied extensively on tax increases  Decline in mean (equiv.) disposable income -44.8% 2009-2015  Flat income profiles after 2013  Peak of unemployment in 2013 (27.5%)  Gradual decline in unemployment after 2013 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 GDP per capita, Mean disposable income and Unemployment rate; 2007-2016 Mean Equivalized Disposable Income GDP per capita Unemployment Rate
  4. 4. The general picture  Dramatic shift of the income distribution to the left  Distribution became more “compact”  Lower inequality  But more observations with very low incomes  Higher inequality
  5. 5. Inequality: Trends 90 100 110 120 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Inequality trends 2007-2016 (2007: 100) Gini ATK0.25 ATK0.75 MLD  Different SWFs behind inequality indices  Different types of sensitivities  Non-uniform pattern  2008/7 and 2008/2009 Intersecting Lorenz curves  Decline 2011/12  Taxation  Sharp rise in 2011/12  Effects of unemployment  Again in 2012/13 (but MLD)  Ditto + child benefits  Declines in 2013/14 and 2015/16  Effect of “social dividend”  By 2016 most indices below their 2007 values  Contrast with claims in public discourse
  6. 6. Population shares and relative mean incomes: 2007, 2013 & 2016 Population Group Population share Relative mean income Change 2007 2013 2016 2007 2013 2016 2007-16 A B C D E F G Socio-economic group of household head Self-employed with employees 5.2 3.8 3.6 1.50 1.42 1.36 -44.0 Self-employed without employees (agr.) 5.1 4.6 5.1 0.64 0.59 0.83 0.3 Self-employed without employees (non-agr.) 9.7 9.0 7.9 1.02 1.13 1.06 -36.3 Employee (private sector) 21.6 16.9 19.9 1.00 1.10 1.07 -33.4 Employee (public sector) 15.2 11.2 11.5 1.28 1.26 1.26 -37.5 Unemployed 3.3 13.0 11.1 0.68 0.62 0.59 -45.2 Pensioner 24.5 29.5 27.9 0.96 1.08 1.09 -28.0 Other 15.3 12.0 13.0 0.78 0.78 0.75 -39.7 Educational level of household head Less than primary 7.1 4.5 3.8 0.66 0.71 0.75 -25.8 Primary 28.9 22.6 20.8 0.78 0.77 0.80 -33.8 Lower secondary 10.1 11.0 10.0 0.81 0.76 0.79 -35.7 Upper secondary 29.4 32.0 32.6 0.99 0.94 0.95 -38.6 Post-secondary non-tertiary 3.9 5.7 6.6 1.08 0.95 0.97 -41.1 Tertiary 20.6 24.2 26.1 1.52 1.47 1.35 -46.5 GREECE 100.0 100.0 100.0 14377.7 8671.2 8965.75 -37.6
  7. 7. Income classes I: Population shares • No dramatic changes • 2007-2012 “Poor”: +3.5% “Lower Income”: +1.3% “Upper Income”: -2.2% (2011) “Middle Income”: -3.3% • Recovery after 2012 • 2007 and 2016 shares almost identical • Middle income classes close to 60% 35% + 25% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Population Shares of Income Classes 200%+ of median 125%-200% of median 75%-125% of median 50%-75% of median 0%-50% of median
  8. 8. Income classes II: Mean incomes • (Almost) equipropotionate changes Increase 2007-2009 (Sharp) decline 2009-2013 Flat profile thereafter Doubts about 2016 data 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real Mean Equivalized Disposable Income of income classes 0%-50% of median 50%-75% of median 75%-125% of median 125%-200% of median 200%+ of median
  9. 9. Income classes III: Income shares • (Significant) changes 2007-2011 Driven, primarily, by changes in population shares “Poor”: +0.8% (2012) “Lower Income”: +1.5% (2012) “Upper Income”: -4.8% “Middle Income”: -3.5% • Return to previous pattern after 2012 • 2007 and 2016 shares almost identical • Middle income classes close to 63% 30% + 23%0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Income Shares of income classes 200%+ of median 125%-200% of median 75%-125% of median 50%-75% of median 0%-50% of median
  10. 10. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Composition of "Poor" by Occupational Status of HH head Other Unemployed Pensioner Employee (publ) Employee (priv) Self-employed Employer 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Composition of "Lower Income" class by Occupational Status of HH head Other Unemployed Pensioner Employee (publ) Employee (priv) Self-employed Employer 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Composition of “Middle Income" class by Occupational Status of HH head Other Unemployed Pensioner Employee (publ) Employee (priv) Self-employed Employer 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Composition of “Upper Income" class by Occupational Status of HH head Other Unemployed Pensioner Employee (publ) Employee (priv) Self-employed Employer
  11. 11. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Composition of "Poor" by Educational Level of HH head tertiary upper secondary lower secondary primary or less 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Composition of "Lower Income" class by Educational Level of HH head tertiary upper secondary lower secondary primary or less 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Composition of "Middle Income" class by Educational Level of HH head tertiary upper secondary lower secondary primary or less 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Composition of "Upper Income" class by Educational Level of HH head tertiary upper secondary lower secondary primary or less
  12. 12. -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Shares of taxes and transfers in the gross income of the "Poor" Benefits Pensions Property Tax PIT & SICs -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Shares of taxes and transfers in the gross income of the "Lower Income" class Benefits Pensions Property Tax PIT & SICs -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Shares of taxes and transfers in the gross income of the "Middle Income" class Benefits Pensions Property Tax PIT & SICs -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Shares of taxes and transfers in the gross income of the "Upper Inc." class Benefits Pensions Property Tax PIT & SICs
  13. 13. Conclusions • Middle class not easy to define • Large middle class associated with low inequality (+ democracy + …) • During the crisis, very large decline in average income, no substantial changes in inequality, changes in population shares and mean incomes of particular population groups • Esp. HHs headed by unemployed and pensioners • Population and income share of the middle class did not change considerably • However, its composition did change substantially • Doubtful whether it was affected particularly adversely by increases in taxation
  14. 14. Thank you very much for your attention!

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