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المحاضرة الخامسة: إدارة المخاطر

سلسلة محاضرات إدارة المشاريع المقدمة من مؤسسة علماء مصر http://www.egyptscholars.org/pm

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المحاضرة الخامسة: إدارة المخاطر

  1. 1. Project Management Fifth Session Egypt Scholars Presented by Mohamed Khalifa Hassan Jan 2014 © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 30
  2. 2. 6. 1 Defining risk management 6.2 Benefits of risk management in project management 6.3 Risk management processes and tools © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 31 6. Risk Management
  3. 3. – Risk has three components: • An event • Probability of the occurrence of the event • Impact of that event (or the amount at stake) – Can risk be positive as well as negative? © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 32 6. 1 Defining risk management
  4. 4. “Project Risk Management includes the processes of conducting risk management planning, identification, analysis, response planning, and monitoring and control on a project. The objectives of Project Risk Management are to increase the probability and impact of positive events, and decrease the probability and impact of negative events in the project.” PMBOK® Guide – Fourth Edition, p. 273 © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 33 6. 1 Defining risk management
  5. 5. • Supporting strategic and business planning; • Supporting effective use of resources; • Promoting continuous improvement; • Fewer shocks and unwelcome surprises; • Quick grasp of new opportunities; • Enhancing communication between Schools and Departments; • Enhance other project management processes. © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 34 6.2 Benefits of risk management in project management
  6. 6. •The project risk management processes include: 5.3.1 Identify Risks 5.3.2 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 5.3.3 Plan Risk Responses 5.3.4 Monitor and Control Risks © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 35 6.3 Risk management processes and tools
  7. 7. 36 Identify Risks is the process of determining which risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics. © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 6.3 Risk management processes and tools 5.3.1 Identify Project Risks
  8. 8. Documentation reviews: – Structured reviews of project plans and related documents at both the total project and detailed scope levels. Information gathering techniques : – Data collection methods that the project team can use to assist in identifying risks. 37 Technique Description Brainstorming Used to identify overall project risks or may focus in on the risks within a particular project segment or work package. Delphi technique Generates a consensus among project risk experts who anonymously submit their risk list to a facilitator. Interviewing Used to get information from people with a wide experience across many projects. Root cause identification Used to find and group the risks by cause. Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis Examines the project from the perspective of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 6.3 Risk management processes and tools
  9. 9. • Risk register – The risk register ultimately contains the outcomes of the other risk management processes as they are conducted, the preparation of the risk register begins in the Risk Identification process with the following information, and then becomes available to other project management and Project Risk Management processes. • List of identified risks. • List of potential responses. • Root cause of risk. • Updated risk categories. 38 © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 6.3 Risk management processes and tools
  10. 10. 39 5.3.2 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis In this process you will rank and prioritize project risks according to their potential effect on project objectives. © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 6.3 Risk management processes and tools
  11. 11. Probability and impact matrix: – Illustrates a risk rating assignment for identified risks. – A probability/ impact risk rating matrix is the assignment of a risk rating to risks or conditions. The matrix combines the probability and impact scales to prioritize risks and identify risks that are likely to require further analysis The risk rating = risk’s impact score X probability score. 40© Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 6.3 Risk management processes and tools
  12. 12. 41 6.3.3 Plan Risk Response . Risk response planning is the process of examining each risk corresponding response alternatives, determining which response will improve the likelihood of a positive outcome. © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 6.3 Risk management processes and tools
  13. 13. The common strategies for threats are: • Avoid (Risk Avoidance). • Transfer (Risk transference) . • Mitigate Risk (Mitigation). • Contingency – Contingency Reserve – Contingency Plan 42© Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 6.3 Risk management processes and tools
  14. 14. The common strategies for opportunities are: • Exploit (Risk exploitation) • Share (Risk sharing) • Enhance (Risk enhancement – Influence the Impact) 43 © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 6.3 Risk management processes and tools
  15. 15. Risk Response Plan – Detailed actions – Identify risks with ownerships – Results of Qualitative and Quantitative analysis. – Agreed-upon responses – Residual risk & specific actions – Symptoms and warning sign of risks’ occurrence. – Budget and time of responses. – Contingency plans – Fallback plans (in case of Contingency plans are ineffective) – Residual risks : After implementing any of the risk response strategies, residual risk is leftover. – Secondary risks: Risks that come about as a result of implementing a risk response Risk-related contractual: – Insurance, partnerships, and risk sharing parties will generate language that specifies each party’s responsibility for different risks. 44 © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 6.3 Risk management processes and tools
  16. 16. 45 5.3.4 Monitor and Control Risks Risk Monitoring and control is the process of responding to identified and unforeseen risks. It involves tracking identified risks , identifying new risks, implement risk response plans, and monitoring their effectiveness. © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 6.3 Risk management processes and tools
  17. 17. Q & A © Mohamed Khalifa, 2014 All Rights Reserved 46

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سلسلة محاضرات إدارة المشاريع المقدمة من مؤسسة علماء مصر http://www.egyptscholars.org/pm

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