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AN AGENT-BASED MODEL OF EPIDEMICSPREAD USING HUMANMOBILITY AND SOCIAL    NETWORKS        E. Frias-Martinez, G. Williamson,...
Epidemic Disease Models      Compartmental Models (SEIR)Susceptible               Exposed            Infectious          ...
Digital FootprintsFor the first time in human history, we have access to large-scale human behavioral data   at varying le...
Ce ll Phone N e t w orkCell Phone networks are built using Base Transceiver Stations (BTS)Each BTS will be characterized...
2233445566|3E884DB|15/02/2011|23:02:35|...               2233445567|3E884DC|16/02/2011|23:02:35|...               22334455...
ABM for Virus Spreading using CDRMobility ModelSocial Network    ModelDisease Model
M3                       S3                      D3                M2                       S2                      D2    ...
Closed                  Reopen    Preflu                27th April              6th May              Alert                ...
   Call Detail Records from 1st Jan. till 31st.May 2009   Compute mobility and social models     Baseline scenario    ...
Agent Generation   Call Detail Records from 1st Jan. till 31st.May 2009   Granularity of 1 hour   20% of slots filled /...
April 27th   May 1st   May 6th                                                   Mobility reduced between                 ...
Baseline (“preflu” behavior all weeks)Intervention (alert,closed,shutdown)     Epidemic peak postponed 40               ho...
March 8thMay 14th   April 29th       May 3rd
Future
Enriched Agents (Gender, Age, Vaccinations)Methodology for studying spatio-temporalevolution.
An Agent-Based Model of Epidemic Spread using Human Mobility and Social Network Information
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An Agent-Based Model of Epidemic Spread using Human Mobility and Social Network Information

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An Agent-Based Model of Epidemic Spread using Human Mobility and Social Network Information

  1. 1. AN AGENT-BASED MODEL OF EPIDEMICSPREAD USING HUMANMOBILITY AND SOCIAL NETWORKS E. Frias-Martinez, G. Williamson, V. Frias-Martinez Telefonica Research, Madrid, Spain efm@tid.es
  2. 2. Epidemic Disease Models  Compartmental Models (SEIR)Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered Contact Transition Recovery Rate Rate Rate  Agent Based Models  Capure complexity of social interaction  Limitation with the information available to generate the agents
  3. 3. Digital FootprintsFor the first time in human history, we have access to large-scale human behavioral data at varying levels of spatial and temporal granularities
  4. 4. Ce ll Phone N e t w orkCell Phone networks are built using Base Transceiver Stations (BTS)Each BTS will be characterized by a feature vector that describes t calling behavior area.
  5. 5. 2233445566|3E884DB|15/02/2011|23:02:35|... 2233445567|3E884DC|16/02/2011|23:02:35|... 2233445568|3E884DD|17/02/2011|23:02:35|... 2233445569|3E884E5|18/02/2011|23:02:35|...URBAN 1-4km²
  6. 6. ABM for Virus Spreading using CDRMobility ModelSocial Network ModelDisease Model
  7. 7. M3 S3 D3 M2 S2 D2 M1 S1 D1 Social Network Mobility Model Disease Model Modelt₀ t₁ t₂ t₃ … t₉ (1 hour) Identify geographical location (BTS) Identify peers in same BTS If peer in SN then evolve disease model with p_i Else evolve disease model with p_j
  8. 8. Closed Reopen Preflu 27th April 6th May Alert Shutdown 17th April 1st MayMeasure the impact that government alerts had on the population Flu is very good candidate to be modelled by SEIR
  9. 9.  Call Detail Records from 1st Jan. till 31st.May 2009 Compute mobility and social models  Baseline scenario  Intervention scenario  Simulation April 17th to May 16th “Evolve” disease and evaluate impact in  Agent’s mobility  Disease transmission  Spatio-temporal evolution
  10. 10. Agent Generation Call Detail Records from 1st Jan. till 31st.May 2009 Granularity of 1 hour 20% of slots filled /0.25 calls per hour Agents active during the different time periods Final number of agents: 25,000 Reproduction number / Latent period / infectious period obtained from the literature.
  11. 11. April 27th May 1st May 6th Mobility reduced between 10% and 30% Alert Closed Shutdown ReopenIntervention
  12. 12. Baseline (“preflu” behavior all weeks)Intervention (alert,closed,shutdown) Epidemic peak postponed 40 hours Reduced number of infected in peak agents by 10%
  13. 13. March 8thMay 14th April 29th May 3rd
  14. 14. Future
  15. 15. Enriched Agents (Gender, Age, Vaccinations)Methodology for studying spatio-temporalevolution.

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