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HYPOTHESES ON MISPERCEPTION by Robert Jervis

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HYPOTHESES ON MISPERCEPTION by Robert Jervis

  1. 1. Robert Jervis<br />HYPOTHESES ON MISPERCEPTION<br />
  2. 2. Hypothesis 1:<br />“Decision-makers tend to fit<br />incoming information into their existing<br />theories and images.”<br />
  3. 3. Hypothesis 2:<br />“There are two ways to make mistakes:<br />One is to not change your views in the face of conflicting information,<br />the other is to be too willing to do so.<br />…<br />Both scholars and decision-makes are more likely to do the first (not to change their views).”<br />
  4. 4. Hypothesis 3:<br />“It&apos;s easier to integrate<br />contradicting information into your image if it comes bit-by-bit than if it comes all at once.<br />So deliver it all at once, as a fully-formed competing theory<br />that must be reckoned with.”<br />
  5. 5. Hypothesis 4:<br />“Misperception is easiest to correct<br />if an actor is miscategorized(but the category exists in your head)<br />(e.g. Britain was aware of the category of expansionist states, but it didn&apos;t think Hitler belonged in it); <br />t is hardest to correct if your mind completely lacks a certain category<br />(e.g. China in the 19th century didn&apos;t know what to make of the West).”<br />
  6. 6. Hypothesis 5:<br />“If the sender (of a message) has<br />something different on his mind<br />(the &quot;evoked set&quot;) than the receiver does,<br />misunderstanding is likely.”<br />
  7. 7. Hypothesis 6:<br />“The more time I spend drawing up a plan,<br />the more clear it is to me.<br />So I will assume it is equally clear to you,<br />making misperception on your part<br />even more likely.”<br />
  8. 8. Hypothesis 7:<br />“An action may convey<br />an unintended message if the<br />action itself doesn‘t turn out<br />as planned. ”<br />
  9. 9. Hypothesis 8:<br />“Decision-makers tend<br />to see other states as more hostile<br />than they are.”<br />
  10. 10. Hypothesis 9:<br />“We tend to assume that<br />the behavior of others is more centralized and<br />coordinated than it is.”<br />
  11. 11. Hypothesis 10:<br />“Similarly, we tend to take<br />the foreign ministry&apos;s position as representative of the government<br />as a whole.”<br />
  12. 12. Hypothesis 11:<br />“When states do something we like,<br />we give ourselves too much credit<br />for getting them to do so; when states do something we don&apos;t like,<br />we attribute it mostly to internal (domestic) forces.”<br />
  13. 13. Hypothesis 12:<br />“When I don&apos;t try to conceal my intentions,<br />I assume that you<br />accurately perceive them”<br />
  14. 14. Hypothesis 13:<br />“Suggests that if it is hard for an actor<br />to believe that the other can<br />see him as a menace,<br />it is often even harder for him<br />to see that issues important to him are not important to others.”<br />
  15. 15. Hypothesis 14:<br />“We tend to forget that<br />a single bit of evidence might support more than one view,<br />including opposing views.”<br />
  16. 16. Source: http://wikisum.com/w/Jervis:_Hypotheses_on_misperception 01/05/09 10:45AM<br /> From WikiSummary, the Free Social Science Summary Database<br />Prepared by:<br />Edwin B. Estrera<br />B.A. Political Science 4<br />University of the Philippines Cebu College<br />

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