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GEF California Results

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Towards Learner-Centered Lifelong Learning
Results of Global Education Futures Forum in Menlo Park, CA, USA, 1-3 April 2015

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GEF California Results

  1. 1. Towards Learner- Centered Lifelong Learning Results  of     Global  Educa0on  Futures  California     1-­‐3  April  2015,  Menlo  Park,  CA,  USA  
  2. 2. 2   Key  statement  that  led  to  GEF  California  Forum   An0cipated  transi0on  from  ‘factory  systems’  to  learner-­‐ centered  communi0es  that  support  ‘lifelong  learning   everywhere  all  the  0me’  is  the  biggest  challenge  ever  in   the  history  of  educa0on.       Many  progressive  global  players  already  invest  into  this   transi0on,  including  major  technology  companies,   governments  of  OECD  countries,  venture  capitalists  and   interna0onal  social  movements     Our  ques0on  is:  what  are  the  produc0ve  strategies  of   different  players  that  support  &  enhance  this  scenario?  
  3. 3. Towards  learner-­‐ centered  lifelong   learning     We  explore  main  changes  in  educa0on  driven  by   technological  innova0ons,  major  social  &  economic   transforma0ons,  changes  in  demand  for  skills,  and   rise  of  personal  &  collec0ve  educa0onal  formats   that  meet  needs  of  learners  in  21st  century   From  ‘knowns’  to   ‘unknowns’   This  Forum  is  a  collec0ve  explora0on,  a  learning  lab   It  is  not  to  seek  expert  opinion  but  to  co-­‐create   Our  main  outcomes  are:   •  Shared  vision  for  the  future  of  global  educa0on,   and   •  Projects  of  systemic  innova0on  inspired  by   collec0ve  vision   GEF  California:  Main  Subject  &  Expected  Outcomes   3  
  4. 4. GEF  California  Forum:  3  days  of  intense  work   Ca.  100  par0cipants  from  15  countries  (over  three  days),  including  representa0ves   of  think-­‐and-­‐do  tanks  in  systemic  educa0onal  innova0on,  policy  advisors  and   visionaries,  and  ca.  40  leaders  of  online  learning  plaorms  &  projects*   Mixed  Russian-­‐American  team  of  facilitators  that  used  innova0ve  methods  of   collec0ve  crea0ve  work  (Rapid  Foresight  methodology)   Forum  conducted  in  collabora0on  with  Global  Technology  Symposium,  a  leading   venture  capital  event  of  the  Silicon  Valley  (over  400  par0cipants  in  2015)   4  ‘maps  of  the  future’  and  5  GEF  project  ini0a0ves   *  See  details  in  Appendix   4  
  5. 5. PART  1:  PRECURSORS  TO     LIFELONG  LEARNER-­‐CENTERED  EDUCATION   5  
  6. 6. Industrial  society  /     economy   Knowledge  based   economy   Wisdom  based   society   SocieQes  in  transiQon   1.  The  main  challenges  and  existen0al  threats  of  modern  civiliza0on  are  endogenous  to   the  society.  The  bobleneck  of  civiliza0onal  development  is  the  ability  of  governing   structures  (including  culture  &  domina0ng  thinking  models)  to  process  the   accelerated  increase  of  social  /  technological  /  environmental  complexity     2.  Knowledge  based  economy,  shicing  aben0on  from  mass  manufacturing  of  material   goods  to  mass  produc0on  of  knowledge,  does  not  resolve  the  ‘ills’  of  industrial   society,  including  the  imbalance  between  the  society  &  nature.  In  order  to  cope  with   future  challenges,  it  is  necessary  to  transit  to  wisdom  based  society,  where  wisdom   (as  “fundamental  pragma0cs  of  life”  (Baltes,  Staudinger,  2000))  drives  decision-­‐ making  of  individuals  and  collec0ves.     Economies  directly  based   on  the  produc0on,   distribu0on  and  use  of   knowledge  and   informa0on  (OECD,  1996)   Society  based  on   (collec0ve)  wisdom  for   common  good,  alongside   with  new  models  of   produc0on  &  sharing   Economy  and  society   dominated  by  mass-­‐ produc0on  manufacturing   based  on  intensifying   division  of  labor   Source:  GEF  analysis  (based  on  GEF  Advisory  Board  mee0ng,  October  2014)   6  
  7. 7. ‘New’  educaQon  rises  within  and  outside   tradiQonal  educaQon  system  in  response  to   growing  demand  from  transforming  socieQes   Educa0on  spills  out  of   tradi0onal  ins0tu0ons   and  leads  to  the  rise  of   ‘new’  (network-­‐based)   educa0on   Increasing  complexity  of   socio-­‐technical  systems   (incl.  VUCA*   environments)  redefines   demand  for  new  skills  &   knowledge   Low  flexibility  of  exis0ng   ins0tu0ons   Lack  of  epistemology   required  to  cope  with   21st  century  challenges   Technological  enablers:   •  Mobility  &  connec0vity   •  Automa0on  (Big  Data  /     AI  /  etc.)   Source:  GEF  analysis   7   *  VUCA  =  vola0lity,  uncertainty,  complexity,  and  ambiguity  
  8. 8. What  happens  to  skills  &  knowledge  required  in  increasingly  complex  socie0es:   •  Lifecycle  of  specific  skill  /  knowledge  shortens,  hence  it  becomes  less  important   than  the  ability  to  learn  /  relearn  /  unlearn   •  Knowledge  becomes  situated  and  collec0vely  constructed,  thus  specific  skills   become  less  relevant  than  meta-­‐skills  necessary  to  construct  knowledge,   including  communica0on,  crea0vity,  diversity  of  thinking  styles  etc.   •  Abili0es  for  self-­‐guided  ac0on  become  more  important  than  abili0es  to  follow   externally  guided  ac0on  (hence  we  an0cipate  a  genera0on  of  Self  Guided   Learners  that  will  use  tools  of  ‘new’  educa0on)   What  happens  to  systems  that  transfer  skills  &  knowledge:   •  Shic  from  ‘educa0on  as  prepara0on  for  life’  to  ‘lifelong  con0nuous  educa0on’   •  Shic  from  educa0on  within  a  specific  ins0tu0on  (school  /  university)  to   ‘distributed’  educa0on  within  an  ecosystem   What  growth  of  complexity  may  imply  for   systems  that  transfer  skills  &  knowledge   Source:  GEF  analysis  (based  on  GEF  Advisory  Board  mee0ng,  October  2014)   8  
  9. 9. Rise  of  global  educa0onal   providers:   •  (primarily)  Global  online   learning  plaorms   •  Global  social  movements   •  Global  technological   corpora0ons   •  Leading  world   universi0es   Emergence  of  Global  EducaQonal  Ecosystem   Con0nuous  globaliza0on:   •  Recogni0on  of  global  risks:   existen0al,  environmental,   economical  &  poli0cal   •  Globaliza0on  of  economic,   poli0cal  &  cultural  life   •  Emerging  systems  of  supra-­‐ na0onal  governance   •  Growing  share  of  global   content  in  media  &  daily   life   Rise  of  global   educa0onal   ecosystem   Gradually   declining  role  of   na0onal   educa0onal   governance   Source:  GEF  analysis  (based  on  GEF  Advisory  Board  mee0ng,  October  2014)   9  
  10. 10. ‘More  of  the  same’:  increasing   economic  efficiency  /   produc0vity  /  compe00veness  in   21  century   Key  discussions:  educa0on  is  broken   but  could  be  fixed  by  introducing   beber  pedagogies  /  ed  tech     &  new  curriculum   Key  discussions:  new  models  of   educa0on  that  should  complement   exis0ng  ones  (e.g.  urban  learning   communi0es)   ‘Rebuilding  urban  civilizaQon’:   focusing  on  life  quality  &  social  impact   (e.g.  Sharing  Economy,  Scharmer’s   Capitalism  4.0,  Florida’s  ‘Reinven0ng   Ci0es’  etc.)   Key  discussions:  how  can  educa0on   help  us  reinvent  our  rela0onship   between  ourselves,  with  our   ancestors  /  descendants,  and  with  our   planet     ‘CivilizaQonal  transit’:  focusing  on  emerging   social  prac0ces  that  help  us  recognize   ourselves  as  a  truly  planetary  species   (e.g.  Macy’s  Great  Turning,  Eisenstein’s   More  Beau0ful  World  etc.)   10   Design  of  global  educaQon  ecosystem:     levels  of  consideraQon   Source:  GEF  analysis  
  11. 11. 11   Designing  future  of  global  educaQon  is  seeking     the  pathway  towards  protopia   Present   Seeking  to  implement   game-­‐changing  visions  and   solu0ons  that  are  feasible,   desirable,  and  realizable  in   the  here  and  now   Protopia   Utopia   Dystopia   Idealis0c  (and  ocen  overly   op0mis0c)  futures  seeking   solu0ons  that  ul0mately  end   up  being  unabainable  and  are   inspira0onal  but  frustra0ng   Unimagina0ve  ‘con0nued   present’  seeking  merely  to   extend  and  enhance  current   paberns  of  being  and  doing   Myopia   Reac0ve  (and  some0me   fatalis0c)  futures  seeking   only  to  avoid  or  avert   scenarios  considered   dangerous  or  undesirable  
  12. 12. ‘Three  pillars’  of  global  educaQon  ecosystem   design   Global     educaQonal     ecosystem      ‘TechnoopQmism’   Humanism   Thrivability   Employing   full  poten0al   of  ICT  to   transform   educa0onal   prac0ces   Recognizing   the  risk  of   civiliza0onal   hubris  and     bringing   back  love   into  teacher-­‐ student   rela0on   Establishing   new  balance   between   Nature  and   the   humanity   Openness   •  open  technology     •  open  content   •  open  knowledge     Wholeness   •  Apollonian  &   Dionysian   •  health,  love,  and   “intrinsic  virtue”   Sustainability   •  Intra-­‐personal   •  Inter-­‐personal   •  Inter-­‐species   •  Inter-­‐genera0onal   Values  of  the  emerging  21  century  society   Source:  based  on  presenta0ons  of  Toru  Iiyoshi,  Claudio  Naranjo  &  Alexander  Laszlo  during  GEF  CA  mee0ng   12  
  13. 13. 2015   2020   2030   Key  technological  trends  that     shape  future  of  educaQon`   Connec0vity  &  mobility                        Automa0on  /  rise  of  Ar0ficial  Intelligence   Deep  learning:  machines   learning  with  humans   using  brain  models   NeuroWeb  technologies   Brain  nano-­‐ implants   Global  WiFi   Mandatory   neuro-­‐ implan0ng?   Implan0ng   gadgets   Risk  factor   Hard  technologies   Low-­‐cost   robo0cs   Cloud  technologies   rapidly  remove  data   storage  limits   Wide  use  of   Augmented  Reality   technologies   Fully  func0onal   Internet  of  Things   Fully   immersive   virtual  reality   Source:  GEF  CA     session  summary   13  
  14. 14. Key  social  &  economic  factors  that     shape  future  of  global  educaQon   2015   2020   2030                                                  Rise  of  New  Finance       Cryptocurrencies   for  everyone   Crowdinves0ng  for   social  innova0on                                                  Decline  of  tradi0onal  governments       Source:  GEF  CA     session  summary   Social   entrepreneurship   for  social  change                                                  Transi0on  of  power  towards  Asian  economies  /  BRICS                                                  Growth  of  mul0culturalism   New  transparency   Reputa0on   currencies   Growth  of  South-­‐ South  trade   Planned  archaiza0on:  to  avoid  self-­‐ transforma0on,  governments  try  to   simplify  socie0es  they  govern              From  global  to  glocal:  rising  importance  of  ci0es  &  territories   Ci0es  as   learning   labs   Soc  technology  /  format   Risk  factor   New  lingua  franca   is  IT  based   14  
  15. 15. PART  2:  KEY  ELEMENTS  OF     GLOBAL  EDUCATION  ECOSYSTEM   15  
  16. 16. +20  years   Na0onal  content     &  standards   School  /     university   Global   learning  plaorms   City  &  area   educa0onal  ecosystems     that  support  lifelong  learning   City  /  area   (intermediary  level)   DramaQc  shiZ:  from  local-­‐naQonal  to  regional-­‐global   Na0onal  level  (intermediary)   Global  level     (lack  of  authority)   Up  to  2010s   Mid-­‐2030s   Source:  GEF  analysis   16  
  17. 17. Global     online     learning     plaorms   New  models     of  knowledge     crea0on  (‘post-­‐ science’)   Learning     for     emerging   social     prac0ces     Local     learning     ecosystems     community               learner     global   local   content  form   Main  aspects  of  the  emerging  global     educaQonal  ecosystem   Source:  GEF  analysis   17  
  18. 18. Global     online     learning     plaorms   New  models     of  knowledge     crea0on  (‘post-­‐ science’)   Learning  for   emerging   social     prac0ces     Local     learning     ecosystems     Theme  1:  Global  learning  pla[orms  (GLPs)   Some  ques0ons  discussed  by  the  group:   •  Rela0onship  between  face-­‐to-­‐face,   blended,  and  online  learning?  How  will   new  models  of  learning  change   tradi0onal  schooling  structures  and  the   older  model  of  teacher/student   rela0on?   •  How  are  the  internet,  the  social  web,   video  games,  and  other  forms  of   gamifica0on  changing  the  educa0onal   ecosystem  on  a  local  and  world  scale?   •  How  can  families,  educators,  policy   makers,  and  school  leaders  use   technology  to  create  learning   opportuni0es  that  are  both   personalized  and  collabora0ve  in  design   and  nature?   •  What  does  it  mean  that  English  is  the   lingua  franca  of  the  internet  age?  How   will  it  influence  local  and  global  learning   networks?  Might  English  be  eclipsed  by   other  languages,  including  computer   languages  (e.g.  Python,  Ruby  etc.)?   18  
  19. 19.                                  Spreading  of  technology  enabled  ‘new’  educa0on                   Mapping  future  of  GLPs   2015   2020   2030   Rise  of  digital  pedagogy   Unbundling  /  atomiza0on  of  content   New  educa0on   dominated  by   global  tech   companies   Rise  of  agency  based  online  learning   Declara0on   of  Learner   Rights   Online  learning   dominates  educa0on   Conflict  between   tradi0onal  knowledge   holders  (academy)  &   new  knowledge   networks   Metaplaorm:   interoperable  plaorm   between  GLPs     Crisis  driven   accelerated  learning   plaorms   Cross-­‐community   problem  solving   Personalized   learning   trajectories  for   everyone   Crisis  of  tradi0onal   educa0onal  system  in   industrialized  countries   due  to  cost  inefficiency   Soc  technology  /  format   Policy  /  governance  mechanism   Risk  factor   Online  learning   dominated  by  mobile   plaorms   Schools  with   blended-­‐learning-­‐ friendly  classes   Paradigmal  conflict:   lecturing  vs.   collabora0on  in  GLPs   Robo0c   teachers   Hard  technologies   Uber   Teachers   Source:  GEF  CA  session   19  
  20. 20. Key  trends  that  shape  the  future  of  GLPs   Spreading  of  technology  enabled  ‘new’  educaQon  through  GLPs:   •  At  the  moment,  online  learning  is  considered  complimentary  and  experience-­‐enhancing  as  compared   to  face-­‐to-­‐face  learning.  This  idea  con0nues  to  encourage  more  schools  &  universi0es  to  adopt   blended  learning  in  their  curriculum  &  create  blended-­‐learning  friendly  classrooms.  The  most   important  problem  resolved  by  ‘new’  educa0on  is  the  increased  value  of  0me  for  learners,  teachers  &   administrators.   •  Gradually,  learning  shics  to  mobile  plaorms,  detaching  the  learning  process  from  tradi0onal  venues   like  the  classroom  &  university.     •  Increasingly  costly  face-­‐to-­‐face  educa0on  in  industrialized  countries  is  leading  to  vast  inequali0es   among  students  and  among  broader  popula0on  segments.  Such  dispari0es  could  well  polarize   socie0es  and  encourage  more  and  more  people  and  popula0ons  to  shic  to  GLPs.   •  Within  15-­‐20  years,  online  learning  (enhanced  by  mobile  connec0vity,  wearable  gadgets  &  augmented   reality  technologies)  may  become  the  dominant  form  of  learning  globally.   Rise  of  agency-­‐based  online  learning:   •  Project-­‐based  learning  (PBL)  begins  to  dominate  face-­‐to-­‐face  educa0on,  and  will  gradually  be   adopted  by  GLPs  as  well.  It  will  especially  be  demanded  by  Self-­‐Guided  Learners  (see  Theme  3)  that   prefer  an  ac0ve  exploratory  astude  in  learning  to  passivizing  ‘knowledge  consumer’  astude.   •  GLPs  can  help  improve  life  on  planetary  scale,  e.g.  incuba0ng  ac0vists  projects  through  project-­‐ based  learning.  GLPs  allow  engaging  in  ethical  behavior  for  massive  groups  without  imposing     doctrinal  restric0ons   •  Also,  GLPs  can  be  used  to  help  rapidly  transfer  new  knowledge  &  skills  to  communi0es  /  socie0es  in   distress  in  crisis  situa0ons  (economy  collapse,  war,  natural  hazard,  environmental  disaster,  etc.).   Over  0me,  GLPs  can  become  essen0al  in  connec0ng  communi0es  across  the  world  that  face  similar   problems  (e.g.  poverty,  crime,  hunger,  etc.)  to  help  cross-­‐community  learning   20  
  21. 21. Key  trends  that  shape  the  future  of  GLPs  (2)   Unbundling  /  atomizaQon  of  content  (subtrend):   •  Atomiza0on  allows  learners  to  obtain  content  that  more  precisely  matches  their  interests  &   development  needs.  Also,  atomiza0on  supports  mobile  delivery  of  content   •  Atomiza0on  challenges  the  posi0on  of  tradi0onal  ‘knowledge  holders’  (i.e.  academia)   leading  to  conflicts.  IP  rights  and  licensing  might  well  be  used  to  protect  the  posi0on  of   tradi0onal  ins0tu0ons  and  perhaps  further  secure  the  rela0onship  between  tradi0onal   academic  research  ins0tu0ons  and  corpora0ons.  In  this  future  vision,  what  becomes  of  the   users  who  are  ocen  creators  of  content  and  new  forms  and  means  of  knowledge?   •  Aggrega0on  of  atomized  content  into  searchable  global  library,  curated  topical  collec0ons  &   collabora0ve  structured  discussions   •  Over  0me,  as  more  knowledge  work  migrates  into  distributed  network  knowledge  crea0on   structures  (see  Theme  2),  this  conflict  will  likely  be  resolved  in  favor  of  GLPs.  As  a  result,   knowledge  comes  to  be  created  by  an  ever  more  vast  number  of  people  yet  is  controlled  or   archived  by  dis0nct  agencies,  plaorm  creators,  or  service  providers  (such  as  Google,   Minecrac,  and  Wikipedia).   •  In  such  a  global  society,  what  happens  to  the  largely  western  concep0on  of  ‘liberal   educa0on’  (educa0on  across  many  fields  of  knowledge  &  explora0on)  in  favor  of  more   focused  career  training?  Are  some  forms  of  knowledge  such  as  memoriza0on  displaced   while  other  forms  of  knowledge  such  as  discernment  become  ascendent?     21  
  22. 22. Rise  of  digital  pedagogy:   •  Digital  pedagogy  (enabled  by  Big  Data  analysis  and  Ar0ficial  Intelligence)  allows  gradual   customiza0on  (later,  personaliza0on)  of  GLP  content  based  on  learner’s  behavioral  paberns   and  life  strategies  (incl.  career,  health,  etc.).  Within  15-­‐20  years,  it  will  allow  delivery  of   personalized  educa0on  to  every  tech-­‐equipped  learner.  Ques0ons  remain  about  how   personaliza0on  could  well  serve  to  drive  learners  towards  select  kinds  of  informa0on  and   conclusions  based  on  human  biases  or  AI  manipula0on,  inten0onal  or  otherwise.   •  Global  technology  companies,  as  aggregators  of  personalized  online  behavioral  data,  will   inevitably  play  significant  role  in  future  global  educa0onal  ecosystem.  This  raises  issues  of   priva0za0on,  learner  privacy,  and  social  engineering  on  a  world  scale.   •  In  collabora0on  with  global  tech  companies,  a  ‘meta-­‐plaorm’  can  be  created  as  a  consor0um   between  GLPs,  which  will  aggregate  standardized  learners’  data  in  order  to  foster   interoperability  of  GLPs  (recognizing  that  any  fixed  plaorm  will  be  a  hindrance  to  evolu0on  of   the  ecosystem).  Interoperability  or  a  standard  meta-­‐plaorm  could  boost  the  personalized   learning  trajectories  of  individuals  and  communi0es  while  suppor0ng  the  development  of  new   online  pedagogies  that  meet  the  needs  of  an  ever  more  diverse  base  of  learners.     •  Due  to  the  sensi0ve  nature  of  learning  processes,  the  importance  of  educa0on  for  individual   and  societal  advancement,  learners’  interests  must  be  protected  against  abuse  &  manipula0on   by  commerce  &  governments.  To  guard  against  these  possible  viola0ons,  GLPs  and  global  tech   companies  should  adopt  the  Declara0on  of  Learner  Rights  in  the  nearest  future.  Plaorms   should  build  on  learner’s  interests,  help  make  learning  more  relevant  to  life,  don’t  waste  their   0me  and  give  them  feedback  and  recommenda0ons.  Plaorms  also  should  allow  room  for   disagreement,  diversity  and  open-­‐mindedness.   Key  trends  that  shape  the  future  of  GLPs  (3)   22  
  23. 23. How  will  the  future  look  for  GLPs   …  in  2020   …  in  2030   •  Online  educa0on  forms  con0nue   spreading,  and  more  educa0onal   ins0tu0ons  adopt  blended-­‐learning   friendly  curriculum  &  environments     •  GLP  learning  model  gradually  shics  from   one-­‐to-­‐many  (conven0onal  MOOCs)   towards  many-­‐to-­‐many,  and  from   ‘consumerist’  towards  ‘ac0vist’  model  of   learning;  first  project-­‐based  learning   global  online  plaorms  emerge   •  Declara0on  of  Learner  Rights  and  Global   Learning  Meta-­‐plaorm  help  advance  the   development  of  digital  pedagogy  and   design  of  inter-­‐plaorm  learning   trajectories   •  Online  or  online-­‐supported  learning   (enhanced  by  AI  and  AR)  dominate   educa0on   •  Inexpensive  personalized  learning   available  to  any  tech-­‐equipped  user     •  Many-­‐to-­‐many  pedagogy  and   online  project  based  learning  are   increasingly  popular  as  the   genera0on  of  Self  Guided  Learners   comes  into  play   •  GLPs  play  important  role  in   coordina0ng  and  enhancing   collec0ve  effort  for  beber  world   23  
  24. 24. Global     online     learning     plaorms   New  models     of  knowledge     crea0on  (‘post-­‐ science’)   Theme  2:  New  Models  of  Knowledge  CreaQon   Some  ques0ons  discussed  by  the   group:     •  Science  in  the  era  of  ‘instant   knowing’,  the  role  of  AIs  &   BigData   •  Many  types  of  knowledge  and   their  federa0on,  who  creates  &   owns  the  ‘worldview’   •  New  ‘technologies  of  thinking’   •  The  trend  toward  over-­‐ simplifica0on  of  knowledge  in   schools  (and  the  loss  of  true   understanding  for  students)   •  The  increased  aben0on  to  the   importance  of  empathy  for   sharing  worldviews  and  to  give   depth  to  shared  knowledge   Learning  for   emerging   social     prac0ces     Local     learning     ecosystems     24  
  25. 25. Mapping  future  of     Knowledge  CreaQon   2015   2020   2030                      Rise  of  Ar0ficial  Intelligence  assisted  research                  Growing  complexity-­‐simplicity  tension                  Re-­‐humaniza0on  of  knowledge  work                      Net-­‐centric  digitalized  knowledge  organiza0on   Migra0on  from  academia   to  online  network  KC   communi0es   Empathy  educa0on  to   increase  and  build  networks   of  empathy   Global  knowledge   ecosystem  in  full   use   Natural-­‐social-­‐ technical  system   engineering   AI  takes  over   programming   work   Clarity  of   understanding   as  basic  KW   skill   New  remarkable   evidences  of  human-­‐ caused  destruc0on   of  nature   Mixed  human-­‐machine   research  groups   coordinated  by  AI     Soc  technology  /  format   Policy  /  governance  mechanism   Risk  factor   Hard  technologies   ‘CC-­‐world’:  revision   of  legisla0on   governing  digital  IP   ‘Cogni0ve  barrier’:  self-­‐ organized  digitalized   knowledge  systems  non-­‐ comprehendable  by   human  mind   New  epistemology:   beyond  subject-­‐ object  division   Integra0on  of   ‘worldview’   provided  by  AI   Code  is  a   new  kind   of  text   Open   source   science   Source:  GEF  CA  session   25   Input  that  can  ini0ate     paradgimal  shic  
  26. 26. Key  trends  shaping  future  of  knowledge  creaQon   Net-­‐centric  knowledge  organizaQon:   •  Knowledge  work  gradually  moves  from  tradi0onal  ins0tu0ons  (limited  by  physical  space,   0me  of  work  and  number  of  par0cipa0ng  individuals)  into  network-­‐like  online  knowledge   crea0on  communi0es.  These  communi0es  start  to  build  new  kind  of  ‘knowledge   ecosystem’  (early  prototypes  of  which  are  represented  by  ArXIV,  PLoS  and  Wikipedia)  –   which  will  replace  tradi0onal  ins0tu0ons  of  knowledge  capturing  within  next  15-­‐20  years   •  Another  key  process  in  this  trend  is  that  knowledge  storage  becomes  increasingly  digital   (hence  “[digital]  code  is  a  new  text”).  An  immediate  consequence  is  that  knowledge  work   based  on  interconnected  &  interoperable  digital  models  of  reality  (e.g.  computa0on   models  of  biological  &  social  systems)  will  create  shared  computa0onal  approaches  for   ‘applied’  knowledge  (used  to  develop  technologies,  solu0ons  &  recommenda0ons)  and   ‘fundamental’  knowledge  (the  way  to  capture  fundamental  rela0ons).   •  The  speed  of  ‘new’  knowledge  crea0on  model  prolifera0on  will  be  con0ngent  on  how   (obsolete)  ins0tu0ons  of  intellectual  private  property  will  hold.  Wide  adop0on  of  models   such  as  Crea0ve  Commons  will  facilitate  the  transforma0on  of  knowledge  worker   community.   26  
  27. 27. Key  trends  shaping  future  of  knowledge  creaQon  (2)   Growing  complexity-­‐simplicity  tension:   •  Tension  between  increasingly  complex  knowledge  organiza0on  (required  to  help  guide   complex  socie0es)  and  barrier  to  complexity  comprehension  will  be  the  main  problem  of   knowledge  work  in  21st  century,  and  thus  simplifica0on  of  knowledge  becomes  a  great   risk.  It  is  necessary  to  seek  methods  that  help  deal  with  this  issue,  by  being  willing  to   embrace  the  complexity,  and  also  by  developing  new  ways  of  sharing  and  developing   shared  understanding   •  Also,  an  increased  complexity  –  including  increasingly  observable  feedback  from  nature  on   human  ac0on  (including  climate  change  effects  and  massive  destruc0on  of  marine  wildlife)   –  will  call  for  more  sophis0cated  modelling  of  feedback  loops,  especially  in  engineering.  An   already-­‐happening  paradigm  shic  from  technical  to  socio-­‐technical  systems  design  will  be   soon  followed  by  the  next  shic,  towards  natural-­‐socio-­‐technical  systems  design  that   monitors  feedback  loops  in  a  highly  integrated,  real-­‐0me  fashion.   •  Over  0me,  as  volume  &  complexity  of  available  knowledge  increases,  in  next  10-­‐15  years   AI  will  gradually  take  over  the  role  of  ‘integrator’  that  helps  to  summarize  theore0cal   founda0ons  of  a  discipline  or  the  domina0ng  ‘worldview’.  Within  the  next  10-­‐15  years   acer  that,  a  foreseeable  risk  is  that  knowledge  organiza0on  will  become  totally   incomprehensible  by  any  individual,  or  even  collec0ve,  human  mind.     •  The  need  for  new  ways  of  ‘knowing’  will  increase   27  
  28. 28. Key  trends  shaping  future  of  knowledge  creaQon  (3)   Rise  of  AI  assisted  research:   •  Ar0ficial  Intelligence  (AI)  will  play  increasingly  important  role  in  research  work.  AI  will   become  increasingly  self-­‐organized,  taking  over  not  only  data  analysis  but  also  low-­‐level   programming  work.  As  knowledge  representa0on  becomes  increasingly  digital,  ‘in   silico’  experimen0ng  will  ocen  complement  other  forms  of  research.   •  AI  will  become  a  fully  func0onal  member  of  research  teams,  helping  to  iden0fy   knowledge  ‘lacunas’  and  generate  research  hypotheses.   Re-­‐humanizaQon  of  knowledge  work:   •  Knowledge  work  has  long  suffered  from  ‘factory  style’  knowledge  crea0on  processes   that  alienate  researchers  from  research  interests  &  results.  In  addi0on,  the  dominant   ethics  passivized  studied  ‘objects’  (incl.  animals  &  human  beings)  and  detached  them   from  the  researcher.  In  future  knowledge  crea0on  work,  the  driving  force  will  be   researcher’s  passion  about  the  theme  of  study  –  thus  empathy  becomes  a  key  research   skill.  Adop0on  of  empathic  (mutually  transforming)  rela0on  between  ‘the  one  who   studies’  and  ‘the  one  being  studied’  may  eventually  lead  to  the  rise  of  a  new   epistemology  that  overcomes  the  division  between  the  object  and  the  subject.   28  
  29. 29. How  will  the  future  look  like  for     Knowledge  CreaQon  Models   •  Open  Source  science  becomes   increasingly  popular.  Knowledge  workers   gradually  migrate  from  tradi0onal   knowledge  crea0on  ins0tu0ons  towards   loosely  organized  network  knowledge   crea0on  communi0es.   •  AI  starts  playing  increasingly  important   role  in  all  aspects  of  research  process,   from  data  organiza0on  and  model   iden0fica0on  to  experiment  design  and   team  planning.   •  Soc  skills  of  knowledge  workers  become   increasingly  important,  including  new   ways  of  working  with  complexity  by   crea0ng  means  of  access  to  deeper   shared  understanding  of  complex   systems,  through  honoring  the  process   and  the  person(s)   •  Human  knowledge  work  focuses   on  more  ‘humanis0c’  aspects  of   cogni0on  that  involve  crea0vity,   passion,  openness,  and  personal   rela0on.  New  ways  of  ‘knowing’   are  on  the  rise       •  Global  knowledge  ecosystem   replaces  the  significant  share  of   tradi0onal  organiza0on  of   science.   •  Natural-­‐socio-­‐technical  systems   designs  help  monitor  feedback   loops  in  a  highly  integrated,  real-­‐ 0me  fashion.  AI  plays  significant   role  in  organiza0on  of  knowledge,   with  risk  of  moving  towards  the   level  beyond  human   comprehension   …  in  2020   …  in  2030   29  
  30. 30. Global     online     learning     plaorms   New  models     of  knowledge     crea0on  (‘post-­‐ science’)   Learning  for   emerging   social     prac0ces     Theme  3:  Learning  for  Emerging  Social  PracQces   Some  ques0ons  discussed  by   the  group:   •  What  new  skills  will  be   demanded  in  the   transforming  21st  century   society,  and  how  should   these  be  taught?     •  How  will  competence  based   model  look  in  lifelong   learning?  What  models  will   support  lifelong  personal   development?   •  What  will  be  the   organiza0on  of  learning   spaces,  and  the  change  in   role  of  teacher  &  learner?   Local     learning     ecosystems     30  
  31. 31. Mapping  future  of  learning  for     emerging  social  pracQces   2015   2020   2030   Soc  technology  /  format   Policy  /  governance  mechanism                      Whole  person  learning                  Growing  demand  for  ‘future  skills’                      Shic  of  decision-­‐making  to  students:  student  voice+choice   Standard  curriculum     focused  on  existen0al   competencies   Student-­‐led  learning   opportuni0es   Self-­‐guided  learners   genera0on                      Shic  from  tradi0onal  ins0tu0ons  to  learning  communi0es   Unschooling   communi0es   Future   awareness  as   universal  skill   Assessment  models   unable  to  measure   desirable  skills  of  21   century  ci0zens   Wearables  for  personal   development  &  brain  fitness   Project-­‐based  learning   as  ‘ini0a0on’  into  self-­‐ guided  learning   Collabora0ve   peer-­‐to-­‐peer   online  learning  &   mentonring   From  subject-­‐   to  topic-­‐based   educa0on   Playifica0on   of  educa0on   Mindfulness  training  as   part  of  standard   curriculum   Skills  for   lifelong   health   Source:  GEF  CA  session   Early  age   entrepreneurship   Policies  that  encourage   self-­‐guided  learning   Schools  of  thinking   methods   Learners’   empowerment   through  shared   stories  of  learning   Prac0ces  of   vulnerability   Empowerment   of  feminine   31   Input  that  can  ini0ate     paradgimal  shic  
  32. 32. Key  trends  that  shape  the  future  of     learning  for  emerging  social  pracQces   ShiZ  of  decision-­‐making  to  students:  student  voice+choice:   •  Recogni0on  of  student  voice  (and  shic  of  decision  making  to  students)  is  one  of  the  main   transforma0onal  challenges  for  the  secondary  &  ter0ary  educa0on,  to  which  many  administrators,   teachers,  and  families  (and  even  some  students  themselves)  resist.  The  gradual  introduc0on  of   student-­‐led  learning  opportuni0es  is,  however,  inevitable  –  since  we  can  become  ‘learners  for  life’  only   through  the  regular  prac0ce  of  self-­‐guided  learning  (and  the  skill  of  lifelong  learning  becomes  crucial  to   cope  with  21  century  challenges).   •  Project-­‐based  learning  (PBL)  is  among  one  of  the  highly  efficient  tools  to  ‘ini0ate’  students  into  self-­‐ guided  learning  (as  it  is  driven  by  student’s  own  interests  and  choices)  –  and  so  it  will  be  increasingly   applied  across  all  levels  of  educa0on.  Policies  that  encourage  self-­‐guided  learning  (including   regula0ons  that  allow  more  flexible  choice  of  educa0onal  providers)  will  be  widely  adopted  in   countries  with  developed  educa0onal  systems.   ShiZ  from  tradiQonal  insQtuQons  to  learning  communiQes:   •  Horizontal  /  network-­‐structured  learning  communi0es  start  playing  increasingly  important  role  in   learning,  offering  programs  &  curriculums  more  relevant  to  student  needs.  Part  of  their  role  for  learners   is  to  unschool,  to  remove  nega0ve  ‘programming’  created  by  ‘industrial  educa0on’.  Learning   communi0es  can  offer  educa0on  centered  around  students’  interests  and  real-­‐world  problems  (i.e.   topic-­‐based  educa0on  instead  of  subject-­‐based).  ‘Unstructuring’  of  exis0ng  schools  can  be  part  of  this   process.   •  Learning  communi0es  can  be  created  with  a  cause  (e.g.  focused  on  social  ac0vism  or  specific  needs  of  a   local  community),  and  thus  collabora0ve  ac0on  can  guide  the  collec0ve  learning.  While  some  of  this   learning  may  happen  face-­‐to-­‐face,  it  may  also  be  conducted  in  peer-­‐to-­‐peer  online  networks  (also  see   Theme  1).  In  addi0on  to  peer-­‐to-­‐peer  learning,  P2P  mentoring  will  be  an  important  part  of  future   learning  landscape   32  
  33. 33. Growing  demand  for  future  skills:   •   For  self-­‐guided  learners,  it  will  be  crucial  to  build  personalized  long-­‐term  development   strategies  and  to  obtain  meta-­‐skills  that  will  be  suitable  in  various  professional  and  personal   circumstances.     Among  such  meta-­‐skills  are:     •  future  awareness  (the  ability  to  understand  variety  of  future  scenarios  and  create   individual  and  collec0ve  strategies);     •  entrepreneurship  (the  ability  to  ini0ate  &  organize  new  projects,  social  &  commercial   ini0a0ves)  that  should  be  taught  from  the  early  age;     •  diverse  thinking  methods  for  beber  comprehension  of  complex  problems  (incl.   mathema0cal,  systemic,  ar0s0c,  poe0c  etc.)   •  mindfulness,  that  should  also  be  taught  from  early  age  &  become  part  of  the  standard   curriculum   •  and,  among  the  most  important,  various  skills  that  help  maintain  lifelong  physical,   mental  &  social  health  (as  well  as  skills  for  maintaining  personal,  family  &  community   health)   •  Playifica0on  (as  dis0nguished  from  gamifica0on)  becomes  increasingly  important  in  gesng   skills  of  the  future  as  it  allows  ‘living  through’  studied  topics  instead  of  learning  about  them   (story-­‐dwelling,  not  story-­‐telling)   Key  trends  that  shape  the  future  of     learning  for  emerging  social  pracQces  (2)   33  
  34. 34. Key  trends  that  shape  the  future  of     learning  for  emerging  social  pracQces  (3)   Whole  person  educaQon:   •  In  21  century  educa0on,  limited  focus  of  industrial  educa0on  on  the  development  of   cogni0ve  abili0es  and  professional  skills  only  will  be  seen  as  highly  deficient.  Instead,  a  call   is  made  to  develop  ‘humane’  abili0es,  including  emo0onal  and  social  intelligence,   crea0vity,  and  skills  that  support  collabora0ve  work.    This  process  will  be  enhanced  by  the   increased  recogni0on  of  irrelevance  of  standardized  learning  achievement  measurement   (including  tests  of  cogni0ve  abili0es),  and  the  need  for  more  ‘holis0c’  assessment  metrics   that  embeds  various  aspects  of  human  mental,  physical,  and  emo0onal  development.   •  Whole  person  educa0on  should  recognize  quali0es  neglected  in  Western  ‘white-­‐male’-­‐ centered  civiliza0on,  including  the  support  to  prac0ce  of  vulnerability  (which  helps   promote  openness  and  sincerity  within  the  society)  and  recogni0on  /  empowerment  of   the  feminine  within  each  of  us   •  In  lifelong  educa0on,  a  gradual  shic  of  pedagogical  focus  will  occur  from  skills  to  meta-­‐ skills  (e.g.  thinking  methods,  crea0vity  etc.)  and  from  meta-­‐skills  towards  existen0al  skills   (that  determine  our  long-­‐term  ‘strategies  of  living  our  lives’).  Within  15-­‐20  years,  some  of   existen0al  skills  may  become  a  focus  of  standard  curriculum  in  developed  countries.   •  Whole  person  educa0on  key  principle  is  3H:  Heart  on,  Hands  on,  and  Head  on!     (Also:  we  might  want  to  add  ‘learning  with  the  gut’,  i.e.  an0cipatory/  intui0ve/  sensing   aspects  of  learning  to  this).   34  
  35. 35. How  will  the  future  look  like  for     learning  for  emerging  social  pracQces   …  in  2020   …  in  2030   •  Schools  &  universi0es  increasingly  offer   student-­‐led  learning  opportuni0es  and   encourage  self-­‐guided  learning.   •  Collabora0ve  learning  communi0es  (with  a   cause)  provide  robust  alterna0ves  to   conven0onal  educa0on  and  help  in   ‘unschooling’   •  No0on  of  ‘whole  person  learning’  gets   limited  recogni0on  in  educa0on,  and   providers  outside  conven0onal  educa0on   system  increasingly  provide  opportuni0es   for  holis0c  educa0on  –  including  educa0on   technology  companies  that  provide  gadgets   for  personal  development.     •  Some  ‘future  skills’  enter  into  conven0onal   or  complimentary  educa0on,  including   future  awareness  and  entrepreneurship  for   all  groups  of  learners.   •  Self-­‐guided  learning  becomes  a   norm,  not  an  excep0on   •  Collabora0ve  learning   communi0es  play  significant  role   in  lifelong  educa0on  –  and  their   ‘horizontal’  protocols  enter  into   conven0onal  educa0on  as  a  new   norm   •  ‘Holis0c’  paradigm  in  educa0on  is   generally  accepted,  and   existen0al  competences  become   the  focus  of  curriculum  for  life-­‐ long  learners   •  Meta-­‐skills  such  as  mindfulness   and  healthy  lifelong  living   become  part  of  the  standard   curriculum  in  developed   countries   35  
  36. 36. ShiZ  from  competences  to  existenQal  competences   Context  /  domain-­‐ specific   competences   Professional  knowledge  &  skills   (e.g.  anatomy  &  surgery  techniques  for  a  surgeon)   General   competences   Meta-­‐competences   Generally  shared  skills  &  knowledge  that  create   basis  for  collec0ve  work  and  division  of  labor,  e.g.   skill  of  reading,  wri0ng,  calcula0on  etc.   Thinking  models  &  technologies   Crea0vity  &  esthe0c  capabili0es      etc.   Existen0al   competences   ‘The  ul0mate  answer  to  ‘why  we  do  what  we  do’  (i.e.   system  of  priori0es)   Our  ability  to  connect  with  ourselves  and  others  on   existen0al  level  (i.e.  ability  to  experience  joy  and  love)   Ability  to  stay  healthy     relevance  increases  over  life  0mespan   Type  of  competence   Examples  of  competence   Average  lifeQme   Months  to  few   years   Years  to   decades   Decades  to   life0me   In  move  towards  lifelong  learning,  educa0onal  systems  should  take  into  considera0on  not   only  competences  but  meta-­‐competences  and  existen0al  competences  –  fundamental  not   only  to  our  professional  and  social  success  but  to  quality  of  our  life.   Source:  GEF  analysis   36  
  37. 37. Problems  in  the  exisQng  set  up  of  educaQonal   systems  that  can  block  or  threaten  emergence  of   new  learning  ecosystems   •  Over-­‐exploited  teachers  (demanding  to  much  from  teachers  that  are  poorly  trained   for  current  workload  and  are  paid  lible)   •  Conveyer  belt  teaching  (teaching  teachers  'quickly  and  crudely',  believing  teachers   are  just  another  type  of  service-­‐providers  and  don't  need  special  socio-­‐emo0onal   prepara0on  to  start  performing  their  ac0vity)   •  ‘Young  cheap  teachers’  (as  more  and  more  mature  teachers  find  it  hard  to  support   themselves  and  their  families  given  their  small  salary,  we  see  more  and  more  young   incompetent  teachers  (most  commonly  poorly  trained  according  to  old   expecta0ons)  taking  over  the  places)   •  Too  many  non  teaching  teachers  in  the  system  (a  lot  of  administrators  and   educa0onal  leaders  have  never  had  teaching  experience)   •  Resistance  to  spiritual  educa0on  (on  behalf  of  secular  community/government  that   confuse  religious  and  spiritual  educa0on)   •  Wri0ng  off  affec0ve  experience  (eg.  lack  of  recogni0on  of  the  affects  of  trauma)   •  Stakeholders  invest  in  technology  but  not  in  teaching  teachers  or  how  to  use  it  well   (with  the  growing  EdTech  market  we  are  all  facing  immense  investments  into   technology  and  very  lible  investment  into  alive  teachers,  who  are  s0ll  the  main   'source'  of  knowledge.     37  
  38. 38. Global     online     learning     plaorms   New  models     of  knowledge     crea0on  (‘post-­‐ science’)   Emerging   social     prac0ces     Local     learning     ecosystems     Theme  4:  Local  learning  ecosystems:     resilient  ciQes  &  communiQes   Some  ques0ons  discussed  by   the  group:   •  Educa0on  for  ‘family   lifecycle’   •  Educa0on  for  personal  &   collec0ve     health  /  wellness  /  well-­‐ being   •  Urban  resilience  through   ‘communi0es  with  a  cause’   •  Transforma0on  of  public   spaces  &  role  in  learning     Learning  for   emerging   social     prac0ces     38  
  39. 39. Mapping  future  of     local  learning  ecosystems   2015   2020   2030   Source:  GEF  CA  session   Concentrated  urbaniza0on:  growing  megaci0es,  shrinking  small  ci0es   BigData  helps   organize  city   processes                      Growth  of  self-­‐organizing  communi0es  through  ‘third-­‐space’   Starbucks   Agora   Spontaneous  &   collabora0ve  public  art   encourages  interac0on   between  strangers   ‘Idle  space   exchange’  for   public  needs                      Learning  spillover   Makers  &  pop-­‐up   entrepreneurs  help   solve  urban  problems   Urban  farming   Evolu0onary   learning   communi0es  as  hubs   of  urban  learning  &   development                      Increased  divides:  economic,  ethnical,  religious,  …   Media  ac0vism   to  increase   awareness   Fear  &  anxiety  related  to   diversity  lead  to   reac0onary  conserva0sm  &   protec0onism   Skill  /  experience  obtained   in  community  is   recognized  as  a  degree   Ci0es  help  create  natural   environment  &  reduce   effects  of  climate  change   ‘Digital  Athens’:   robo0cs  &  smart   environments  replace   human  urban  workers   Soc  technology  /  format   Policy  /  governance  mechanism   Risk  factor   Hard  technologies   Family   community   learning   Connec0vity  redefines   families:  mul0ple  /   shared  families  etc.   Peacemaking  /   media0on  as  a   basic  skill   39   Risk  of  dehumaniza0on   of  society  due  to   technology  media0on   Community   health  as  focus   of  community   learning   Urban  naviga0on   through  learning   opportuni0es   Learning   Ecosystem   Maturity   Metrics   ‘Learner   Maker’   Spaces  
  40. 40. Key  trends  shaping  future  of     local  learning  ecosystems   Concentrated  urbanizaQon  -­‐  growing  megaciQes,  shrinking  small  ciQes:   •   Urbaniza0on  in  21  century  is  coupled  with  city  concentra0on,  as  people  move  from  small  ci0es  into   megaci0es.  The  richness  of  megacity  educa0onal  landscape  allows  for  emergence  of  full-­‐scale  ‘learning   ecosystems’  that  would  support  educa0on  of  a  whole  person  throughout  life0me.   •  Sustainability  of  megaci0es  will  require  applica0on  of  various  technologies  that  would  increase  safety   &  comfort  of  the  city,  increase  the  produc0vity  of  urban  work,  and  redefine  city  rela0on  with  the   natural  environment:  robo0cs,  smart  environment  &  Big  Data  for  execu0on  &  coordina0on  of  city   processes;  healthy  food  produc0on  through  urban  micro-­‐agriculture;  new  resource  &  waste   management  processes  that  can  make  ci0es  the  source  of  clean  air  /  water,  fer0le  soil,  restored   species  of  plants  &  animals.  These  prac0ces  of  sustainability  should  be  supported  by  community   learning  (e.g.  learning  about  sustainable  food  produc0on  as  ‘learning  through  ea0ng’)   •  Efficient  management  of  city  resources  would  allow  more  public  spaces  be  used  for  learning  &   interac0on,  allowing  communi0es  to  create  more  public  good.  Idle  spaces  can  be  shared  through   public  ‘exchanges’   Growth  of  self-­‐organizing  communiQes  through  ‘third-­‐space’:   •  Public  spaces  become  venues  where  communi0es  are  established  &  maintained.  ‘Starbucks  Agora’  is   an  exemplary  format  that  encourages  local  communi0es  to  use  cafes  and  other  ‘third-­‐spaces’  to   connect,  share  knowledge  &  skills  (in  form  of  public  lectures,  leisure  clubs  etc.),  and  discuss   important  community  mabers  through  various  forms  of  par0cipatory  dialogues.   •  Self-­‐organized  city  communi0es  can  aim  to  solve  local  problems  through  project-­‐based  problem-­‐ oriented  formats  such  as  local  hackathons,  maker  movement  ac0vi0es,  pop-­‐up  entrepreneurship  etc.   •  Spontaneous  &  collabora0ve  public  art    becomes  an  important  vehicle  in  removing  barriers  between   individuals  &  communi0es  and  engaging  strangers  into  dialogues  and  collec0ve  ac0ons.   •  Essen0ally,  communi0es  become  the  places  to  prevent  dehumaniza0on  of  society  that  is  induced  by   intensified  applica0on  of  technologies   40  
  41. 41. Key  trends  shaping  future  of     local  learning  ecosystems  (2)   Learning  spillover  –  from  formal  to  informal,  from  specialized  to  omnipresent:   •  As  city  increasingly  becomes  a  learning  space,  new  tools  will  support  individual  &  collec0ve  learning.   Among  the  most  important  ones  are  naviga0on  tools  which  will  couple  personal  learning  trajectories   (or  interests  /  preferences)  with  learning  opportuni0es  that  exist  in  the  proximity  of  a  learner.   •  In  the  longer  run,  various  elements  of  community-­‐based  learning  would  integrate  into  Evolu0onary   Learning  Communi0es  that  may  become  ‘hubs’  of  urban  learning  &  development  for  individuals,   families,  and  groups  (a  prototype  of  such  ‘hubs’  are  ‘Learner  Maker  Spaces’  for  new  models  of   learning)   •  Policies  that  recognize  skills  /  knowledge  obtained  in  community-­‐based  learning  as  a  formal  degree  will   help  legi0mize  and  increase  popularity  of  new  forms  of  educa0on.   •  Learning  Ecosystem  Maturity  Metrics,  a  system  of  indicators  indica0ng  compara0ve  development  of   local  learning  ecosystems  (similar  to  Technology  Readiness  metrics  or  LEED  cer0fica0on  system),  can   be  used  to  help  NGOs  and  regional  administra0ons  to  understand  how  to  improve  learning  processes   in  their  local  ecosystems  and  to  create  increasingly  resilient  communi0es.  Increased  divides  –  economic,  ethnical,  religious,  …:   •  Ci0es,  and  especially  megaci0es,  due  to  their  high  diversity,  ocen  become  the  source  of  tensions.  In   response  to  the  increasingly  complexity  of  urban  life,  some  socie0es  try  to  conserve  themselves,  restrict   the  inflow  of  variety  and  even  launch  ‘controlled  archaiza0on’  –  which  moves  the  problem  to  next   systemic  level  and  poten0ally  aggravates  it.  This  may  lead  to  increased  instances  of  violence  &  social   injus0ce  directed  at  minority  or  s0gma0zed  groups.  ‘New  media’  can  become  the  source  of  urban   ac0vism  that  responds  to  such  processes.  Conflict  media0on  &  peacemaking  may  become  widely   distributed  skills  to  help  prevent  community  &  family  violence.   •  Families  are  undergoing  a  major  transforma0on  that  is  accelerated  by  connec0vity  that  both  builds   barriers  within  the  conven0onal  family  and  allows  for  new  associa0ons.  Par0cipa0on  in  mul0ple  or   shared  families  becomes  widespread,  and  ra0onale  of  the  family  is  redefined,  shicing  from  kin  loyalty   and  economic  bonds  to  associa0ons  based  on  shared  values  and  existen0al  interests.  Families  become   collec0ve  learners  that  increasingly  engage  in  mul0-­‐genera0onal  community-­‐based  learning.   41  
  42. 42. How  will  the  future  look  like  for     local  learning  ecosystems   …  in  2020   …  in  2030   •  Public  spaces  and  ‘third-­‐places’  become   venues  of  community-­‐based  learning.  Idle   spaces  are  increasingly  used  for  collec0ve   learning  needs.  Public  art  projects   encourage  people  to  explore  and  remove   barriers  between  individuals  /   communi0es   •  Instant  formats  for  community   interac0on,  such  as  ‘Starbucks  Agoras’   and  urban  hackathons,  help  connect  &   empower  local  learners  and  solve  local   community  problems   •  Tools  for  urban  learner  naviga0on  help   connect  personal  learning  interests  with   the  mul0tude  of  learning  opportuni0es   offered  within  communi0es,  events,   ins0tu0ons  etc.   •  Technology-­‐enriched  ci0es  redefine   the  organiza0on  of  urban  living  and   the  rela0on  between  the  city  and   Nature   •  ‘Digital  Athens’  -­‐  new  balance  of   work/leisure  is  enabled  by  robo0cs   &  smart  environment   •  Learning  is  interconnected  with  a   quest  for  health  and  quality  of  life.   There  is  a  strong  emphasis  on   individual  and  community  health   •  Families  redefine  themselves  on   the  grounds  of  shared  values  and   existen0al  interests,  and  new   families  become  mul0-­‐genera0onal   community  learners   42  
  43. 43. EvoluQonary  learning  communiQes:     hubs  for  learning,  inquiry,  design  &  acQon   43   Evolu0onary   learning   community   (ELC)   Family  life   (children-­‐ elders)   Ecology   Food   systems   Leadership   /  personal   develop-­‐ ment   Physical  /   emo0onal   health   Spirituality   Art  /   cultural   expression   Economy  /   entrepre-­‐ neurship   Evolu0onary  learning  communi0es  are  places  where  we  can  do  the  work  to   prevent  the  dehumaniza0on  of  society   Source:  GEF  CA  session  
  44. 44. Global     online     learning     plaorms   New  models     of  knowledge     crea0on  (‘post-­‐ science’)   Learning  for   emerging   social     prac0ces     Local     learning     ecosystems     Governance  of  Global  Learning  Ecosystem     &  Shared  Projects   System  of   governance   +  systemic   innova0ons   44  
  45. 45. Architecture  of  global  educaQonal  ecosystem   `   Global  learning   pla[orms  (GLPs)   •  Global  content  is  crowdsourced  in  real-­‐0me  through   collabora0ve  crea0vity  &  computer-­‐assisted  knowing  and   learning  environments   •  Niche  players  in  global  content  provision  integrated  by   integral  providers  that  support  (standard)  individual   learning  (&  career)  trajectories   •  Meta-­‐plaorm  built  on  the  principles  defined  by   ‘Declara0on  of  Learners  Rights’   ‘Meta-­‐city’   City  /  area   educaQonal   ecosystem   •  Local  (learner  focused)  content  &  process   •  Local  educa0onal  providers  integrated  into  personalized   learning  ‘pathways’  (that  may  also  be  physical  pathways)   •  Urban  public  spaces  becoming  educa0onal:     e.g.  Starbucks  Agoras   •  ‘Points  of  connec0on’  with  GLPs   •  Global  corpora0ons  with  shared  prac0ces   •  Interna0onal  movements  (e.g.  Slow  Food  or  Rotary)   •  Educa0onal  franchises,  incl.  social  change  plaorms  (e.g.   Impact  Hub,  Techstars,  …)   •  Interna0onal  online  /  offline  art  projects   Source:  GEF  analysis   45  
  46. 46. (Ethical)  principles  of  global  educaQonal  ecosystem   1.  ‘Technologies  for  people  –  not  people  for  technologies’:  future  educa0onal  systems   cannot  be  built  with  new  technological  architecture  alone  (as  it  happened  with  Internet   search,  social  media  interac0on,  or  personalized  helpers  like  Siri).  It  should  also  consider   •  Values  &  principles  defined  by  the  ‘Declara0on  of  Learner  Rights’  (incl.  the   principle  of  primacy  of  learner  demands  &  interests)   •  Social  design  of  new  educa0on  based  on  systemic  pedagogical  &  psychological   research  (incl.  ‘digital  pedagogy’)   2.  If  the  transi0on  to  true  life  long  learning  happens:   •  The  objec0ve  of  educa0on  should  not  be  ‘acquisi0on  of  skills  &  knowledge’,  but   support  to  life  long  human  development  (transi0on  from  competencies  to  meta-­‐ competencies,  and  from  meta-­‐competencies  to  existen0al  competencies)   •  Educa0on  should  become  focused  on  whole  person,  i.e.  it  should  help  develop  not   only  our  cogni0ve  abili0es  and  ‘knowledge  base’,  but  also  our  bodies,  our  social  &   emo0onal  intelligence  –  and  this  development  should  be  supported  by  various   educa0onal  technologies   •  Quality  of  the  learning  and  related  human  feelings,  such  as  love,  joy,  trust,  and   acceptance,  should  be  placed  at  the  heart  of  educa0onal  processes.   3.  Community  (of  prac00oners  driven  by  shared  values)  becomes  a  central  space  in   knowledge  acquisi0on  and  knowledge  crea0on  (that  in  the  future  become  elements  of   the  same  process)   46  Source:  GEF  analysis  
  47. 47. GEF:  possible  strategic  iniQaQves  that  may   accelerate  transiQon  towards  ‘new’  educaQon   2015   2016   2018  2017   Declara0on   of  Learner   Rights   Meta-­‐plaorm:   interoperable  plaorm   between  GLPs     Granddaughter  of  All   Demos:  advanced  tools  for   collabora0ve  learning  are   created  to  commemorate   50  years  since  Doug   Engerlbard’s  ‘Mother  of  All   Demos’   Learning  Ecosystem  Maturity   Metrics  on  city  /  region  level   Network  of  ‘Learner   Maker  Spaces’:  hubs   for  urban  learning  that   help  various  forms  of   community  learning   47   Challenges  &   accelera0on  programs   to  catalyze  systemic   innova0on  in  educa0on   Mapping  of   systemic   innovators   Source:  GEF  CA  session  
  48. 48. 48   Learner  Maker  Space:  a  hub  for  urban  learning   ecosystem  innovaQons   Accelerators  for  learning  &  social   innovaQon:   •  Ed  tech  startups   •  Social  entrepreneurship  projects   •  Projects  of  change  in  schools  /   universi0es  (main  ques0on:  is  it   possible  to  capitalize  this  type  of   projects  to  make  accelera0on   sustainable?)   Laboratories  for  social  &  learning   innovaQon,  e.g.:   •  Gamefica0on  /  playifica0on  &   game  (play)  design   •  Project-­‐based  learning   •  Future  awareness   •  Design  thinking   Exchange  of  best  pracQces    between  innovators:   •  Innova0ve  (e.g.  ‘free’)  schools   •  Fablabs  &  maker  spaces   •  Startup  accelerators   •  Live  game  developers,  etc.   Space  for  experiments  on  new  &   breakthrough  innova0ons  in  urban   learning,  e.g.:   •  Maker  classes  &  hackathons   •  Social  innova0on  ‘living  labs’   •  Foresights  &  vision  building   exercises  for  the  community,  etc.   Network  of  ‘hubs’  across   the  world   VC  funds  inves0ng  in  new   projects   Learner  Maker  Space   Agenda  of  local  /  regional   communi0es  &  govt   Demand  from  local   schools  &  universi0es   Source:  GEF  CA   session  and   GEF  interviews  
  49. 49. PART  3:  HOW  WILL  NEW  EDUCATION  UNFOLD  –     POSSIBLE  SCENARIOS   49  
  50. 50. Internal  inerQa  of  exisQng  system  is  the  main   challenge  in  creaQng  ‘new’  educaQon   ‘Tradi0onal’   educa0on   systems       ‘New’   educa0on       Blockage:  exis0ng  system   design,  although  inefficient,   is  based  on  several   interdependent  locked-­‐in   arrangements  (e.g.  degree  &   cer0fica0on  system,  teacher   qualifica0ons  &  job  market   arrangements,  etc.)  that  has   high  ‘reassembly’  cost  that   no  individual  agent  (not  even   government)  is  ready  to  pay   ‘Reassembled’  design:     •  Network-­‐based   dynamically  evolving     eco-­‐system  of  mul0ple   types  of  providers   •  Supports  lifelong  learning   •  Supports  learning   everywhere,  all  the  0me   Source:  GEF  analysis  (based  on  interviews  during  GEF  CA)   ?   2015   2035   Current  design:     •  Hierarchical  system  of   educa0onal  ‘levels’  largely   controlled  by  na0onal   governments   •  Focuses  on  socializing  &   professional  skills  during   first  15-­‐25  years  of  life   •  Learning  happens  in   specific  loca0ons  in   specific  0mes  only   50  
  51. 51. What  are  (some)  key  roles  that  ‘new’  educaQon   providers  have  to  undertake?   51   EducaQonal  insQtuQon     (school  /  university)  as  ‘unified’  provider   Development  of  ‘world  view’   Assessment   Integrated  learning  /  all-­‐round   development   Socializa0on  /  ci0zenship  training   Voca0onal  training  /     real  life  projects   Learning  plaorms   Fab/hack-­‐labs  &  maker  spaces   Clubs  /  communi0es   Integra0on  providers   Independent  cer0fica0on  systems   …   ‘New’  providers  in  ecosystem   Func0ons  of  tradi0onal  ‘integrated’  educa0onal  providers  can  be   ‘unbundled’  by  networks  of  ‘new’  providers  within  learning  ecosystems   Source:  GEF  analysis  (based  on  interviews  during  GEF  CA)  
  52. 52. New  integrators:  who  are  the  candidates?   52   In  the  new  (network)  economy,  ecosystems  are  built  around  ‘integrators’  that  serve  as  ‘entry   point’  to  end  users  (e.g.  Google  in  searching,  Facebook  in  social  media,  AppStore  in  smartphone   applica0ons,  etc.).  In  ‘new’  educa0on,  such  integrators  must  become  long-­‐term  providers  of   personalized  learning  trajectories   Personal  learning   trajectory   Candidate  type  1:  ‘Long  game’  providers   Candidate  type  2:  Global  learning  plaorms   Candidate  type  3:     Career  management  &  talent  investment   Candidate  type  4:     Personal  development  plaorms   Why:  game  developers  &  toy  companies  legi0mize   their  increasing  access  to  children  &  adult  playing  0me   by  providing  them  ‘useful’  educa0onal  services   What:  game  universes  &  robo0c  toys  with  long  playing   scenarios  that  have  educa0on  components   Candidate  companies:  Blizzard,  MS  Xbox,  LEGO   Why:  ‘repackaging’  of  academic  &  voca0onal   knowledge  into  online  content  championed  by  top   universi0es  &  major  training  companies   What:  various  professional  cer0ficates  &  academic   degrees   Candidate  companies:  Coursera,  EdX   Why:  providers  of  personal  development  seek  long-­‐ term  engagement  with  prac00oners   What:  long-­‐term  personal  development  scenarios   enhanced  by  gadgets  (e.g.  biofeedback)   Candidate  companies:  WildDivine  (this  is  most   underdeveloped  sector)   Why:  professional  social  media  extends  into  career   management  (personalized  educa0on  &career   trajectories)  &  helps  companies  invest  in  talent   What:  personalized  educa0on  &  training  to  manage   career  opportuni0es  &  income  stream   Candidate  companies:  LinkedIn,  Monster   Social  media  (e.g.  Facebook  or   Twiber  feeds):  educa0onal   scenarios  as  a  part  of  personally   filtered  informa0on  flow   Geotarge;ng  (e.g.  Foursquare):   educa0onal  trajectories  as  a   part  of  personal  pathways   through  local  areas   Source:  GEF  analysis  
  53. 53. Stage  1:  support  to  exis0ng   system   Up  ;ll  2010s   Stage  2:  system  expansion   2010s-­‐2020s   Stage  3:  emergence  of  ecosystem   Late  2020s  and  onwards   Educa0onal  system  largely   dominated  by  tradi0onal  ins0tu0ons   (schools  /  colleges  /  universi0es),   while  new  providers  focus  on   suppor0ng  services   How  can  ‘beauQful  excepQons’  become  ‘new   systemic  norm’:  a  possible  scenario   Majority  of  ed  tech  companies  that   see  schools  &  universi0es  as  their   target  market  and  work  on  specific   improvements  for  exis0ng   educa0onal  processes:  e.g.   Blackboard,  Promethean  etc.   Providers  that  seek  to  create   addi0onal  skills  /  knowledge   outside  or  adjacent  to  standard   curriculum:  e.g.  EdModo,   PresenceLearning,  Lego   Mindstorm  clubs  etc.   New  educa0onal  providers   abempt  to  take  over  parts  of  the   key  educa0onal  processes  in  areas   that  are  complimentary  to  exis0ng   schools  /  universi0es   New  educa0onal  providers  can   support  all-­‐round  process  on  par   with  exis0ng  educa0onal  system   (and  can  provide  new   func0onality  such  as   personalized  learning)   None  of  the  exis0ng  players  at  the   moment;  mul0ple  candidate   technologies  exist  (global  learning   plaorms  such  as  Coursera  and   EdCast,  etc.)   53   Source:     GEF     analysis  
  54. 54. Possible  architecture  of  future  educaQonal   ecosystems   54   Global  learning  plaorm  &     learning  trajectory  management  system   1st  Qer  suppliers:     ‘package’  content  &  provide  standard     educa0on-­‐related  services   Integrator:  provides  &  coordinates   integrated  learning  experiences   MOOC   provider   Cer0fica0on   plaorm   Simulator   provider   2nd  Qer  suppliers:   provide  original  content  &     support  ‘packaging’     Company  /  community   holding  specific   knowledge  /  skill   Simula0on   socware   developer   Future  educa0onal  ecosystems  will  likely  model  the  design  of  other  network-­‐based   industries:  in  this  case,  ecosystems  will  be  clustered  around  integrators  that  coordinate  their   supplier  systems,  organized  into  0ers.  Various  type  of  educa0on  providers  and  ed  tech   companies  will  need  to  define  their  role  in  rela0on  to  future  integrators.   Source:  GEF  analysis  
  55. 55. 55   Key  challenge  remaining:     public  vs.  private  changemaking?   While  it  is  highly  possible  that  private  and  independent  providers  are  capable  of  rebuilding  or   upgrading  many  elements  of  educa0onal  systems,  educa0on  also  serves  societal  needs  and  therefore   should  retain  public  elements.  However,  it  remains  an  open  discussion  whether  public  providers  are   able  to  lead  the  transforma0on,  or  if  they  are  going  to  respond  to  pressures  created  by  providers   outside  the  conven0onal  system.  Also,  the  role  of  regulators  themselves  is  likely  to  shic  from  direct   governance  to  cul0va0on  of  ecosystems.  Some  ideas  from  par0cipants  of  GEF  California  are  quoted   below:     “Governments  can  contribute  to  the  accelera;on   of  innova;ons  in  educa;on  through  the   investment  and  carrying  out  of  high-­‐level   research.  Na;onal  organiza;on  can  also  help   build  bridges  between  different  parts  of  the   system.”  –  Olivier  Brechard   “Scenario  [of  change  driven  by  private  providers   outside  educa;on  system]  raises  concerning   ques;ons  about  the  degree  of  democra;c  control   or  influence  upon  such  changes;  and  their  impact   upon  (the  already  fragile)  effort  toward  equity.  (..)   If  transforma;on  is  to  come  from  within  educa;on   systems  themselves,  it  will  depend  upon  the   emergence  of  a  different  kind  of  leadership.”   Valerie  Hannon  (2015)   “You  can’t  govern  free  and  open  learning  resources,  it’s  an   unstoppable  force  and  it’s  the  most  important  thing  that   happened  to  the  world  in  the  last  20  years.  [However,  i]n  the   foreseeable  future,  the  government  will  and  should  retain  the   responsibility  for  cer;fica;on  of  professionals.  But  it  has  to   remain  dynamic  so  that  we  con;nue  asking  ourselves  a   ques;on  what  people  of  a  certain  profession  need  to  know   and  be  able  to  do.”  -­‐  Tom  Vander  Ark   “One  of  the  most  important  things  is  peace.  All  countries  that   are  not  in  peace  have  no  chance  to  par;cipate  in  global   educa;on  system.”  -­‐  Victor  Van  Rij   “Technology  and  policies  are  closely  linked.  Government  may   decide  to  build  educa;onal  tools  and  content  and  to  make   them  available  as  public  good.”  –  Francois  Taddei  
  56. 56. We  have  only  just  begun  the  process  of   discovering  and  inven0ng  the  new   organiza0onal  forms  that  will  inhabit   the  21st  Century.  We  need  the  courage   to  let  go  of  the  old  world,  to  relinquish   most  of  what  we  have  cherished,  to   abandon  our  interpreta0ons  about  what   does  and  doesn’t  work.        Margaret  Wheatley   The  future  of  educaQon:  scratching  the  surface     “ ” 56  
  57. 57. Scratching  the  surface  …   57  
  58. 58. APPENDIX   58  
  59. 59. ComposiQon  of  the  ParQcipants  Group   Regional  representaQon   Male  /  female   OrganizaQonal  representaQon   Analysis  based  on  the  list  of  registered  par0cipants  (N=82)   Around  15-­‐20  addi0onal  par0cipants  from  Global  Technology  Symposium   joined  several  of  the  sessions   *  Innova0on  &   Change  Plaorms   are  various  NGOs   that  work  towards   systemic   transforma0on  of   educa0on  on   regional  or  global   level   *   59  
  60. 60. Global  EducaQon  Futures  California:     Shared  Values  Space   Learning innovation Time Meaningful Health- oriented Presence Gift and heartbreak Liberating Resilience Creativity Self- development Strategy Commitment / responsibility Critical thinking Trust Purpose Joy/ play Community Equity Being learners all the time Love Curiosity Shared by more than 1 group Shared by all groups Values nominated only in 1 group Meritocracy Discovery Value of roles Value of personality Learning journey/ mapping Transparency MentoringAppreciation Named  by  par0cipants  in   response  to  the  ques0on   “What  key  values  are   manifested  in   experiences  that  shaped   you  as  learner,  teacher,   and  changemaker?’       and  summarized  within   four  working  groups   60  
  61. 61. Global  EducaQon  Futures  California:  Project  Space   61   Clustering  of  #tags  used   by  par0cipants  to   describe  their  current   projects  in  educa0on   #Student’s  voice   #Collabora0ve  learning   #Systemicity   #Common  Good   #art  in  educa0on   #meaningful  fun   #spiritual  growth   #emo0onal  intelligence   #  technology     cannot  subs0tute     human  touch   #community  GDP   #reinven0ng  community   #healing  educa0on   #  resilience   #  technology  for   community  health   #  transgenera0onal   #fear  of  kids   #sprint  to  solu0ons   #parent  management   #fragmenta0on   #lack  of  common  values   #big  data   #predic0ve  analy0cs   #open  educa0on   #radical  informa0on   literacy   #computer-­‐mediated   learning   Overcoming  obstacles   Leveraging  technology   Bringing  human  touch   Embracing  community   #Love  
  62. 62. GEF  California:  Key  Process   Group  work:   Values  that  shape   learners  +  Image  of   desirable  future  of   educa0on   Keynotes  /  panels:     founda0onal  concepts   that  define  the  ‘design   space’  for  future  of   learning   Panels:  changes  within   and  outside  educa0on   systems   Group  work:   Key  trends  that  shape   future  of  educa0on  to   2035   Group  work:   New  educa0on  formats   Possible  project   ini0a0ves   Presenta0on  &   discussion  of  Group   work  results   April  1   April  2   April  3   Inputs  from     key  experts   Group  work   (Rapid  Foresight)   Final     presenta0on   62  

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