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Available listing inventory Essex County, MA

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How many homes that failed to sell between 2009 and 2012 are likely to come on to the market in 2014 and beyond? This analysis of the data for Essex County may highlight a key factor in a 3 year run of real estate purchase activity.

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Available listing inventory Essex County, MA

  1. 1. Available Listing Inventory A Real Estate Forecast for Essex County All of the following data is per MLS Property Information Network (MLSPIN) for SF & CC property types for the areas and time frames noted on each page. Analysis by Siga Snipas & Ed Ridolfi siga.snipas@beangroup.com or edridolfi@yahoo.com
  2. 2. Peak Listing Inventory Essex County # Listings 20000 17,678 18000 16000 14000 11,192 12000 10000 8000 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
  3. 3. Peak Sales Activity Essex County # Sales 12000 9609 10000 7,894 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
  4. 4. Market Momentum Year to Year Change in Median Prices Essex County 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 -5.00% -10.00% % Change 08 09 10 11 12 13
  5. 5. Median Sales Prices Essex County Median SP 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
  6. 6. Listings Inventory v Sold Essex County 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Sales 08 09 10 11 12 13
  7. 7. Unsold Listings Essex County 2009 – 2012* Total Number of Listings: Total Listings Sold: 44,642 -25,172 Total Un-Sold Listings: 19,470 * Rationale: Most homes on the market in this period were not speculating on sale price. We assume that most of the homes on in this period had a need to sell during this epic period of depressed sales and median prices.
  8. 8. Possible Available Inventory Calculation Essex County Reduce the Un-Sold Listings by between 1/3 & 2/3 to account for duplicate listings, losses to foreclosure and other variables. 6,490 12,580
  9. 9. Another Calculation Calculate the absolute difference between the Peak Listing Number and the 2013 Inventory Peak Listing Inventory (2005): 2013 Listing Inventory: 17,678 -11,192 6,486
  10. 10. Historical Increases in Listing Inventory Essex County In the period 2003 – 2005, inventory increased an average of 16% per year or roughly 2,000 additional listings each year.
  11. 11. Listing Inventory Essex County w/ Forecast Increases of 5%, 10%, & 15% # Listings 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
  12. 12. 2014 -2016 The Next Big Market Upswing ?

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