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Indonesia votes 2014 (1)


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Indonesia votes 2014

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Indonesia votes 2014 (1)

  1. 1. Indonesia Votes 2014
  2. 2. Indonesia’s national elections are fast approaching… • Indonesia's parliamentary (legislative) and presidential (executive) elections will soon take place. Legislative Elections on April 9, 2014 First Round Presidential Elections on July 9, 2014 • • The legislative elections will select parliamentary members. The executive elections will select the next president and vice president. • The presidential election in July will coincide with the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, but this is unlikely to impact election schedules, as the second round of the last 2009 presidential election also took place during Ramadan. *Due to Indonesia’s absolute majority vote system, the first round vote can be followed by a second round vote – with the two highest votes from the first round moving to a second round run-off election – if none of the candidates achieve an absolute majority.
  3. 3. How voting works… • The Indonesian General Election Commission (Komisi Pemilihan Umum or KPU), supervises and is responsible for carrying out elections across Indonesia. • The 2014 presidential elections will be carried out in accordance with Law No. 28 of 2008 on the Elections of President and Vice President. • The country is working towards e-voting in the hope of implementing the new system in time for the general elections. • The basis of the e-voting system is electronic identity cards (e-KTP) which have been prepared since 2012 nationally, and have been trialed in six districts/cities, namely Padang (West Sumatera), Denpasar (Bali), Jembrana (Bali), Yogyakarta (Central Java), Cilegon (West Java), and Makassar (South Sulawesi).
  4. 4. Who can run for President? • The Indonesian political system allows any eligible individuals to run for president and vice president. • However, support from major political parties is crucial in determining their electability (a minimum threshold must be met in the legislative elections).
  5. 5. Who can run for President? • In reality, only candidates endorsed by major parties have a chance of competing, but parties will want to back popular candidates who can carry through the popular vote. • Being a popular party is not enough. Indonesia’s presidential elections are still popularity contests. Personality really does matter. This is why a popular candidate backed by a number of smaller parties could still beat a less popular candidate backed by one of the major political parties – as long as the threshold is met, anything can happen. • Short-term political trends can decide elections. For example, current President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, was not seriously considered as a serious presidential candidate until a few months before the election season commenced and his personal popularity grow.
  6. 6. Political parties • In recent years, the number of political parties contesting major elections has varied considerably. • In 2004, 24 parties contested the national elections and 16 secured enough seats to be represented in the national parliament. Meanwhile, there was a significant increase of candidates in 2009. • However, due to the regulation on the electoral threshold, since 2009 the number of parties eligible as contestants in the election has reduced. Of 38 parties participated in the national elections, only 9 were able to secure seats in the national parliament. • Since 1999, the number of political parties that are eligible to contest the general elections fell from 48 to 12 in 2014 – an increasing consolidation of power among a few major parties.
  7. 7. Political parties competing in 2014… • This year, 12 parties will compete in the national elections and three more have been authorized to run candidates in Aceh province*. • It is expected that the presidential candidates who hope to mount an effective campaign will need to secure the support of at least one of the major parties as well as several other smaller parties. *The Aceh local parties’ participation is based on the Helsinki MoU between the Indonesian Government and Free Aceh Movement (GAM) to end conflict in the province.
  8. 8. Which political parties are eligible to compete? To compete in the 2014 national elections, parties are required by the KPU (General Election Commission) to have:  a regional chapter in every province in the country.  a chapter in at least 75 percent of each province’s regencies or municipalities  a chapter in at least half of each regency’s or municipality’s districts  at least 1,000 official members
  9. 9. Indonesia’s national parties • Indonesia has 12 national parties. These parties are increasingly being consolidated into a smaller and smaller number of major national parties. • For example, although there are a number of national parties only the PDIP, the Democratic Party and Golkar have large numbers of seats in parliament. Often even large parties have to go into coalition partnerships with smaller parties to field Presidential tickets in order to be eligible for the parliamentary seat eligibility threshold. Democrat National Party (NasDem) Party of the Functional Groups (Golkar) National Awakening Party (PKB) Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) National Mandate Party (PAN) United Development Party (PPP) Peoples Conscience Party (Hanura) Crescent Star Party (PBB) Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI) Meanwhile, the three Aceh parties consist of Aceh Peace Party (PDA), Aceh National Party (PNA), and Aceh Party (PA)
  10. 10. Presidential candidates • Speculation continues as to who will be Indonesia’s eventual Presidential candidate. There are a number of highprofile candidates, some officially declared and some not. • The front row contenders are Joko Widodo, known more commonly as ‘Jokowi’ from the PDIP and Prabowo Subianto from Gerindra. For Jokowi to be able to run, he will first need the backing of PDIP party leader Megawati Sukarnoputri (herself a past president and potential candidate for 2014). This is the ‘will he wont he’ soap opera that continues to transfix the Indonesian media. • So far, other strong contenders include Dahlan Iskan*, Gita Wirjawan*, Hayono Isman, Jusuf Kalla, Megawati Sukarnoputri, Pramono Edhie Wibowo*, Wiranto and Aburizal Bakrie. But anything could happen…. * Members of the party of Indonesia's incumbent President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (who is term barred), the Democratic Party is languishing in the polls. These candidates are currently competing in the party’s convention to choose who will be the Democratic Party presidential candidate.
  11. 11. Understanding the parliamentary process
  12. 12. The parliamentary structure For the 2014 legislative elections, the total numbers of seats contested are 20,389 with the following breakdown: Level Institution Seats contested National People's Representative Council Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR) 560 National Regional Representative Council Dewan Perwakilan Daerah (DPRD) 132 Province Propinsi Regional House of Representatives Level I Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah I (DPRD I) 2,137 Regency Kabupaten/Kota Madya Regional House of Representative Level II Dewan Perwakilian Rakyat Daerah II (DPRD II) 17,560 Total 20,389 The above figures include seats in the national, provincial, and district legislative assemblies. Indonesia’s newest province, North Kalimantan, will not be represented in any of these assemblies until 2019. * Indonesia’s parliament is technically the two constituent houses sitting in joint session.
  13. 13. The national level: The People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) The national level parliament, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), is bicameral. It consists of two houses:  the Lower House: the House of Representatives (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat) with 560 seats  the Upper House: the Regional Representative Council (Dewan Perwakilan Daerah) with 132 seats
  14. 14. The national level: The People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) • MPR is one of the highest state institutions in the Indonesian constitutional system. • Members of the MPR consist of DPR and DPD members who have been elected through general elections. • Currently, the MPR is not part of the legislation process except for constitutional amendments. Before the amendment of the 1945 Constitution, the MPR was acting as the Supreme Council of State. • Today, the MPR’s position is equal to other higher institutions such as the Presidency, DPR, DPD, Supreme Audit Agency (BPK), Supreme Court (MA), and Constitutional Court (MK). • The MPR has the authority to amend and enact the Constitution, inaugurate the President and/or Vice President and may only dismiss the President and/or Vice-President during his/her term of office in accordance with the Constitution. Based on 1945 Constitutional Amendments. • The MPR shall convene in session at least once every five years in the capital of the state. This is when the two houses sit jointly together, the MPR is in session.
  15. 15. The provincial level: Provincial Legislative Assemblies • At the provincial level, 33 of Indonesia’s 34 provinces have their own Provincial Legislative Assemblies (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah-I). • The add up to a combined total of 2,137 seats. • Each province is subdivided into regencies or municipalities - 508 in all - though only 497 of these have their own District Legislative Assemblies (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah-II). A combined total of 16,895 seats are up for grabs at the district level. *Jakarta’s six districts and North Kalimantan’s five districts will not elect District Legislative Assemblies in 2014.
  16. 16. The national parliamentary election campaign • The campaign period for the 2014 legislative elections will start from January 11 to April 5 2014. • These are some of the most recent polls and predictions… All tables reproduced with permission from Reformasi Weekly; see
  17. 17. The national parliamentary election campaign Indonesia has a number of rules in regards to national election campaigning: • Outdoor rallies, banners, large meetings, and campaign advertisements in mass media will only be allowed from March 16 to April 5. • Between January 11 and March 16, meetings can have a maximum of 1,000 attendees for lower house campaigns and 250 attendees for district or city campaigns; election authorities must be given prior notification of the meetings. • Campaigning will cease four days prior to the election. Then, from April 6–8, there will be a “cooling-down period”.
  18. 18. The national parliamentary election campaign: The allocation of DPR seats • How seats are allocated The House of Representatives is divided into electoral districts (a province, a district, and a combination of districts), and each electoral district has between three and ten seats. • The voting process On voting day, voters receive a House of Representatives ballot containing a list of each party’s candidates who are running for a seat in their electoral district. Voters select their preferred candidate from the list. Each vote counts for both the party and the candidate.
  19. 19. The national parliamentary election campaign: The KPU (General Election Commission) process • • • KPU then calculates what is known as the “quota” for each electoral district. The quota is defined as the total number of valid votes obtained by political parties that meet the national threshold for parliamentary representation (3.5 percent of the national vote) divided by the total number of seats in that electoral district. A two-round allocation system is then used to determine the winning candidates. THE TWO-ROUND ALLOCATION SYSTEM In the first allocation round, parties receive a seat for each quota they meet, and the votes used to reach these quotas are then deducted from the relevant party’s total. Each party that receives seats is required to allocate them to whichever of its candidates received the most votes. Some parties may not meet the quota, and every party will have votes remaining. In the second allocation round, the parties are first listed in decreasing order of their remaining votes. The unallocated seats are then distributed one by one according to this sequence until all seats are filled. In the unlikely event that two parties have the same number of votes remaining when entering this round, the seat goes to the party with the wider geographic distribution in the electoral district (note that it is impossible for a party to receive more than one additional seat in this second round). THE OPEN LIST SYSTEM The open-list system was introduced in 2009 and is designed to do two things: give smaller parties a fair shot at obtaining a parliamentary seat and force candidates from the same party to compete against each other for votes. Before 2009, Indonesia used closed-list proportional representation in which votes were cast only for a preferred party. Seats were then allocated to parties in proportion to the votes cast, and the party (not the voters) would choose which of its members would represent the constituency
  20. 20. The local parliamentary election campaign: Provincial and District Legislative Assemblies • The Provincial and District Legislative Assemblies have a similar seat allocation system, but a 2012 decision by the Indonesian Constitutional Court ruled that a political party does not need to meet the 3.5 percent national threshold to win a seat in these assemblies. • Thus the quota for electoral districts at the provincial and district levels consists of the total valid votes cast in the district divided by the total number of seats in the district. • Electoral districts for the provincial and district assemblies are made up of regencies/municipalities and sub districts, respectively, and have between three and twelve seats.
  21. 21. The local parliamentary election campaign: Regional Representative Councils The Regional Representative Councils use a simpler voting system. • Voters in each province choose one candidate on the provincial ballot, and the four candidates who win the most votes in each province then become representatives in the upper house at the national level. • Although most candidates for these posts are affiliated with parties, their party affiliations are irrelevant because they serve on the assembly in a personal capacity and not as party functionaries.
  22. 22. The Presidential nomination process
  23. 23. Presidential nomination requirements • According to the 2008 election law, only parties or coalitions controlling 20% of DPR seats or winning 25% of the popular votes in the 2014 parliamentary elections will be eligible to nominate a candidate. • This law is unlikely to be amended before the 2014 elections.
  24. 24. Presidential nomination requirements • In the presidential election, Indonesians vote for a ticket that includes a president and vice president. The pair that receives more than 50 percent of the vote nationwide and more than 20 percent of the vote in over half the provinces wins. • If no clear winner emerges in the first round, the two front-runners (that is, the two tickets that received the highest percentage of the national vote in the first round) compete in a run-off election, which will be held in September 2014 if it is required. Of the three general elections after the reform era, only one in 2009 required a second round. For this year’s election, the government has not yet decided upon the timing for the second round.
  25. 25. Who can run? • Another issue with presidential nominations is that they do not necessarily have to be MPR members to run for office. • Presidential candidates can be nominated from all walks of life, from ex-generals, to academics, technocrats to dangdut singers. • Most of all, successful candidates need to be able to lead coalitions and unite different factions. As has been discussed, to run for president a nominee usually has to be nominated by two or more parties to reach the required DPR seat threshold.
  26. 26. After the election: The appointing of Ministers and the Cabinet • The appointment of ministers is the president’s prerogative right. The president will determine and appoint ministers who will form the government and run the country. • The overall total of ministries is set at 34. There is no specific requirement for ministerial appointments and they do not, for instance, require approval by the DPR. • Some appointments are usually from outside government and political parties, for example technocrats or industry leaders.
  27. 27. Potential Presidential candidates and their chances
  28. 28. The candidates: old establishment WHO Aburizal Bakrie Billionaire and chairman of Golkar political party Megawati Sukarnoputri former President and head of the PDI-P political party Prabowo Subianto Head of the Gerinda party. Controversial ‘tough guy’ HOW CHANCES Golkar is a long-standing political party, once the political wing of the Suharto military dictatorship. Of all of the Indonesian parties, it has the strongest and most wellorganized local and regional political base. Golkar is a member of the loose ruling coalition. It is likely Golkar will emerge from the legislative elections as the largest party; conceivably large enough to control the House without forming a coalition. Golkar will be certain to field a presidential candidate and Bakrie is already confirmed as its choice. The Bakrie family has a colorful reputation in business circles. The challenge is for Bakrie the statesman to be perceived differently from Bakrie the controversial businessman In a presidential poll without Jokowi, Bakrie has a chance, thanks to Golkar's formidable electoral machine, of winning. rd But his low opinion polling puts him in 3 place behind Jokowi and Prabowo Subianto. There were signs that the party was unhappy at the level of funding he was providing the party leading to a media squall he should be replaced (which calls seems now to have dissipated) The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is the party of the rural poor; after Golkar it has a large and solid base. Megawati is the daughter of Indonesia's founder, Sukarno, and (like the Ghandi dynasty in India) this gives more influence to Megawati than her disappointing and underachieving one term as President (20012004) suggests she deserves. As first Vice President of the democratic era, she assumed the top office when President 'Gus Dur' was deposed in July 2001 (essentially at the behest of Indonesia's current president, then security minister). Surrounded by a dense group of flattering acolytes that have prospered under Indonesia’s favour-based politics, she may choose to run a third term. There are few signs that she connects with Indonesia’s young voters The former special forces general who has been alleged to have ordered human rights abuses in the dying days of the Suharto military dictatorship that ended in 1998 (he also has a controversial reputation from his time commanding special forces in occupied East Timor after Indonesia's invasion and suppression of the East Timorese: currently on US visa ‘black list’ and that of some EU countries). Although superficially a nationalist party, observers say he is the most 'can do' candidate to speed up reform and will - if elected - do much to open Indonesia to foreign investment and reduce the power of the oligarchs (who have a love/hate relationship with him). Irrational when angry / formidable temper. Media barons fear he will reintroduce press censorship Still beloved by her close supporters, but very few others, Megawati may have passed her political prime. Some of her biggest fans hope she will not stand “and lose” again for the 3rd straight time. Logic suggests she be 'Kingmaker' for Jokowi but Megawati has an indefatigable sense of her own destiny. Some talk of Bakrie suggesting a PDI-P/Golkar tie-up with him as VP, which might have legs Gerinda may struggle to pass the DPR threshold to field a presidential candidate without buddying-up with another candidate. But in a race without Jokowi he could be the candidate to beat. The Indonesian media (and their owners) fear him and allege he will suppress free speech (Indonesia, remember, currently has the freest press in Asia). Equally looks a winner if young voters don’t turn out 28
  29. 29. The candidates: political rock stars? WHO HOW CHANCES Joko ('Jokowi') Widodo Governor of Jakarta and member of the PDI-P A political rock star whose surprise win in the Jakarta gubernatorial elections in 2012 set off a political tsunami in Indonesia; underlining the dissatisfaction with the current ruling political elite. Known as 'Jokowi' and a man of the people he is, arguably, as yet untested in complex government but, given how many of the electorate in 2014 are under 30, and given by then he'll have over 2 years of gubernatorial experience, this is unlikely to stop him should he stand. As polls for the April 9 DPR elections stand, PDI-P should be able to field its own candidate. If it can't - and must buddy-up - we say it is very unlikely that Jokowi would accept being anyone's VP (not even party-leader Megawati's), preferring to keep his powder dry for 2019. Every other smaller party will want to be his VP candidate. In recent weeks however there are signs that Megawati believes she is still the woman to lead Indonesia (thwarting Jokowi) but this could be a bluff until the last moment All polls to date suggest he is unbeatable as a candidate for Presidency but Jokowi has been gnomic and (we say) he will only stand if the head of the PDI-P, Megawati, steps aside and asks him to. This will require a humility on the part of Megawati that will not come easy to her. That said, only the election poll will count and in the fierce heat of campaigning Jokowi might be outclassed by Prabowo as a candidate and PDI-P outclassed by the Golkar electoral machine Another former general with a controversial past: most seriously alleged by the UN to have deliberately overseen human rights abuses in East Timor during Indonesia's eventual withdrawal, which saw terrible massacres. Led the Indonesian Military (TNI) during the downfall of Suharto and, paradoxically, is credited with not using the Army to impose a new military regime (but is accused of orchestrating human rights violations with Jakarta militias, especially against the Chinese community, in 1998). Stood unsuccessfully as VP candidate in 2009 (on the ticket of former Vice President and Aceh peace negotiator Josef Kalla). Was Golkar's presidential candidate in 2004 The only thing that makes Wiranto a viable candidate is the money and extensive TV media machine from recent party convert, billionaire media tycoon and extrovert, Hary (one 'r') Tanoesoedibjo, who would be VP candidate if Hanura passes the DPR threshold (which we think unlikely). Could be someone’s VP candidate if he delivers Hary T’s money (e.g. to Bakrie or Prabowo) Once – but perhaps no longer – considered a 'rock star' amongst foreign investors, this US-educated millionaire was the westernized foreign face that greets inward investment. Some expressed frustration at his lack of ability to deliver, however, and saw him as having more profile than power within the Indonesian government. His resignation from office to pursue the Democrat candidature was controversial. Fans say he is 'rich enough not to have needed corruption’. Critics dislike his agitprop Gita Irawan Wirjawan economic nationalism and he stands criticized for supporting vested interests in Until very recently was areas like food import quotas in order to curry favor with the Democrat party power Minister for Trade base All the things that made Pak Gita popular with foreigners conspire against grass-roots popularity in Indonesia. His gambit to lead the Dems is to say he can connect better with Indonesia's young electorate than the President's brother-in-law, General Pramono (and this may be true). The fact he is still mostly perceived as corruption-free may also be attractive to a party currently imploding under the weight of corruption investigations of its 29 leading members Wiranto Head of the Hanura party
  30. 30. The candidates: the family firm WHO Pramono Edhie Wibowo Former armed forces chief and brother-in-law of the current president Hatta Rajasa Chairman of the PAN party and Coordinating Minister for the Economy. His daughter is married to one of the current president's sons HOW CHANCES Some observers of Indonesian politics say the current president, Yudhoyono, is steering the wreckage of his party to be a family dynasty, as his Democratic Party tumbles ceaselessly in the polls. The troubled Dems have been holding a confusing and ill-defined Primary process to select their candidate for 2014, and Pramono is widely touted for the role. It is a cliché of Indonesian politics to say that voters prefer a general. This was true for Yudhoyono's two wins in 2009 and 2004 but, arguably, that was an older generation of voters who had just lived through 30 years of military dictatorship and, in the early ‘000s, when Indonesia seemed on the edge of splintering chaos. No sign younger voters feel this today. Wibowo looks like a family favorite to be a DP candidate in the unlikely event the Democrats win enough votes in the DPR to field their own presidential candidate Being Yudhoyono’s brother-in-law makes him a safe pair of hands for the Yudhoyono family – keeping the place warm for a future son to stand perhaps - but does not add to his electability; nor perhaps does being a former general in a country where so much of the electorate in 2014 will be under 30 years old and have not served in the military. Unlikely to win presidency if a candidate (and polls currently suggest the Democrats may not pass the DPR threshold to field their own candidate, without buddying-up with at least one other party) Rajasa is a fascinating figure. A modernizer who is closest to political Islamists, and a social conservative who is also passionate about modern art, but it should be noted that his name is being brought up in a current corruption scandal more often than is wise for a would-be president. Some controversy too over how leniently his son was treated by the courts, having been charged with vehicular manslaughter. That said, he would be a formidable campaigner (his campaign machine has been in place for months). Mining and oil & gas foreign investors are highly suspicious of him (which probably helps him electorally). The Economist and its ilk will likely not write kindly of him, come the time, but they don’t have a vote. Among – with Jokowi - the most economically-nationalist of all the viable candidates but he also has a reputation as a can-do minister PAN may struggle to win enough votes to field its own Presidential candidate. His supporters would love him to be VP candidate in a Jokowi/PDI-P presidential bid (but it is hard to see what Jokowi would gain from this); more likely to be a VP candidate with with Bakrie/Golkar or Prabowo/Gerinda. We think he could be just the chap to be VP on a Prabowo ticket which, in a race without Jokowi, could beat a Megawati/Bakrie ticket. 30
  31. 31. • Whoever wins the next election faces a number of significant policy challenges. • It is also uncertain as to what policy direction the new president will take, as many of Indonesia’s politicians and political parties fail to articulate a detailed “manifesto” during the election period. • For business, understanding the new government and the new policy landscape will be a substantial but crucial public affairs challenge.
  32. 32. THANK YOU Stephen Lock Edelman Indonesia