Successfully reported this slideshow.
Your SlideShare is downloading. ×

Parris j bay_taskforce_apr2018_final

Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Upcoming SlideShare
Regueroetal_ReEng_Reefs_2015
Regueroetal_ReEng_Reefs_2015
Loading in …3
×

Check these out next

1 of 30 Ad

More Related Content

Slideshows for you (20)

Similar to Parris j bay_taskforce_apr2018_final (20)

Advertisement

More from ecowatchers (20)

Recently uploaded (20)

Advertisement

Parris j bay_taskforce_apr2018_final

  1. 1. Status and trends in Jamaica Bay: Building a Baywide assessment
  2. 2. SCIENCE+ RESILIENCE INSTITUTE JAMAICA BAY, NYC SCIENC RESILIEN INSTITU JAMAICA BAY, Latest study on Water Quality LateststudyonEcosystems Latest study on Flooding Latest study on Communities
  3. 3. SCIENCE+ RESILIENCE INSTITUTE JAMAICA BAY, NYC SCIENC RESILIEN INSTITU JAMAICA BAY, Flooding Ecosystems Water Quality Communities Integrated Assessment
  4. 4. Integrated Analysis and Planning Project Demonstrate value of building integrated analytical tools and interactive approach to long-term planning under uncertainty
  5. 5. Extensive stakeholder input throughout !
  6. 6. Primary goals and metrics Improve habitat and ecosystem function Reduce flood risk Improve water quality Goal Metric(s) • Flood exposure (e.g., count of structures flooded) • Inundation area • Acreage and extent of designated habitats by type • Dissolved oxygen concentration • Nutrient loads • Sediment contamination • Residence time
  7. 7. Bay$Water$Quality [sECOM 34D$&$ JEM] Watershed$/$ Sewershed [Infoworks] Tidal$ Hydrodynamics$ [sECOM 24D] Natural$ Ecosystem$Areas$ [VisionMaker Marsh$(VMM)] Monthly$Tidal$ Flooding [sECOM 24D] Flood$Damage$ and$ Consequences$ Water$quality$ metrics Land$cover$ metrics Flood$risk$ metrics Species$Habitat$ Areas$ [VisionMaker] Water$Quality$&$ Hydrodynamics$ [ECOMSED] Required$ module Primary$ metrics Future$ module Legend
  8. 8. Concept 1 – proposed barrier + perimeter restoration
  9. 9. Concept 2 – Inlet narrowing, perimeter, and max restoration
  10. 10. 10 Scenario Year SLR (in) Annual Temperature Change (1985 = 0; °F) Annual Rainfall Change (%) Rainfall Analog for Time Series Modeling (Gauge-Year) 50th 2041 16 3.9 5 NYCDEP “Future Central” JFK-2005 90th 2041 30 5.2 10 NYCDEP “Future Precautionary” LGA-2006 50th 2066 29 6.0 10 NYCDEP “Future Precautionary” LGA-2006 90th 2066 58 8.3 15 NYCDEP “Future Precautionary” LGA-2006 (up-scaled to 15%) Source: NPCC (2015); compared to 1971-2000 mid-point baseline. Climate Scenarios
  11. 11. Sea level rise trends Plot shows NPCC estimates of future SLR with a fitted polynomial for interpolation (NPCC, 2015). Values shown here are relative to a 2000-2004 baseline; these were later converted to a 2016 baseline for this analysis. Year 25
  12. 12. Results – Change in Habitat PENDING FINAL REVIEW DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE
  13. 13. Results – Land Gain/Loss PENDING FINAL REVIEW. DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE.
  14. 14. Results – Change in Habitat PENDING FINAL REVIEW DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE
  15. 15. Results – Assets Inundated by Tidal Flooding PENDING FINAL REVIEW DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE Scenario / Concept Mid High Without Action Concept 1: Barrier and Restoration Concept 2: Narrowing and Wetlands Without Action Concept 1: Barrier and Restoration Concept 2: Narrowing and Wetlands 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Number of structures 388 270 290 1,816 1,568 1,635 Building Category Single Family Residential Multi Family Residential Commercial Industrial Institutional Public
  16. 16. Results – Bottom layer Dissolved Oxygen PENDING FINAL REVIEW. DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE.
  17. 17. Results – Summary Comparison PENDING FINAL REVIEW. DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE.
  18. 18. Are the gains in habitat sustainable beyond Year 2025?
  19. 19. Fagherazzi, Sergio, Giuilio Mariotti, Patricia Wiberg, and Karen McGlathery. “Marsh Collapse Does Not Require Sea Level Rise.” Oceanography 26, no. 3 (September 1, 2013): 70-77. © 2013 The Oceanography Society, Inc.
  20. 20. Bathymetric change in Jamaica Bay (USACE) Geomorphological and Archaeological Study of New York and New Jersey Harbor Navigation Channels
  21. 21. Sea level rise trends Plot shows NPCC estimates of future SLR with a fitted polynomial for interpolation (NPCC, 2015). Values shown here are relative to a 2000-2004 baseline; these were later converted to a 2016 baseline for this analysis. Year 25
  22. 22. 22 Hapke, C.J., Himmelstoss, E.A., Kratzmann, M., List, J.H., and Thieler, E.R., 2010, National assessment of shoreline change; historical shoreline change along the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1118, 57 p. Regional sediment supply to Jamaica Bay
  23. 23. 2016 Sediment supply to Jamaica Bay PENDING PUBLICATION. DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE. SCIENCE+ RESILIENCE INSTITUTE JAMAICA BAY, NYC SCIENC RESILIEN INSTITU JAMAICA BAY, 110 MT/yr
  24. 24. Are the gains in flood protection sustainable beyond Year 2025?
  25. 25. New York City Panel on Climate Change, 2015
  26. 26. Preliminary findings for discussion 1. Both Baywide concepts provide habitat and flood risk reduction benefits without much impact to water quality 2. The habitat and flood risk reduction benefits are most effective in the 20 - 30 year timeframe. 3. After that, we do not have a good handle on life cycle and maintenance costs, potential damages, or feasible habitat assemblages. 4.We do know that habitat restoration is more adaptive/adjustable and benefits can be carried over to longer term
  27. 27. Ø RAND-led study (Rockefeller funded) Ø Jamaica Bay Observing System (NPS funded) Ø USGS/Woods Hole data (DOI funded) Ø Renfro et al SUNY-Stonybrook (NPS funded) Primary Sources
  28. 28. SCIENCE+ RESILIENCE INSTITUTE JAMAICA BAY, NYC SCIENC RESILIEN INSTITU JAMAICA BAY, Flooding Ecosystems Water Quality Communities Integrated Assessment
  29. 29. Our Vision A new model of collaboration emerges in the Jamaica Bay watershed propelling the City of New York and its local, regional, and international partners to new standards of sustainability and resilience. Our Mission Our mission is to advance science, support decisions, and inspire people to support healthy people and ecosystems. What We Do Advance the process and impact of scientific research. Support equity and adaptation in decision- making Inspire future generations to pursue sustainability goals. Our Values Respect local and experiential knowledge Harmonize diverse science from basic to usable Foster inclusive and collaborative exchange Examine problems and solutions constructively
  30. 30. Preliminary findings for discussion 1. Both scenarios provide habitat and flood risk reduction benefits without much impact to water quality 2. The habitat and flood risk reduction benefits are most effective in the 20 - 30 year timeframe. 3. After that, we do not have a good handle on life cycle and maintenance costs, potential damages, or feasible habitat assemblages. 4.We do know that habitat restoration is more adaptive/adjustable and benefits can be carried over to longer term

×