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Evaluating Basins for Salmon Conservation across the North Pacific:   Abundance, Diversity and Threats Matthew Goslin – Ec...
Background <ul><li>The State of the Salmon program: </li></ul><ul><li>“ Knowledge across borders” </li></ul><ul><li>a join...
Current Wild Salmon Center Program Areas
Pacific Salmon Conservation Assessment (PSCA) <ul><li>Prioritizing investments in North Pacific salmon conservation </li><...
Assessment Criteria <ul><li>Hatchery Influence </li></ul><ul><li>Landscape SuitabilityThreats  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dams,...
Study Area and Watershed Units <ul><li>Key issue – uniform scale and data quality across region </li></ul><ul><li>915 wate...
Hydro1k Units
PSCA Study Area and  Historic Range of Salmon
North Pacific Salmon Species Assessed <ul><li>Oncorhynchus spp. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>median, max for hydro1k catchments <...
Estimating Abundance <ul><ul><li>Compiled from agency reports, published literature, expert judgment </li></ul></ul><ul><u...
Estimating Abundance: Geographic Methods <ul><li>Allocate  abundance measured over multiple catchments and apportioned to ...
Methods of Estimating Abundance for Coho
Chinook Abundance
Chum Abundance
Coho Abundance
Pink Abundance
Sockeye Abundance
Steelhead Abundance
Species and Life History Richness <ul><li>Life history richness defined as the number of distinct migration timings for a ...
Life History Richness for Chinook
Species and Life History Richness
Integrating Abundance and Richness into a Conservation Value Index <ul><li>How you choose to calculate your index determin...
Conservation Value derived from Life History Richness and Abundance Scaled by North Pacific  Maximum  per Species
Conservation Value derived from Life History Richness and Abundance Scaled by North Pacific  Total  per Species
Pacific Salmon Ecoregions:  distinguished by major marine features and basins
Potential Priority Watersheds: Watersheds with High-Ranking Conservation Values Distributed across Salmon Ecoregions
Assessing Landscape Suitability and Threats <ul><ul><li>Data Sources: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Agricultural and Urban La...
Pacific Salmon Hatcheries
Hatcheries by Catchment
Landscape Suitability Indices: Urban Land Use
Landscape Suitability Indices: Agriculture
Dams within Pacific Salmon Basins
Modeling Dam Impacts on Fish Passage  through a Stream Network Using ArcGIS Network Analyst and the TRACE ACCUMULATE funct...
Modeling Dam Impacts on Fish Passage  through a Stream Network Stream passability declines as a percent of its previous pa...
Impedance to Fish Passage:  Columbia, Snake and Sacramento River mainstems
Impedance to Fish Passage through Stream Networks: Pacific Northwest and Northern California
Calculating a Dam Impact Index for Watersheds from Traced Stream Networks <ul><li>For each watershed the dam index is calc...
Dam Impact (Impedance) Index by Watershed:  Pacific Northwest and California
Index of Dam Impacts on Fish Passage
Combined Landscape Threat Index: derived from PCA of Dams, Ag and Urban Indices
Conservation Value Versus Threats and  Potential Conservation Strategies Restoration-oriented,  Reactive Strategy Protecti...
Future Direction <ul><li>Complete hatchery database and design impact analysis for hatcheries </li></ul><ul><li>Expand ana...
Acknowledgements <ul><li>Malin Pinsky, Dane Springmeyer, David Colbeck (WSC) </li></ul><ul><li>Jon Bonkoski (Ecotrust) </l...
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Evaluating Basins for Salmon Conservation across the North Pacific: Abundance, Diversity and Threats

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Evaluating Basins for Salmon Conservation across the North Pacific: Abundance, Diversity and Threats

  1. 1. Evaluating Basins for Salmon Conservation across the North Pacific: Abundance, Diversity and Threats Matthew Goslin – Ecotrust Malin Pinsky – Wild Salmon Center, Stanford Dane Springmeyer – Wild Salmon Center Jon Bonkoski – Ecotrust Presented at American Association of Geographers, April 2007 Society for Conservation GIS, June 2007
  2. 2. Background <ul><li>The State of the Salmon program: </li></ul><ul><li>“ Knowledge across borders” </li></ul><ul><li>a joint program of </li></ul><ul><li>Ecotrust: </li></ul><ul><li>“ Building a conservation economy” </li></ul><ul><li>The Wild Salmon Center: </li></ul><ul><li>“ Dedicated to conserving the most important places for salmon across the North Pacific” </li></ul>
  3. 3. Current Wild Salmon Center Program Areas
  4. 4. Pacific Salmon Conservation Assessment (PSCA) <ul><li>Prioritizing investments in North Pacific salmon conservation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>An Outcome: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Design North Pacific Network of salmon conservation rivers </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A Tool: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Explore patterns in salmon abundance and relationships to landscape characteristics and threats </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Available for others to use and explore data </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A Process: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Collaborative </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Transparent </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Continual improvement </li></ul></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Assessment Criteria <ul><li>Hatchery Influence </li></ul><ul><li>Landscape SuitabilityThreats </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dams, Urban & Agricultural Development </li></ul></ul>Abundance Species and Life History Richness Conservation Value
  6. 6. Study Area and Watershed Units <ul><li>Key issue – uniform scale and data quality across region </li></ul><ul><li>915 watershed units evaluated </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Current range of anadromous Pacific salmon </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Excluded areas in far north (Arctic) and far south (Honshu) with limited salmon presence and/or unavailable data </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Hydro1k level5 catchments (USGS 2003) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Derived from 1km resolution global DEMs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Size range 92 – 35,000 km2; average 4,300 km2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Edited to correct egregious errors in boundaries using Digital Chart of the World hydrography for reference </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Hydro1k Units
  8. 8. PSCA Study Area and Historic Range of Salmon
  9. 9. North Pacific Salmon Species Assessed <ul><li>Oncorhynchus spp. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>median, max for hydro1k catchments </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Chinook (King) – O. tshawytscha </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3,500 median; 109,000 max </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Chum – O. keta </li></ul><ul><ul><li>26,000 median; 5,000,000 max </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Coho – O. kisutch </li></ul><ul><ul><li>10,000 median; 1,100,000 max </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Pink – O. gorbuscha </li></ul><ul><ul><li>57,000 median; 18,000,000 max </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sockeye – O. nerka </li></ul><ul><ul><li>19,000 median; 9,900,000 max </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Steelhead – O. mykiss </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1,000 median; 41,000 max </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Estimating Abundance <ul><ul><li>Compiled from agency reports, published literature, expert judgment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Typically took annual average over the most recent 4 yrs of data (2001-2005), but where recent data was unavailable went back to earliest available post-1960 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Attempted to exclude hatchery fish, intent to include wild only </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Direct measures include catch, escapement (number of returning adult spawners), harvest rate etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Total adult abundance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>= catch * % wild + escapement * %wild </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>= catch / harvest rate * %wild </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>= escapement * % wild / (1 – harvest rate ) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Most widely available data are maps of salmon distribution with occupied stream length the most common metric </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Estimating Abundance: Geographic Methods <ul><li>Allocate abundance measured over multiple catchments and apportioned to individual catchments by relative occupied stream length within each catchment </li></ul><ul><li>Expand abundance measured within a portion of a watershed to the full catchment using occupied stream length </li></ul><ul><li>Extrapolate abundance into catchments with no data using regional linear models relating abundance to occupied stream length </li></ul>
  12. 12. Methods of Estimating Abundance for Coho
  13. 13. Chinook Abundance
  14. 14. Chum Abundance
  15. 15. Coho Abundance
  16. 16. Pink Abundance
  17. 17. Sockeye Abundance
  18. 18. Steelhead Abundance
  19. 19. Species and Life History Richness <ul><li>Life history richness defined as the number of distinct migration timings for a given salmon species within a given watershed (e.g. fall, winter, spring, summer or even/odd years) </li></ul><ul><li>Migration timing is genetically linked and represents distinct life history strategies that are adaptations to local conditions and flow timing. </li></ul>
  20. 20. Life History Richness for Chinook
  21. 21. Species and Life History Richness
  22. 22. Integrating Abundance and Richness into a Conservation Value Index <ul><li>How you choose to calculate your index determines what it shows you! </li></ul>Option 1 scales the abundance of each species in each watershed by the maximum abundance possible for that species across the N. Pacific, equalizing species Where A i,j is abundance of species j in watershed i , p is total number of species, T is total number of watersheds, R is life history richness and maxNP is the maximum value across the North Pacific Option 2 divides abundance of each species in each watershed by the total abundance for that species acroos the N. Pacific, giving rare species more weight
  23. 23. Conservation Value derived from Life History Richness and Abundance Scaled by North Pacific Maximum per Species
  24. 24. Conservation Value derived from Life History Richness and Abundance Scaled by North Pacific Total per Species
  25. 25. Pacific Salmon Ecoregions: distinguished by major marine features and basins
  26. 26. Potential Priority Watersheds: Watersheds with High-Ranking Conservation Values Distributed across Salmon Ecoregions
  27. 27. Assessing Landscape Suitability and Threats <ul><ul><li>Data Sources: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Agricultural and Urban Land Areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Global Landuse Landcover (USGS) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dams </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>State of the Salmon Dams Inventory </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hatcheries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>State of the Salmon Hatcheries Inventory </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Threats can be incorporated into the Conservation Value Index as negative terms or... </li></ul><ul><li>Relationships can be explored between the Conservation Value and the threat indices as explanatory variables </li></ul>
  28. 28. Pacific Salmon Hatcheries
  29. 29. Hatcheries by Catchment
  30. 30. Landscape Suitability Indices: Urban Land Use
  31. 31. Landscape Suitability Indices: Agriculture
  32. 32. Dams within Pacific Salmon Basins
  33. 33. Modeling Dam Impacts on Fish Passage through a Stream Network Using ArcGIS Network Analyst and the TRACE ACCUMULATE function, stream networks are traced upstream starting from the basin’s outlet. “Impedance” values that are associated with dams and represent a reduction in stream passability for migrating salmon are accumulated through the network.
  34. 34. Modeling Dam Impacts on Fish Passage through a Stream Network Stream passability declines as a percent of its previous passability. Each passable dam encountered reduces passability by 10% of the pre-dam passability. Cumulative impedance represents cumulative reduction in stream passability. Impassable dams reduce passability to 0 and impedance becomes 1. ( 1 - .73) = .27 (.81 - .81 * .1) = .73 .81 ( 1 - .81) = .19 (.90 - .90 * .1 ) = .81 .90 ( 1 - .90) = .10 (1.0 - 1.0 * .1) = .90 1.00 Post-dam Pre-dam Cumulative Impedance Passability
  35. 35. Impedance to Fish Passage: Columbia, Snake and Sacramento River mainstems
  36. 36. Impedance to Fish Passage through Stream Networks: Pacific Northwest and Northern California
  37. 37. Calculating a Dam Impact Index for Watersheds from Traced Stream Networks <ul><li>For each watershed the dam index is calculated as </li></ul><ul><li>Examples: </li></ul><ul><li>A watershed with 10% of streams above an impassable dam will have dam index = .10 </li></ul><ul><li>2) A watershed with 100% of streams above one passable dam will also have dam index = .10 </li></ul>
  38. 38. Dam Impact (Impedance) Index by Watershed: Pacific Northwest and California
  39. 39. Index of Dam Impacts on Fish Passage
  40. 40. Combined Landscape Threat Index: derived from PCA of Dams, Ag and Urban Indices
  41. 41. Conservation Value Versus Threats and Potential Conservation Strategies Restoration-oriented, Reactive Strategy Protection-oriented, Proactive Strategy Threat Value
  42. 42. Future Direction <ul><li>Complete hatchery database and design impact analysis for hatcheries </li></ul><ul><li>Expand analysis of dam impacts to include downstream effects </li></ul><ul><li>Explore relationships between abundance or conservation value and threats further </li></ul><ul><li>Continue to explore and decide how to incorporate threat indices into conservation value index </li></ul>
  43. 43. Acknowledgements <ul><li>Malin Pinsky, Dane Springmeyer, David Colbeck (WSC) </li></ul><ul><li>Jon Bonkoski (Ecotrust) </li></ul><ul><li>Scientific Advisory Team: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Xan Augerot, Paul McElhany, Gordon Reeves, Kelly Burnett, Peter Moyle, Jeff Rodgers, Karl English, Greg Ruggerone, Jack Stanford, Rob Ahrens, Peter Moyle, Randall Peterman </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Russian Advisors: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sergei Zolotukhin, Anatoly Semenchenko </li></ul></ul>

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