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Canvi climàtic: a temps de mitigar-lo?

Notas sobre las bases
científicas del cambio climático
y datos del 5º Informe IPCC...
El cambio climático es el problema ambiental ( y no es
sólo ambiental) más importante al que se enfrenta la
humanidad.
Tod...
Los límites físicos
del planeta Tierra

Sólo 40.000 km de
circunferencia (!)
Más de 7.000
millones hab.
A cada humano le corresponden 2,1 ha de
superficie emergida

2,1 ha

146 m
146 m

Contacto visual entre vecinos (!)
Debate...
En Rockström, J., W.…P. Crutzen…(2009) Planetary
boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for
humanity. Ecology and ...
El sistema climático

Sistema
socioeconómico
La variabilidad natural del clima: Solar y
volcánica
Volcán Eyjafjallajokull
(The Boston Globe)
IPCC (elaboración)
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
WMO y UNEP
www.ipcc.ch

1er IPCC (1990)
2º IPCC (1995)...
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
Summary f...
5º Informe IPCC, Grupo de Trabajo I (2013)
Resumen para políticos

“El calentamiento del sistema climático es inequívoco, ...
Cuatro adjetivos sobre el calentamiento global,
a partir del Cuarto/Quinto Informe IPCC
• Una constatación: Inequívoco
• U...
La composición química de la atmósfera se ha
modificado desde el comienzo de la Revolución
Industrial por causa antrópica
...
Evolución del CO2 a partir de reconstrucción paleoclimática

AR4
La temperatura
media global ha
aumentado 0,85ºC
durante el período
1880-2012
Las tres últimas
décadas han sido,
sin duda,
...
Calentamiento global, pero desigual
0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, en el período 1880–2012
(Variación entre las medias de los per...
Otros cambios observados

AR5
“Es extremadamente probable
que la influencia humana haya
sido la causa dominante del
calentamiento observado desde
mediad...
La evolución térmica en la Península Ibérica ha
sido paralela a la planetaria

Evolución temporal de
la temperatura media
...
Tendencias básicas de la precipitación anual
entre finales del siglo XIX y finales del XX

Sin tendencia
?
Disminución
sig...
Un cambio significativo: Los regímenes pluviométricos
estacionales en España
1946-1975

1976-2005

?

De Luis, Brunetti, G...
Las proyecciones climáticas

…no predicciones climáticas
Proyecciones de temperatura
AR
Aumento
proyectado de 5
temperatura
para 2081-2100,
respecto a
1986-2005:
Entre 1,0 y
3,7ºC...
Proyecciones planisféricas de la
temperatura

Calentamiento más acusado sobre los continentes y en
las altas latitudes bor...
Cambios futuros en la precipitación

Gentileza de
James Hurrell

AR5: Mayor constraste entre áreas lluviosas y secas
Desplazamiento latitudinal equivalente al calentamiento
en varias ciudades europeas

BCN
http://www.realinstitutoelcano.or...
Variación media
mensual (ºC) de
la temperatura
máxima para el
período 20712100, respecto a
1961-1990, y el
escenario A2,
m...
Variación media
de la
precipitación (en
%) para el
período 20712100, respecto a
1961-1990, y el
escenario A2,
mediante el
...
Proyecto ESCAT (Generació d’escenaris climàtics amb
alta resolució per a Catalunya) (SMC, 2012)
SMC (2012)
Dos acciones clave
• Mitigación: Reducir emisiones de
gases de efecto invernadero para
que el calentamiento sea el mínimo
...
Mitigación:
La central
nuclear de
fusión solar
A elevadísimas
presiones y
temperaturas,
núcleos de hidrógeno
se fusionan d...
Adaptación: Ejemplo, Vides de altura (900 m), Batlliu de Sort

Fotos Ramon y Conxi, meteopallars
Gràcies
Ginebra, febrero 2009
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Notas sobre las bases científicas del cambio climático y datos del 5o informe. > Javier Martín-Vide

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La presentació de Javier Martín-Vide a la sessió .tecno d'Ecotendències CosmoCaixa el dimarts 12 de novembre de 2013.

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Notas sobre las bases científicas del cambio climático y datos del 5o informe. > Javier Martín-Vide

  1. 1. Canvi climàtic: a temps de mitigar-lo? Notas sobre las bases científicas del cambio climático y datos del 5º Informe IPCC Javier Martín-Vide Grupo de Climatología Universitat de Barcelona www.ub.es/gc/menu.htm Barcelona, 12 noviembre 2013
  2. 2. El cambio climático es el problema ambiental ( y no es sólo ambiental) más importante al que se enfrenta la humanidad. Todos los habitantes del planeta tenemos una cuota de participación en el mismo, dado que, en mayor o menor cuantía, consumimos combustibles fósiles. Todos somos agentes del cambio climático y todos podemos ser víctimas.
  3. 3. Los límites físicos del planeta Tierra Sólo 40.000 km de circunferencia (!) Más de 7.000 millones hab.
  4. 4. A cada humano le corresponden 2,1 ha de superficie emergida 2,1 ha 146 m 146 m Contacto visual entre vecinos (!) Debate sobre la capacidad de carga del planeta: Otro debate.
  5. 5. En Rockström, J., W.…P. Crutzen…(2009) Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. se identifican 9 problemas que llevan asociados sendos límites planetarios: • • • • • • • • • Cambio climático (2ºC respecto a la temperatura preindustrial) Acidificación del océano Cambios en los ciclos globales del P y N Agujero de ozono Carga de aerosol atmosférico Uso de agua dulce Cambios de usos del suelo Pérdida de biodiversidad Contaminación química
  6. 6. El sistema climático Sistema socioeconómico
  7. 7. La variabilidad natural del clima: Solar y volcánica Volcán Eyjafjallajokull (The Boston Globe)
  8. 8. IPCC (elaboración) INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) WMO y UNEP www.ipcc.ch 1er IPCC (1990) 2º IPCC (1995) 3er IPCC (2001) 4º IPCC •450 autores principales •800 autores contribuyentes •Más de 2.500 revisores científicos expertos •Más de 130 estados •Período elaboración 2003-2007 5º IPCC WG1 •259 autores principales •600 autores contribuyentes •54.667 comentarios 4º IPCC (2007) 5º IPCC (2014) WG1, Base de ciencia física WG2, Impactos, adaptación y vulnerabilidad WG3, Mitigación
  9. 9. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers J.Martín-Vide, Wordle
  10. 10. 5º Informe IPCC, Grupo de Trabajo I (2013) Resumen para políticos “El calentamiento del sistema climático es inequívoco, y, desde los años 50 del siglo XX, muchos de los cambios observados no tienen precedentes en décadas a milenios. La atmósfera y el océano se han calentado, los totales de hielo y nieve han disminuido, el nivel del mar se ha elevado y las concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero han aumentado”
  11. 11. Cuatro adjetivos sobre el calentamiento global, a partir del Cuarto/Quinto Informe IPCC • Una constatación: Inequívoco • Una mirada atrás: Inusual • Una atribución: Antrópico • Una proyección: Inquietante Inevitable, “oportuno”…
  12. 12. La composición química de la atmósfera se ha modificado desde el comienzo de la Revolución Industrial por causa antrópica • La concentración actual de CO2 troposférico es de 393,3 ppmv (septiembre 2013), cuando a finales del siglo XIX era de 290 ppmv IPCC AR5, www.co2now.org
  13. 13. Evolución del CO2 a partir de reconstrucción paleoclimática AR4
  14. 14. La temperatura media global ha aumentado 0,85ºC durante el período 1880-2012 Las tres últimas décadas han sido, sin duda, sucesivamente las más cálidas de todo el período instrumental, período en el que hay suficientes registros meteorológicos, desde 1850 AR5
  15. 15. Calentamiento global, pero desigual 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, en el período 1880–2012 (Variación entre las medias de los períodos 1850–1900 y 2003–2012 es 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] °C) AR5
  16. 16. Otros cambios observados AR5
  17. 17. “Es extremadamente probable que la influencia humana haya sido la causa dominante del calentamiento observado desde mediados del siglo XX” (AR5) >95%
  18. 18. La evolución térmica en la Península Ibérica ha sido paralela a la planetaria Evolución temporal de la temperatura media de las máximas de 22 observatorios españoles durante el período 1850–2003, expresada como anomalías respecto a 1961-90 y suavizada con un filtro gaussiano de 13 años ºC +2 1 0 -1 -2 1850 Brunet et al, 2006 2003
  19. 19. Tendencias básicas de la precipitación anual entre finales del siglo XIX y finales del XX Sin tendencia ? Disminución significativa Milián (1996), modificado
  20. 20. Un cambio significativo: Los regímenes pluviométricos estacionales en España 1946-1975 1976-2005 ? De Luis, Brunetti, GonzálezHidalgo, Longares y Martin-Vide
  21. 21. Las proyecciones climáticas …no predicciones climáticas
  22. 22. Proyecciones de temperatura AR Aumento proyectado de 5 temperatura para 2081-2100, respecto a 1986-2005: Entre 1,0 y 3,7ºC. 22
  23. 23. Proyecciones planisféricas de la temperatura Calentamiento más acusado sobre los continentes y en las altas latitudes boreales y menor en el oceáno austral y en partes del norte del océano Atlántico. 23 AR5
  24. 24. Cambios futuros en la precipitación Gentileza de James Hurrell AR5: Mayor constraste entre áreas lluviosas y secas
  25. 25. Desplazamiento latitudinal equivalente al calentamiento en varias ciudades europeas BCN http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano/contenido? WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_es/programas/energiacambioclimatico/publicaciones/ari56-2011
  26. 26. Variación media mensual (ºC) de la temperatura máxima para el período 20712100, respecto a 1961-1990, y el escenario A2, mediante el modelo global HadAM3H regionalizado por el método de los análogos del INM. (Fuente: AEMet, 2009).
  27. 27. Variación media de la precipitación (en %) para el período 20712100, respecto a 1961-1990, y el escenario A2, mediante el modelo global ECHAM4 y el método de regionalización de análogos del INM. (Fuente: AEMet, 2009).
  28. 28. Proyecto ESCAT (Generació d’escenaris climàtics amb alta resolució per a Catalunya) (SMC, 2012)
  29. 29. SMC (2012)
  30. 30. Dos acciones clave • Mitigación: Reducir emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero para que el calentamiento sea el mínimo posible. • Adaptación: Ajustarse a las nuevas condiciones ambientales reduciendo el efecto de los impactos y aprovechando las nuevas oportunidades.
  31. 31. Mitigación: La central nuclear de fusión solar A elevadísimas presiones y temperaturas, núcleos de hidrógeno se fusionan dando núcleos de helio, con desprendimiento de energía http://tecnoblogtecno.blogspot.com/2010/04/centrales-nucleares.html “Combustible”: Hidrógeno (90%) “Residuo”: Helio (9%)
  32. 32. Adaptación: Ejemplo, Vides de altura (900 m), Batlliu de Sort Fotos Ramon y Conxi, meteopallars
  33. 33. Gràcies Ginebra, febrero 2009

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