Roose 7544


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Roose 7544

  1. 1. Antti Roose University of Tartu, Estonia SETTING INDICATORS FOR URBANIZATION: A CASE STUDY OF ESTONIA Ecocity World Summit 2008, San Francisco, CA
  2. 2. Suburbs for the masses arrived in 21. Century “G odzilla attacked new settlement” I nitiated by individual choices , how these decisions sum up over time and space to create sprawl .
  3. 3. Reductionism: disliking extra floor
  4. 4. Aims of the presentation <ul><li>S et ting urbanization indicators </li></ul><ul><li>D ata mining: to demonstrate fast suburbanizatio n of the Tartu urban region </li></ul><ul><li>An analysis of the main determinants of the patterns of suburban communities </li></ul><ul><li>Debating a wider question of spatial planning practice in the new Europe </li></ul>
  5. 5. Suburbanization in CEE <ul><li>S ince the late 1990s the cycle of urbanization had turned from urbanization to suburbanization . </li></ul><ul><li>Suburbanization is masked by the expected rapid economic development as internal economic dynamism, greater access to EU markets and other macro-level impact, globalization and ICT . </li></ul><ul><li>S uburbanization itself is an important dimension in the post-socialist stratification order . </li></ul>
  6. 6. Sprawl in CEE <ul><li>In Europe, the sprawl is defined as the physical pattern of low-density expansion of large urban areas into the surrounding agricultural areas . </li></ul><ul><li>Development : patchy and scattered, discontinuity, empty spaces, uncontrolled growth. </li></ul><ul><li>P lanning in urban area, in high-density environment is sharp ly distinguished from rural planning. </li></ul><ul><li>Regarding legislative context, neither European Union nor Estonian laws act directly and comprehensively against urban sprawl . </li></ul>
  7. 7. Keys for urban development <ul><li>Lost opportunities ? Tyranny of small decisions (A.Kahn 1966, W.Odum, 1982) </li></ul><ul><li>Horizontal/sector ver. vertical/spatial planning </li></ul><ul><li>Transition is initiated by spatial boom instead of reactive apporach </li></ul>
  8. 8. Methods F ine-tuning and upgrading of the EU Urban Audit to enable an assessment of the state of dynamic, transitional cities, in particular tracking suburbanization processes, and to provide information for spatial planning. A comparison of the indicator scores will allow cities and suburban municipalities to judge their progress in urban qualities as a result of fast suburbanization. A few clear-cut time-series were selected to represent actual urban processes. Information compounded data from the historic core city and surrounding municipalities to demonstrate disparities of development.
  9. 9. 1. Demography 1.1. Total resident population 1.2. Demographic dependency: 2. Social Aspects 2.1. Total number of households 2.2. Average size of households 2.3. Number of dwellings 2.4. Number of houses/apartments 2.5. Average area of living accommodation 2.6. Average price for an apartment 2.7. Number of recorded crimes per 1,000 pop 3. Economic Aspects 3.1. Unemployment rate 3.2. Median disposable annual household income 3.3. Proportion of individuals reliant on social security 4. Civic Aspects 4.1. Proportion of registered electorate voting in city elections 5. Environmental and Land Use Aspects 5.1. Proportion of the area used for agricultural purposes 5.2. Proportion of the area in housing/residential use 5.3. Issued master plans 5.4. Percentage of dwellings connected to sewerage treatment system 5.5. Ecological footprint of residents 6. Travel and Transport 6.1. Net residential density – population per land area in housing 6.2. Number of registered cars 6.3. Length of public transport network per capita 6.4. Percentage of journeys to work by car 6.5. Percentage of journeys to work by bus
  10. 10. Engines for suburbanization <ul><li>Land-driven : a vailability of free land for development </li></ul><ul><li>Housing-driven : t he willingness of city residents to upgrade their housing and to move from soviet-era flats to single-family dwellings </li></ul><ul><li>Business-driven : e asing mortgage conditions and economic boom , p rivate housing developers and commercial banks became the new key actors in housing construction </li></ul>
  11. 11. Land reform 2 Unlimited availability of undeveloped land
  12. 12. Timeline of post-socialist suburbanization in Estonia Q uality C ontrol ; Issuing general plans Infill in the city; growing share of semi-detached and terraced houses Suburbanization slowing down 2007–present Massive issuing master plans; delay master plan; g reen networks Mid-size settlements in fringe; peak of detached houses; apartment houses in the core city Peak of suburbanization / patchy urban sprawl 2003–2006 No or few master plans; comprehensive city planning Small settlements in fringe ; ‘landmarks’ in the city Slow suburbanization 1998–2002 No master plans; shortage of planning know-how; few districts in the city Vacant plots in the core city; single plots at the fringe; individual develop. Slow urbanization 1992–1997 Planning practice Key areas of development Urbanization process Period
  13. 13. Winner take all
  14. 14. Land price in the Tartu city and fringe in 2006
  15. 15. Car-houses
  16. 16. Landscrapers (2002)
  17. 17. Neighborhood near Tartu (2006)
  18. 18. Suburban pattern (2006)
  19. 19. Issued construction permits for the detached and apartment houses
  20. 20. Cul-de-sac Elite neigborhoods
  21. 21. Where is the nearest school, kindergardens, shop, pub?
  22. 22. Garden city <ul><li>Planning according to the green network </li></ul><ul><li>Strict restrictions: semi-natural landscapes </li></ul><ul><li>Keeping ecological functions </li></ul><ul><li>Recreational function </li></ul><ul><li>Public access (water bodies etc) </li></ul>
  23. 23. N ew suburban settlements
  24. 24. Population change i n the fringe
  25. 25. Population growth forecast in the fringe
  26. 26. Annual growth of average monthly gross salaries in the fringe
  27. 27. Traffic frequency at the Tartu city perimeter: growth 5% 2005/2006 Stratum, 2006 City center Perimeter In Out
  28. 28. Traffic frequency in 2007
  29. 29. Highway landscape Separation of l ight traffic and pavements. Features of highways destroy city environment and scare pedestrians
  30. 30. Ecological footprint of the Tartu suburbanites 76% 0.90 5000 kWh Household energy 9% 0.11 200 m 2 Construction 15% 0.18 20 km Transport gha/ cap / y Unit
  31. 31. Devolution in urban planning system conservative / ad ho c <ul><li>Legal framework is liberal in issuing planning and construction permits </li></ul><ul><li>Moderate or non-existent intervention of central government </li></ul><ul><li>G eneral plans become outdated, replaced by ad hoc decisions of municipal politicians </li></ul><ul><li>Poor management, auditing and inspection of developments </li></ul>
  32. 32. Suburb as battlefield? <ul><li>NIMBY – Suburbanities challenge biased and over-development balancing suburban living quality </li></ul><ul><li>Expectations of develops and suburbanites differs </li></ul><ul><li>Regeneration urban space </li></ul>
  33. 33. How to suburbanize? * Network-city: neighborhood, surrounding similarly important, spatial unity * County service centers * Center-periphery * Structural diversity
  34. 34. How to suburbanize? * The indicators’ approach as an efficient analytical tool for planning support systems. * T o control urban expansion so that urban areas can develop in a more sustainable manner. * T he planning quality using participatory means