PV Market Navigator product presentation


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PV Market Navigator is an in depth market analysis for easier understanding of worldwide photovoltaic markets provided by eclareon (http://www.eclareon.eu/).
All reports are updated quarterly.
PV Market Navigator the 1st comprehensive tool for market entry and ongoing analysis for any international company and investor in the photovoltaic industry.

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PV Market Navigator product presentation

  1. 1. www. PV-Market-Navigator.comProduct Presentation eclareon Consultants intelligence@eclareon.com; www.eclareon.com Berlin, January 30th 2012Policy Consulting Market Intelligence Strategy Consulting Business Promotion Financial Advisory
  2. 2. PV MARKET NAVIGATOR MARKET INTELLIGENCE SERVICESThe PV Market Navigator allows clients to monitor key emerging PV markets inan effortless and easy way. Discover sales opportunities in emerging PV markets! Our Country Reports cover licensing & grid connection processes, feed-in tariffs and other subsidy schemes, as well as sales market and industry analysis. They are continuously updated, analytical and well structured PowerPoint presentations and can be accessed directly through a browser presentation mode. Key values • Easy monitoring of key emerging PV markets • Continuous updates over the year • Fast access through online browser presentation • Subscription model with low membership feesFramework Analysis Market Analysis Domestic Industry Analysis • PV Macro Conditions • Market History and Forecast • Sales Channels • PV Policy Framework • Market Segmentation & Distribution • Domestic Manufacturers • PV Regulatory Framework • System Price Levels • Domestic Downstream Companies Source: www.PV-Market-Navigator.com 2
  3. 3. RESEARCH UNIT COMPANY OVERVIEWeclareon’s Research Unit combines a strong renewable energy backgroundwith the ability to conduct interviews in the national language of all 27 EUcountries. • The eclareon research unit covers all administrative languages of the 27 EU countries • Researchers are trained and experienced with a strong renewable energy background and a special focus on support schemes and regulations • The Research Unit is continuously involved in Federal and EU projects that require interviews with key stakeholders all over Europe (RES Legal, PV Legal, RES Integration) 3
  4. 4. ECLAREON NETWORK COMPANY OVERVIEWDue to past and ongoing projects, eclareon has access to the latest PV marketdata in all main and emerging PV markets in Europe. Cooperation with Industry Associations on EU and National Level Activities • Data collection on PV markets, support schemes and regulatory frameworks • Conjoint work with associations and think tanks in project consortia • Chairman of the “Export Group Photovoltaics” of the German Solar Industry Association “BSW Solar” • Director of ASIF (Spanish PV Association ) - the leading Spanish PV association • Member of European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) Recent Projects • PV Legal – Database on administrative processes and barriers concerning the planning and installation of PV systems • PV Radar – Continuous collection of information about national and regional support schemes for PV in all 27 EU Member States • RES Legal – Database on the support schemes for electricity from renewable sources 4
  5. 5. ECLAREON NETWORK COMPANY OVERVIEWeclareon has worked with and for various other organizations from Ministries toScientific Institutes and maintains valuable contacts. Projects with other Organizations (Public Authorities, Regulators, Scientific Institutes, Energy Agencies, Trade Agencies) Activities • Ongoing surveys and interviews with key stakeholders from the above mentioned organizations in the EU 27 countries • Ongoing cooperation with the worldwide network of German Chambers of Commerce in organizing business trips including a targeted matchmaking with relevant local companies • Cooperation with a diverse network of German and foreign experts for information events in Germany and abroad Recent Projects • RES Integration – Analyzes of the Member State’s practice and evaluation of the process of integrating Renewables into the electricity grid and market • PV Export Business Trips (in 2011: USA, Portugal, UK, Turkey, South Africa, Hungary), PV Information Events (in 2011: Australia) • SolarGuidelines India – The project facilitates the dissemination of information to project developers, administrative institutions, financial institutions to ensure timely implementation of solar projects to reach the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) goals 5
  6. 6. ECLAREON SERVICES COMPANY OVERVIEWBased on the experience from over 300 assignments to date, eclareon is able tooffer profound support to foreign market development of clients. Target Market Market Entry Business Market Research Definition Strategy DevelopmentPolicy • Laws and regulation • Analysis and assessment of market • Extensive network consisting of • Support schemes attractiveness regarding political and stakeholders, governmentConsulting legal framework institutions, industry • Grid connection process associations, companiesMarket • Market development, segmentation • Distribution channels, competitive environmentIntelligence • Assessment of market attractivenessStrategy • Assessment of potential target marketsConsulting • Development of an individual market entry strategy • Market cultivation strategiesBusiness • Workshop, targeted business and delegation trips, road show, matchmakingPromotion • Identification of project business opportunitiesFinancial • M&A consultingAdvisory • Project due diligence • Consulting regarding project finance 6
  7. 7. CONTACT MARKET INTELLIGENCE SERVICES Kai Malkwitz Sales Director, PV Market Navigator Kai is a senior manager in the PV industry. He created the worlds leading photovoltaic marketplace pvXchange and was General Manager from 2004 to 2012. Kai established pvXchanges market research as an industry standard for price analysis, price and market forecast, which has been adopted by various stakeholders such as manufacturers, banks, magazines and newspapers as well as major consultancies. Kai is now active as entrepreneur and consultant in the photovoltaic industry. eclareon GmbH www.PV-Market-Navigator.com Luisenstr. 41 Phone: +49 30 258 990 43 10117 Berlin Fax: +49 30 246 286 94 Germany eMail: km@eclareon.com www.eclareon.com 7
  8. 8. eclareon Market Intelligence Country Profile Greece Exemplary Version Christian Grundner eclareon Management Consultants Berlin, May 2011Policy Consulting Market Intelligence Strategy Consulting Business Promotion Financial Advisory
  9. 9. AGENDAAgenda• PV Framework – Natural Conditions, Economic and PV Indicator’s• PV Support and Regulation – Support Schemes, Administrative Process and Grid Connection• PV Sales Market – Volume, Segmentation, Regional Distribution, PV Prices, Drivers and Barriers• Domestic PV Industry – Distribution Channels, Leading Domestic Companies 9
  10. 10. AGENDAAgendaPV Framework • Natural Conditions • Economic Indicators • Energy and Electricity Sector • Overview on PV IndicatorsPV Support and RegulationPV Sales MarketDomestic PV Industry 10
  11. 11. SOLAR IRRADIATION FRAMEWORK ANALYSISEspecially southern and central Greece offers very favorable solar irradiationlevels for PV installations. Average energy yield Climatic Region (in kWh/kWp) Northern Greece 1100 – 1300 Central Greece 1200 – 1400 Southern Greece 1400 – 1600 (Islands) Germany 850 Source: JRC European Commission PVGIS (05/2011) 11
  12. 12. NATURAL CONDITIONS FRAMEWORK ANALYSISThe plain regions east of the Pindus mountain range with dry climate are mostsuitable for PV applications. In addition, the vast number of islands allow forbroad application of off-grid installations. Topography • Greece primarily has a Mediterranean climate, featuring mild, wet winters and hot, dry summers. This climate occurs at all coastal locations, including Athens, the Cyclades, the Dodecanese, Crete, the Peloponnese and parts of the Central Continental Greece. The Pindus mountain range strongly affects the climate of the country, as areas to the west of the range are considerably wetter on average (due to greater exposure to south-westerly systems bringing in moisture) than the areas lying to the east of the range (due to a rain shadow effect). • Greece features a vast number of islands, between 1200 and 6000, depending on the definition,227 of which are inhabited. Crete is the largest and most populous, Euboea, separated from the mainland by the 60m-wide Euripus Strait, is the second largest island, followed by Rhodes and Lesbos. • Expansive plains are primarily located in the prefectures of Thessaly, Central Macedonia and Thrace. They constitute key economic regions as they are among the few arable places in the country. Source: eclareon Intelligence (05/2011) 12
  13. 13. ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURE FRAMEWORK ANALYSISDespite rigorous government budget cuts, a credit default of Greece is stilllikely. While this would negatively impact the PV market, the recent overhaul ofthe administration might have a positive impact on PV regulations in future. Administrative divisions • From 1 January 2011, in accordance with the Kallikratis plan (Law 3852/2010), the administrative system of Greece was drastically overhauled. The former system of 13 peripheries, 54 prefectures and 1033 municipalities and communities was replaced by 7 decentralized administrations, 13 peripheries and 325 municipalities. The peripheries and municipalities are fully self-governed. The decentralized administrations are run by a general secretary appointed by the Greek Government. Economic Crisis • On 15 November 2010, the EUs statistics body Eurostat revised the public finance and debt figure for Greece following an excessive deficit procedure methodological mission in Athens and put Greeces 2009 government deficit at 15.4% of Key country indicators GDP and government debt at 126.8% of GDP making it the • Population (2010e): 11,305,118 biggest deficit (as a percentage of GDP) amongst the EU • GDP Total (PPP, 2010e): Total $329.113 billion / Per capita $29,419 member nations. • GDP Growth (2010): - 4,2 % • On 25 July 2011, Moodys downgraded Greeces credit rating • Inflation (2010): 4,7% due to an increased risk of default, raising the likelihood that • Unemployment (12/2010): 14.1% the country may have to restructure its debt. The current classification is as the lowest junkbond. Source: Eurostat (05/2011) 13
  14. 14. ENERGY CONDITIONS FRAMEWORK ANALYSISThe grid network is fairly developed but still missing greater connectionsbetween the mainland and the island. Therefore off-grid solutions are stillwelcome in those regions. Grid structure • Weak connections to peripheral areas • Main development in the surrounding of Athens and north area • Part of the mainland grid is still not strong enough to support great expansion of installed capacity • New investments suspended due to cut back in the general country budgets Grid operator • The national grid operator mainland is PPC • Stated-owned company not privatized yet • The company acts also as energy provider with own facilities • The company hinders the connection of new PV energy production sites • The company has several internal issues and corruption accusations Source: eclareon Intelligence (05/2011) 14
  15. 15. ELECTRICITY CONDITIONS FRAMEWORK ANALYSISThe impact of electricity sector deregulation and increasing utility rates alsofavors the attractiveness of PV for investors. Key characteristics & trends Implications for PV sector • Greece is lagging behind deregulation of • PV sector is still heavily determined by public electricity market – strong pressure from EU to authorities& former monopolists (PPC & Co) – move forward the regulatory framework is & will be the main • Privatisation has led to independent regulator market barrier in the next years (RAE), unbundling & privatisation of public • PV is already in the focus of utilities & large utility (PPC), as well as favourable regulations electricity project promoters (e.g. wind), mainly for independent power producers interested in large projects • Still strong concentration of electricity • PPC has set up renewable subsidiary to invest production, production and distribution in in wind, PV & Co (50 MW project planned) hands of former monopolists (PPC). themselves • After the last budget rescue coming from the EU, • It also yet builds obstacles for PV promotors in a new wave of privatization, concerning also the providing grid connection, especially for large electrical sector, is expected and required. competitors (many complaints to regulator RAE • Grid infrastructure split in various regional pending) power networks Source: eclareon Intelligence (05/2011) 15
  16. 16. ENERGY PRICES FRAMEWORK ANALYSISElectricity prices for private and industrial consumers are below EU27 averageand where stable over the past years.0.25 0.25 0.23 0.24 Germany 0.210.20 0.20 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.16 EU270.15 0.14 0.13 Germany 0.15 0.13 0.11 EU27 0.12 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Greece0.10 0.09 Greece 0.100.05 0.05 07H2 08H1 08H2 09H1 09H2 10H1 07H2 08H1 08H2 09H1 09S2 10H1 Electricity Price Industrial Consumer Electricity Price Private Consumer All Tax and VAT included All Tax and VAT included 500 MWh<Consumption< 2 000 MWh 2 500 kWh<Consumption< 5 000 kWh Source: Eurostat 05/2011 16
  17. 17. ECONOMICS FRAMEWORK ANALYSISSince the EU and the IMF bailed out Greece in 2010, the economical situation isremains highly uncertain. However, PV investments are still attractive (highIRR) due to the political support of the RES development. Overview: IRR forecast till 2015. From 2015 onward no clear policy defined yet, therefore hard to predict accurately • PV Market in Greece with high profitability rates, but depending on the subsidy Not Grid-connected island less 100 KW concession • The IRR would vary heavily if the subsidy is Grid-connected less100 KW not endorsed Not Grid-connected island over 100 Kw • The island and small roof-top markets assure a better profitability than the big ground mounted parks Grid-connected over 100 Kw • Nevertheless in any case, the general perspective rely upon the governments attitude towards future subsides • To match profitability with a non-subsidy Assumptions: scenario, cost have to fall dramatically 2015 • 25 % of capital equity, 40 % of subsidy onwards. • Rest coming from private loans • In case the investment cost does not fall • 15 years of loan duration drastically, projects in the Greek market from • Project costs: 5700 € / kW 2015 and onwards will not be profitable. Source: eclareonIntelligence (05/2011) 17
  18. 18. AGENDAAgendaPV FrameworkPV Support and Regulation • Support scheme • Administrative process • Grid connection processPV Sales MarketDomestic PV Industry 18
  19. 19. PV SUPPORT SCHEME FRAMEWORK ANALYSISThe feed-in tariff in Greece remains quite positive for further investmentsdespite the economical downturn. Feed-in Tariff system Rooftop Mainland grid (€/MWh) • The system clearly favours the Rooftop system, Year of signing the Systems < Autonomous island grids Month which have the higher purchase price and payment contract 10 KWp >10kWp (€/MWh) (€/MWh) > 100 Kwp < 100 kWp time. • Nevertheless, the conditions for long ground mounted parks are also really favourable and 2009 400 450 450 attractive for investments • In the islands the future seems promising for off- grid solutions with attractive tariffs in the close 2010 550 392,04 441,05 441,05 August future. • Furthermore, the system includes also an inflation February 372,83 419,43 419,43 2011 correction covering the 25% percent of previous August 351,01 394,88 394,88 year inflation. 333,81 375,53 375,53 • Time Horizon of minimum 20 years, maximum 25 2012 522,5 February years. August 314,27 353,56 353,56 February 298,38 336,23 336,23 2013 496,38 281,38 316,55 316,55 Investment support August 268,94 302,56 302,56 • The Greek government seeks promoting RES 2014 471,56 February insofar achieving energetic independence of August 260,97 293,59 293,59 imported oil and gas • To do so, the National Developmental Law was set Tariff Payment 25 years into force 20 Years • Attractive subsidy program for PV projects, with still complicate burocratical process. Inflation adjustment Adjusted partially ( 25% of last year´s Consumer´s Price Index ) annually • In the past source of bottleneck, it triggered the pop-up of a second market in which preliminary stage projects are sold to further or more capable Other incentives The residential PV system is no longer considered a business activity, thereby the investors. income from the electricity sale is tax free. Source: eclareon Intelligence (05/2011) 19
  20. 20. SUBSIDY SCHEMES FRAMEWORK ANALYSISAt the moment the grants by the Ministry of Economics to commercial investorsare drawing most attention – and at the same time create a bottleneck. Investment law 3522/06 TEMPTE - ETEAN Fiscal incentives FO.S Program Cheap loans for small Tax free for private Higher FIT, no tax on Type of support Investment grants (among investors and household business activities, scheme other incentives) consumers installations private loan facilities Investment law in place In place since 09/2006, Investment law in Law 3734/2009 (article Start / duration since 01/2009, active till deadline for place since 01/2009 27A), till 12/2015 31/12/2030 applications 31/8/2011 Commercial Investors in Private investors Projects > € 100.000,- Small & medium Householders Beneficiaries Only PV off-grid Maximum of 2 MW installed entreprises (SME) Small business power. systems 20- 40% of investment cost Max. 20% of No initial subsidy Level of support Max. 6% of interest rate (depending on region & investment cost Long term contract (max. amount) Max. loan € 300.000 system type) Max. € 700,- Only in mainland Authority in charge Economics Ministry& ETEAN, Company Fiscal authorities of application regional authorities responsible for the Fiscal authorities process (depending on size) TEMPTE found Commercial banks Open, but amount of Current state / applications already Open, depending on Open and applicable Open and applicable outlook exceeding bureaucratic collateral local bank. capacity Assessment of relevance High Low High Medium Source: New renewable energy action plan 2011, eclareon Intelligence ( 05/2011) 20
  21. 21. REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FRAMEWORK ANALYSISThe administrative process has been amended in 2009 but it is still overcomewith some serious bottlenecks Main administrative steps for PV projects > 20 kW in Greece Environmen- Grid Electricity Installation &Phase tal permit Building connection & production operation (&other permit feed-in license (EPL) licenses approvals) contract (PPA) Regulator RAE Region Municipality Utilities RegionAuthority in (Development (Environmental (e.g. Building (DESMIE/DIE (Planningcharge : Ministry) Dept & others) Dept.) & PPC) Dept.) • Only for roof-top • Preliminary • No full-grown • Grid-connection • Application ofMain environmental building permit, but application to installation projects over 1 MWadministrative • In every case for assessment formal approval DESMIE or PPC licencesteps: ground-mounted • Final approval required • Feed-in-contract • Application of facilities • Further approvals • Special with DESMIE or operation in special zones requirements in PPC license before (historic, nature, special zones & commissioning etc.) constructions (e.g. transformer house)Critical • Huge barrier due • High barrier due • Considerable • Considerable • Currently no bigassessment / to RAE to lack of clarity barrier due to lack barrier (esp. issue yet, sincepotential overcharge • Clarification of of clarity & PPC) most projectschanges • Clearly favours requirements by diversity on • PPC is a direct stuck in EPL small projects Environmental municipal level competitor with Ministry own project expected development Source : eclareonIntelligence (05/2011) 21
  22. 22. REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FRAMEWORK ANALYSISThe administrative procedure is still rather complicated but it shows hugedifferences according to the size and location of the installation Administrative procedure for roof-top installations: Steps Less than 10 Kw 10 to 100 Kw 100 to 1000 kW Over 1 MW Apply to the local utility office Apply to the local utility office Get a small works permit from Apply to the Regulatory 1 for grid connection and sign a for grid connection the local Urban Planning office Authority for Energy (RAE) for contract for selling electricity a Production License to the grid Sign a contract with the Apply to the local utility office Once Production License is 2 System Operator (DESMIE) for for grid connection acquired, apply to the Region selling electricity to the grid for an Installation License Sign a contract with the Get a small works permit from 3 System Operator (DESMIE) for the local Urban Planning office selling electricity to the grid Apply to the System Operator 4 Projects under 4 steps usually completed between (DESMIE) for grid connection 6 and 12 months. Sign a contract with the 5 System Operator (DESMIE) for Projects over 4 steps usually requires around 18 selling electricity to the grid months Apply to the Region for an 6 Operation License Source: Hellenic Association of Photovoltaic Companies (05/2011) 22
  23. 23. REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FRAMEWORK ANALYSISIn the case of ground-mounted parks, the procedure is in any case morecomplicated Administrative procedure for Ground-mounted installations: Steps Less than 500 KW 500 KW to 1000 KW Over 1 MW Apply to the Region for an exemption from environmental Apply to the Regulatory Authority Apply to the Region for an 1 permitting (or apply for an environmental permit if needed – usually only for protected areas) environmental permit for Energy (RAE) for a Production License Once Production License is Get a small works permit from the local Urban Planning Get a small works permit from the acquired, apply to the Region for 2 office local Urban Planning office an Installation License (includes environmental permit) Apply to the local (<100 kWp) or regional (>100 kWp) utility Apply to the regional utility office Get a small works permit from the 3 office for grid connection for grid connection local Urban Planning office Sign a contract with the System Sign a contract with the System Operator (DESMIE) for Apply to the System Operator 4 selling electricity to the grid Operator (DESMIE) for selling electricity to the grid (DESMIE) for grid connection Sign a contract with the System 5 Operator (DESMIE) for selling electricity to the grid Projects for ground-mounted park requires time- windows of around 18 and 24 months. Apply to the Region for an 6 Operation License Source: Hellenic Association of Photovoltaic Companies (05/2011) 23
  24. 24. AGENDAAgendaPV FrameworkPV Support and RegulationPV Sales Market • Market Volume and Segmentation • PV Prices • Drivers and BarriersDomestic PV Industry 24
  25. 25. MARKET HISTORY MARKET ANALYSISThe new legislation applied to the Greek market has produced clear results andthe market has reached the pre-steady state, thought better administrativeperspectives can help in the near future Market monitoring (figures, data sources) 205 • Lack of reliable, up-to-date data • Company figures published by Aleo Solar (150 MW whole market in 2010) 150 • Sales statistics based on company surveys byEMBRYONIC STAGE START-UP STAGE Helapco (not 100% reliable) Market history until 2006 – embryonic stage Annual installed • The photovoltaic market was practically inexistent, only supported by the boom of the mobile network Cumulative In MWp development • Very few grid-tied plants < 100 kW 55 • No larger projects > 150 kW whatsoever 37 • Nevertheless, broad market regarding solar thermal applications, present since the 80´s 19 7 8 10 Current market development since 2007 – 1 2 start-up stage 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 • High demand created by new FiT (licensing applications) since 2006 Old FiT CurrentFiT • 2010 witnessed the resolution of the first administrative bottleneck OPE subsidy scheme Investment Law • Main interest on medium-to-large projects, while small residential market < 20 kW is due to bloom in the next step Source: Helapco, eclareonIntelligence (05/2011) 25
  26. 26. MARKET SEGMENTATION MARKET ANALYSISThe different regions show different dynamics according to the different FiTrates to be applied as well as grid connection issues and the PPA contractswith PPC. 39.1 36.1 36.6 30.6in MW 20.3 16.8 12.6 8.3 3.0 2.8 0.1 0.0 Attica Central Central Eastern Epirus Ionian Peloponnese South Thessalia Thessaloniki Western Western Greece Macedonia Macedonia Islands Aegean Greece Macedonia and ThraceRegional Distribution • So far the biggest expansion of PV installations can be seen in the central regions • Those regions have remarkable industrial presence thus the grid is stronger • In the past the government has shown increased attention towards these industrial areas • The islands are still in the early stage of development but stronger growth is expected for the near future • So far the government has made no announcement about geographical caps, although in practice the local grid and especially the island connection can be a bottleneck Source: DEMIE gridoperator, eclareonintelligence (05/2011)) 26
  27. 27. MARKET SEGMENTATION MARKET ANALYSIS The medium to very large ground mounted park still prevails in the market, though other sectors are becoming larger, like rooftop, thanks to the new governmental policy 96 Market Segmentation • Dominant market segment between 20 and 150 kW. Among this group, the leading role is taken by small-scale plants • Large scale solar parks quite large segment due to higher profitability with old FIT More attractive FiT 47 • Tendency moving slowly towards smallerover the coming years 39 scale, target group for the new FIT policy • Off-grid installations with the best FIT are Installed expected to grow exponential in the near 21 capacity future in MW 7 7 Off-grid Rooftop PV < 20 < PV < 150 KW PV > < 20 KW 20 kw 150 KW < PV < 2 MW 2 MW Source: DEMIE, eclareonIntelligence (05/2011) 27
  28. 28. MARKET DRIVERS & BARRIERS MARKET ANALYSISThe regulatory framework is the main barrier for growth at the moment. Thebottleneck from 2009 is being solved, but still the administrative procedure isenormously time-consuming. Framework conditions Key driver or barrier Assessment of current state Assessment of future(volume setting factor) 2011 development 2012-2015• Political market caps • Diffuse market caps not clearly • Might be completely cancelled announced, and not reached in in the future the current situation• Attractiveness of PV investments • No limiting factor, but main • No limiting factor, but driver determined by public support market driver (very high also in the future (PV will stay schemes, interest rates, utility attractiveness leading to attractive enough to fuel rates, etc. explosive demand) demand)• Reliability of the governmental • IMF and EU bailed out the country • Risk premium certainly high frame and political perspectives in 2010 to avoid an official nowadays, can deter credit bankruptcy. concession on international • Environmental assessment and context• Regulatory barriers (licensing, grid connection extremely hard to • The last law introduced subsidy process, etc.), esp. for achieve, main barrier due to time changes, but there is no large projects > 1 MW consumption predictable effect to be seen• Insufficient grid infrastructure to • Limiting factor in some peripheral • May turn out to be limiting support PV installations regions factor in more and more regions Source: eclareonintelligence (05/2011) 28
  29. 29. MARKET DRIVERS & BARRIERS MARKET ANALYSISThanks to the governmental efforts, corruption is being shortened. Nevertheless,local networking is the keystone for success. Market conditions (demand side) Key driver or barrier Assessment of current state Assessment of future(volume setting factor) 2011 development 2012-2015• Electricity demand incl. need • No limiting factor, neither market • No limiting factor, possibly even for alternative solutions driver (increasing slowly due to market driver in the future economical turndown) (increasing demand)• Speculation, corruption & low • Certainly limiting factor, but not • It is unlikely that speculation and quality leading to high prices & decisive for current market growth especially corruption can be deterring of serious investors overcome since it is part of the Greek society• Customer awareness & • Serves as a driver, although • Customer awareness will willingness to buy - takes time divergence between general interest increase but the question is & serious investment stance) whether Greek households will have the money to invest in PV• Market momentum (once a • Market driver thanks to considerable • Future market development will market has reached a critical investments of the PV industry since be strongly influenced by a mass / relevance it cannot 2008, more than 700 MW already possible dept default that would break down in the short term commissioned in the pipeline most likely influence the feed-in tariff and further deter investors Source: eclareon intelligence (05/2011) 29
  30. 30. MARKET DRIVERS & BARRIERS MARKET ANALYSISThe industry is catching up faster and several local players have jointoperations with international brands, producing an almost mature industry ableto cope with current demand. Industry conditions Key driver or barrier Assessment of current state Assessment of future(volume setting factor) 2011 development 2012-2015• Professional supply • Used to be a limiting factor, but • Due to high efforts of PV industry, structures & know-how, esp. the growth of the market has they will be quite competitive in by installers and generally for stimulated competence and the near future larger-scale projects > 100 kW companies accumulate • Eventually can become a major experience market driver • The supply is enough, specially • Will be no limiting factor in the• Supply shortages, esp. for since other major markets like future due to easing supply modules Spain or Germany are in an in situation for modules pass right now. Can be consider • Potential over supply situation on a limited market driver global scale may even turn out to be a driver (high availability of cheap modules for Greek market) Source: eclareonIntelligence (05/2011) 30
  31. 31. MARKET FORECAST MARKET ANALYSIS The four main market segments show very different dynamics. Off grid < 20 kW 20 -150 kW 150 – 2.000 kW > 2MW • Until 2007 majority • Segment was badly • Clearly the main • Immense pipeline of • Already over 40 MW of new installations hurt by the market so far, projects (700 MW installed (> 1 MW p.a.) administrative especially projects already with PPA • Several big utilities barrier present in the just below 100 kW according to has announced more • However, demand old law. Since 2010 due to FiT structure DEMIE); most < 1 projects in the field Status “wiped away” by situation has MWp, though bigger • The FiT does not former FiT law changed projects are already ease this group dramatically and a operational specially new tendency can be witnessed • Specially important the rooftop market • Big growth forecast • Expected to develop • Very good prospects • Good prospects in • Moderate perspective due to the new FIT from 2011 on in the already in the short- medium term (> 30% in the short term, applied to wake of new special term (> 30-40% share) Greece enjoys autonomous island regulations, which market share), • Perspectives in the extremely high sun grids considers no more specially in the long term are not so radiation whichProspects • Exports to the small market under 100 positive, as the market favours scale neighbour countries installations as KW will reach a grid- installations taxable business. overload. • The grid development High market share, and the PPC attitude over 30% expected will be crucial Source: eclareon intelligence (05/2011) 31
  32. 32. MARKET FORECAST MARKET ANALYSISThe Greek market offers really promising opportunities regarding the radiationand legal frame. Nevertheless, the general economics situation seems reallyworrying for the future Cumulative capacity in MW Market perspectives 2,400 • The law ensures promising perspectives, combining attractive FiT with highest radiation levels in Europe. 2,000 NREAP • The industry is taking off and maturing, giving a supply Forecast side well prepared for a steady market 1,600 • The general economical frame is at the utmost concern • However, credits and loans for new PV installations are not threatened so far. 1,200 • It is expected a big bloom in demand, companies involved in the field yearning still plenty MWs of large solar parks. 800 700 • In the fist semester 2011, 50 MW have been already 500 installed. 400 • The government recognizes an official pipeline of more 206 than 700 MW projects already awarded with an official PPA. 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Average yearly installed capacity is estimated to reach around 200 to 300 MW Source: New Renewable Energy Action Plan 2010, eclareon intelligence (05/2011) 32
  33. 33. AGENDAAgendaPV FrameworkPV Support and RegulationPV Sales MarketDomestic PV Industry 33
  34. 34. RETAIL BUSINESS PV INDUSTRY The small segment of the market is dominated by small size companies with a long trajectory on the Greek Market, who usually use German manufacturers PV distribution value chain (components & kits for small systems) Manufacturers Wholesalers/ Rooftop Final distributors client installations Installers / contractors Standard plants Dominant channels for standard modules by manufacturers: 2-TIER- Conergy Greece Conergy DISTRIBUTION Small investors(by manufacturers) Aleo Solar Seners 3-TIER- DISTRIBUTION Heliosphera Photovoltaic Local contractors (via solar Solon wholesalers) Data Energy Solar Cocoon Solar Small investors Silcio DentaTexnik Alexakis Energy Aleo Solar Source: eclareonIntelligence (05/2011) 34
  35. 35. PROJECT BUSINESS PV INDUSTRY The big solar parks are a target for many local manufacturers, who are establishing their subsidiaries EPC for the sake of it. PV distribution value chain (components & kits for big systems) Manufacturers EPC contractors Final client Installers / Contractors/ Standard (often only sub-contracted) Project plants developers Dominant channels for standard modules by manufacturers: 2-TIER- RENI Exel DISTRIBUTION(by manufacturers) Solar Cell Hellas Solarice Investors Aleo Solar RSEnergy 3-TIER- HeliospheraDISTRIBUTION Activus (via EPC Solon Local contractors Advartia contractos) Silcio Small investors Photovoltaic Prime Energy Aleo Solar Data Energy Biosar Schüco Source: eclareon Interviews (05/2011) 35
  36. 36. UP / MID STREAM INDUSTRY PV INDUSTRYToday 5 upstream module manufacturers are based in Greece. The factories arebrand new and they are seeking cover local demand and increase presence inforeign markets • Silicon / ingot / wafer manufacturers Current Location • Since 2009 two full operative wafer Company Products Technology manufacturers in Greece capacity 2011 (region) • Cell / module manufacturers PV modules • c-Si • Until 2007 only Energy Solutions with Exel Solar 75 MWp Kilkis Mounting Systems • Poly-Si operations in Bulgaria • Since 2009 5 new projects known with PV thin film • a-Si local production HelioSphera 65 MWp Tripolis Modules • µc-Si • According to Invest Agency, many foreign manufacturers will set up sites Wafers to serve the Greek market. So far, only Silcio Cells • Poly c-Si Around 30 MW Maroussi foreign capital has arrived, but not PV modules manufacturers themselves Wafers “By 2010 certainly a large part of domestic Solar Cells Cells • Poly c-Si 110 MW Athens demand, as well as in our neighbour PV modules countries will be served from Greek production sites (150-170 MW in total, of Solar collectors • Poly c-Si which 50-70 MW by Greek ventures” Stibetherm n. a. Kilkis C. Protogeropoulos (Solar Cells) PV Modules Source: eclareoninterviews (05/2011) 36
  37. 37. DOWNSTREAM INDUSTRY PV INDUSTRYThe markets enjoys already a overspread capillarity with an abundant numberof local EPC and small local installers, while several foreign companies aremoving in. Nevertheless, the wholesale function is carried out mainly byGerman companies Player groups Player groups • Since many years Conergy Greece was a clear leader in the small segment, with Important players the presence also of local contractors like Photovoltaiks or Seners (first purely (system (operations in Greece) Greek company) integrators) • Most Greek players mainly so far focus on contracting / engineering rather than • Photovoltaiks real wholesaling • Helio Systems • Many new players have entered the arena since the 2009 much more positive • DATA Sun Energy legislation Solar specialists • Activus Market entry strategies of newcomers • Advartis • Due to lack of professional local firms “go alone” approach is the typical option (system integrators) • DentaTexnik (exception Conergy) • Seners • Most have established sales offices or subsidiaries since 2007, usually with local personnel (4-5 people) • Abakus Solar • The local firms have learned and are using the know-how of foreign companies trough trainee programs Foreign PV players • ConergyGreece • Due to the administrative complexity of the Mediterranean style, a local partner (system integrators / developers, • Sibetherm is almost at every occasion needed. investors) • Aleo Solar, Solon Commercial strategies & structures • All large SI plan to serve small retail (as system supplier) & large project • Building / construction / business (as contractor) alike Newcomers from heavy industries: • All have supply agreement with 3+ leading manufacturers (modules & other adjacent industries • RSEnergy components) to provide complete portfolio (utilities, building, • Solarice • All plan to develop reseller networks across the country (trainings, etc.) – some construction, • PPC Greek players use existing structures from adjacent industries wholesale) • Biosar “If you ask me, eventually the Greek market requires not more than 5-6 country wide • Prime Energy wholesalers / system integrators. And the Germans know this business best.” CEO, Biosar Source: eclareon intelligence (05/2011) 37
  38. 38. UTILITIES PV INDUSTRYPPC Renewables is the only utility so far being active in the photovoltaic field.Though few projects are already finished, a pipeline over 50 MW is alreadycomisioned • The Greek electricity sector is under pressure & undergoing dramatic changes: - PPC has lost its monopoly and is heavily criticized for failing to meet requirements resulting from soaring energy demand - Indeed, the monopoly is still hold by PPC and the government receives constant critics about further liberalization - The crisis has stopped any further privatization so far, but a close debt restructuring can change future perspective dramatically - Huge investments are required to increase both grid infrastructure & production facilities – impossible for incumbent Greek players to handle this challenge alone. - A lot of new entrants competing with PPC, both foreign utilities (Endesa, Iberdrola, EDF, RWE, etc.) and Greek groups apply for licenses for power plants incl. PV – some already appear in RAE licensing statistics - PV firms are keen on securing contracting jobs from those big investors (call for tenders) • Many rumors about PV activities of utilities: - PPC Renewable & others are investing in RES projects esp. wind – 62 MW are already operational and 32 are being built - German utilities have announced to invest in big PV projects in Southern Europe incl. Greece. - Several big EPC’s announced projects fall out of the scheme as the licensing process deter many competitors - “Undercover” activities by foreign utilities like Iberdrola (securing land/sites, etc.); Source: eclareonIntelligence (05/2011) 38
  39. 39. AGENDAAgendaFramework analysis - key characteristics & trendsMarket analysis – segmentation & growthCompetitive analysis – industry structureCompany analysis – domestic PV companies in Greece (18 profiles) • Module Manufacturers • System integrators and EPC contractors • Project developer 39
  40. 40. EXEL SOLAR GREEK MANUFACTURERSExcel Solar is a new manufacturer with a strong marketing performance,ambitious goals and large trajectory in close business fields. Company background and history • The group was founded in 2001 with the aim of gaining a wining position in the renewable energy field, coming from the steal sector • It has an integral structure covering the whole supply chain, from the module manufacturer till the EPC contractor Business model and service lines • 2 different modern plants: one focus on module manufacturing and the other on mounting systems • Bioclimatic plant, state-of-the-art technology to endorse high quality standards and full working warranties Ind.AreaStavrochori • Broad plan capacity, around 75 MW per year B.S 20, Street 12 61100 Kilkis Market segment target Τel: +00302341072206 • The module manufacturer offers modules to every level of the Fax:+00302341071526 industry http://www.exelgroup.gr • The mounting systems plant focus on large scaled mounted park structures • Active export policy towards new markets, for instance Italy Performance & references • Several projects already completed • Aiming to be working at full capacity during 2011 Source: eclareonIntelligence (05/2011) 40
  41. 41. HELIOSPHERA GREEK MANUFACTURERSHeliosphera was one of the pioneers in the Greek module manufacturing marketand nowadays has a strong international projection Company background and history • Founded in 2007, the factory began production in 2009 • Main shareholders from the USA • Nowadays more than 180 workers and collaboration R&D programs with Greek universities Business model and service lines • Biggest European manufacturer of micromorph thin film modules • New factory with 60 MW annual production capacity • The chain manufacturer provider was Oerlikon Solar, reputed Swiss Producer Industrial Zone of Tripolis Building Block 8, Street 5 Market segment target Tripolis, 22100 Tel: +30 2710 230860 • The aim of the company is to have a leading position in Europe Fax: +30 2710 230869 in the micromorph segment. www.heliosphera.com • The achieve it, they are developing a strategic alliance network around Europe • The biggest market for the company nowadays is Italy Performance & references • More than 10 MW already installed. • Big pipeline announced with projects all over Europe Source: eclareonIntelligence (05/2011) 41
  42. 42. SILCIO GREEK MANUFACTURERSSilcio is the technological reference in the Greek manufacturer sector with animpressive new plant and excellent quality standards Company background and history • Founded in 2005, the factory began production in 2009 • Main shareholders from Greece • The company group is active in the energy field since 1997, being the new factory the latest spin-off Business model and service lines • One of the few Greek integral manufacturer, from the wafer till the mounting system. • The main products are polycrystalline silicon wafers, PV cells and PV modules. • New factory with different production capacity: Wafers: 45 MW 38-40 KapodistriouAv, Cells: 31 MW 15123 Maroussi, Athens PV Modules: 19 MW Tel : +30 210 6101150 Market segment target Fax: +30 210 6838215 www.silcio.gr • The aim of the company is to lead the technological breakthrough in the Greek market • The export ratio of the company is growing, not being limited to the national range Performance & references • Several MW already installed Source: eclareonIntelligence (05/2011) 42
  43. 43. SOLAR CELL HELLAS GREEK MANUFACTURERSSolar Cell Hellas has develop a broad company group and nowadays has thebiggest annual production of the Greek market. Company background and history • Founded in 2007, the factory began production in 2008 • Several production sites with more then 300 working force Business model and service lines • Biggest Greek producer, with an installed capacity for PV modules over 110 MW • One of the few Greek integral manufacturer, from the wafer till the mounting system. • The main products are multi-crystalline silicon wafers, PV cells and PV modules. • New factory with different production capacity: Wafers: 60 MW Cells: 60 MW 170, Sygrou Avenue PV Modules: 110 MW 17671 Athens Tel: +30 210 9595 159 Market segment target Fax: + 30 210 9537 618 • The aim of the company is to be the first vertical integrated www.schellas.gr producer for the southern European market • The company has a company group covering the whole production chain, with an EPC & OM division providing with turnkey solutions and consultancy services Performance & references • Several MW already installed • Contracts with different partners for future cells supply Source: eclareonIntelligence (05/2011) 43
  44. 44. STIBETHERM GREEK MANUFACTURERSStibetherm is a year-long established company, spin-off from the Germansame-named group. From thermal applications they include now also modulesin their portfolio Company background and history • Founded in 1974, the company worked at the beginning as sales distributor of the mother German group • Main shareholders from Germany • The introduce solar thermal solutions, a market they lead, and recently began with the production of PV modules Business model and service lines • Clear dominance in the solar thermal application solutions • Reputed name in the whole country, introducing a broad used technology in Greece • Own factory and also sales serving chain to cover the whole spectrum Industrial Area Kilkis Market segment target 61100 Kilkis • The aim of the company is to provide with hybrid solutions, solar Tel.: +30 2341071380 thermal plus photovoltaic. Fax: +302341071386 • The company has a strong international presence thanks to the www.stibetherm.com mother German group • Expansion strategy to grow in the PV solution area, potential partners searched. Performance & references • Thousands of solar thermal projects installed • Brand new presence in the PV Source: eclareonIntelligence (05/2011) 44
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