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eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

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Despite industry concerns over ad blocking and viewability, 2015 saw strong growth in ad spending on social properties and a major shift toward video. Topics in this webinar include: eMarketer’s latest forecasts for social media marketing and social network ad revenues; Why TV ad dollars will start to flow more steadily toward social in 2016; How livestreaming will be pushed into the mainstream; The importance of influencer marketing and how marketers will address issues of ad blocking and viewability

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eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

  1. 1. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Made possible by Social Marketing Trends for 2016 Debra Aho Williamson Principal Analyst December 3, 2015
  2. 2. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. #1 eMarketer report in 2015 (based on client downloads + views) How do executives predict the future?
  3. 3. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Agenda  Eight Predictions for 2016 – Video – Ad Blocking – Influencer Marketing – Viewability – Cross-Platform Targeting – Buy Buttons – Live Streaming – Messaging Apps  2015 Recap: Social marketing usage and spending
  4. 4. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. 2015 Recap: Social Marketing Usage and Spending
  5. 5. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. 88% of US marketers use social networks for marketing  Facebook and Twitter dominate, but Instagram is coming on quickly
  6. 6. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. US product and services companies are increasing social marketing budgets 10.7% Current 14.0% Next 12 Months Social Media % of Marketing Budget Source: Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, Aug. 2015
  7. 7. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Social networks will take in 18% of all US digital ad spending in 2015 … … and 1 in 5 digital ad dollars in 2016
  8. 8. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Just a few of the many major changes in the social media landscape this year: Instagram opens up to ads Facebook gets 8 billion video views per day Buy buttons emerge
  9. 9. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. What’s in store for 2016?
  10. 10. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Trend #1: TV Ad Dollars Will Start to Flow Toward Social
  11. 11. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Four factors fueling this prediction: #1: Social video’s importance to advertisers  Stat: 60% of the social content Arby’s creates is video, up from 25% in January #2: Facebook  8 billion video views per day (was 4 billion in April 2015) Source: Arby’s, Oct. 2015 Source: Facebook, Nov. 2015
  12. 12. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. #3: Dollars moving from TV to digital, social
  13. 13. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. #4: Facebook adds Target Rating Point (TRP) buying  Common currency to plan and buy across TV and social  Tools like this are helping advertisers feel comfortable increasing social video budgets Image: Digitalart / Freedigitalphotos.net
  14. 14. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. What it means for advertisers:  It’s time to measure TV effectiveness relative to social – Compare TV results to social results, as well as the two together.  Don’t segregate social teams from video teams – It also may not make sense to separate TV buyers from digital and social buyers.  Social attribution will only get better, as TV lags – Facebook and Twitter have tools to measure how ads drive offline purchases. TV can’t compare.
  15. 15. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Trend #2: Social Properties Will Need to Respond to Ad Blocking
  16. 16. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Social properties say they’re not affected, but in fact, they’re concerned Source: Facebook Form 10-Q, Nov. 2015
  17. 17. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Most blockers can’t block ads in apps. However, the ad blockers are getting smarter
  18. 18. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Ad blocking is related to the larger issue of internet user privacy
  19. 19. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. What it means for advertisers: More relevance, less blocking: If consumers “are downloading apps to remove ads from the experience that you’re producing, that’s a pretty strong signal that the ads aren’t relevant.” —Matt Idema, Facebook Go for utility over noise: “I think people are kind of tired of ads that are just trying to grab their attention away from everything they are doing.” —Ben Silbermann, Pinterest, in an Advertising Week 2015 presentation Ad blocking makes earned media even more important: “The opportunity for marketers in social is to live native. Provide editorial content that’s timely and relevant into people’s feeds.” —Marshall Manson, Ogilvy PR UK
  20. 20. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Trend #3: Influencer Marketing Will Go Mainstream
  21. 21. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Only 14% of social media professionals worldwide don’t plan to use influencer marketing Source: Altimeter Group, July 2015
  22. 22. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. It’s a way to get around ad avoidance “We really increased our influencer program in 2015, and going into 2016 we are likely to increase it even more. I think you’ll see more brands doing that as consumers become adept at automatically blocking out ads and as platforms continue to increase the number of ads they deliver.” —Nick Bianchi, AT&T
  23. 23. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Influencers are important to the youth audience US internet users who would be more interested in a brand if it partnered with internet celebrities Source: Trendera, Oct. 2015
  24. 24. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. What it means for advertisers: Allocate budget for influencer marketing: The number of influencer networks is burgeoning, and some, such as the Vine talent agency Niche, now owned by Twitter, are being acquired by the major social platforms. Aim for authenticity: “If people are using influencers, or if they’re promoting content that’s not heavily produced and looks like raw content, people are more likely to pay attention to it and more likely to engage with it.” —Amir Zonozi, Zoomph Choose partners carefully: While anyone can be an influencer, there is a limited supply of people who have the audience size and creative chops to work with major brands.
  25. 25. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Trend #4: The Viewability Debate Will Drag On
  26. 26. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Facebook and Twitter differ on definitions Sources: Facebook, Twitter
  27. 27. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Mobile viewability standards have yet to come out (But even with standards, there’s not likely to be consensus) Image: Chaiwat/Freedigitalphotos.net
  28. 28. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Until there’s agreement, it will come down to dollars “We’re introducing a new buying option that allows advertisers to purchase 100% in-view impressions on Facebook.” This “gives advertisers the option to purchase ad impressions where the entire ad—from top to bottom—has passed through a person’s screen in News Feed.”
  29. 29. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. What it means for advertisers: Advertisers have the upper hand: “As long as marketers continue to put pressure on the publishers to have metrics that make sense to their business, then [the publishers] will have to succumb to that pressure eventually.” —Diana Gordon, Mindshare Social platform deals with Moat look smart: Facebook and Twitter have both agreed to work with third-party verification firm Moat; In October 2015, Moat became the first firm accredited by the Media Ratings Council to monitor mobile ad viewability. Reframing the discussion might bring resolution: In some respects, the debate over viewability is behind the times. A better way to look at it might be whether someone engaged with the ad, rather than simply viewing some portion of it.
  30. 30. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Trend #5: Slow Progress for Cross-Platform Targeting
  31. 31. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. There’s no doubt advertisers like the targeting capabilities in social (particularly Facebook)  In a recent eMarketer report, Facebook was the only property that received an A grade
  32. 32. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Facebook’s Atlas ad server is a new way of thinking about targeting  Cross-device  Cross-platform  Cross-browser  Based on Facebook data  Targets real people, not guesses via cookies
  33. 33. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. But agencies and marketers have a ways to go before they’re fully ready for Atlas What’s Needed? Solid data strategy Defined KPIs Tag management infrastructure “There is a lot of heavy lifting that both agencies and marketers need to do.” —Diana Gordon, Mindshare
  34. 34. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. What it means for advertisers: It’s unclear whether people-based targeting will work for standard banner ads: “I’m a little hesitant about it. Even if that traditional banner ad can use Facebook’s very rich targeting, I think there’s a certain amount of banner blindness” among consumers. —Rob Wolf, Microsoft Social data isn’t the be-all, end-all: Not everyone is a Facebook user. In the US, nearly 40% of internet users don’t use it, eMarketer calculates. Atlas can’t target people for whom it doesn’t have data. Atlas won’t make sense if you’re not ready for it: “If you’re still using social media as a CRM platform or a relevance platform,” it’s not right for you. —Jill Sherman, DigitasLBi North America
  35. 35. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Trend #6: Buy Buttons Will Stay Niche
  36. 36. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Buy buttons are everywhere, but they require a significant change in consumer behavior Images: Instagram, Twitter, Facebook
  37. 37. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. The holidays may not be the positive bellwether some are expecting 48% Percentage of US internet users who say they don’t use social media to help with holiday shopping 9% Percentage who plan to buy directly from a social media site Source: Market Track, Sept. 2015
  38. 38. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Retailers need more time to figure it out
  39. 39. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. What it means for advertisers: Now is the time to test buy buttons: “I think that the next year is going to be [a time to] test and learn, and we'll come out of it understanding how it can be valuable.” —Robin Kamen, Bliss Look for places where social commerce makes sense: On a platform like Pinterest, where consumers often pin things they are interested in doing or buying, purchasing via a buy button might make more sense. Study where your customers are coming from: “A lot of merchants are telling us the majority of customers they’re acquiring through the buy button are net new, which means we’re growing their business.” —Tram Nguyen, Pinterest
  40. 40. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Trend #7: Live-Streaming Video Will Get Real(-Time)
  41. 41. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Twitter’s Periscope is catching on with marketers—for diverse reasons Public relations Influencer marketingPromotions
  42. 42. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Snapchat and Instagram could be next Live Stories are Snapchat’s “most addictive feature.” —Time, Sept. 25, 2015 Images: Snapchat, Wired “Instagram is becoming a formidable news service.” —Wired, Oct. 31, 2015
  43. 43. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. What it means for advertisers: Event sponsorships are perfect platforms: With the growth of video in general, more marketers are publishing edited clips from live events. The next step is simply to livestream from the event, giving users an exclusive peek into the action. Consistent, reliable experiences will help livestreaming grow: Once consumers “start to feel that there is this consistent environment where [livestream] video exists, and it’s reliable and engaging, then I think we’ll start to see it start to scale.” —Diana Gordon, Mindshare Brands have an opportunity: “It’s something that everyone’s tiptoeing around, but no one’s really stepped up to owning it.” —Amir Zonozi, Zoomph
  44. 44. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Trend #8: Messaging Apps Will Be Marketing’s Next Frontier
  45. 45. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. The number of people using mobile messaging is rising fast 43.7% of mobile phone users Source: eMarketer, Nov. 2015 64.6%
  46. 46. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Facebook’s Messenger and WhatsApp are poised to be global powerhouses 900 million monthly active users 700 million monthly active users Source: Facebook, Nov. 2015
  47. 47. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Mobile device users— particularly millennials— are receptive to this kind of marketing
  48. 48. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. What it means for advertisers:  Explore customer service or publishing applications – Before advertising takes hold, eMarketer expects these apps to become places where marketers can conduct customer service and publish content. That’s how marketers first used Twitter.  Functionality and utility will be key – In China, WeChat has become a “Swiss army knife” of information and utility, where users can do everything from make mobile payments to hailing a taxi in addition to messaging and voice or video chatting.
  49. 49. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Reviewing the Predictions
  50. 50. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Eight social marketing trends for 2016: 1. TV ad dollars will start to flow toward social. 2. Social properties will need to respond to ad blocking. 3. Influencer marketing will go mainstream. 4. The viewability debate will drag on. 5. Slow progress for cross-platform targeting. 6. Buy buttons will remain niche. 7. Live-streaming video will get real(-time). 8. Messaging apps will be marketing’s next frontier.
  51. 51. Facebook by the Numbers adroll.com, @AdRoll
  52. 52. This report summarizes our in- depth review of over 55,000 campaigns, which served over 37 billion impressions. (46 times more than last year) adroll.com, @AdRoll Facebook by the Numbers
  53. 53. YOY Increase in Facebook Spend by Industry adroll.com, @AdRoll
  54. 54. Adding Facebook to Retargeting Doubles Reach adroll.com, @AdRoll
  55. 55. B2B is Embracing Programmatic on Facebook - B2B used Retargeting on Facebook for content marketing and as a way to increase social engagement. - B2B CTRs increased by 140% and ASPA increased by 60% adroll.com, @AdRoll
  56. 56. Performance Lift by Adding Cross-Device Retargeting on Facebook adroll.com, @AdRoll
  57. 57. © 2015 eMarketer Inc. Learn more about digital marketing with an eMarketer corporate subscription Around 200 eMarketer reports are published each year. Here are some recent reports you may be interested in: Q&A Session Made possible by You will receive an email tomorrow with a link to view the deck and webinar recording. To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com Debra Aho Williamson Social Marketing Trends for 2016  US Social Trends for 2016: eMarketer Predictions for Video, Viewability, Buy Buttons, Messaging and More  Buy Buttons: Where Social Meets Mobile Commerce  Mobile Messaging Apps: Global User Forecast, Leaderboard and Outlook on Monetization  Social Advertising Effectiveness Scorecard: Industry Execs Grade the Leading Platforms

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