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eMarketer Webinar: Retail Ecommerce Forecast—Challenging Economy Drives Online Shopping


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Join eMarketer Principal Analyst Jeffrey Grau as he highlights eMarketer’s new US retail ecommerce forecast, predicting how this channel will develop over the next five years and discussing the implications for retailers.

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eMarketer Webinar: Retail Ecommerce Forecast—Challenging Economy Drives Online Shopping

  1. 1. J U N E 2 1, 2 0 1 2 Retail Ecommerce Forecast—Challenging Economy Drives Online Shopping Sponsored by:Jeffrey GrauPrincipal Analyst ©2011 eMarketer Inc.
  2. 2. Questions we will answer today  What is the outlook for online retail sales?  Which product categories have the most growth potential?  What mega-trends will drive ecommerce growth?  Who shops online? Q & ATwitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  3. 3. eMarketer forecasts double-digit growthrates for ecommerce sales through 2016 ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  4. 4. Ecommerce has steadily outperformedoverall retail sales growth ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  5. 5. Ecommerce’s share of total retail saleshas grown—and will continue to do so ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  6. 6. Consumers are shifting purchases from stores to the web Break Out by Income (2012) Annual Income Purchase more $100,000> 63% <$100,000 44% Source: Deloitte, as cited in Internet Retailer, April 6, 2012Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  7. 7. Let’s compare analysts’ forecasts Benchmarks US DoC comScore ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  8. 8. Is eMarketer bullish or are other analystsbeing too conservative? ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  9. 9. Analysts tend to underestimateecommerce growth rates “Chronically over the course of the 15 year history of ecommerce, the growth of the ecommerce market has been underestimated.” —Eric Best, CEO of Mercent, in an interview with eMarketer, February 14, 2012 ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  10. 10. How are online sales doing thus far in2012?Online sales were strong in Q1 2012 ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  11. 11. Keep in mind that the internet is muchmore than a sales channelIt strongly influences store sales Share by Segment, 2012 Category Share Online sale 7.2% Web-influenced offline sales 38.2% Web-influenced sales 45.4% Non web-influenced offline sales 54.6% Source: Forrester Research, as cited by Business Insider, June 12, 2012 ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  12. 12. Questions we will answer today  What is the outlook for online retail sales?  Which product categories have the most growth potential?  What mega-trends will drive ecommerce growth?  Who shops online? Q & ATwitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  13. 13. Ecommerce’s share of total retail sales isgrowingIn 2011, the internet accounted for6.6% of total retail sales ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  14. 14. Ecommerce’s share of total retail salesvaries greatly by category
  15. 15. Consumer packaged goods (CPG) is anonline sales category with high potential ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  16. 16. Electronics and apparel dominateecommerce—and will continue to do so ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  17. 17. Together they will account for 40% ofretail ecommerce sales in 2012 ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  18. 18. What are the fastest growing categories? 13.3%Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  19. 19. Questions we will answer today What is the outlook for online retail sales? Which product categories have the most growth potential? What mega-trends will drive ecommerce growth? Who shops online?Q & A ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  20. 20. 1. Portable devices power anytime,anywhere commerceSmartphones satisfy Tablets spur product immediate product discovery and needs impulse buying ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  21. 21. Smartphones promote showrooming bybringing the internet to the store ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  22. 22. Showrooming diverts sales from stores tothe web 6 in 10 ‘showroomers’ said they originally planned to purchase at the store but changed their mind while there and instead bought online Source: comScore, “State of the US Online Retail Economy in Q1 2012,” May 2012 ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  23. 23. Tablets help people discover products they did not know they wanted “Our general “With the iPad app, belief is that we focus on how we tablet sales are provide this discovery significantly experience.” additive.” Source: eMarketer interview, May 2012 Source: eMarketer Paul Cousineau interview, April 2012Yonatan FeldmanVP, Mobile & Global Engineering VP, Mobile ProductsGilt Groupe Wal-Mart Global Ecommerce “I would say that the tablet is creating more incremental traffic than it is taking it away or shifting.”Matt Jones Source: eMarketer interview, April 2012General Manager of MobileHome Depot ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  24. 24. Tablet commerce is having a noticeable impact on web sales “We do more than 20% of our revenue on mobile, and tablets make up about 10% of our revenue.” Source: eMarketer interview, May 2012 “Tablet commerceYonatan Feldman Julie Bornstein is certainlyVP, Mobile & Global Engineering SVP growing, but it’s stillGilt Groupe Sephora Direct small—in the low “We are definitely seeing continual double-digits.” growth of people using tablets—mobile Source: eMarketer is our fastest growing channel. We interview, May 2012 expect traffic on tablets to continue to increase.” Source: eMarketer interview, May 2012 Ed Deutscher Operating VP, Digital Commerce and Emerging Platforms HSN ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  25. 25. 2. Ecommerce is helping consumers make strong connections with products Personalized Curated recommendations selectionTwitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  26. 26. Personalization brings products of interestto the consumer’s attention Present 75% of the videos people watch on Netflix are the result of seeing one of its recommendations The Container Store’s conversion rates are about three times higher for customers who interact with recommendations than for a regular visit to the same page Future Shopycat, a social gift-finding Facebook app that came out of Walmart Labs, aims to convert consumer insights captured via social media into practical shopping tips eBay acquired recommendation engine Hunch’s prediction technology to surface more quality recommendations from eBay’s “long tail” of product listings. ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  27. 27. Curated sites harness the power of socialrecommendations 32% of online buyers have made a purchase as a result of seeing an image on a social image-sharing site like Pinterest or Polyvore ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  28. 28. Pinterest has become a powerful source of traffic during its short life “We just launched on Pinterest probably two “Pinterest is a growing months ago, and we are source of traffic for seeing a huge response.” Etsy.” Source: eMarketer interview, Source: AdAgeDigital, May 2012 December 2011Martine Reardon Adam BrownChief Marketing Officer Press ManagerMacy’s Inc. Etsy In the past month, 3.36% of Gemvara’s traffic came directly from Pinterest, outpacing Twitter, Google+ and every other social network save Facebook, which accounted for 7.38%.” Source: Internet Retailer, February 2012Brian KalmaChief Experience OfficerGemvara ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  29. 29. Questions we will answer today What is the outlook for online retail sales? Which product categories have the most growth potential? What mega-trends will drive ecommerce growth? Who shops online?Q & A ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  30. 30. Online shoppers and buyers definedTwitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  31. 31. Most people who want to buy online arealready doing so ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  32. 32. Internet users across all age groups arebuying online ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  33. 33. Older consumers will account for agreater share of online buyers ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  34. 34. Onlinebuying hasbecome amainstreamactivity,where age,race andincomematter less ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  35. 35. Lower-income shoppers now account fora quarter of online sales ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  36. 36. Millennials use new shopping channels ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  37. 37. Takeaways  Ecommerce’s share of total retail sales could easily approach 15% by 2020.  Key growth engines: o Low prices, convenience and broad selection online o Mobile and tablet commerce o Personalization and curated websites o CPG o Mainstreaming of online buyingTwitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  38. 38. Drive Conversions and Revenue Built for commerce: Conversions,transactions and revenueHighly personal, relevant emailand cross-channel marketing Sophisticated made simple Susan Wall | VP, Marketing
  39. 39. Abandoned CartsFrom Abandon to Conversion: Why ShoppersAbandon Carts and What Merchants Can DoAbout It• Top reasons shoppers abandon onlinepurchases• Analysis of post-abandonment emailstrategies• Recommendations for maximizingconversions
  40. 40. Triggered MessagesAutomate, Increase Engagement & DriveRevenue with Triggered Messages• Content and creative best practices• 7 Triggered message program examples• A guide to defining business rules
  41. 41. Cross-Channel MarketingTaking A ‘Crawl, Walk, Run’ Approach toCross-Channel Marketing• How retailers build long-lasting relationshipswith shoppers.• How SMS can get shoppers to completepurchases.
  42. 42. Tips & Tricks• Expertise from the field• White papers• Customer success stories• Blog posts
  43. 43. Q&A Session Learn more about digital advertising with an eMarketer corporate subscription Retail EcommerceForecast—Challenging Economy Drives Over 120 reports are published each year. Online Shopping Following are a few recent ones you may be interested in:  How Retailers Are Leveraging Big Data to Personalize Ecommerce  US Retail Ecommerce Forecast: Entering the Age Jeffrey Grau of Omnichannel Retailing You will receive an email  Curated Ecommerce: How Less Can Be More for tomorrow with a link to Shoppers view the deck and webinar recording.  Globalizing Ecommerce: What Retailers Need to Know About Entering Foreign Markets Sponsored by: Bronto To learn more: 800-405-0844 or ©2012 eMarketer Inc.