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Moray Rumney's Presentation at Emerging Communication Conference & Awards 2010 America


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Moray Rumney's Presentation at Emerging Communication Conference & Awards 2010 America

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  2. 2. Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband<br />Moray RumneyAgilent Technologies<br />© Copyright 2009 Agilent Technologies, Inc. <br />
  3. 3. What we would like in Mobile Broadband…<br />Simplicity and economies of scale:<br /><ul><li>One worldwide wireless standard for everything
  4. 4. One air interface
  5. 5. One frequency band
  6. 6. One core network
  7. 7. One application development framework
  8. 8. And no IPR (that we don’t own…)</li></ul>For 2G, GSM substantially achieved this in 1992<br />For 3G, UMTS faltered in 1999 but 3.5G is picking up by 2008<br />For 4G, what is the outlook?<br />Page 3<br />
  9. 9. Key lessons learned from 20 years of cellular<br />What we learned from GSM (2G)<br /> Scale matters  4 billion devices worldwide<br /> Ubiquitous low-rate services work and are hugely profitable (voice/SMS) <br />What we learned from UMTS (3G)<br /> A fat circuit-switched data pipe doesn’t cut it<br /> Coverage matters<br />What we learned from HSPA (3.5G)<br /> Packet-switched data is essential for mobile broadband<br /> When the megabits finally start flowing, data density matters<br /> Macro networks can only do so much – we need small cells for capacityPricing data at 1% of voice is not sustainable<br />What we learned from the iPhone<br /> Usability and apps are vastly more critical to innovation than air interfaces<br /> Wi-Fi is an effective way to offload low-grade traffic from cellular<br />Page 4<br />
  10. 10. What can wireless learn from Transportation?Trains, Planes and Automobiles: The film<br />The film is the story of the trials and tribulations of an American executive (Steve Martin) trying to get home for Thanksgiving<br />At every turn his preferred method of transport is thwarted - He does get home – eventually!<br />We understand his plight because most of us can relate stories of our own<br />We also understand his plight because we have a deep understanding of the range of transportation available to us<br />Trains, plans and automobiles<br />Moray Rumney<br />Page 5<br />February 17th 2010<br />
  11. 11. Transportation – a mature industry<br />Transportation has taken thousands of years to evolve<br />This has allowed us time to get used to four key elements<br />Performance What to expect – capacity, speed etc.<br />Value What different options are worth to us<br />Price What we pay for different options<br />Cost What it costs to provide a particular service<br />New transportation options do come along – like Virgin Galactica Space Tourism – but in general, transportation is very stable<br />Page 6<br />
  12. 12. Properties of a mature and sustainable industry<br />For an industry to be mature requires the following:<br />We must understand the performance – i.e. what to expect<br />From this we can assess the value to us individually<br />We then can choose from the options and pay the price <br />If the industry is to be sustainable then<br />The value must exceed the price paid<br />The price paid must exceed the cost of delivery<br />Page 7<br />
  13. 13. Mobile Broadband – a very new industry<br />True mobile broadband has only very recently come upon us<br />The rise of HSDPA, 1x-EV-DO and public Wi-Fi<br />But is this industry mature and sustainable?<br />What about its stability?<br />Page 8<br />
  14. 14. Page 9<br />We want planned order<br />
  15. 15. Page 10<br />…and the space (spectrum!) to deploy it<br />Note use of spatial diversity!<br />Denver<br />
  16. 16. Page 11<br />1G<br />3G<br />5G<br />2G<br />4G<br />But what we have looks more like Heathrow!<br />
  17. 17. 2G<br />IS-136TDMA<br />IS-95Acdma<br />PDC<br />GSM<br />2.5G<br />3G<br />IS-95Bcdma<br />Increasing efficiency, bandwidth and data rates<br />HSCSD<br />iMode<br />GPRS<br />E-GPRSEDGE<br />IS-95Ccdma2000<br />W-CDMAFDD<br />W-CDMATDD<br />TD-SCDMALCR-TDD<br />3.5G<br />1xEV-DORelease B<br />HSUPAFDD & TDD<br />1xEV-DORelease A<br />1xEV-DORelease 0<br />HSDPAFDD & TDD<br />3.9G<br />802.16dFixed WiMAXTM<br />WiBRO<br />802.16eMobileWiMAXTM<br />LTE-Advanced Rel-10<br />LTERel-8<br />Edge Evolution<br />4G<br />802.11g<br />802.11a<br />802.11b<br />802.11n<br />802.11h<br />UMB<br />HSPA+<br />802.16m<br />Cellular wireless: Almost nothing is obsolete in 20 years<br />Trends in wireless evolution<br />Moray Rumney<br />Page 12<br />April 16th 2010<br />
  18. 18. Consequence: 4G Mobile device design circa 2010<br />VoIP<br />LTE<br />Multi-band (29)<br />HSPA+<br />TD-SCDMA<br />High batteryefficiency<br />High spectralefficiency<br />LTE-Advanced<br />MIMO<br />1xEV-DO(B)<br />Low cost<br />Interferencecancellation<br />802.16m<br />Operator’s Radio equirements<br /> Wants:<br /> Everything<br /> When:<br /> Now!<br />Greenwireless<br />Bluetooth<br />Multi-Carrier<br />TD-LTE<br />EDGE-Evolution<br />802.16e<br />Dongle or phone<br />Wi-FI<br />A-GPS<br />MBMS<br />Multi-RAT<br />Trends in wireless evolution<br />Moray Rumney<br />Page 13<br />April 16th 2010<br />
  19. 19. Performance - Which is the best car?<br />$2,500<br />$1,500,000<br />Answer: Both! It depends on the problem you are trying to solve<br />Trends in wireless evolution<br />Moray Rumney<br />Page 14<br />Page 14<br />April 16th 2010<br />
  20. 20. Performance varies across the cell based on SINR<br />Page 15<br />Peak performance(ideal / single user)<br />Average performance(per user:10 users/cell)<br />Cell edge performance(per user: 10 users/cell)<br />Throughput<br />With each wireless evolution, the ratio between cell edge and peak performance has increased<br />Cell edge /poor conditions<br />Cell edge /poor conditions<br />Cell centre /good conditions<br />Position in cell /radio conditions<br />
  21. 21. So which really matters in mobile broadband?<br />Reality<br />Entertainment!<br />Page 16<br />
  22. 22. Performance per user by format <br />Page 17<br />* Ratio can be reduced at the expense of cell capacity by using proportional scheduling<br />A high peak to average performance ratio is bad for user experience<br />
  23. 23. Is Mobile Broadband sustainable today?<br />With many of today’s data pricing plans, the cost of delivery exceeds the price which exceeds the value – this is not a sustainable situation<br />Trains, plans and automobiles<br />Moray Rumney<br />Page 18<br />February 17th 2010<br />
  24. 24. Wireless capacity growth<br />10000<br />2000<br />1000<br />Growth factor<br />100<br />25<br />20<br />10<br />Efficiency<br />Spectrum<br />No. of cells<br />1<br />In the last 50 years wireless capacity has increased by around 1,000,000<br />This growth has come from better efficiency, more spectrum and more cells in roughly this ratio:<br />Growth has historically been dominated by the increase in the number of cells<br />Trends in wireless evolution<br />Moray Rumney<br />Page 19<br />April 16th 2010<br />
  25. 25. Capacity growth potential for the next decade<br />100<br />100<br />Small cell potential:<br />Moving from 1 base station / 1000 users to 1 base station / 10 users<br />Growth potential<br />10<br />3<br />2<br />Efficiency<br />Spectrum<br />No. of cells<br />1<br />Using current projections, the increase of cell numbers (small cell spectrum reuse) remains the dominant means of growing capacity<br />Trends in wireless evolution<br />Moray Rumney<br />Page 20<br />April 16th 2010<br />
  26. 26. Projecting ahead shows the gap between average and peak rates in a loaded cell will grow to 90x<br />Data rates x 100000<br /> Efficiency x 87<br /> Spectrum x 13<br /><ul><li>1100x capacity </li></ul>A 90x gap will exist by 2015<br />Efficiency, spectrum and capacity are normalized to single-band GSM in 1992 83 users/cell occupying 25 MHz @ 9.6 kbps<br />The outlook is that average efficiency and spectrum will fall further behind peak rates<br />The average efficiency, spectrum and capacity plots are normalized<br />Page 21<br />
  27. 27. The macrocellular dilemma<br />To deliver true mobile broadband these three attributes are all required:<br />High data rates with the capacity and density to match<br />Ubiquitous coverage<br />Low or reasonable cost<br />For macrocellular networks, pick any two!<br />Conclusion: High efficiency macrocellular can’t deliver substantial growth in capacity. Some form of small cells is essential.<br />Page 22<br />
  28. 28. FCC decision on Net NeutralityWhat dos it mean for wireless?<br />“Broadband providers cannot discriminate against services or applications by slowing them down”<br />What if we assumed other services were unlimited?<br />Stubbed toe of the decade perhaps?But the operators are fighting back!<br />Page 23<br />Is that the DoD? I’d like dad’s newspaper delivered by helicopter please!No charge of course.<br />
  29. 29. Predicting winning technologyOften the “best” doesn’t win<br />Ethernet vs. Token ring<br />802.11b vs. HiperLAN<br />Windows 3.1 vs. Unix<br />Iridium vs. GSM<br />Esperanto vs. English<br />What about femtocells vs. Wi-Fi<br />“Perfection is the enemy of the good”Gustave FlaubertFrench Novelist 1821 - 1880<br />Page 24<br />
  30. 30. The small cell challengeFemtocells Vs. Wi-Fi<br />The capacity density opportunity offered by small cells is clear<br />But which technology will win?<br />There are many parameters to this debate but effective control of interference is critical for unplanned high density deployment<br />Page 25<br />
  31. 31. What happens when any two femtocells are co-sited on the same frequency?<br />Page 26<br />Significant challenges, especially for closed subscriber group<br />Trends in wireless evolution<br />Moray Rumney<br />April 16th 2010<br />
  32. 32. 53 APs visible from one San Francisco restaurant. Can you spot it?<br />Page 27<br />Not ideal but it still functions due to 802.11 cognitive design<br />Trends in wireless evolution<br />Moray Rumney<br />April 16th 2010<br />
  33. 33. Page 28<br />Scale also matters:WiFi chips will out-ship cellular phones by 2012 <br />
  34. 34. What will it take for 3.9G/4G technology to displace existing cellular and deliver a unified vision?<br />Sufficient clean spectrum in which to gain a foothold (e.g. European 800 MHz band, 2.6 GHz band)<br />Network optimization to milk opportunities and overcome challenges with OFDM<br />Demonstrated performance to drive obsolescence of legacy and evolving older technologies leading to refarming<br />Solution to Voice support caused by the packet-only network<br />Proof that IMS is a viable solution for mobile systems<br />Economies of scale to drive down prices to below legacy systems<br />But leave high capacity density to small cells<br />Page 29<br />
  35. 35. Summary<br />Page 30<br /><br />Cellular Smileometer TM<br />Macrocellular can provide ubiquitous medium performance mobile broadband<br />Everything else needs to be offloaded to small cells with Wi-Fi well in the lead<br />The mature cellular market will migrate to low cost & complexity technology<br /><br />High cost & complexity<br />Multi-format<br />Multi-band<br />Multi-antenna<br />Fragmentation<br />Low QoS<br />Short battery life<br />High peak to average performance<br />High efficiency<br />Low cost & complexity<br />Fewer formats<br />Fewer bands<br />Fewer antennas<br />Consolidation<br />High QoS<br />Long battery life<br />High average performance<br />Low peak to average performance<br />Medium/low efficiency<br />
  36. 36. Thank you for listening!<br />Page 31<br />