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10. - 12. April 2019 | Wien
2
About us
Jenny Thompson
Attribution Product Lead - EMEA
Google
JennyThompson@google.com+44-7384-211-394
Martin Frotzler
Head of Consulting
e-dialog
frotzler@e-dialog.at+43-1-309 09 09-26
Attribution:
Building a model
Donnerstag, 11.4.2019
● In Practice
○ Building a model
○ Model evaluation
○ Key Takeaways
Agenda
4
● The Theory
○ The value of Attribution for your business
○ What is it? What is it NOT?
○ Attribution options at Google
Part 1: Why Attribution?
5
6
Investment in advanced attribution = big performance gains
Nascent
Efficiency
Effectiveness
Multi-moment
Emerging
Connected
+20%
revenue
−30% cost
Source: BCG Digital Marketing Maturity Study, 2018
Why is Attribution Important?
8
Consumers
don’t follow
linear paths
Loyalty
Programme
Mobile
Search
RadioIn-Store
TV
Print
Mail
Phone
YouTube
Store
Sales
Social
Mobile App
Word and Mouth
Site
Sales
Store
In a perfect world advertisers would know...
9
When and where do
consumers interact with
my brand?
What role does marketing play
v other factors
in driving my
business results?
How do consumers feel
about my brand?
What marketing should
I do next
(and what will the results be)?
Measuring sales impact should several approaches
10
Econometrics/MMM
A regression model estimates the
effect of all advertising on weekly
sales, alongside all other factors.
Digital Attribution
Credit is assigned to digital media
touchpoints based on their
involvement in conversions
Controlled Experiments
Stores or regions are matched to differ only by
their media exposure. Uplift is inferred to have
been caused by media.
The
Measurement
Cycle
What questions is digital attribution is uniquely placed to
answer?
11
Assess the relative impact your digital
media investment has in driving online
conversion and identify areas to
improve efficiency.
Understand the performance of the
generic search channel & test
optimisations at the adgroup/keyword
level accordingly.
Understand which of your display
strategies and creative messages are
contributing most to online response.
Better understand the cross device
impact your digital media investment
is having at a granular level.
Understand & test optimal frequency
cap for your retargeting campaigns &
eliminate waste.
Attribution options at Google
High
Low
Low HighComprehensiveness
Actionability
+ Google search ad data
+ Cross-search engine ad data
+ Cross-exchange display and video ad data
+ All paid media
+ Organic search and other media
+ Website data
Attribution Options at Google
Challenges like...
❏ Online and Offline Conversion Tracking
❏ De-duplication of Conversions
❏ X-Device Conversion Tracking
❏ Predictive Bidding (Bidding for projected LTV cohort)
❏ Cross Channel Budget Allocation
❏ Measuring Incrementality
❏ Data Driven Fractional Conversion Credit
Even if we still don’t have a single platform to solve every attribution solutions.
We can still solve many of the attribution challenges we face today with existing Google tech.
Google Ads, Analytics 360, Campaign Manager,
Search Ads 360, Display & Video 360, BigQuery, Data
Studio and more...
Products with attribution solutions*
Attribution Options at Google
14
ActionabilityComprehensiveness
Cross Channel Measurement & Budget Allocation
Set budgets and targets
Intra Channel
Optimization
Intra Channel
Optimization
Intra Channel
Optimization
Search Display Video
Platform Decision Owner
One source of truth for overall channel performance
CMO / Central
Marketing Team
Channel Team /
Media Partner
Cross Channel Measurement & Budget Allocation
Set budgets and targets
Organic
(and other channels)
-
Part 2: Building a model
15
Milestones
16
Basic Model
Choice
1
Basic Parameter
Choice
2
Advanced
Parameters
3 5
Key Takeaways
4
Example Case
Seite 17
Attribution is connected to...
Tools
Execution
Concept
Strategy
Audience
Marketing
Strategy
Data
Management
Marketing Mix
Business Culture
Reporting
Road to Digital Attribution
18Clean Data
Channel Definition
Evaluation ->
Model
Analyse
Action
● Campaign Tracking
● Taxonomy
● Conversion Tracking
● Which Channels?
● Which Sub-Channels?
● Model according to business
needs
● Parameter tuning
● How does each Channel
perform with the chosen
model?
● Reporting
● Strategic decisions based on
attributed data (e.g. budget
shifts)
This session ;)
Basic Model Choice
Which models make sense?
19
Seite 20
Typical touchpoints along the journey
SEE
(Upper Funnel)
THINK
(Mid Funnel)
DO
(Lower Funnel)
Assist
Conversions
Assist
Ratios
Display & Video:
oberer Trichter
Display & Video:
Mittlerer Trichter
Bezahlte Suche:
Generisch
Email
Verweis
Display & Video:
Unterer Trichter
Bezahlte
Markensuche
Organische Suche
Direkt
15,0 9,0 5,0 3,1 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,3
First Touch Last Click
Point of departure: Your Business
21
Aggressive growth strategy
Starting more new conversion
paths
Converting more new customers
Driving brand awareness
Conservative growth strategy
Finishing more existing conversion
paths
Converting more existing customers
Driving Brand capitalization
First Touch Position Based Linear Time Decay Last Click
Datadriven Attribution
● Concept: Based on actual path data
○ dynamic (e.g. weekly model update)
○ can include non-converting paths as well
○ less gut feeling involved
● Models, e.g.
○ Gametheory: Shapley Value (Google)
○ Markov Chains
○ Rubin causal model
○ …
● DDA in GA360 or Campaign Manager
○ limited to last 4 touchpoints
○ 400 Conversions / 10k Users
22
DDA@Google: Path Length
● How many paths (in %) are affected by the
limit of 4 last touchpoints in datadriven
attribution in GA and Campaign Manager?
● In Google Analytics
○ Conversions > Multi Channel Funnels > Top
Conversion Paths
● In Campaign Manager
○ Reporting & Attribution > Attribution > Top
Conversion Paths
23
Point of departure: Your Business
24
Aggressive growth strategy
Starting more new conversion
paths
Converting more new customers
Driving brand awareness
Conservative growth strategy
Finishing more existing conversion
paths
Converting more existing customers
Driving Brand capitalization
First Touch Position Based Linear Time Decay Last Click
Datadriven
Attribution
(GA360 / CM)
Step 1) Narrow down the models
● Based on Business Goals only certain models will make sense
● What are those models?
● What other factors could be business critical (soft goals, engagement metrics
to consider, …)?
25
Example: Start Up
● Strategy:
○ Aggressive growth
○ Drive brand awareness
○ Start new conversion paths (or any in this case…)
● Models, e.g.
○ First Touch (extreme, but useful here!)
○ Position Based with more weight on first touch (80/20/10, 70/10/20, …)
● Model lifespan?
○ With success comes a bigger customer base
○ Model reevaluation after a year, e.g. first touch -> position based
26
Basic Parameter Choice
What Lookback Window makes sense?
How should we value Views vs. Clicks?
27
Step 2) Define a useful lookback window (1)
28
● How many days should be considered before a conversion?
● How long is the customer journey?
SocialDisplay Paid Search Paid Search
$
30 days
Conversion path
Step 2) Define a useful lookback window (2)
● Points of reference
○ Time Lag Report (GA / Campaign
Manager)
○ Compare # of Conversions for different
Lookback Windows
○ Refer to your internal knowledge (most
probably you already have a good sense
of how long your customer journey is)
29
Campaigns & Lookback
30
Last day of your
campaign
Interaction with
the ad (click or
view)
Lookback Window: 30 days
Attributed
Conversion, 11
days after
interaction
Attributed
Conversion, 28
days after
interaction
Outside of attribution window
Unattributed
Conversion, 39
days after
interaction
Reporting Period: Campaign Duration + Lookback
Step 2) Define a useful lookback window (3)
● Theory vs Practice
Theory:
“My Customer Journey is about 60 days long and my reports show that there are still
conversions coming in after 60 days. Let’s define the Lookback with 60 days!”
Practice:
“I want to learn from campaign to campaign! Give me all the insights right after the campaign
ends!”
● Campaign END -> 60 days Lookback -> Complete Conversion Data
31
Step 2) Define a useful lookback window (4)
● Practice > Theory
○ Data suggests 60 days lookback window
○ Practice: You need to wait 60 days (!) after a campaign finishes before you get all the data to
generate insights about performance
● Choose a (shorter) lookback window that fits your reporting needs, e.g. 30 or 45 instead
of 60 days
● Consider a really long lookback (60+ days) only for periodical reviews (½ year, full year)
● Take campaign frequency as well as your need to learn from campaign to campaign
into account
32
Step 3) Parameter Tuning: View Weight
● View attribution is essential to attribute Awareness Channels (Display, Video,
Dynamic Creatives …)
● Views should always be attributed differently than Clicks / Sessions!
● View attribution can be defined in GA360 and Campaign Manager!
● View attribution is more subjective than click attribution
33
View Weight
34
View to Click/Session Lookback
35
Advanced Parameters
Custom Model Tuning
36
Custom rules examples
37
Things to consider...
● Which user interaction is of value?
● Which user interaction is of no value?
● Point of reference is always the user. Usually you should not manually
downgrade specific channels.
38
...but don’t overdo it
● Especially when you establish a model for the first time: keep it simple.
○ Avoid creating a blackbox that nobody can understand
○ Aim for a broad understanding within your organisation: it can be more important than
the perfect model
● You can always add complexity later
39
Model Evaluation: Example Case
40
History
● Business: Retail, established brand
● Strategic switch from conservative to aggressive growth strategy
● Tools: Google Marketing Platform
○ Google Analytics 360 (<- Attribution)
○ Search Ads 360
○ Display & Video 360
○ Campaign Manager
○ Datastudio
● Datadriven Model (GA360) -> new model?
41
Basic Model Choice
● Datadriven Model (GA360)
● Position Based 60 20 20
● Position Based 70 20 10
● Position Based 70 10 20
● Position Based 80 10 10
42
Lookback
● About 1/3 of paths longer than 30 days
● Choice: 30 days
○ High Campaign frequency
○ Insights driven campaign planning and execution
○ Seasonal effects (e.g. avoid of mix of xmas & spring campaign)
43
Model Evaluation | Search
44
GENERIC
(Upper Funnel)
SHOPPING
(Mid Funnel)
BRAND
(Lower Funnel)
● Position Based Model variants perform
quite similar
● Upper Funnel actions are valued higher
than with DDA / Lower Funnel actions
are valued lower than with DDA
View to Session Lookback
● Display Strategy: high quality visuals,
not discount driven
● View Setting Decision
○ View 100% when 2 days before a session
○ Else 0%
45
Final Model in Google Analytics 360
● Position Based 70/10/20
● 30 days lookback
● View 100% if 2 days before a session, else 0%
46
Key Takeaways
47
Key takeaways
● Don’t let complexity overwhelm you: Better start simple than not at all
● Always consider practical application: What may be good in theory may be
bad in practice (e.g. looong lookback)
● Consider attribution as a journey
● Consider a coach to help you on the way (e.g. e-dialog ;)
48
360 EXPERT LOUNGE
Wir nehmen uns Zeit für Eure individuellen Fragen zur
Google Marketing Platform und zu Digital Marketing
Kommt einfach vorbei!
(ihr findet uns in der Lounge neben dem großen Saal)
Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit!

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Google Analytics Konferenz 2019_Attribution: building a model_Martin Frotzler (e-dialog) & Jenny Thompson (Google)

  • 1. 10. - 12. April 2019 | Wien
  • 2. 2 About us Jenny Thompson Attribution Product Lead - EMEA Google JennyThompson@google.com+44-7384-211-394 Martin Frotzler Head of Consulting e-dialog frotzler@e-dialog.at+43-1-309 09 09-26
  • 4. ● In Practice ○ Building a model ○ Model evaluation ○ Key Takeaways Agenda 4 ● The Theory ○ The value of Attribution for your business ○ What is it? What is it NOT? ○ Attribution options at Google
  • 5. Part 1: Why Attribution? 5
  • 6. 6
  • 7. Investment in advanced attribution = big performance gains Nascent Efficiency Effectiveness Multi-moment Emerging Connected +20% revenue −30% cost Source: BCG Digital Marketing Maturity Study, 2018
  • 8. Why is Attribution Important? 8 Consumers don’t follow linear paths Loyalty Programme Mobile Search RadioIn-Store TV Print Mail Phone YouTube Store Sales Social Mobile App Word and Mouth Site Sales Store
  • 9. In a perfect world advertisers would know... 9 When and where do consumers interact with my brand? What role does marketing play v other factors in driving my business results? How do consumers feel about my brand? What marketing should I do next (and what will the results be)?
  • 10. Measuring sales impact should several approaches 10 Econometrics/MMM A regression model estimates the effect of all advertising on weekly sales, alongside all other factors. Digital Attribution Credit is assigned to digital media touchpoints based on their involvement in conversions Controlled Experiments Stores or regions are matched to differ only by their media exposure. Uplift is inferred to have been caused by media. The Measurement Cycle
  • 11. What questions is digital attribution is uniquely placed to answer? 11 Assess the relative impact your digital media investment has in driving online conversion and identify areas to improve efficiency. Understand the performance of the generic search channel & test optimisations at the adgroup/keyword level accordingly. Understand which of your display strategies and creative messages are contributing most to online response. Better understand the cross device impact your digital media investment is having at a granular level. Understand & test optimal frequency cap for your retargeting campaigns & eliminate waste.
  • 12. Attribution options at Google High Low Low HighComprehensiveness Actionability + Google search ad data + Cross-search engine ad data + Cross-exchange display and video ad data + All paid media + Organic search and other media + Website data
  • 13. Attribution Options at Google Challenges like... ❏ Online and Offline Conversion Tracking ❏ De-duplication of Conversions ❏ X-Device Conversion Tracking ❏ Predictive Bidding (Bidding for projected LTV cohort) ❏ Cross Channel Budget Allocation ❏ Measuring Incrementality ❏ Data Driven Fractional Conversion Credit Even if we still don’t have a single platform to solve every attribution solutions. We can still solve many of the attribution challenges we face today with existing Google tech. Google Ads, Analytics 360, Campaign Manager, Search Ads 360, Display & Video 360, BigQuery, Data Studio and more... Products with attribution solutions*
  • 14. Attribution Options at Google 14 ActionabilityComprehensiveness Cross Channel Measurement & Budget Allocation Set budgets and targets Intra Channel Optimization Intra Channel Optimization Intra Channel Optimization Search Display Video Platform Decision Owner One source of truth for overall channel performance CMO / Central Marketing Team Channel Team / Media Partner Cross Channel Measurement & Budget Allocation Set budgets and targets Organic (and other channels) -
  • 15. Part 2: Building a model 15
  • 17. Seite 17 Attribution is connected to... Tools Execution Concept Strategy Audience Marketing Strategy Data Management Marketing Mix Business Culture Reporting
  • 18. Road to Digital Attribution 18Clean Data Channel Definition Evaluation -> Model Analyse Action ● Campaign Tracking ● Taxonomy ● Conversion Tracking ● Which Channels? ● Which Sub-Channels? ● Model according to business needs ● Parameter tuning ● How does each Channel perform with the chosen model? ● Reporting ● Strategic decisions based on attributed data (e.g. budget shifts) This session ;)
  • 19. Basic Model Choice Which models make sense? 19
  • 20. Seite 20 Typical touchpoints along the journey SEE (Upper Funnel) THINK (Mid Funnel) DO (Lower Funnel) Assist Conversions Assist Ratios Display & Video: oberer Trichter Display & Video: Mittlerer Trichter Bezahlte Suche: Generisch Email Verweis Display & Video: Unterer Trichter Bezahlte Markensuche Organische Suche Direkt 15,0 9,0 5,0 3,1 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,3 First Touch Last Click
  • 21. Point of departure: Your Business 21 Aggressive growth strategy Starting more new conversion paths Converting more new customers Driving brand awareness Conservative growth strategy Finishing more existing conversion paths Converting more existing customers Driving Brand capitalization First Touch Position Based Linear Time Decay Last Click
  • 22. Datadriven Attribution ● Concept: Based on actual path data ○ dynamic (e.g. weekly model update) ○ can include non-converting paths as well ○ less gut feeling involved ● Models, e.g. ○ Gametheory: Shapley Value (Google) ○ Markov Chains ○ Rubin causal model ○ … ● DDA in GA360 or Campaign Manager ○ limited to last 4 touchpoints ○ 400 Conversions / 10k Users 22
  • 23. DDA@Google: Path Length ● How many paths (in %) are affected by the limit of 4 last touchpoints in datadriven attribution in GA and Campaign Manager? ● In Google Analytics ○ Conversions > Multi Channel Funnels > Top Conversion Paths ● In Campaign Manager ○ Reporting & Attribution > Attribution > Top Conversion Paths 23
  • 24. Point of departure: Your Business 24 Aggressive growth strategy Starting more new conversion paths Converting more new customers Driving brand awareness Conservative growth strategy Finishing more existing conversion paths Converting more existing customers Driving Brand capitalization First Touch Position Based Linear Time Decay Last Click Datadriven Attribution (GA360 / CM)
  • 25. Step 1) Narrow down the models ● Based on Business Goals only certain models will make sense ● What are those models? ● What other factors could be business critical (soft goals, engagement metrics to consider, …)? 25
  • 26. Example: Start Up ● Strategy: ○ Aggressive growth ○ Drive brand awareness ○ Start new conversion paths (or any in this case…) ● Models, e.g. ○ First Touch (extreme, but useful here!) ○ Position Based with more weight on first touch (80/20/10, 70/10/20, …) ● Model lifespan? ○ With success comes a bigger customer base ○ Model reevaluation after a year, e.g. first touch -> position based 26
  • 27. Basic Parameter Choice What Lookback Window makes sense? How should we value Views vs. Clicks? 27
  • 28. Step 2) Define a useful lookback window (1) 28 ● How many days should be considered before a conversion? ● How long is the customer journey? SocialDisplay Paid Search Paid Search $ 30 days Conversion path
  • 29. Step 2) Define a useful lookback window (2) ● Points of reference ○ Time Lag Report (GA / Campaign Manager) ○ Compare # of Conversions for different Lookback Windows ○ Refer to your internal knowledge (most probably you already have a good sense of how long your customer journey is) 29
  • 30. Campaigns & Lookback 30 Last day of your campaign Interaction with the ad (click or view) Lookback Window: 30 days Attributed Conversion, 11 days after interaction Attributed Conversion, 28 days after interaction Outside of attribution window Unattributed Conversion, 39 days after interaction Reporting Period: Campaign Duration + Lookback
  • 31. Step 2) Define a useful lookback window (3) ● Theory vs Practice Theory: “My Customer Journey is about 60 days long and my reports show that there are still conversions coming in after 60 days. Let’s define the Lookback with 60 days!” Practice: “I want to learn from campaign to campaign! Give me all the insights right after the campaign ends!” ● Campaign END -> 60 days Lookback -> Complete Conversion Data 31
  • 32. Step 2) Define a useful lookback window (4) ● Practice > Theory ○ Data suggests 60 days lookback window ○ Practice: You need to wait 60 days (!) after a campaign finishes before you get all the data to generate insights about performance ● Choose a (shorter) lookback window that fits your reporting needs, e.g. 30 or 45 instead of 60 days ● Consider a really long lookback (60+ days) only for periodical reviews (½ year, full year) ● Take campaign frequency as well as your need to learn from campaign to campaign into account 32
  • 33. Step 3) Parameter Tuning: View Weight ● View attribution is essential to attribute Awareness Channels (Display, Video, Dynamic Creatives …) ● Views should always be attributed differently than Clicks / Sessions! ● View attribution can be defined in GA360 and Campaign Manager! ● View attribution is more subjective than click attribution 33
  • 35. View to Click/Session Lookback 35
  • 38. Things to consider... ● Which user interaction is of value? ● Which user interaction is of no value? ● Point of reference is always the user. Usually you should not manually downgrade specific channels. 38
  • 39. ...but don’t overdo it ● Especially when you establish a model for the first time: keep it simple. ○ Avoid creating a blackbox that nobody can understand ○ Aim for a broad understanding within your organisation: it can be more important than the perfect model ● You can always add complexity later 39
  • 41. History ● Business: Retail, established brand ● Strategic switch from conservative to aggressive growth strategy ● Tools: Google Marketing Platform ○ Google Analytics 360 (<- Attribution) ○ Search Ads 360 ○ Display & Video 360 ○ Campaign Manager ○ Datastudio ● Datadriven Model (GA360) -> new model? 41
  • 42. Basic Model Choice ● Datadriven Model (GA360) ● Position Based 60 20 20 ● Position Based 70 20 10 ● Position Based 70 10 20 ● Position Based 80 10 10 42
  • 43. Lookback ● About 1/3 of paths longer than 30 days ● Choice: 30 days ○ High Campaign frequency ○ Insights driven campaign planning and execution ○ Seasonal effects (e.g. avoid of mix of xmas & spring campaign) 43
  • 44. Model Evaluation | Search 44 GENERIC (Upper Funnel) SHOPPING (Mid Funnel) BRAND (Lower Funnel) ● Position Based Model variants perform quite similar ● Upper Funnel actions are valued higher than with DDA / Lower Funnel actions are valued lower than with DDA
  • 45. View to Session Lookback ● Display Strategy: high quality visuals, not discount driven ● View Setting Decision ○ View 100% when 2 days before a session ○ Else 0% 45
  • 46. Final Model in Google Analytics 360 ● Position Based 70/10/20 ● 30 days lookback ● View 100% if 2 days before a session, else 0% 46
  • 48. Key takeaways ● Don’t let complexity overwhelm you: Better start simple than not at all ● Always consider practical application: What may be good in theory may be bad in practice (e.g. looong lookback) ● Consider attribution as a journey ● Consider a coach to help you on the way (e.g. e-dialog ;) 48
  • 49. 360 EXPERT LOUNGE Wir nehmen uns Zeit für Eure individuellen Fragen zur Google Marketing Platform und zu Digital Marketing Kommt einfach vorbei! (ihr findet uns in der Lounge neben dem großen Saal)
  • 50. Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit!