Brazil: The    3 Make or     2012 and                                    Basics      Break Issues    Beyond               ...
Exporting Ohio to Latin America: A  Brazilian Case StudyBrazil: The Basics    -Facts                                      ...
10 Seconds or LESS   My name is . . .   I’m with . . .   And:     One experience I had related to Brazil is . . .    ...
Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and  Basics        Break      Beyond                Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                                     P E S T                What are the Political, Econ...
Brazil: The Basics                                                         P E S T                                        ...
Brazil: The Basics                                                                    P E S T                             ...
Brazil: The Basics                                                                                P E S T                 ...
Brazil: The Basics                                                                  P E S T                               ...
Brazil: The Basics                                                         P E S T                                        ...
Brazil: The Basics                                                                                                       P...
Brazil: The Basics                                                               P E S T   Currency       General       ...
Brazil: The Basics                                                                         P E S T   Currency Risk      ...
Brazil: The Basics                                                          P E S TSocial Risk                            ...
Brazil: The Basics                                 P E S T                        Geert Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions   ...
Brazil: The Basics                                                          P E S TSocial Risk                            ...
Brazil: The Basics                                                            P E S TSocial Risk                          ...
Brazil: The Basics                                                                                  P E S T   Technologic...
3 Issues that can Make or Break YourBrazilian Business Strategy    Entry Method & Organizational Structure                ...
Entry Method & OrganizationalStructure  Wholly     Owned Subsidiaries  Non-Equity     Alliance    Licensing  agreements...
Entry Method & OrganizationalStructure    Wholly owned subsidiary        Foreign capital in Brazil treated quite liberal...
Entry Method & OrganizationalStructure    Sociedade Limitada (LTDA)    Sociedade Anônima (SA)    Sociedade Simples    ...
Entry Method & OrganizationalStructure      Sociedade Limitada (LTDA)            Similar to US LLC                 Liab...
Entry Method & OrganizationalStructure    Distributorship & Agency Relationships        Brazilian agency relationships i...
Entry Method & OrganizationalStructure    Joint Venture        May be created with or without a joint company           ...
Entry Method & OrganizationalStructure   Should you vertically integrate?       Some or all of the value chain, acquire ...
Labor – It’s more than just the 13th  salaryLabor rights are outlined in the Brazilian Constitution, as well aslaws, decre...
Labor – It’s more than just the 13thsalary   Basic Principals       Worker Protection: the worker is considered the weak...
Labor – It’s more than just the 13thsalary   Direct agreements between employees and employers to resolve conflicts    ar...
Labor – It’s more than just the 13thsalary   Not at will       30 days prior notice (some agreements may require longer ...
Labor – It’s more than just the 13thsalary   Brazilian v. Non-Brazilian       Staff of companies with three or more empl...
Regulation & Tax  Import  Export Process  Minimum Wage  Privatization  Recent Tax & Regulation Changes            “If ...
Regulation & Tax    Import Export Process        Register with the governmental registration system              Secret...
Regulation & Tax             MERCOSUL                        southern common market                         Free from im...
Regulation & Tax    Recent Tax Changes        July, 2011              1% tax on foreign derivatives        August, 201...
Regulation & Tax   Minimum Wage     January    2012 increases 14%       Currently  R$ 545 per month x 13 (US$ 12,540)  ...
Regulation & Tax      Privatization          Infrastructure Need          Auction method          Airports            ...
2012 & Beyond   Infrastructure   Currency Rally & Inflation   Regulation                                 Brazil: The   ...
Infrastructure   Unlike the United States, Brazil is only beginning to develop its    infrastructure capabilities       ...
Infrastructure   Logistics       Rail           ALL                  Monopoly on rail concessions it operates         ...
Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends   Inflation       Analyst’s views very on inflation: 2012-2013 Range: low 3% to high 6...
Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends   GDP Projections: mid to high single digit growth in 2013     GDP Gap          Min w...
Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends   Currency     Largely       dependent on EU crisis       If no EU recession and deve...
Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends   Macro Trends     Min Wage       January  2012, 14% min wage increase – 54 million  ...
Regulation   A Bigger Brazil:          3 prong plan to continue to spur economic growth     US$   16 Billion in tax brea...
Brazil: The    3 Make or     2012 and                                    Basics      Break Issues    Beyond               ...
Additional Sources   UBS Investment Research: Emerging Economic Focus, UBS, August 29, 2011   A Closer Look at Brazil’s ...
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2011 Ohio Hispanic Business Summit - Exporting to Brazil - David M Wilson

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2011 Ohio Hispanic Business Summit - Exporting to Brazil - David M Wilson

  1. 1. Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Issues Beyond EXPORTING OHIO TO LATIN AMERICA: A BRAZILIAN CASE STUDYdwilsonjdmbadwilson@keglerbrown.com David M. Wilson, Kegler Brown
  2. 2. Exporting Ohio to Latin America: A Brazilian Case StudyBrazil: The Basics -Facts P E S T -Opportunities -Risks 3 Issues that could Make or Break your Brazilian Business Strategy -Organizational Structure -Labor -Regulation & Tax 2012 & Beyond -Infrastructure -Inflation & Currency -Regulation Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  3. 3. 10 Seconds or LESS My name is . . . I’m with . . . And:  One experience I had related to Brazil is . . .  One question I have related to Brazil is . . .  When I think of Brazil, I think of . . . business or non business related Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  4. 4. Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  5. 5. Brazil: The Basics P E S T What are the Political, Economic, Social and Technological reasons to enter Brazil? export, manufacture, distribute, design . . . Political  The ability of government to respond to and NOT create political risk Economic  Macro trends, Currency risks Social  The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply pressure to the company to change its behavior Technological  Infrastructure, IP Protection, Government Incentives Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  6. 6. Brazil: The Basics P E S T The unit of measurementPolitical Risk for political risk is -The ability of government to respond to political risk STABILITY -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk  Government Structure  Level of Corruption  Appropriation Concerns  Bureaucracy Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  7. 7. Brazil: The Basics P E S T The unit of measurementPolitical Risk for political risk is -The ability of government to respond to political risk STABILITY -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk  Government Stability  Stable Republic Since 1985  Multiple Peaceful Elections  Democratic Constitution  Functioning Executive, Legislative and Judicial Branches  Multiple Party System  Increasingly developed services: Fire, Police, EMS Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  8. 8. Brazil: The Basics P E S T The unit of measurementPolitical Risk for political risk is -The ability of government to respond to political risk STABILITY -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk  Level of Corruption  Transparency International 2010 CPI index  The abuse of entrusted power for private gain  Perception of corruption in public sector  2010 (most current  USA: 22 of 180  Apx. 88th percentile  Brazil: 69 of 180  Apx. 62nd percentile  1995 (year 1 of CPI) Denmark* USA Brazil China India Russia  USA: 15 of 41 1st 22nd 69th 78th 87th 154th  Apx. 63rd percentile  Brazil: 36 of 41  Apx .13th percentile  Rousseff Cleaning House  Jettisoned 5 cabinet members since June Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  9. 9. Brazil: The Basics P E S T The unit of measurementPolitical Risk for political risk is -The ability of government to respond to political risk STABILITY -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk  Appropriation concerns  Long history of privatization & recent commitments  Talk of reviving old laws for a few categories  land restrictions on % of land in a district that foreigners may buy  1971 law found unconstitutional but is being revisited (no talk of taking land) Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  10. 10. Brazil: The Basics P E S T The unit of measurementPolitical Risk for political risk is -The ability of government to respond to political risk STABILITY -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk  Bureaucracy? Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  11. 11. Brazil: The Basics P E S T Largest Latin American economy  7 largest in the World Developed financial markets Macro Trends Young workforce  Brazil 39.3%  United States 30.5%  China 29.4% Increasing domestic demand  Growing Middle Class  Over 35 million Brazilians entered the middle class from 2003 to 2009  estimates predict an additional 20 million will climb the ladder by 2014  Per Capita GDP larger than China or India  Brazil $10,816  China $4,382  India $1,371 Rich Commodities Base – Energy, Mining, Agribusiness  Vies with Australia as worlds largest exporter of iron ore  Fertile Land: 1/3rd global coffee, ½ of all global sugarcane exports, major world player in beef, poultry, soybeans and corn  Recent oil field discovery 15bn to 70-100bn barrels  NPV of this discovery is apx $500bn apx 20% of GDP  Rainforest, Hydro Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  12. 12. Brazil: The Basics P E S T Currency  General  Weak exchange rate generally makes a country’s exports cheaper  Central banks in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have recently intervened to make their currencies cheaper  China continues to suppress the value of its currency to strengthen exports  Brazilian Real  1.59 end of August, crossed 1.9 (intraday) September  Selling in September  Foreign investment attracted by high returns began to sell in September largely due to fear of Greek crisis  notably Japan  Central bank lowered benchmark rate by .5%  Many view the valuation as stabilizing after >45% increase since 2008 Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  13. 13. Brazil: The Basics P E S T Currency Risk  Transaction exposure – commitment to make payment at future date  Solutions:  Forward Contracts  Risk Sharing Agreements  Foreign Currency Options  Translation exposure – accounting based changes in consolidated FS  Taking the value on 1 day and reporting on your statements  Solutions:  Swap (assets, debts, and/or liabilities with someone else, e.g., a bank or another company)  Economic exposure – non zero changes in expected cash flows due to changes in currency (real not just nominal)  Solutions:  Diversification Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  14. 14. Brazil: The Basics P E S TSocial Risk How substantive is the stakeholder? -The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply How intense is the threat? pressure to the company to change its behavior  Stakeholders  Shareholders, NGOs, Interest Groups, Consumers, Local Communities. . .  Factors  Cultural Norms, Languages  “Culture eats strategy for breakfast” – Oded Shenkar  Demographics  GINI index (inequality of income)  Ethnic Conflict Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  15. 15. Brazil: The Basics P E S T  Geert Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions  Power Distance  Individualism  Masculinity  Uncertainty Avoidance  Long-Term Orientation  www.geert-hofstede.com Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  16. 16. Brazil: The Basics P E S TSocial Risk How substantive is the stakeholder? -The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply How intense is the threat? pressure to the company to change its behavior  Solutions  Decouple your brands / products  Charge premium on specific brands for CSR projects, not all consumers  Partner with NGOs  Reputational benefit, they understand the industry and may help keep you up to date with shifts in pressure  Admit Wrongs  People are more likely to believe your CSR reports when you tell them what you are doing wrong (and how you addressing it) Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  17. 17. Brazil: The Basics P E S TSocial Risk How substantive is the stakeholder? -The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply How intense is the threat? pressure to the company to change its behavior  Education  Past2000- ½ Brazilian students graduated grade school- 3 out of 4 adults were functionally illiterate  Present-Goal to reach OECD standard over next decade-75,000 scholarships to attend world’s topuniversities (only 9,000 a few months ago) Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  18. 18. Brazil: The Basics P E S T Technological  Infrastructure  Power  Public Health  IP Protection  Codified IP law protected by the Brazilian Constitution  Industrial Property Law, Law No. 9279, as amended (May 15, 1996)(Braz).  Provides for contracts involving technology transfer, technical and scientific services, franchising and protection against unfair competition  Instituto Nacional da Propriedade Industrial (INPI)  Federal agency in charge of regulating and registering patents, trademarks, industrial designs, approving licensing and other agreements  Copyright Law, Law No. 9610, as amended (Feb 20, 1998)(Braz).  Regulates Brazilian Copyrights and some Software Law  Rights are enforceable  Patent holder is entitled to prevent others from using, producing, selling, offering, or importing a patented product or process  Patent holder is entitled to be indemnified for improper use  Government Incentives Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  19. 19. 3 Issues that can Make or Break YourBrazilian Business Strategy Entry Method & Organizational Structure Labor Regulation & Tax Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  20. 20. Entry Method & OrganizationalStructure  Wholly Owned Subsidiaries  Non-Equity Alliance  Licensing agreements Stable Brazilian legal system leads to fairly predictable results – but you may not always like them  Supply agreements  Distribution agreements  Non-Equity joint venture  Heads of Agreement (Similar to US Memo of Understanding)  Equity Alliance  Joint venture Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  21. 21. Entry Method & OrganizationalStructure  Wholly owned subsidiary  Foreign capital in Brazil treated quite liberally  Current legislation does not distinguish between domestic & foreign owned companies  Investments may be freely made & are not subject to any prior approval, license or authorization from authorities  But must be registered with Central Bank’s online system  No max or min limit on investment amount  Levels if wish to employee non-Brazilians  No max or min term for the investment (repatriate anytime)  Amounts paid by a Brazilian company to a foreign investor are NOT subject to any withholding tax  Amounts over the initial registration are generally treated as capital gains and subject to 15% tax (25% if investor resides in a tax haven)  Foreign investors are free to use any of the available company forms Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  22. 22. Entry Method & OrganizationalStructure  Sociedade Limitada (LTDA)  Sociedade Anônima (SA)  Sociedade Simples  Sociedade em Nome Coletivo  Sociedade em Comandita Simples  Sociedade em Comandita por ações  Sociedade em Comum  Sociedade em conta de Participação  Associações  Fundações  Cooperativas  Consórcio Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  23. 23. Entry Method & OrganizationalStructure  Sociedade Limitada (LTDA)  Similar to US LLC  Liability limited to partner’s quotas  Quotas may be freely transferred according to the articles of association  May not be traded publicly  Simplicity & Flexibility  Reduced Maintenance Costs  Less Formal Requirements  Must have at least 2 partners  Brazilian partners are not required  May be managed by one or more persons, partners or other entity  Manager must reside in Brazil  If foreign manager, must possess a permanent Brazilian Visa with authorization to act as manager of a specific company  Generally preferred for wholly owned subsidiaries  Sociedade Anônima (SA)  Similar to US Corporation  May issue securities, debentures and may be publicly held  Higher Maintenance Costs  More formal requirements  Generally preferred for ventures comprised of a large number of different shareholder groups Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  24. 24. Entry Method & OrganizationalStructure  Distributorship & Agency Relationships  Brazilian agency relationships is governed by the Brazilian Civil Code and by special legislation, Law n. 4.886/1965  Exclusivity is NOT presumed unless expressly established in an agency agreement  However exclusivity is common and will likely be required by potential agents  Exclusivity entitles the agent to compensation related to direct sales made by the company without assistance of the agent  Termination  There are specific enumerated “just” reasons for the termination of an agency agreement  Termination is typically both difficult & costly  Generally, an agent is entitled to no less that 1/12th of the total amount received during the time of agency or an amount equal to the monthly average compensation received multiplied by the remaining months left in the agency contract term.  An agent is also generally entitled to reimbursement for investments, such as office rent and equipment expenses Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  25. 25. Entry Method & OrganizationalStructure  Joint Venture  May be created with or without a joint company  Contractual joint ventures between your LTDA/SA and a Brazilian company  Low cost entry and exit to new markets, industries and industry segments  Opportunity for learning  Provides a contractual framework for operations without generating the problems associated with an agency relationship  Enables each party to take full responsibility for its contribution to the venture while minimizing the issues associated with exclusivity  Enables low cost entry and exit  May later evolve into equity alliance Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  26. 26. Entry Method & OrganizationalStructure Should you vertically integrate?  Some or all of the value chain, acquire rather than joint venture Transaction Costs  Is the exchange subject to high threats of opportunism due to high transaction specific investments?  Is the exchange subject to high threats of opportunism due to uncertainty and complexity? Capabilities  Do you have valuable, rare and costly to imitate resources? Real Options  To retain flexibility: exchanges characterized by high levels of uncertainty should not be vertically integrated For additional information on this topic please reference: Gaining & Sustaining Competitive Advantage Third Edition, Jay B. Barney, 2007 Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  27. 27. Labor – It’s more than just the 13th salaryLabor rights are outlined in the Brazilian Constitution, as well aslaws, decrees, provisional measures, ordinances and regulations,international conventions and treaties (ratified by the Braziliangovernment), company policies, Supreme Court decisions, SuperiorLabor Court decisions and customs Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  28. 28. Labor – It’s more than just the 13thsalary Basic Principals  Worker Protection: the worker is considered the weaker party in the relationship  In labor-related conflicts, at any level or jurisdiction, whenever there is a doubt regarding evidence, the court’s decision will favor the worker  The law most favorable to the worker will be applied  The conditions most favorable to the worker will be presumed  Actual facts prevail over written documents  Protected salary (generally cannot lower an employee’s salary)  Defense of workers honor and ethical code  Nondiscriminatory practices  Continuity of employment relationship Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  29. 29. Labor – It’s more than just the 13thsalary Direct agreements between employees and employers to resolve conflicts are not valid  The Brazilian constitution provides the right to sue as an individual guarantee  There are ways to settle  Arbitration, union conciliation commissions. . .  but they do NOT prevent the right of individual claims Every 12 months employees are entitled to 30 calendar days paid vacation  In addition to the 13th salary (Christmas bonus equal to 1/12 the salary for each month of that year) Every month employer must deposit an amount = to 8% of employees salary into Unemployment Fund  If employee is dismissed without cause, the employee may withdraw the amount  Employer must pay a penalty equal to 40% of the amount and an additional 10% to the government Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  30. 30. Labor – It’s more than just the 13thsalary Not at will  30 days prior notice (some agreements may require longer period of time)  Notice shall specify whether the 30 days must be worked or not worked  If worked may be absent for 7 consecutive days or may leave 2 hours early every day  For cause if:  A dishonest act  Improper conduct  Regularly doing business on behalf of himself or for a third party  Criminal conviction  Inadequate discharge of duty  Habitual drunkenness  Currently debate on this cause; many courts consider it a social problem and not a just cause  Violation of trade secrets  Act of disobedience or insubordination  Abandonment of employment  Injurious act to the honor of any person during working hours (except in self defense)  Persistent gambling Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  31. 31. Labor – It’s more than just the 13thsalary Brazilian v. Non-Brazilian  Staff of companies with three or more employees must be 2/3 Brazilian  And, at least 2/3rds of the payroll must be paid to Brazilians  Salaries paid to employees in Brazil cannot be based on foreign currency Federal, State and Municipal Taxes  Contribution for Financing Social Security COFINS  7.6% calculated based on gross revenue from the sale of goods or services  Contribution to the Social Integration Plan PIS Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  32. 32. Regulation & Tax  Import Export Process  Minimum Wage  Privatization  Recent Tax & Regulation Changes “If you’re honest and want to comply with the tax code, you need an accountant and a tax lawyer for life” -The Economist, September 24, 2011 quoting a São Paulo based economist Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  33. 33. Regulation & Tax  Import Export Process  Register with the governmental registration system  Secretary of Foreign Trade SECEX, SISCOMEX system  Subject to significant variability  Obtain importing license if required  Automatic  Non-Automatic (process may take several months)  ANVISA, IBAMA, MAPA, DECEX, CNEN, ANP, ANEEL, DPF, COMEX, MCT . . .  Radar  Simplified  Ordinary  Tax / Duty  Generally all imports are subject to import duty, IPI, ICMS, PIS and COFINS  Import duty is calculated on the total CIF (cost, insurance & freight)  Are charged based on the tariff classification of the product  Import Tariffs rage from 0 – 35% with an average applied tariff rate of 11.5%  The import duty rate for machinery and equipment not produced local MAY be reduced to 2% upon request of the importer to the competent authorities Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  34. 34. Regulation & Tax  MERCOSUL southern common market  Free from import duty with certificate of origin  However Exceptions to Common External Tariff (CET)  Brazil is permitted 93 exceptions to the CET  June, 2009 the trade minister raised several import duty rates:  August, 2009 MERCOSUL members approved tariff increases on hundreds of products within the CET  Primarily dairy, textiles, bags, backpacks, suitcases up to the bound level apx 31.4% Member Countries Applied Associate Member Observer of AgreementBrazil Venezuela Bolivia MexicoArgentina ChileUruguay ColumbiaParaguay Not yet ratified by Ecuador Paraguay Peru Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  35. 35. Regulation & Tax  Recent Tax Changes  July, 2011  1% tax on foreign derivatives  August, 2011  Three prong plan to continue to spur economic growth  September, 2011  30% Increase in industrial product tax on cars (37-55%)  Exempt if 65% domestic parts (Brazil, Mexico or Mercosul country)  Oct 6, 2011 Renault SA announced plans to increase its Brazilian production capacity by 100,000 vehicles  Brazil will be the companies 2nd largest market after France  Expects sales of 3 million vehicles annually by 2013 with 25% from Brazil  October 10, 2011 Chinese auto maker JAC announced it would build a factory in Brazil – output set to begin in 2014 Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  36. 36. Regulation & Tax Minimum Wage  January 2012 increases 14%  Currently R$ 545 per month x 13 (US$ 12,540)  Likely to reach R$ 817 per month by 2015 (US$18,800)  54 million Brazilians at min wage level Increased domestic demand  Likely increases consumption Risks  Some industries may see significant increases in COGS Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  37. 37. Regulation & Tax  Privatization  Infrastructure Need  Auction method  Airports  São Gonçalo do Amarante Airport – R$ 170 million (3x reserve)  3 more by end of 2011  Oilfield RightsThe Brazilian President’s office emphasized, “[t]he government does not intend toget involved in these investments. These investments are going to be a long-term,private sector affair. The private sector must play a key role.” Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  38. 38. 2012 & Beyond Infrastructure Currency Rally & Inflation Regulation Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  39. 39. Infrastructure Unlike the United States, Brazil is only beginning to develop its infrastructure capabilities  Domestic Growth  2014 World Cup  2016 Olympics President Rousseff  Infrastructure background  Lula’s Program for Accelerated Growth Coordinator and is known for her technical analysis  History of funding with private capital Opportunities exist for  US companies with capabilities to assist in infrastructure development  US companies that already possess the ability to design, develop, manufacture or deliver goods Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  40. 40. Infrastructure Logistics  Rail  ALL  Monopoly on rail concessions it operates  Excess capacity (profitable lines at near full capacity  ANTT road & rail regulator  Recent concessions changes enables competitors to pay ALL an access fee  Road  Creating and paving many connecting routes  Air  Privatization  Operations, construction opportunities  Telecom  30% of households have broadband Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  41. 41. Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends Inflation  Analyst’s views very on inflation: 2012-2013 Range: low 3% to high 6%  Disagreements largely relate to labor productivity and fiscal accounts Factors  Significant FDI lured by high interest rates and growth Government Focus  Education  Increases in productivity  Increases in the pool of educated labor decreases wage pressure which reduces inflation concerns  Reduce Costs  Eliminated Payroll taxes for labor intensive industries like furniture and textiles in August Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  42. 42. Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends GDP Projections: mid to high single digit growth in 2013  GDP Gap  Min wage increase .6% + reduction in tax revenues from new industrial policies .4% = 1% GDP gap from expenditures & decrease of tax revenues  New Oil fields provide wealth to help fund infrastructure investment  Involvement of private sector capital in infrastructure development may reduce need for Government infrastructure expenditures (Increased privatization and licensing likely) Many analysts agree that the main risk for the Brazilian economy is not local, rather the  Impact of E.U. potential deterioration of the E.U.  Greek debt default and general credit drop of the EU which triggers a regional recession will likely also reduce growth in the US and China  This reduction in global demand will likely lead to decreased commodity prices  The impact of external noise would likely be smoothed by Brazilian fiscal and monetary counter cyclical policies; however, GDP growth would likely decrease to 2- 3% in 2013 Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  43. 43. Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends Currency  Largely dependent on EU crisis  If no EU recession and developed banks print more money this increased liquidity will likely keep rates low for several years. This will likely lead to increased Brazilian Real appreciation  Many analysts project as strong as BR$1.5 to US$1  Ifglobal distress then Brazilian Real could likely weaken to 1.7 or worse Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  44. 44. Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends Macro Trends  Min Wage  January 2012, 14% min wage increase – 54 million receive min wage  Should support consumption and prevent downside demand pressures  Even if EU recession, unlikely that Brazil will experience recession  Consumption is a high % of the Brazilian economy  May impact cost of labor and COGS in your industry Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  45. 45. Regulation A Bigger Brazil: 3 prong plan to continue to spur economic growth  US$ 16 Billion in tax breaks (over 2 years)  Eliminate payroll taxes for labor intensive industries  Software, Textiles, Shoes, Furniture  Buy Brazil Initiative  Allows government agencies to pay up to 25% more for locally produced products than similar foreign goods  Particularly when purchasing for defense, health, or high tech communications equipment  Subsidized Loan Programs Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  46. 46. Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Issues Beyond EXPORTING OHIO TO LATIN AMERICA: A BRAZILIAN CASE STUDYdwilsonjdmbadwilson@keglerbrown.com David M. Wilson, Kegler Brown
  47. 47. Additional Sources UBS Investment Research: Emerging Economic Focus, UBS, August 29, 2011 A Closer Look at Brazil’s Credit Boom, Deutsche Bank EM Special Publication, July 22, 2011 Anchoring, De-Anchoring, Re-Anchoring, Bradesco Corretora Economics BBI Equity Research, September 6, 2011 Economic Outlook: Brazil, BBVA, Third Quarter 2011 Brazil Auctions Rights to Airport, WSJ, August 23, 2011 The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power’s Struggle with Geography, STRATFOR, July 14, 2011 The Aging World, Ned Davis Research Inc, July 21, 2011 Japanese Dump Real Funds at Fastest Pace Since Earthquake: Brazil Credit, Bloomberg, September, 30, 2011 First they went for the currency, now for the land, The Economist, September 24, 2011 Gaining & Sustaining Competitive Advantage Third Edition, Jay B. Barney, 2007 Privatization and the Distribution of Assets and Income in Brazil, Economic Reform Project: Global Policy Program, July, 2000

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