Erie County Socioeconomic Profile

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Erie County Socioeconomic Profile

  1. 1. www.headwaterseconomics.org A SocioEconomic Profile Erie County, Pennsylvania Produced by the Economic Profile System (EPS) February 14, 2009
  2. 2. Erie County, Pennsylvania About EPS About The Economic Profile System (EPS) This profile was produced using the 2008 version of the Economic Profile System (EPS), last updated in February 2009. EPS is designed to allow users to produce detailed socioeconomic profiles automatically and efficiently at a variety of geographic scales using the spreadsheet program Microsoft Excel. Profiles contain tables and figures that illustrate long-term trends in population; employment and personal income by industry; average earnings; business development; retirement and other non-labor income; commuting patterns; agriculture; and earnings by industry. Databases used for EPS profiles are from: Bureau of the Census including County Business Patterns; Bureau of Labor Statistics; and the Regional Economic Information System (REIS) of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. EPS was developed in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management by Ray Rasker, Jeff van den Noort, Ben Alexander and Patty Gude. EPS and Acrobat files (.pdf) of completed profiles for the West are available for free download at www.headwaterseconomics.org. For technical questions about EPS, contact Jeff van den Noort at jeff@headwaterseconomics.org. www.headwaterseconomics.org Headwaters Economics is a high-tech nonprofit organization that offers a unique blend of research skills and on-the-ground experience based on over 20 years of work with communities, landowners, public land managers and elected officials. Our mission is to improve community development and land management decisions in the West. www.blm.gov The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), an agency within the U.S. Department of the Interior, administers 262 million surface acres of America's public lands, located primarily in 12 Western States. The BLM sustains the health, diversity, and productivity of the public lands for the use and enjoyment of present and future generations.
  3. 3. Erie County, Pennsylvania Table of Contents About the Economic Profile System Table of Contents Read This First Demographics, Employment and Income Demographics, Employment and Income 1 Population Trends 2 Population 3 Age and Gender 4 Income Distribution & Housing 5 Employment 6 Employment 7 Personal Income 8 Proprietors 9 Non-labor Income 10 Transfer Payments 11 Personal Income 12 Government Employment 13 Earnings Per Job 14 Per Capita Income 15 Firms by Industry 16 Firms by Industry in 2001 (NAICS) 17 Firms by Size 18 Unemployment Trends 19 Commuting 20 Agriculture (Business Income) 21 Relative Performance Comparisons Relative Performance Comparisons 22 Specialization 23 Stability 24 Performance Comparisons 25 Employment and Personal Income by Industry Employment and Income by Industry 26 Read This First 27 Employment (SIC) 28 Employment (NAICS) 29 Personal Income (SIC) 30 Personal Income (NAICS) 31 Wages and Employment 32 Data Sources Data Sources Methods Methods Glossary Glossary Table of Contents
  4. 4. Erie County, Pennsylvania Read This First There are two related systems for producing socioeconomic profiles: this one, the Economic Profile System (EPS) and the Economic Profile System Community (EPSC). For best results, use both profile systems. Below is a table highlighting how the two systems complement each other. EPS EPSC Geographic level of detail Nation Nation, Region, Division, States, Counties, Region (metro, non-metro, total) County Subdivisions, Places (Towns), Indian Reservations, Congressional Districts State (metro, non-metro, total) County Databases used Bureau of the Census (Census) Bureau of the Census, Decennial Census of County Business Patterns (CBP) Population and Housing, 1990, 2000. (1990 to 2000 comparisons at the county level only) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Economic Information System (REIS) Time series used Continuous data from 1970 to the most recent 2000. At the county level only 1990 to 2000 data available. comparisons can be made to show changes in age and household income distribution. Advantages Long-term trend analysis including trends in Age distribution, race, housing costs, housing employment and personal income by sector, the affordability, education rates, poverty. number of businesses establishments by type and size, and non-labor sources of income such as retirement and age-related income. Wages by Industry. Finer geographic detail. Counties are compared to states and nation. Key indicators of performance are benchmarked against the US medians. Disadvantages For some counties employment and personal Census data is never suppressed, but it is less income data may be suppressed for some useful than REIS data used in EPS to see long- industries and for some years. EPS includes a term trends by industry; it is only available only system for estimating these data gaps. for 2000 with limited comparisons to 1990. Important notes: 1) Total employment figures from the Regional Economic Information System (used in most of EPS) and the other sources can differ for the following reasons: - Census employment figures are reported by place of residence, while BEA REIS and the other sources are by place of work. - BEA REIS counts all jobs, regardless of whether part-time or whether a person has several jobs. For example, if a person has three part-time jobs, they count it as three jobs. - In some areas seasonality may play a role: the census is taken in the spring, a shoulder season for many “resort” areas, while BEA REIS data is an annual average. - BEA REIS includes sole proprietors and government employment while County Business Patterns and BLS Wages do not. - Earnings from BEA REIS on pages 14 and 25 include the value of benefits while the wages on page 32 from the BLS do not. 2) Tables and charts may be copied from Excel into any other program, like Word or PowerPoint: highlight the selection, choose copy from the edit menu, then open Word or PowerPoint and insert by choosing "Paste Special" in the Edit Menu. We recommend that you paste charts as a picture. 3) This profile also shows business cycles, represented as vertical bars on selected charts. 4) EPS is updated every year with the latest figures. 5) All income figures in this profile (except for the graph on the top of page 5) are adjusted for inflation reported in 2006 dollars. Introduction
  5. 5. Erie County, Pennsylvania Demographics, Employment and Income The following pages (2-25) contain long-term trends in demographics, employment and income. No disclosure restrictions occur in this section. In this section you will learn about: 1. Changes in population, age distribution, household income distribution and housing affordability. 2. Comparisons of the county to the state and the nation. 3. Employment and income by type: proprietors versus wage and salary. 4. Personal income by type: labor versus non-labor income. 5. The role of transfer payments. 6. How well does this area recover from recessions? 7. Trends in government employment. 8. Earnings per job versus per capita income. 9. Growth in firms by size and industry type. 10. Unemployment rates. 11. Cross-county flow of dollars via commuting. 12. Trends in agricultural businesses. Highlights - In Erie County, Pennsylvania: These highlights are based on how this area compares to the distribution of all of the counties in the United States. See the methodology section at the end for more information. • Population Growth (Annualized rate, 1970-2006) was somewhat slow. • Employment Growth (Annualized rate, 1970-2006) was somewhat slow. • Personal Income Growth (Adjusted for Inflation, Annualized rate, 1970-2006) was somewhat slow. • Non-labor Income Share of Total in 2006 was roughly average. • Median Age* was somewhat young. • Per Capita Income (2006) was roughly average. • Average Earnings Per Job (2006) was somewhat high. • Education Rate* (% of population 25 and over who have a college degree) was somewhat high. • Education Rate* (% of population 25 and over who have less than a high school diploma) was somewhat low. • Employment Specialization* was roughly average. • Rich-Poor Ratio* (for each household that made over $100K, how many households made less than $30K) was roughly average. Housing Affordability in 2000 (100 or above means that the median family can afford the median house)* was roughly average • affordable. • Government share of Total employment was somewhat low. • Unemployment Rate in 2007** was roughly average. * from 2000 US Census ** from Bureau of Labor Statistics Demographic, Employment and Income Trends Page 1
  6. 6. Erie County, Pennsylvania Population Trends Population Population Trends 285.0 280.0 279,686 • From 1970 to 2006 Thousands of People population grew by 15,371 people, a 6% 275.0 increase in population. 270.0 265.0 • At an annual rate, this 260.0 represents an increase of 0.2%. 255.0 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 The vertical shaded bars on the figure below represent the last five recession periods: November 1973 to March 1975; January 1980 to July 1980; July 1981 to November 1982; July 1990 to March 1991; March 2001 to November 2001. More information about recessions is available on the next page. Population Growth Compared to the State and the Nation Population Comparison Population Comparison • Over the last 36 years population growth in Erie 160 160 160 145 County, Pennsylvania 140 147 145 140 140 Population (Index 1970=100) has been the same as Population (Index 1970=100) Population (Index 1970=100) Pennsylvania and 120 slower than the nation. 120 120 106 105 100 106 105 106 105 100 100 8080 • Population growth is not 80 generally impacted by 6060 national recessions. 60 4040 40 2020 20 - - • Data is indexed by - - - dividing by the value in - 721 7 0 19 972 19 774 19 1 976 19 978 19 780 19 19982 19 984 19 986 19 19 8 0 19 992 19 19 94 19 6 78 20 00 20 2 04 066 0 761 3 6 821 9 841 82 85 901 88 1 9619 4 0220 0 3 19 1 97 98 99 9 99 0 20 0 1970 times 100. A 781 7 9 20 0 199 199 9 9419 9819 0020 0420 0620 9 9 19 19 701 741 801 861 881 921 value of 100 indicates 19 19 19 20 20 20 that it has not changed Recession Bars Recession Bars Erie County, Pennsylvania Erie County, Pennsylvania National Recessions Erie County, Pennsylvania since 1970. Pennsylvania Pennsylvania United States States United Pennsylvania United States Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30 Page 2 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
  7. 7. Erie County, Pennsylvania Population How well do we recover from recessions? An important indicator of economic performance is the ability to recover quickly from recessions. A recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research as “a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail sales.” The graph below shows how well we have recovered from the last five recessions. The recovery periods are from the end of one recession (the trough) to the beginning of the next recession (the peak). This type of graph is repeated throughout the profile to show how the area recovers from recessions compared to the state and the nation. See www.nber.org/cycles.html for more information about business cycles. Population Growth During Recent Recoveries - Annualized % Change from Trough to Following Peak • In the latest recovery (2001 to 2006), population growth in 1.4% 1.2% the United States (up 0.9%) 1.2% 1.1% outpaced Pennsylvania and 1.0% Erie County, Pennsylvania. 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% Annual % Change 0.8% • Similarly, in the last recovery (1991 to 2001), the United 0.6% States (up 1.2%) grew the fastest. 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% • In the recovery from 1982 to 1990, the United States (up 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.9%) grew the fastest. -0.2% -0.1% -0.2% -0.4% 1975 to 1980 1980 to 1981 1982 to 1990 1991 to 2001 2001 to 2006 Erie County, Pennsylvania - Population Pennsylvania - Population United States - Population Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends Page 3
  8. 8. Erie County, Pennsylvania Age and Gender (From EPSC) • The population has gotten older since Population by Age and Sex 1990. The median age Density in 2000 is 36.2 years, 40 - 54 (Baby Median (Pop. up from 32.9 years in Total Under 20 years Boom in 2000) 65 years and over Age per sq. 1990. Number Number Share NumberShare Number Share mi.) Total Population 2000 280,843 80,092 29% 60,412 22% 40,256 14% 36.2 350.2 • The largest age 1990 275,572 82,322 30% 44,422 16% 38,025 14% 32.9 343.6 category is 15 to 19 10 Yr. Change 5,271 (2,230) -1% 15,990 5% 2,231 1% 3.3 6.6 years old (22,404 10 Yr. % Change 2% -3% 36% 6% 10% 2% people or 8.0% of the total). 2000 Sex Breakout Male 136,967 41,067 30% 30,054 22% 16,109 12% 34.6 • Total Population in Female 143,876 39,025 27% 30,358 21% 24,147 17% 37.7 2000 was 280,843 Male/Female Split 49% / 51% 51% / 49% 50% / 50% 40% / 60% people, up 2% from 2000 Table SF1 - P12 & 1990 SF1 Table P05 & P12 275,572 in 1990. • The age group that has In the graphs below, changes in population by age are shown two ways. The "Change in Population" graph grown the fastest, as a illustrates how each age bracket has changed in the last 10 years. The "Change in Share" graph illustrates share of total, is 45 to how each category has changed as a share of total. Note that an age bracket can have an increase in 49 years , up 6,552 population while declining as a share of total. The "Change in Share" graph usually demonstrates how the people. Their share of baby boom has caused a demographic shift in the population (growth in the 40-60 age brackets). total rose by 2.2% Note: In aggregated profiles, medians are interpolated. 2000 Breakout Change in Population Change in Share of Total (90-2000) (90-2000) 85 years and over 3,539 1,353 1,572 80 to 84 years 3,985 2,248 1,853 75 to 79 years 5,474 3,689 1,872 70 to 74 years 5,854 4,412 35 65 and 69 years 5,295 4,407 3,031 60 and 64 years 5,624 5,078 2,300 55 to 59 years 6,951 6,503 1,968 50 to 54 years 8,608 8,577 5,307 45 to 49 years 10,583 10,420 6,552 40 to 44 years 11,167 11,057 4,131 35 to 39 years 10,286 9,997 1,315 30 to 34 years 8,976 9,171 4,202 25 to 29 years 8,419 8,659 3,164 20 to 24 years 10,090 10,329 1,707 15 to 19 years 11,020 11,384 103 10 to 14 years 9,881 10,370 802 5 to 9 years 9,747 10,250 396 Under 5 years 8,377 9,063 2,533 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% Thousands of People Thousands of People Thousands of People Male Female Change 1990-2000 Change in Share Source: Census 2000 and Census 1990 Page 4 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
  9. 9. Erie County, Pennsylvania Income Distribution & Housing (From EPSC) Income Distribution - Household Income Distribution (Not adjusted for inflation) Households Less than $10,000 16,948 10,749 • In 1999, for every household that made over $10,000 to $14,999 10,468 8,442 $100K, there were 6.4 $15,000 to $19,999 10,019 7,926 households that made $20,000 to $24,999 9,936 under $30K. 10 years 8,381 earlier, for every household $25,000 to $29,999 9,408 8,077 that made over $100K, 9,120 there were 24.7 households $30,000 to $34,999 7,253 that made under $30K. $35,000 to $39,999 7,575 7,014 $40,000 to $44,999 6,382 6,873 5,079 • Please note that the income distribution is not $45,000 to $49,999 5,818 $50,000 to $59,999 6,814 adjusted for inflation so 9,768 $60,000 to $74,999 5,006 some of the changes are 10,661 due to inflation. $75,000 to $99,999 2,602 1989 8,665 $100,000 to $124,999 914 1999 3,252 $125,000 to $149,999 443 1,308 $150,000 or more 938 2,301 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Thousands of Households Housing Affordability - Owner Occupied • The housing affordability Owner Occupied Housing Affordability 1990 2000 index is 186, which suggests that the median Specified owner-occ. housing units: Median value (2000 $'s) $ 70,619 $ 85,300 family can afford the median house. * % of median income necessary to buy the median house 14% 13% Income required to qualify for the median house $ 23,818 $ 24,103 • Housing has become more affordable in the last Housing Affordability Index: (100 or above means that the median family can afford the median house.)* 178 186 decade, from 178 in 1990 Universe: Specified owner-occupied housing units Census SF3 - H76 to 186 in 2000. Income in: 1989 1999 Per capita income $ 17,932 Median household income (Adj. for Inflation in 2000 $) $ 35,021 $ 36,627 Median family income (Adj.for Inflation in 2000 $) $ 42,352 $ 44,829 Universe: Total population, Households, Families Census SF3 - P82,P53,P77 * Note: The housing affordability figures assume a 20% down payment and that no more than 25% of a family's income goes to paying the mortgage. It is based on an interest rate of 10.01% in 1990 and 8.03% in 2000. Use this statistic as a comparative, rather than absolute, measure. Source: Census 2000 and Census 1990 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends Page 5
  10. 10. Erie County, Pennsylvania Employment Long term trend 180.0 165,688 160.0 • From 1970 to 2006, 48,278 new 140.0 Thousands of Jobs jobs were created. 120.0 100.0 80.0 • From 1970 to 2006, the majority of job growth, 75% of new jobs, was in 60.0 wage and salary employment 40.0 (people who work for someone else). 20.0 - 0.0 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 • Wage and salary employment 160.0 (people who work for someone 140.0 138,901 else) contributed 75% of new Thousands of Jobs employment from 1970 to 2006, 120.0 and 62% of new employment since 100.0 1995. 80.0 60.0 40.0 • In 1970, proprietors represented 20.0 26,787 12.6% of total employment; by 0.0 2006, they represented 16.2%. 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Wage and salary jobs Number of proprietors Wages and Salaries vs. Proprietors Changes from 1970 to 2006 % of New % of New New Employm New % of % of Employme Employm ent (95- Employ 1970 Total 1995 2006 Total nt (70-06) ent 06) ment Total full-time and part-time employment 117,410 154,222 165,688 48,278 11,466 100.0% Wage and salary jobs 102,644 87.4% 131,832 138,901 83.8% 36,257 75.1% 7,069 61.7% Number of proprietors 14,766 12.6% 22,390 26,787 16.2% 12,021 24.9% 4,397 38.3% Number of nonfarm proprietors 5/ 12,793 10.9% 20,850 25,299 15.3% 12,506 25.9% 4,449 38.8% Number of farm proprietors 1,973 1.7% 1,540 1,488 0.9% -485 NA -52 NA Proprietors include sole proprietorships, partnerships, and tax-exempt cooperatives. A sole proprietorship is an unincorporated business owned by a person. A partnership is an unincorporated business association of two or more partners. A tax-exempt cooperative is a nonprofit business organization that is collectively owned by its members. Wage and salary employment refers to employees. Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30 Page 6 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
  11. 11. Erie County, Pennsylvania Employment How well do we recover from recessions? • In the latest recovery (2001 to 2006), Employment During Recent Recoveries - Annualized % Change from Trough to Following Peak employment growth in the 4.0% United States (up 1.3%) 2.9% has outpaced 3.0% 2.5% Pennsylvania and Erie 1.8% 1.9% County, Pennsylvania. 2.0% 1.6% Annual % Change 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% • Similarly, in the last 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% recovery (1991 to 2001), the United States (up 0.0% 1.9%) grew the fastest. -1.0% -0.6% • In the recovery from 1982 -2.0% -2.1% to 1990, the United States (up 2.5%) grew the -3.0% fastest. Erie County, Pennsylvania - Employment1982 to 1990 1991 to 2001 2001 to 2006 1975 to 1980 1980 to 1981 Pennsylvania - Employment United States - Employment Job Growth Compared to the State and the Nation • Over the last 36 years population growth in Erie Jobs Compared to the State and the Nation 250 County, Pennsylvania has been faster than Pennsylvania and slower 200 195 than the nation. Jobs (Index 1970=100) • Some areas can experience employment 150 141 140 gains even during recessions. If so, check to see how much is due to 100 migration and population changes. 50 - 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 National Recessions Erie County, Pennsylvania Pennsylvania United States Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends Page 7
  12. 12. Erie County, Pennsylvania Personal Income Long term trend Total Personal Income • From 1970 to 2006, personalin 9.0 Income (Billions of 2006 $) income added $2,730 million real terms. 8.0 8,046 7.0 6.0 • The annualized growth rate was 1.2%. 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 - 0.0 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Importance of Proprietors 5.0 Income (Billions of 2006 $) • In the last 36 years, wage and salary disbursements grew at an 4.5 4,526 4.0 annual rate of 0.6%, outpacing 3.5 proprietors' income which was 3.0 roughly unchanged. 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 434 0.0 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Wage and salary disbursements Proprietors' income Wages and Salaries vs. Proprietors 1970 1995 2006 New % of % of % of % of Income New All income in millions of 2006 dollars 1970 Labor 1995 Labor 2006 Labor 70-06 Income Labor Sources 4,167 100% 4,972 100% 5,156 100% 989 100.0% Wage and salary disbursements 3,632 87% 4,300 86% 4,526 88% 894 90.4% Proprietors' income 485 12% 553 11% 434 8% (51) NA Nonfarm proprietors' income 456 11% 548 11% 432 8% (24) NA Farm proprietors' income 29 1% 5 0% 2 0% (27) NA Wage and salary is monetary remuneration of employees, including employee contributions to certain deferred compensation programs, such as 401(K) plans. Proprietors' income includes income from sole proprietorships, partnerships and tax-exempt cooperatives. A sole proprietorship is an unincorporated business owned by a person. A partnership is an unincorporated business association of two or more partners. A tax- exempt cooperative is a nonprofit business organization that is collectively owned by its members. Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA05N and CA30 Page 8 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
  13. 13. Erie County, Pennsylvania Proprietors Definitions: “Proprietors” refers to employment and income from sole proprietorships, partnerships, and tax-exempt cooperatives. “Wage and salary” refers to employees; people who work for someone else. Are proprietors an important indicator of economic health? Growth of proprietor employment and income can be a healthy sign that opportunities for entrepreneurship exist. Another way to gauge the health of small business growth is to look at changes in businesses by type and size of establishment (pages 16-18). Growth of proprietors can also mean that a rising number of people in the community want to (or need to) have side jobs in addition to their wage and salary jobs. When this is the case, earnings from second jobs can pull down average wages. To see if this is a sign of stress, look for other potential stress indictors in this profile: unemployment rates over time and changes in earnings per job. Proprietors' Share of Total (Income vs. Employment) 18% • In 2006, proprietors' share of total employment (16%) was higher 16% 16% than proprietors' share of total 14% income (5%) . Share of Total 12% • From 1970 to 2006, proprietors' income share of total fell by 10% 8% 40.9%, while proprietors' employment share of total grew 6% 5% by 28.6%. 4% 2% 0% 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 How are Proprietors Doing? Employment Income • From 1970 to 2006, average wage and salary disbursements 40.0 fell at an annualized rate of 0.2% (adjusted for inflation), declining 35.0 slower than average nonfarm 32,582 Thousands of 2006 $ proprietors' income which fell by 30.0 2.0%. 25.0 • In 2006, average wage and salary disbursements were 20.0 17,059 $32,582 (adjusted for inflation), 15.0 more than average nonfarm 10.0 proprietors' income ($17,059). 5.0 • In 1970, it was the other way around. Average nonfarm 0.0 proprietors' income was $35,639 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 (adjusted for inflation), more than average wage and salary disbursements ($35,384). Average wage and salary disbursements • If these shares vary widely, it suggests that proprietors and Average nonfarm proprietors' income wage earners have different earnings. Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends Page 9
  14. 14. Erie County, Pennsylvania Non-labor Income The term "Non-Labor Income" is also referred to by some economists as "Non-Earnings Income". It consists of: • Dividends, Interest and Rent (collectively often referred to as money earned from investments). • Transfer Payments (payments from governments to individuals such as Medicare, Social Security, unemployment compensation, disability insurance payments and welfare). See the next page for a breakout of transfer payments. Non-labor Income Share of Total Income 40% 36% • In the last 36 years, non- labor sources grew at an 35% annual rate of 2.6%, 30% outpacing labor sources Percent of Total Income which grew at a 0.6% rate. 25% • 35.9% of total personal income in 2006 was from 20% non-labor sources. 15% 10% • 63.8% of new income from 1970 to 2006 was from non-labor sources. 5% 0% 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Non-labor income under estimates retirement income because it does not include pensions (401Ks). Labor vs. Non-Labor 1970 1995 2006 New % of % Chg % Chg % of % of % of Income New Ann. Rate Ann. Rate All income in millions of 2006 dollars 1970 Total 1995 Total 2006 Total 70-06 Income 70-06 95-06 Total Personal Income 5,316 100% 7,585 100% 8,046 100% 2,730 100.0% 1.2% 0.5% Labor Sources 4,167 78% 4,972 66% 5,156 64% 989 36.2% 0.6% 0.3% Non-Labor Sources 1,149 22% 2,613 34% 2,889 36% 1,740 63.8% 2.6% 0.9% Dividends, interest, and rent 630 12% 1,277 17% 1,122 14% 492 18.0% 1.6% -1.2% Personal current transfer receipts 519 10% 1,336 18% 1,767 22% 1,249 45.7% 3.5% 2.6% Percentages do not add to 100 because of adjustments made by BEA, such as residence, social security, and others. Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30 Page 10 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
  15. 15. Erie County, Pennsylvania Transfer Payments Components of Transfer Payments New % of % of % of Payments New Total Total 1970 to Pay- Change in Share of All figures in millions of 2006 dollars 1970 TP 2006 TP 2006 ments Total (1970 - 2006) Total transfer payments 519.0 1,767.5 1,248.5 Government payments to individuals 464.4 89% 1,703.7 96% 1,239.3 99.3% Retirement & disab. insurance benefit payments 255.3 49% 649.9 37% 394.6 31.6% Medical payments 62.6 12% 775.7 44% 713.1 57.1% Income maintenance benefit payments ("welfare") 73.3 14% 178.5 10% 105.2 8.4% Unemployment insurance benefit payments 21.7 4% 48.0 3% 26.4 2.1% Veterans benefit payments 49.5 10% 31.7 2% (17.8) NA Federal educ. & trng. asst. pay. (excl. vets) 2.0 0.4% 19.3 1.1% 17.3 1.4% Other payments to individuals 0.1 0.0% 0.5 0.0% 0.4 0.0% Payments to nonprofit institutions * 40.1 8% 50.2 3% 10.2 0.8% Business payments to individuals 14.5 3% 13.5 1% (1.0) NA -50% 0% 50% Age-related (Retirement, Disability & Medicare) 266.0 51% 1,031.2 58% 765.2 61.3% Trends in Non-Labor Income by Type • The largestIncome are from Non-Labor components of Trends in Non Labor Income Dividends, Interest & Rent 1,600.0 (i.e., money earned from past 1,400.0 investments). 1,200.0 Millions of 2006 $ 1,122 1,031 1,000.0 • In 2006 welfare represented 10.1% of transfer payments, 800.0 and 2.2% of total personal income. This is down from 600.0 1970 and down slightly from 400.0 1980. 200.0 179 0.0 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 Components of Transfer 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Payments Dividends, Interest & Rent Age-related (Retirement, Disability & Medicare) • In 2006, 58% of Transfer Payments were from age- Income Maintenance (Welfare) related sources (retirement, disability, insurance payments, and Medicare), while 10.1% was from welfare. Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA35 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends Page 11

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